展示新成就 喜庆十六大——“九五“以来江西气象科技成果回顾与展望

在全省气象部门欢庆十六大胜利召开、认真贯彻十六大精神的喜庆日子里,我们组织部分专家,回顾了“九五”以来我省气象部门在气象科技方面取得的巨大成就,并对未来的发展进行了一些有益的思考。现将部分内容刊出,以飨广大读者。我们相信,在十六大精神的指导下,在省委、省政府和中国气象局的正确领导下,江西的气象科技事业一定能够与时俱进,开拓创新,朝着全面建设一流的江西气象事业的目标快速奋进,建立全面建设小康社会的气象科技支持体系,为江西在中部地区崛起、全面实现小康社会作出更大的贡献。     

加强和改进海东气象部门思想政治工作的思考

党的“十六大”在加强思想道德建设中再次提出了加强和改进思想政治工作的任务，这充分说明了在全面建设小康社会中继续抓好思想政治工作的必要性和提高思想政治工作水平的紧迫性。气象部门为适应社会主义市场经济的发展需求，进行着气象事业战略调整，在当前开展的业务技术体制改革工作中，能否做好广大职工的思想政治工作，是关系到气象事业能否发展的关键。本从海东气象部门职工的思想状况入手，就新时期如何紧密联系实际，加强和改进思想政治工作，更好地体现以人为本的思想政治工作原则，进行一些思考。     

认清形势抓住机遇促进黑龙江省气象事业持续快速协调健康发展

同志们：这次全省气象局长会议是在党的十六大提出的全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标和十六届三中全会提出的“全面、协调、可持续发展”的科学发展观和振兴东北老工业基地的新形势下召开的。会议的主要任务是以党的十六大和十六届三中全会精神为指导,深入贯彻全国气象局长会议精神和省委、省政府的部署,总结2003     

宋达人在省局党组中心学习组学习十六大报告会上强调学习江总书记报告必须紧密结合辽宁气象部门实际

本刊讯　记者王奉安　特约记者徐凤莉报道　省气象局局长、党组书记宋达人日前在省局党组中心学习组 (扩大 )学习十六大报告会上强调 :各级领导学习江总书记在十六大上作的报告 ,必须紧密结合辽宁气象部门的工作实际。学习会上 ,大家根据省局党组的要求 ,联系我省气象部门如何更好地实施人才战略和拓宽业务服务领域的实际 ,集中学习和研讨江总书记“全面建设小康社会 ,开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面”的报告。宋达人就我省气象部门人才情况、科技产业情况、财政收入情况、业务质量情况、拓展业务服务领域情况等作了题为“我省气象部门部分…     

以十五大精神为动力开创全省气象部门人事工作新局面

根据党的十五大提出的关于加强党的组织建设的日标和任务,结合辽宁省气象部门实际．为积极推进全省气象事业发展和气象业务现代化建设提供人才保证．人事工作要努力在各级领导班子建设上、在深化人事制度改革上、在人才培养上、在建设高素质气象干部队伍上等各项工作中有新的突破,以推动全省气象事业全面发展。     

在2005年全国气象教育培训工作会议上的讲话

同志们： 这次全国气象教育培训工作会议是在全党深入贯彻党的十六大和十八届三中、四中、五中全会精神，全面贯彻落实科学发展观，大力加强党的执政能力建设和先进性建设，在全国气象部门认真贯彻落实气象事业发展战略研究成果、积极推进气象业务技术体制改革之际召开的。     

树立和落实科学发展观加快实施我区科技兴气象战略

党的十六大确立了全面建设惠及十几亿人口的小康社会的宏伟目标。全面建设小康社会，加快推进社会主义现代化，必须走生产发展、生活富裕、生态良好的明发展道路；坚持经济社会与人口、资源、环境的协调发展；实现人与自然的和谐相处；减轻各种自然灾害的影响。党中央根据十六大确立的宏伟     

实践“三个气象”发展理念 全面开创全省气象事业发展新局面

20 0 4年 ,在中国气象局和辽宁省委、省政府的领导下 ,全省气象部门认真学习党的十六大和十六届三中、四中全会精神 ,树立全面、协调、可持续的科学发展观 ,抓住振兴东北老工业基地的机遇 ,贯彻落实中国气象事业发展战略 ,以“三个气象”的发展理念为指导 ,大力实施“三大战略” ,全面做好气象预报、预警和服务工作 ,大力推进气象现代化建设 ,不断加强行政管理、基层建设、精神文明建设和党风廉政建设工作 ,积极发展地方气象事业和科技服务 ,较好地完成了全年的工作任务。2 0 0 5年全省气象工作的总体要求是 :以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重…     

实践“三个气象”发展理念 全面开创全省气象事业发展新局面

2004年，在中国气象局和辽宁省委、省政府的领导下，全省气象部门认真学习党的十六大和十六届三中、四中全会精神，树立全面、协调、可持续的科学发展观，抓住振兴东北老工业基地的机遇。贯彻落实中国气象事业发展战略，以“三个气象”的发展理念为指导，大力实施“三大战略”，全面做好气象预报、预警和服务工作，大力推进气象现代化建设，不断加强行政管理、基层建设、精神文明建设和党风廉政建设工作，积极发展地方气象事业和科技服务。较好地完成了全年的工作任务。     

坚持发展是第一要务为全面建设小康社会做好气象服务

这次全省气象工作会议的主要任务是以党的十六大精神为指导，深入贯彻中国气象局长会议和省委工作会议精神，总结２００２年全省气象工作，部署今年的工作任务，动员全省气象工作者与时俱进，开拓创新，努力推进黑龙江省气象事业的新发展。一、２００２年全省气象工作的简要回顾２００２年是我国政治生活中十分重要的一年，党的十六大胜利召开，为我们描绘了更加美好的发展蓝图。黑龙江省气象事业继续保持了持续、健康的发展势头。全省气象部门认真贯彻落实党的十六大精神，努力实践“三个代表”的重要思想，按照中国气象局的部署，紧紧围绕…     

大气中硝酸盐、硫酸盐、铵和钙的浓度

1985年10月,在中国的三个不同地点用太氟龙和尼龙滤膜采样系统观测了硝酸根、硫酸根、铵和钙的浓度。平均而言,硫酸根的摩尔浓度与硝酸根的摩尔浓度之比不到2。考虑到中国燃煤大量排放SO_2这一事实,这一低比值有点出乎预料。在北京钙是最重要的阳离子,而在华北山区的兴隆天文观测站和南方城市长沙气溶胶中铵离子多于钙离子。在北风条件下,兴隆的硫酸根和硝酸根浓度与文献中报道的欧洲和北美的本底值接近。因此,兴隆天文观测站是研究亚洲大陆本底空气的理想地点。     

Wind-Driven, Double-Gyre, Ocean Circulation in a Reduced-Gravity, 2.5-Layer, Lattice Boltzmann Model

A coupled lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with second-order accuracy is applied to the reduced-gravity, shallow water, 2.5-layer model for wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the secondorder integral approximation for the collision operator, the model becomes fully explicit. The Coriolis force and other external forces are included in the model with second-order accuracy, which is consistent with the discretization accuracy of the LB equation. The feature of the multiple equilibria solutions is found in the numerical experiments under different Reynolds numbers based on this LB scheme. With the Reynolds number increasing from 3000 to 4000, the solution of this model is destabilized from the anti-symmetric double-gyre solution to the subtropic gyre solution and then to the subpolar gyre solution. The transitions between these equilibria states are also found in some parameter ranges. The time-dependent variability of the circulation based on this LB simulation is also discussed for varying viscosity regimes. The flow of this model exhibits oscillations with different timescales varying from subannual to interannual. The corresponding statistical oscillation modes are obtained by spectral analysis. By analyzing the spatiotemporal structures of these modes, it is found that the subannual oscillation with a 9-month period originates from the barotropic Rossby basin mode, and the interarmual oscillations with periods ranging from 1.5 years to 4.6 years originate from the recirculation gyre modes, which include the barotropic and the baroclinic recirculation gyre modes.     

Anthropogenic, Climatic, and Hydrologic Trends in the Kosi Basin, Himalaya

A great debate exists concerning theinfluence of land-use and climatic changes onhydrology in the Himalayan region and its adjacentplains. As a representative basin of the Himalayas, westudied basinwide land-use, climatic and hydrologictrends over the Kosi Basin (54,000 km²) in themountainous area of the central Himalayan region. Theassessment of anthropogenic inputs showed that thepopulation of the basin grew at a compound rate ofabout one percent per annum during the past fourdecades. The comparison of land-use data between thesurveys made during the 1960s and 1978–1979 did notreveal noticeable trends in land-use change. Theanalysis of meteorological and hydrological timeseries from 1947 to 1993 showed some increasingtendency of temperature and precipitation. Thestatistical tests of hydrologic trends indicated anoverall decrease in discharge on the Kosi River andits major tributaries. The decreasing trends ofstreamflow were more significant during the low-flowmonths. The statistical analysis of homogeneityshowed that the climatic as well as the hydrologictrends were more localized in nature lacking adistinct basinwide significance.     

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Climatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes across Washington State. First, we relate Douglas-fir growth to climatic limitation and suggest that where Douglas-fir is currently water-limited, growth is likely to decline due to increased summer water deficit. Second, we use existing analyses of climatic controls on tree species biogeography to demonstrate that by the mid twenty-first century, climate will be less suitable for key species in some areas of Washington. Third, we examine the relationships between climate and the area burned by fire and project climatically driven regional and sub-regional increases in area burned. Fourth, we suggest that climatic change influences mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks by increasing host-tree vulnerability and by shifting the region of climate suitability upward in elevation. The increased rates of disturbance by fire and mountain pine beetle are likely to be more significant agents of changes in forests in the twenty-first century than species turnover or declines in productivity, suggesting that understanding future disturbance regimes is critical for successful adaptation to climate change.     

Benefits, Costs, and Cooperation in Greenhouse Gas Abatement

Abatement cost and benefit projections through 2100are computed, assembled and interpreted with respectto various levels of emission reduction. Mathematicalexpressions describing regional costs and benefits asa function of abatement strategy are developed. Usingthese data and expressions, optimal abatementstrategies are defined for noncooperative andcooperative (Pareto optimal) policies. Thecooperative solution calls for an average emissionsreduction of 16.6 percent over the 1990–2100 period,as compared to 5.8 percent in the noncooperative case. Achieving the cooperative solution would require sidepayments to China and potentially to the U.S., as wellas stringent (though beneficial) restrictions onnon-OECD countries. It is argued that Paretooptimality is technically achievable but possiblyinfeasible in the real world.     

Climate change,migration and adaptation in Funafuti,Tuvalu

This paper shows the extent to which people in Funafuti – the main island of Tuvalu – are intending to migrate in response to climate change. It presents evidence collected from Funafuti to challenge the widely held assumption that climate change is, will, or should result in large-scale migration from Tuvalu. It shows that for most people climate change is not a reason for concern, let alone a reason to migrate, and that would-be migrants do not cite climate change as a reason to leave. People in Funafuti wish to remain living in Funafuti for reasons of lifestyle, culture and identity. Concerns about the impacts of climate change are not currently a significant driver of migration from Funafuti, and do not appear to be a significant influence on those who intend to migrate in the future.     

Nowcasting precipitation, clouds, and surface state in winter

Freezing of rainwater on a surface is often caused by nocturnal clearing after precipitation, which goes along with radiative cooling. Forecasting cloudiness, and especially the risk of clearing, on a scale of 1 to 3 h is of interest in the domains of road weather, agriculture, or water management.Cloud amount and the difference between air and surface temperature are important parameters of the radiation balance. In this contribution, we show the relationship between them, proved at several stations all over Switzerland. We found a correlation coefficient of 0.88 and improved it considering other meteorological parameters like wind speed. We conclude that temperature difference is a signature for nocturnal cloudiness.We investigated nocturnal cloudiness for a case from winter 2001/02 in northern Switzerland. An ultra-dense combination of two networks with 70 stations in total is operated, measuring air and surface temperature, wind and other parameters. With the aid of our equations, these measurements where converted into cloud maps, including also precipitation seen by radar. We identified a frontal precipitation area, postfrontal clearing, freezing, and the first clouds of a following frontal passage.All these findings will contribute to a better observation and predictability of surface state and other risks connected with radiative cooling.     

从气候变化的新视角理解灾害风险、暴露度、脆弱性和恢复力

不断变化的气候可导致前所未有的极端天气和气候事件。这些事件能否构成灾害,在很大程度上取决于脆弱性和暴露度水平。虽然无法完全消除各种灾害风险,但灾害风险管理和气候变化适应的重点是减少脆弱性和暴露度,并提高对各种潜在极端事件不利影响的恢复力,从而促进社会和经济的可持续发展。全面的灾害风险管理要求更加合理地分配对减灾、灾害管理等方面所付出的努力。过去的主流是强调灾害管理,但目前减灾成为关注焦点和挑战。这种主动积极的灾害风险管理与适应有助于避免未来的风险和灾害,而不仅仅是减少已有的风险和灾害,同时这也是灾害风险管理和气候变化适应更加紧密联系的一个背景。灾害风险管理促进气候变化适应从应对当前的影响中汲取经验,而气候变化适应帮助灾害风险管理更加有效地应对未来变化的条件。     

中国古诗词中的云雾雨雪

从云雾降水物理学的角度学习和分析了一些中国古诗词。内容有:1）分析和统计了唐诗300首和毛泽东诗词中用到云雾雨雪等字的百分比,其分别占总首数的45%和66%;2）列举和分析了描述自然过程、大气过程有云雨雪等字的诗(词)句;3）从现代科学观出发,分析了在一些古诗词中有关云、雨、霜、露等的理解,并作了一些评述;4）对古诗词中直接描述云、雾、雨、雪的内容进行了评论。       

Aridity in Vojvodina, Serbia

For investigating aridity in Vojvodina, two parameters were used: the De Martonne aridity index and the Pinna combinative index. These indices were chosen as the most suitable for the analysis of climate in Vojvodina (a region in northern part of Serbia). Also, these indices were calculated from data obtained from 10 meteorological stations for the period from 1949 to 2006. The spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal De Martonne and the Pinna combinative indices as well as the mean monthly values of the De Martonne index and aridity trends of these indices are presented. There were two, four, and five types of climate on a yearly, seasonal, and monthly basis in Vojvodina, according to the De Martonne climate classification which consists of a total of seven types. In addition, semi-humid and humid climate types were represented in the region, on a yearly basis. The winter season was dominated by wetter types of climate, while the summer season was characterized by drier ones. During the spring and autumn seasons, there were types of climate which range between both aforementioned types. Two out of three climate types, which can be identified using the Pinna combinative index, were registered in Vojvodina region. The most dominant climate type was the semidry Mediterranean with formal Mediterranean vegetation, while the humid type was only identified in one small part of southwestern Vojvodina. The calculated values of both aridity indices showed that there were no annual trends. Therefore, it can be considered that there were no recent aridity changes during the observed period. For paleoclimate, the general story is more complex. The lack of aridity trends in the recent period from 1949 to 2006 supports the fact that Vojvodina has very well preserved loess–palaeosol sequences from the Middle and Late Pleistocene, which indicates that crucial point for their preservation was caused by the weak aridity variability in the region.