2014年南京青奥会开幕式日降水过程数值模拟研究

为评估2014年南京青奥会开幕式日的人工催化消减雨作业效果,利用中尺度数值模式WRF对当日的云降水过程和催化作业开展数值模拟。本文系第一部分工作。首先对常用的八种云微物理方案的降水模拟效果进行评估,进一步选取Thompson和Milbrandt-Yau两个微物理方案对此次降水过程的云系结构和降水形成机制进行对比分析。模拟结果表明,采用Thompson和Milbrandt-Yau两个方案模拟的云系结构和降水形成的微物理机制是一致的。开幕式当天影响奥体场馆的降水由弱的积层混合云系产生,降水过程以冰相微物理过程为主。雪的融化是雨水的主要源项,Thompson方案中雪的融化对雨水的贡献率为72%,Milbrandt-Yau方案为60%,蒸发则是雨水的主要汇项,Thompson方案中蒸发对雨水的消耗率达94%,Milbrandt-Yau方案为95.6%。     

Modelling considerations for examining the mean and unsteady flow in a simple urban-type street canyon

With very few exceptions, just about all limited area models (LAMs) used in operational NWP and regional climate modeling use the Davies (Q J R Meteorol Soc 102:405–418, 1976) relaxation lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), even though they make no effort to respect the basic mathematics of the problem. While in the early stages of the primitive equation LAM development in the seventies numerous schemes have been proposed and tested, LAM communities have eventually for the most part settled on the relaxation LBCs with few questions asked. An exception is the Eta model used extensively at NCEP and several other centers, in which the Mesinger (Contrib Atmos Phys 50:200–210, 1977) LBCs are used, designed and based on knowledge available before the introduction of the relaxation scheme. They prescribe variables along the outermost row of grid points only; all of them at the inflow points and one less at the outflow points where the tangential velocity components are extrapolated from inside of the model domain. Additional schemes are in place to suppress separation of gravity-wave solutions on C-subgrids of the model’s E-grid. A recent paper of Veljovic et al. (Meteor Zeitschrift 19:237–246, 2010) included three 32-day forecasts done with both the Eta and the relaxation LBCs and the comparison of some of their verification results. Here we extend this experiment by three additional forecasts to arrive at an ensemble of six members run with both schemes, and present a more complete discussion of results. We in addition show results of one of these forecasts in which the linear change of relaxation coefficients was replaced by the change following the recommendation of Lehmann (Meteorol Atmos Phys 52:1–14, 1993). We feel that the results of our two verification schemes strongly suggest the advantage of the Eta over the conventional relaxation scheme, thereby raising doubts as to the justification for its use.     

Spatial patterns and trends of daily rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during the southwest and northeast monsoons: 1975–2004

Model precipitation can be produced implicitly through convective parameterization schemes or explicitly through cloud microphysics schemes. These two precipitation production schemes control the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and consequently can yield distinct vertical profiles of heating and moistening in the atmosphere. The partition between implicit and explicit precipitation can be different as the model changes resolutions. Within the range of mesoscale resolutions (about 20 km) and cumulus scale, hybrid solutions are suggested, in which cumulus convection parameterization is acting together with the explicit form of representation. In this work, it is proposed that, as resolution increases, the convective scheme should convert less condensed water into precipitation. Part of the condensed water is made available to the cloud microphysics scheme and another part evaporates. At grid sizes smaller than 3 km, the convective scheme is still active in removing convective instability, but precipitation is produced by cloud microphysics. The Eta model version using KF cumulus parameterization was applied in this study. To evaluate the quantitative precipitation forecast, the Eta model with the KF scheme was used to simulate precipitation associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and Cold Front (CF) events. Integrations with increasing horizontal resolutions were carried out for up to 5 days for the SACZ cases and up to 2 days for the CF cases. The precipitation partition showed that most of precipitation was generated by the implicit scheme. As the grid size decreased, the implicit precipitation increased and the explicit decreased. However, as model horizontal resolution increases, it is expected that precipitation be represented more explicitly. In the KF scheme, the fraction of liquid water or ice, generated by the scheme, which is converted into rain or snow is controlled by a parameter S ₁. An additional parameter was introduced into KF scheme and the parameter acts to evaporate a fraction of liquid water or ice left in the model grid by S ₁ and return moisture to the resolved scale. An F parameter was introduced to combine the effects of S ₁ and S ₂ parameters. The F parameter gives a measure of the conversion of cloud liquid water or ice to convective precipitation. A function dependent on the horizontal resolution was introduced into the KF scheme to influence the implicit and explicit precipitation partition. The explicit precipitation increased with model resolution. This function reduced the positive precipitation bias at all thresholds and for the studied weather systems. With increased horizontal resolution, the maximum precipitation area was better positioned and the total precipitation became closer to observations. Skill scores for all events at different forecast ranges showed precipitation forecast improvement with the inclusion of the function F.     

用WRF模式中不同云微物理参数化方案对华南一次暴雨过程的数值模拟和性能分析

本文使用中尺度数值模式WRFV3.4中的8种不同云微物理过程参数化方案,模拟2010年5月6～7日华南一次暴雨事件,探讨不同云微物理方案对华南暴雨模拟的影响。结果表明:不同云微物理方案对不同量级降水模拟效果总体较好。WSM3方案对小到大雨和大暴雨的模拟效果最好,对暴雨的模拟最差;WDM5方案对暴雨模拟效果最好。结合TS评分和误差分析结果,整体效果最好的是WSM5方案,最差的是Lin方案。对于同一云微物理参数化方案,不同分辨率的降水模拟结果差异不大,但同一分辨率的不同云微物理参数化方案的降水结果差异较大,这说明云微物理过程比模式分辨率对暴雨模拟的影响更大。     

Wintertime climatic trends in the western Himalayas

Northern Indian rivers are primarily fed by wintertime (December, January, February—DJF) precipitation, in the form of snow—yielded by eastward moving synoptic weather systems called Western Disturbances (WDs), over the western Himalayas (WH). This accumulated snow melts during ablation period. In the context of today’s warming atmosphere, it is imperative to study the changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns over the WH to assess the impact of global warming on climatic conditions of the region. Keeping that in mind, observational analysis of temperature and precipitation fields is planned. In the present study various climatic indices are analyzed based on wintertime (DJF) data of 30?years (1975–2006) obtained from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), India. Results indicate enhancement in the surface air temperature across the WH. Percent number of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) during 1975–2006 over the WH. Further analysis of precipitation reveals slightly decreasing but inconsistent trends.     

不同云微物理方案对“7.21”特大暴雨模拟的对比试验

利用中尺度数值模式WRF v3.5.1中的17种不同云微物理过程参数化方案,对2012年7月21—22日北京特大暴雨过程进行了对比试验。模拟结果表明:不同云微物理方案对不同量级降水的模拟效果各有优势。NSSL 1-momlfo方案对中雨和大暴雨两个等级降水的模拟效果最好,降水中心值最接近实况;Eta(Ferrier)和Kessler方案分别对大雨和暴雨等级降水的模拟效果最好。总体上,能够较好地模拟出本次特大暴雨过程的方案依次为:NSSL 1-mom、NSSL 1-momlfo和Milbrandt 2-mom方案,而WDM6方案的模拟效果最差。云中水成物演变特征表明,模拟较好的方案中液态水、云冰和霰的含量较多,且随时间演变与地面降水强度的变化相一致。另外,模拟较好的方案中冰相粒子多,过冷水的范围大、含量高,有利于各相态粒子相互转化,促进冰相过程发展,致使降水量增多。     

云微物理过程对台风数值模拟的影响

将中国气象科学研究院（CAMS）混合双参数云微物理方案用于中尺度天气模式WRF,开展了对2013年超强台风天兔（1319）的模拟,通过与台风最佳路径、强度及热带降雨测量卫星（TRMM）资料对比,分析CAMS云微物理方案在模拟台风中的适用性及云微物理过程对模拟台风天兔的影响机制。设计了3组敏感性试验:修改雪粒子质量和落速系数（EXP1）,采用海洋性云滴参数（EXP2）,同时修改雪粒子质量和落速系数并采用海洋性云滴参数（EXP3）。结果表明:EXP1和EXP3由于霰碰并雪速率的增加及减小的雪下落通量,导致雪含量显著降低,同时也减少了整体冰相物的含量;EXP2和EXP3模拟的台风眼区对流有效位能快速减小,再现了前期台风的快速增强过程,路径偏差也最小;各试验模拟的小时降水率总体偏强,EXP3的降水空间分布与实况更接近,明显降低雪粒子含量,并一定程度上改善模拟的台风路径、强度及降水分布等。该结果不但可为改进适用于台风的云微物理参数化方案提供思路,也可加深云微物理过程对台风影响的认识。     

A mass-flux cumulus parameterization scheme for large-scale models: description and test with observations

A simple mass-flux cumulus parameterization scheme suitable for large-scale atmospheric models is presented. The scheme is based on a bulk-cloud approach and has the following properties: (1) Deep convection is launched at the level of maximum moist static energy above the top of the boundary layer. It is triggered if there is positive convective available potential energy (CAPE) and relative humidity of the air at the lifting level of convection cloud is greater than 75%; (2) Convective updrafts for mass, dry static energy, moisture, cloud liquid water and momentum are parameterized by a one-dimensional entrainment/detrainment bulk-cloud model. The lateral entrainment of the environmental air into the unstable ascending parcel before it rises to the lifting condensation level is considered. The entrainment/detrainment amount for the updraft cloud parcel is separately determined according to the increase/decrease of updraft parcel mass with altitude, and the mass change for the adiabatic ascent cloud parcel with altitude is derived from a total energy conservation equation of the whole adiabatic system in which involves the updraft cloud parcel and the environment; (3) The convective downdraft is assumed saturated and originated from the level of minimum environmental saturated equivalent potential temperature within the updraft cloud; (4) The mass flux at the base of convective cloud is determined by a closure scheme suggested by Zhang (J Geophys Res 107(D14), doi:10.1029/2001JD001005, 2002) in which the increase/decrease of CAPE due to changes of the thermodynamic states in the free troposphere resulting from convection approximately balances the decrease/increase resulting from large-scale processes. Evaluation of the proposed convection scheme is performed by using a single column model (SCM) forced by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s (ARM) summer 1995 and 1997 Intensive Observing Period (IOP) observations, and field observations from the Global Atmospheric Research Program’s Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) and the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). The SCM can generally capture the convective events and produce a realistic timing of most events of intense precipitation although there are some biases in the strength of simulated precipitation.     

北京一次短时局地大暴雨过程的特征及对云物理方案的敏感性数值模拟试验

云物理过程是云和降水形成的重要环节。本文针对2011年6月23日发生在北京地区的一次大暴雨过程进行了云降水与天气特征分析,并开展了WRF模式中10种不同云微物理方案对此次暴雨强度、落区和发生时间的敏感性数值模拟试验。研究结果表明,此次大暴雨是由多单体组织、合并形成深厚的中尺度对流系统,并具有明显的短时局地特征和有利的高低空、高低纬度大中尺度天气环流形势及强烈的水汽输送条件。暴雨强度、落区和发生时间的数值模拟结果对云物理方案非常敏感。不同云物理方案对累积降水量≥50 mm和≥100 mm的暴雨模拟的ETS评分显示,只有Thompson方案对此暴雨量级的评分均为正,其他方案的ETS评分均不理想,特别是对累积降水量≥100 mm的大暴雨模拟。在小时暴雨强度和发生时间方面,Thompson方案模拟效果也较好,其次是Lin方案和WSM6方案;对区域累积最大降水量和落区的模拟方面,Thompson方案和Morrison方案模拟的最大累积降水量更接近观测值,但在落区方面,一些具有完整云物理过程的单参数方案（Lin方案、WSM6方案）模拟效果较好,但模拟的最大降水量偏小。针对暖雨的双参数方案WDM6对区域平均降水模拟较好,但对暴雨极端降水模拟较差。对造成差异的原因分析表明,不同云物理方案的差异主要体现在雪和霰的参数化方面,由于采用的粒子谱分布、密度和末速度不同,导致云中粒子间的碰并和形成过程不同,大部分云物理方案模拟的霰含量高,雪含量低。这种云微物理过程的差异会导致云动力过程的反馈作用出现明显不同,但这种反馈作用的差异主要体现在降水粒子对上升气流的拖曳作用不同。尽管云中相变潜热过程对云动力过程具有很重要的影响,但不同云物理方案在相变潜热过程和温度廓线分布方面造成的差异并不明显。因此,云物理方案中考虑合理的粒子谱分布、形态和密度变化,有利于提高暴雨的模拟效果。     

Key issues in developing numerical models for artificial weather modification

The scientific foundation of artificial weather modification is meso- and small-scale dynamics and cloud–precipitation microphysics. Artificial weather modification requires the realistic coupling of weather patterns, dynamical processes, and microphysical processes. Now that numerical models with weather dynamical characteristics have been widely applied to artificial weather modification, several key points that should not be neglected when developing numerical models for artificial weather modification are proposed in this paper, including the dynamical equations, model resolution, cloud–precipitation microphysical processes, numerical computation method, and initial and boundary conditions. Based on several examples, approaches are offered to deal with the problems that exist in these areas.     

不同云微物理方案对青藏高原一次强降水的模拟影响分析

利用WRF模式中三种云微物理参数化方案(Lin、Eta和WSM6)对青藏高原一次强降水过程进行模拟试验,将模拟降水结果与实测资料进行对比,以评估不同云微物理参数化方案对该区域降水过程的模拟性能。结果表明:三种方案均能够模拟出此次降水天气过程的发生,但在主要降水区域和降水强度两方面仍与实测资料存在偏差;在水凝物方面,三种方案对冰粒子的模拟较接近,Lin和WSM6方案模拟的雪粒子差异较大,但霰粒子无明显差异。进一步对比分析了Lin和WSM6方案模拟的云微物理转化过程,结果表明:这两种方案都表现出了霰向雨水转化的特点。在Lin方案中,通过水汽向霰粒子凝华、霰碰并水汽凝华生成的雪粒子以及霰碰并云水这三种过程生成的霰粒子最终融化为雨水。而在WSM6方案中,一方面水汽凝结成云水,云水被雪和霰粒子碰并收集转化为霰,之后霰融化为雨水;另一方面水汽凝华为冰粒子,一部分冰转化为雪,雪直接融化为雨水或转化为霰融化为雨水,另一部分冰转化为霰,霰融化为雨水。      

云滴数浓度影响混合型层状云降水的数值模拟

使用耦合了Morrison双参数微物理方案的中尺度WRF模式V2．2,对2008年1月25-29日发生在我国南方的冰雪天气过程进行了数值试验。在模式准确再现了此次天气过程形势演变特点的基础上,对模式微物理方案中云滴数浓度影响累积降水量的情况进行了敏感性试验,发现云滴数浓度对降水量的影响是复杂和非线性的。对此次天气过程中的微物理量进行了详细的分析,并从各种水成物粒子的发展演变上,讨论了云滴数浓度的增加在暖云和冷云两种降水机制上对降水产生的不同影响。结果表明,云滴数浓度越大,云水混合比就越大,云滴的尺度越小。雨滴对不同云滴数浓度的响应与云滴的情况相反,随着云滴数浓度的增加,雨滴数浓度减小,雨水也减少,暖云降水过程受到了抑制;冰晶和雪晶的数浓度的演变过程没有明显变化,而冰晶和雪晶的混合比是相应增加的,冷云降水过程得到了一定程度的增强。从本文模拟的个例来看,设置不同云滴数浓度所得到的总累计降水量的差异在1％以内。总的来说,增加云滴数浓度,降水量会减少。从比例上来看,增加云滴数浓度对暖云降水过程的抑制作用比对冷云降水过程的增强作用更为显著,但是在本文模拟的个例中,冷云降水过程占主导地位,减少的降水和增加的降水的绝对值在同一个量级上并且数值相近,它们相互抵消后得到的结果是降水量变化的绝对值大大减小了,这解释了增加云滴数浓度后模拟的总累积降水量变化不明显的原因。     

Critical issues for the calculation of the social cost of CO2: why the estimates from PAGE09 are higher than those from PAGE2002

PAGE09 is an updated version of the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model (Hope 2011a). The default PAGE09 model gives a mean estimate of the social cost of CO₂ (SCCO₂) of $106 per tonne of CO₂, compared to $81 from the PAGE2002 model used in the Stern review (Stern 2007). The increase is the net result of several improvements that have been incorporated into the PAGE09 model in response to the critical debate around the Stern review: the adoption of the A1B socio-economic scenario, rather than A2 whose population assumptions are now thought to be implausible; the use of ranges for the two components of the discount rate, rather than the single values used in the Stern review; a distribution for the climate sensitivity that is consistent with the latest estimates from IPCC 2007a; less adaptation than in PAGE2002, particularly in the economic sector, which was criticised for possibly being over-optimistic; and a more theoretically-justified basis of valuation that gives results appropriate to a representative agent from the focus region, the EU. The effect of each of these adjustments is quantified and explained.     

Non-isothermal scavenging of highly soluble gaseous pollutants by rain in the atmosphere with non-uniform vertical concentration and temperature distributions

We suggest a non-isothermal one-dimensional model of precipitation scavenging of highly soluble gaseous pollutants in inhomogeneous atmosphere. When gradients of soluble trace gases’ concentrations and temperature in the atmosphere are small, scavenging of gaseous pollutants is governed by two linear wave equations that describe propagation of a scavenging and temperature waves in one direction. If wash-down front velocity is much larger than the velocity of the temperature front, scavenging is determined by propagating scavenging front in the atmosphere with inhomogeneous temperature distribution. We solved the derived equation by the method of characteristics and determined scavenging coefficient and the rates of precipitation scavenging for wet removal of sulfur dioxide using measured initial distributions of trace gases and temperature in the atmosphere. It is shown that in the case of exponential initial distribution of soluble trace gases and linear temperature distribution in the atmosphere, scavenging coefficient in the region between the ground and the position of a scavenging front is proportional to rainfall rate, solubility parameter in the under-cloud region, adjacent to a bottom of a cloud and to the growth constant in the formula for the initial profile of a soluble trace gas in the atmosphere. The derived formula yields the same value of scavenging coefficient for sulfur dioxide scavenging by rain as field estimates presented by McMahon and Denison (Atmos Environ 13:571–585, 1979). It is demonstrated that in the case when the altitude variation of temperature in the atmosphere is determined by the environmental lapse rate, scavenging coefficient increases with height in the region between the scavenging front and the ground. In the case when altitude temperature variation in the atmosphere is determined by temperature inversion, scavenging coefficient decreases with height in a region between the scavenging front and the ground. Theoretical predictions of the value of the scavenging coefficient for sulfur dioxide washout by rain and of the dependence of the magnitude of the scavenging coefficient on rain intensity are in good agreements with the atmospheric measurements of Martin (Atmos Environ 18:1955–1961, 1984).     

Impact of Different Cloud Microphysics Parameterization Schemes on Typhoon Intensity and Structure

The impact of different cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on the intensity and structure of the Super-strong Typhoon Rammasun (1409) in 2014 is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.4 with eight cloud microphysics parameterization schemes. Results indicate that the uncertainty of cloud microphysics schemes results in typhoon forecast uncertainties, which increase with forecast time. Typhoon forecast uncertainty primarily affects intensity predictions, with significant differences in predicted typhoon intensity using the various cloud microphysics schemes. Typhoon forecast uncertainty also affects the predicted typhoon structure. Greater typhoon intensity is accompanied by smaller vortex width, tighter vortex structure, stronger wind in the middle and lower troposphere, greater height of the strong wind region, smaller thickness of the eyewall and the outward extension of the eyewall, and a warmer warm core at upper levels of the eye. The differences among the various cloud microphysics schemes lead to the different amounts and distributions of water vapor and hydrometeors in clouds. Different hydrometeors have different vertical distributions. In the radial direction, the maxima for the various hydrometeors forecast by a single cloud microphysics scheme are collocated with each other and with the center of maximum precipitation. When the hydrometeor concentration is high and hydrometeors exist at lower altitudes, more precipitation often occurs. Both the vertical and horizontal winds are the strongest at the location of maximum precipitation. Results also indicate that typhoon intensities forecast by cloud microphysics schemes containing graupel processes are noticeably greater than those forecast by schemes without graupel processes. Among the eight cloud microphysics schemes investigated, typhoon intensity forecasts using the WRF Single-Moment 6-class and Thompson schemes are the most accurate.     

SST and ice sheet impacts on the MIS–13 climate

As a first qualitative assessment tool, LOVECLIM has been used to investigate the interactions between insolation, ice sheets and the East Asian Monsoon at the Marine Isotopic Stage 13 (MIS–13) in work by Yin et?al. (Clim Past 4:79–90, 2008, Clim Past 5:229–243, 2009). The results are in need of validation with a more sophisticated model, which is done in this work with the ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model. As in the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity, LOVECLIM, ARPEGE shows that the northern hemispheric high insolation in summer leads to strong MIS–13 monsoon precipitation. Data from the Chinese Loess Plateau indicate that MIS–13 was locally a warm and humid period (Guo et?al. in Clim Past 5:21–31, 2009; Yin and Guo in Chin Sci Bull 51(2):213–220, 2006). This is confirmed by these General Circulation Model (GCM) results, where the MIS–13 climate is found to be hotter and more humid both in the presence and absence of any added ice sheets. LOVECLIM found that the combined effects of the ice sheets and their accompanying SSTs contribute to more precipitation in eastern China, whilst in ARPEGE the impact is significant in northeastern China. Nonetheless the results of ARPEGE confirm the counter-intuitive results of LOVECLIM where ice sheets contribute to enhance monsoon precipitation. This happens through a topography induced wave propagating through Eurasia with an ascending branch over northeastern China. A feature which is also seen in LOVECLIM. The SST forcing in ARPEGE results in a strong zonal temperature gradient between the North Atlantic and east Eurasia, which in turn triggers an atmospheric gravity wave. This wave induces a blocking Okhotskian high, preventing the northwards penetration of the Meiyu monsoon front. The synergism between the ice sheets and SST is found through the factor separation method, yielding an increase in the Meiyu precipitation, though a reduction of the Changma precipitation. The synergism between the ice sheets and SST play a non-negligible role and should be taken into consideration in GCM studies. Preliminary fully coupled AOGCM results presented here further substantiate the finding of stronger MIS–13 monsoons and a reinforcement from ice sheets. This work increases our understanding of the signals found in the paleo-observations and the dynamics of the complex East Asian Summer Monsoon.     

Simulation of the influence of aerosol particle characteristics on clouds and precipitation with LM-SPECS: Model description and first results

The novel model system LM-SPECS is presented combining a spectral bin microphysics scheme and the three-dimensional Lokalmodell (LM, today called COSMO) of the German Weather Service (“Deutscher Wetterdienst”). The model is designed to investigate in detail the interaction of atmospheric aerosol particles, clouds and precipitation. The microphysics scheme includes a combined spectrum of wetted aerosols, cloud droplets and rain drops. As a first application of the model, sensitivity studies on an artificial deep convective cloud were done. The results produced by LM-SPECS are satisfying. The studies show, e.g., that a diminished initial particle number leads to larger cloud droplets and thus to a higher efficiency of coalescence. This results in a larger amount of precipitation. Furthermore, studies on mixed phase clouds show the influence of varying ice nuclei, such as bacteria, kaolinite and soot, on cloud properties. Here, a more effective freezing leads to an increased number of ice particles with smaller radii. The results point to the importance of a detailed knowledge of the underlying microphysical processes in order to understand the formation of clouds and precipitation more accurately. Though to date the model was applied to artificial cases only, the use of the mesoscale weather model allows for more complex realistic cases which are subject to further studies.     

The influence of precipitation intensity growth on the urban drainage systems designing

For 50 years of long observation period (1960–2009), on a high level of statistical significance (95 %), a decreasing trend of annual precipitation amounts and an increasing trend of the number of rainy days during the year (64 %) were found. For the seasonal changes (V–X), similarly, there was found a statistically significant (94 %) decreasing precipitation amount trend and an increasing trend of the number of rainy days (50 %). As far as the intensity of maximum precipitation is concerned, a very statistically significant increasing trend (95 %) was found. Taking as the basis, the model for a trend, defined for the period of 1960–2009, the increase of weighted average interval values of maximum precipitation amounts (h?≥?0.75?t ^0.5) in the year 2059 was estimated to be about 26 %, in comparison with the starting year 1960. An increasing trend of maximum precipitation frequency in Wroc?aw was also proved. To a safe sewerage systems designing in Wroc?aw according to current standards (EN 752 2008; DWA-A118 2006), the precipitation frequency to the simulations of excessive accumulation occurrences to the land level should be changed.     

偏振雷达在人工影响天气工作中的应用潜力

在人工影响天气作业时，实时了解被作业云中的水成物粒子大小、相态、密谋、运动等参数及其微物理变化过程是非常重要的。这些微观参量和微物理过程揭示了云降水发展的不同阶段，对于及时正确地评估云增水及消雹潜力，确定是否适合人工影响作业以及如何正确选择作业时机、作业部位和作业量，与了解云的宏观特征一样是至关重要的，它是提高作业效率的基础。本文借助国内外偏振雷达应用研究中成功的范例，探讨了偏振雷达在人工影响天气方面的应用问题。特别是介绍了不同偏振雷达在识别云内水成物粒子的相态、密度，观测云内水成物粒子微物理变化过程，以及被作业云的作业效果评估等方面的方法。这些方法对于发展我国偏振雷达技术，促进偏振雷达在人工影响天气方面的应用和提高我国人工影响天气工作水平方面有很好的参考与借鉴作用。     

Simulation of the influence of aerosol particle characteristics on clouds and precipitation with LM-SPECS: Model description and first results

The novel model system LM-SPECS is presented combining a spectral bin microphysics scheme and the three-dimensional Lokalmodell (LM, today called COSMO) of the German Weather Service (“Deutscher Wetterdienst”). The model is designed to investigate in detail the interaction of atmospheric aerosol particles, clouds and precipitation. The microphysics scheme includes a combined spectrum of wetted aerosols, cloud droplets and rain drops. As a first application of the model, sensitivity studies on an artificial deep convective cloud were done. The results produced by LM-SPECS are satisfying. The studies show, e.g., that a diminished initial particle number leads to larger cloud droplets and thus to a higher efficiency of coalescence. This results in a larger amount of precipitation. Furthermore, studies on mixed phase clouds show the influence of varying ice nuclei, such as bacteria, kaolinite and soot, on cloud properties. Here, a more effective freezing leads to an increased number of ice particles with smaller radii. The results point to the importance of a detailed knowledge of the underlying microphysical processes in order to understand the formation of clouds and precipitation more accurately. Though to date the model was applied to artificial cases only, the use of the mesoscale weather model allows for more complex realistic cases which are subject to further studies.