有地形模式中气压梯度力误差扣除法

：在现有有地形的数值模式中，陡峭地形区气压梯度力的计算存在一个普遍问题，即计算精度较高的格式比较繁琐而费时，简单省时的格式又不精确和不稳定。为解决这个问题，作者等在最近提出了一种方法，称为气压梯度力的误差扣除法。该方法假定：气压梯度力的计算误差主要来自地形而与气压形势关系较小。用理想场对该方法进行检验后表明，这一方法是成功的。本文则用气候模式对作者提出的有地形数值模式中气压梯度力的误差扣除法进行了模拟检验。所用模式是作者等使用多年的Ｐ－混合坐标系５层模式，选用了四种气压梯度力的计算格式，即ＤＤＤ格式、Ｃｏｒｂｙ格式、平均温度格式和经典中央差格式。比较了这四种格式在有无误差扣除时的模拟结果，发现：对于计算精度较高的格式，如ＤＤＤ格式、Ｃｏｒｂｙ格式及平均温度格式，有无误差扣除的结果相差不大，但误差扣除法仍可在一定程度上改善模拟效果。对于计算精度差的格式，如经典中央差格式，在无误差扣除时计算不稳定，得不到模拟结果，进行误差扣除后，从根本上提高了其计算精度，因而也提高了计算的稳定性，达到了较满意的模拟效果。而且与其它格式的模拟结果相当接近。本文提出的误差扣除法可同时用于格点模式和谱模式。     

高度场垂直插值方法的数值预报试验

本文假设温度场与气压对数成逐段线性分布。在有地形时,气压梯度力项采用在P坐标系计算的方法,即回插法。分别用理想地形和温压场分布及两个实例检验了高度场垂直插值不同方法的误差。结果表明,假设高度场随气压对数平方成逐段线性分布的方法,可以简化计算,节省机时,计算精度也较高。     

大气谱模式中质量守恒格式的研究

当前在世界上广泛采用的谱模式，是以地面气压ps取对数作为展谱变量，模式大气总质量不守恒。本文研究这样的问题，提出了以热力学变量比容α代替温度变量T的方法，并以地面气压ps本身作为展谱变量，这样可以保持大气总质量守恒。同时，由于以α作展谱变量，可使重要项气压梯度项为二阶变量组成，截谱后，不会出现混淆误差。计算结果表明，这样改变后，大气总质量保持守恒。同时消除了混淆误差的出现。     

有地形模式中气压梯度力误差和扣除法的模拟试验

在现有有地形的数值模式中，陡峭地形区气压梯度力的计算存在一个普遍问题，即计算精度较高的格式比较繁琐而费时，简单省时的格式又精确和不稳定，为解决这个问题，作者等在最近提出了一种方法，称为气压梯度力的误差扣除法，该方法假定：气压梯度力的计算误差主要来自地形而与气压形势关系较小，用理想场对该方法进行检验后表明，这一方法是成功的。     

数值模式中温压场垂直插值和初值处理若干方法的讨论

本文对如何提高气象要素的垂直插值精度以减少数值模式中的计算误差的问题作了详细讨论。文中提出了三种温度对气压的分布关系,并检验了它们在数值模式中应用时的优劣。结果表明,温度随气压对数和随高度成线性关系的分布假设较好。试验还证明,当模式中具有高和陡的地形时,用模式大气底层的温压关系去外插地面以下的温度和位势高度时,会造成很大的不规则的误差。用等压面上局地温度相等的假定以及用水平热力结构相同的假设可大大减小外插误差并改善气压梯度力的计算方法。     

地形跟随坐标下的中尺度模式气压梯度力计算误差分析及其改进方案

地形跟随坐标系中水平气压梯度力的算法一直是困扰数值模式发展的关键问题之一。目前数值模式中使用的方法只能在天气尺度的模式中部分缓解气压梯度力的计算误差问题。在高分辨率中尺度模式中，随着地形坡度的进一步加大，气压梯度力的计算误差问题更加突出。作者通过理想场的计算分析了几种主要气压梯度力算法的误差，结果显示在中尺度模式分辨率下，计算的水平气压梯度力不但不收敛于真值，而且随着地形坡度的加大或模式分辨率的提高，计算误差逐渐增大。作者提出了基于静力方程订正的回插等压面改进方案，理想场的计算结果表明该方案的计算误差可显著减小，在典型中尺度模式参数的设置下计算精度可达10-6m/s2。其最大特点是随着模式分辨率的提高，该方案的计算误差将逐步收敛到零。     

温度初值确定之合理性与气压梯度力项的计算

本文讨论数值试验中两个基本问题:温度初值确定和气压梯度力的计算。首先比较几种利用静力方程差分解求温度初值方案所引起的误差,提出一种把等压面高度场插值与静力方程微分解结合起来求取等σ面温度初值的方法,结果表明用这种方法确定的温度初值及其水平分布和垂直递减率接近实测值。文章又讨论山脉地区气压梯度力计算问题,表明气压梯度力的计算精度不仅与计算方案有关,而且与温度初值有很大的关系。利用本文提出的方案得到的温度初值来计算气压梯度力,误差达到比较满意的精度。     

地形区两种典型气压梯度力计算方法的比较

试验比较了两种较为典型的地形区气压梯度力计算方法:一是先在准水平的等压面上计算，再垂直插值到地形坐标面上的方法，二是差-微-差方法。初始化分析和预报结果检验都表明，在减轻地形影响上，前者的优势在大气上层，后者则在中下层。     

陡峭地形区气压梯度力的误差扣除法

设计一种计算陡峭地形区气压梯度力的新方法，限误差扣除法，给出了误差扣除法的基本原理。然后，选用理想大气，用３种近似计算式进行了检验。结果表明，这３种方法在单独用于气压梯度的计算时，计算值都有较大误差，在地形陡峭区，相对误差可以达到２０％以上。即使在平缓地形区，相对误差也不可忽略，只有平均温度格式可以满足精度要求。但当这３种格式在误差扣除法中应用时，绝对误差和相对误差都大大减小，相对误差的量级可达到     

编程求解混合层高度的方法

在t-lnp图上利用08时、14时气压和最低气温、最高气温，经过坐标转换求解早晨、中午混合层的气压和温度，然后根据等温大气压高公式计算混合层高度。该计算方法用VB6．0编程，可自动从当日报文中读取数据，计算出混合层高度值，也可根据数值预报结果计算次日混合层高度。     

一种适用于有限差分模式的负载平衡区域分解方法

分布式内存并行处理在数值天气预报等超大规模科学计算中已经得到了广泛的应用。中尺度模式由于分辨率高 ,计算量大 ,需使用更多的处理机进行并行运算。另一方面 ,由于复杂的物理过程的采用 ,增加了不同天气的计算量的不平衡。但是 ,目前所广泛使用的并行处理方法在处理机数量较多时不能很好地均衡计算负载 ,引起并行计算效率的降低。本文提出了一种新的非规则区域分解负载分配方法。并与已有的负载分配方法进行了分析试验对比 ,该方法能更有效地平衡负载 ,取得更好的加速效果     

The intraseasonal oscillation in ECHAM4 Part II: sensitivity studies

The focus is on sensitivity studies to identify factors that increase the skill of the ECHAM4 atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) in representing the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). The ISO mode is dominated by an eastward propagating oscillation during boreal winter, also known as the Madden-Julian oscillation. A previous study compared observations and reanalysis data to uncoupled and coupled versions of the ECHAM4 GCM. The sensitivity experiments in the present study use those results to assess the importance of the following mechanisms for the simulation of the ISO. First, the vertical resolution is increased to indicate the effect of improved representation of the tropospheric stratification. Second, the horizontal resolution is increased to investigate the importance of the ratio of vertical and horizontal resolution. Third, the effects of the land-sea distribution are studied in an experiment with land points associated with the maritime continent replaced by sea points. Fourth, the ECHAM4 GCM is forced by a T42 version of the observed optimum interpolated SST (OISST) dataset as used in the ECMWF reanalysis to study the influence of the SST as a boundary condition. In addition to integrations with monthly mean SSTs, also an experiment with weekly mean SSTs is examined. The increased vertical resolution slightly slows down the propagation speed of the simulated ISO. Increasing the horizontal resolution from T42 to T106 results in a very noisy and therefore poorer simulation of the ISO. It is suggested that this is due to an inappropriate ratio of vertical and horizontal resolution. Replacing the land points associated with the maritime continent with sea points leads to a more realistic representation of convection over the maritime continent than in the standard model. A consequence is a reduction of the erroneous eastward shift of the simulated ISO activity, although the phase speed of the ISO is simultaneously increased. ECHAM4 forced by an OISST dataset interpolated to the models T42 grid leads to the strongest improvements, since the annual mean AMIP SST averaged over the maritime continent region is 0.14 K warmer than the OISST, and individual grid points can be more than 0.5 K warmer. The reason is that the AMIP SST uses only measurements over water for grid points that are partly covered by land, whereas the OISST also blends these measurements with measurements over the land portions. ECHAM4 forced by the interpolated OISST, which is in the mean only 0.04 K colder over the maritime continent than the OISST, produces a reasonable ISO with a mean period of 40 days for a forcing with monthly mean SSTs and 48 days for a forcing with weekly mean SSTs. These results illustrate the strong influence of the details of the prescribed SST on the simulation of the ISO.     

Fuzzy logic circulation types based on the Osuchowska-Klein classification system created for Poland

Fuzzy logic was applied as a methodology to create an objective calendar of daily atmospheric circulation based on an existing atmospheric circulation classification system for Poland called the Osuchowska-Klein method, which includes 13 circulation patterns. In this study, circulation patterns given by Osuchowska-Klein were expressed as normalized values of sea level pressure in a regular 5°?×?5° grid over the area of interest. Cases of daily atmospheric circulation (i.e., normalized values for the same domain) observed from January 1948 to December 2007 were defined in the same manner. The pattern-matching procedure employed in the study was made objective with the application of fuzzy logic sets in a few steps as follows: (1) discrimination and grouping of grid points as well as their classification in order to clearly define each Osuchowska-Klein circulation pattern, (2) calculation of the similarity between observed normalized pressure and that of the pattern at each selected grid point using a membership function, (3) determination of the degree of fulfillment for every class of grid points, (4) determination of the degree of a case and pattern, (5) selection of the circulation type for a particular day based on the degree of fulfillment for each pattern. The largest value of the degree of fulfillment indicates the type of circulation pattern on any given day. Finally, a validation of the obtained results is discussed. This was accomplished using the chi-square test and a comparison of consistency between the traditional and objective approach types. The results do show some differences between the subjective and objective methods, however, they are not major differences, especially when taking into account the fact that the two methods are quite different, as well as the complex nature of pressure systems.     

完全保持能量守恒的非常定自适应网格模式

本文基于自适应网格的原理，发展了一套网格随时间变的自适应网格模式。该模式保持着 IAP 模式原有的整体积分性质，并具有在任何时刻可随意调整网格点的疏密程度及网格点与边界相重合的特点。可用于台风路径的数值预报等方面。     

气象要素场的显著性检验

本文介绍在气象要素场显著性检验过程中所存在的问题及其解决的方法,其中包括考虑序列持续性影响的单点检验及考虑空间相关性的Monte Carlo等近代气象统计检验方法。     

基于MICAPS平台的四维天气诊断分析系统

以T213模式、HLAFS模式、MM5中尺度模式输出的格点资料以及日本降水量格点资料为基础，研究了面雨量的计算方法和预报方法；根据各种数值模式输出的降水量预报性能和质量优劣特点，依据数值模式的形势场预报优于要素场预报的现实，构造了在不同环流形势背景下，启动不同预报方程的面雨量预报业务流程，有效的遏止了在环流形势调整时预报输出不能快速响应的弱点，提高了点和面雨量预报的准确度，并建立了“山西省主要河流流域面雨量预报业务系统”。2003年将该预报系统投入业务运行，取得了良好的预报服务效果。     

自适应网格在大气海洋问题中的初步应用

自适应网格法是80年代兴起的通过求解椭圆型方程的边值问题来数值生成网格的一种新方法。它是在任意形状的区域上求偏微分方程的数值解的一种非常有效的工具。该方法抛弃了等距均匀的差分网格，代之以能够自动地适应所研究问题中解的特征的疏密程度不均的曲线网格。如在边界上计算网格与实际边界相重合，在区域内部可任意调节网格点的疏密程度等。本文扼要地介绍了自适应网格的原理及其构造方法。并将其应用于生成南海区域的计算网格以及数值预报台风路径的自适应网格。     

自适应网格技术在数值模式中的应用研究 II.二维问题

用一个具有解析解的二维动力锋生成过程算例,对比自适应网格方案和固定网格方案的优劣,结果表明:同等误差要求下,固定网格方案的网格点数为自适应网格方案的3倍。从时间演化上看,自适应网格对温带气旋的预报,在同等误差要求下,可比固定网格的预报延长10小时以上。文章对加权系数选取及对解的影响进行了分析,从几个切面的计算结果展示了自适应网格对网格的优良安排并能抓住锋面特征结构。文章分析了光滑性、正交性对结果的影响。结果表明:网格的光滑性影响有一个优化值;在网格适当安排情况下,要适度考虑正交性。     

EOS/MODIS遥感数据与应用前景

提出了一种利用Vis5d软件实现T213数值预报产品多维立体显示的方法。详细介绍了grib编码和Vis5d的数据格式，提供了建立把T213产品转换为Vis5d格式的软件的具体思路和技巧，介绍了这些软件的使用方法和显示效果，可以在业务中实际应用。     

A Cluster Space Calibration Scheme for Synthetic Wind Statistics Calculated with a Mesoscale Model and its Application to Regional Wind Climate Studies

Summary ?A scheme for calibrating an ensemble of wind fields computed by a mesoscale model in order to generate synthetic wind statistics is described. It is based on two main points. The first is to exploit the power of a mesoscale model to determine wind fields over complex terrain for different weather situations classified by cluster analysis. The second is to use all the information in the cluster analysis, i.e., the centroid values as well as the internal standard deviations of the clusters, to determine a cluster space distribution at each grid point in the model domain. The latter makes calibration possible if reliable measurements are available at the position of one of the grid points. The accuracy of the calibration is increased by splitting the cluster spaces into several parts. Combining both the modelled mesoscale wind fields and the method of split cluster spaces leads to a spatial transformation of the calibration from the calibration point to each grid point in the model domain. A validation of the scheme is carried out with measurements at grid points other than the calibration point and reveals remarkable improvements in the accuracy of the model wind statistics, especially with regard to wind speed distributions. Received October 8, 1998/Revised March 19, 1999