燃烧加热污染空气对超燃冲压发动机性能影响研究

针对燃烧加热地面试验设备存在的工质污染问题,采用数值模拟方法研究了燃烧加热污染空气对氢燃料超燃冲压发动机性能的影响。以飞行马赫数Ma=6.5,当量油气比ER=0.6为计算基准状态,分别对纯净空气和污染空气来流下氢燃料超燃冲压发动机的整机流场和性能进行了对比计算分析。燃烧化学反应模拟采用了改进的H₂/O₂七组分八方程模型,湍流模型为标准的 k-ε模型,并采用直连式燃烧室试验数据进行了数值方法的验证。研究结果表明:(1)相对于纯净空气来流,污染空气来流下的超燃冲压发动机推力和比冲均有所下降。(2)采用酒精燃烧加热器的前提下,来流参数匹配静温、静压、马赫数时,发动机性能与纯净空气来流下的结果最为接近,而匹配总温、总压、马赫数时相差最大。(3)来流参数匹配总焓、静压、马赫数的前提下,采用氢燃烧加热器时发动机性能与纯净空气来流下的结果最为接近,而采用甲烷燃烧加热器时相差最大。      

冬小麦蒸腾速率在不同土壤水分条件下的修正

为找到不同土壤含水量对蒸腾速率的影响程度,通过对L1-6200便携式作物生理测定仪在不同土壤水分处理下的蒸腾速率观测值与气象条件计算得出的理论值进行比较,确定不同土壤水分条件下的蒸腾速率修正系数.分析发现:①在不同的土壤含水量下,未考虑修正系数的情况时,土壤含水量越小,理论计算误差越大;土壤含水量越大,理论计算误差越小.②土壤含水量小时蒸腾速率计算值的修正系数大,而土壤含水量偏大时修正系数小.③考虑修正系数后,计算误差显著减小,除了土壤含水量为14.89％稍有偏差外,其它土壤含水量状态下的理论计算值非常接近实际观测值.同时验证了不同土壤水分下的修正系数足显著的.     

全国酸雨观测网未知水样考核结果的统计分析

应用客观统计方法,整理分析了1992年以来全国酸雨观测站网的11次pH未知水样和2次电导率未知水样的考核结果。分析显示,采用稀释和pH调制的标准缓冲溶液作为pH未知水样,其测量偏差随pH标准值的变化不显著,历年的测量标准差均小于0.2pH单位。pH未知水样测量偏差的波动状况指示出观测台站仪器和人员的技术状态变化,对仪器更新、人员培训以及新业务规范的执行等业务建设和质量管理活动有显著的正面响应。对pH未知水样测量偏差的统计还显示,2001年后pH平均测量偏差出现负偏态分布特征,该特征在总体偏差较大时尤为明显,说明部分技术状态不良的台站往往容易出现较大的系统性负偏差。根据考核结果,按照世界气象组织(WMO)推荐的方法,计算除1992年外各次考核的pH值测量的修正绝对中值偏差为0.03～0.10pH单位,1992年和2006年电导率测量的修正绝对中值偏差为4%～5%。修正绝对中值偏差的逐年波动情况反映了全国酸雨观测网pH测量的总体偏差也明显地受台站技术状态波动的影响。     

基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化与偏差修正的热带气旋强度集合预报研究

采用基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化和偏差修正方法的集合预报技术来研究热带气旋的强度预报问题.集合预报系统考虑初值误差和模式误差,利用MM5中尺度模式,采用Anthes-kuo、Grell和Betts-Miller等积云参数化方案和High-res-olution Blaekadar、Burlk-Thompson、MRF等边界层过程的9组不同的组合,分别进行45、60和75 min的短时预报.对9个预报结果采用"镜像法",得到18个集合成员.将蓝金涡旋作为同化的观测场,18个集合成员作为集合Kalman滤波的初始背景集合,采用ENSRF算法和逐点局地分析算法进行同化.同化后的结果作为集合预报的初值,预报过程对模式参数采用前述9种组合,进行72小时预报.通过求取偏差系数对预报结果进行修正,减小模式系统误差.选2003-2004年16个台风过程作为预报个例,讨论偏差修正前后对预报结果的影响.实验结果表明,基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化的热带气旋集合预报相对于非同化的集合预报对路径预报的改进效果优于强度预报.平均而言通过偏差修正,强度集合预报的潜力得到挖掘,绝对误差明显减小,通过偏差修正减小了强度集合预报均值的误差,进而使得预报概率密度函数均值向理论值靠近,从而提高了概率预报的精度和合理性,因此基于集合预报的偏差修正分析方法,是改善热带气旋强度预报水平的有效途径.     

探空气球升速的误差修正研究

为确保探空气球实际升速在合理的范围内,减少探空气球升速理论值与实测值之间的误差,分析了气球升速过快或过慢对资料准确性的影响,探讨了空气密度、空气阻力系数、重力加速度、净举力、球皮及附加物重量等5个与气球升速密切相关因素的影响原理、取值范围、变化规律及影响程度,分析了气球升速理论值与实测值之间存在相对误差的原因,并以衡阳气象台高空探测资料为例,提出采用无量纲的升速修正系数对探空气球升速理论值进行修正,升速修正系数的数值体现了空气阻力、层流或湍流、氢气渗漏等暂时不能定量描述的因素对气球升速的影响程度。研究结果表明:对气球理论升速影响较大的因素是空气密度和空气阻力系数,且空气阻力系数是雷诺数的函数,很难得出定量值;传统方法计算的气球理论值与实测值的平均相对偏差达到了25.5%,主要是由于设置了恒定的空气阻力系数,致使理论升速远大于实际升速;修正后的气球升速理论值与实测值之间相对误差减小到了6.0%,因此修正后的气球升速理论值可以为高空气象探测业务中净举力的确定提供依据。     

二等皮托管测风误差分析及偏差模拟计算

皮托管是组成风速检定装置的主要计量标准设备,其测量精度对检定质量具有重要影响.从皮托管测风原理出发,详细介绍了影响皮托管测风误差的相关因素,模拟计算了各因素对风速测量产生的影响,分析了影响皮托管测风误差的主要因子.结果表明：温度和阻塞系数是影响二等皮托管测风误差的主要因素.当环境温度偏差为±8℃时,可引起二等皮托管风速测量误差为干0.44 m/s（v=30 m/s）.当阻塞修正系数偏差±0.02时,可引起二等皮托管风速测量误差±o.6 m/s（v=30 m/s）;皮托管系数、大气压力和湿度经修正后对二等皮托管测风精度影响相对较小.     

青藏高原地区TRMM PR地面降雨率的修正

为掌握并改进青藏高原地区TRMM卫星降水雷达 (precipitation radar,PR) 地面降雨率准确度,统计分析了2005—2007年TRMM PR 2A25资料和逐小时地面雨量计,结果表明:青藏高原地区TRMM PR地面降雨率在层云降水时平均偏低35%,在对流云降水时平均偏高42%。Z-R关系的适用性是PR产生偏差的原因之一,研究将TRMM PR层云降水模型中20℃层Z-R关系的初始系数A和b分别修正为0.0288和0.6752,对流云降水模型中20℃层的初始系数A和b分别修正为0.0406和0.5809,得到两类降水模型0℃层与20℃层之间不同高度Z-R关系的更新系数。检验结果表明,修正降水模型后能够提高青藏高原地面降雨率测量的准确度。     

夏季青藏高原雪盖对东亚大气环流影响的数值试验

采用钱永甫 模式和与颜宏模式嵌套，并引入修正的青藏高原雪盖下垫面上的反照率参数化，来研究理相民状态下青藏高原东部及南侧夏季有雪盖对东亚大气歪流的影响。／     

三杯风速传感器非水平风场测量性能

为解决三杯风速传感器在计量检定条件下与观测场景中环境差异所导致的测量数据误差,致力于研究空气流速计量标准在量值传递过程中的真实性、准确性和一致性,为新一代三杯风速传感器作为计量器具的新产品型式评价提供思路和参考指标,依据杯式测风仪测量方法与自动气象站风速风向传感器检定规程,并在实验中加入了主体由角度编码器构成的自动化转盘系统,设计了三杯风速传感器在非水平风场内测量性能水平实验。通过调整三杯风速传感器在风洞试验段内的倾斜角度,模拟其在自然界非水平风场中的测量状态,同步采集风洞的标准指示风速、三杯风速传感器的实测风速以及其相应的倾斜角度,计算示值误差,利用方差分析、趋势分析、相关性分析和线性回归分析等统计方法,对不同倾斜角度下三杯风速传感器示值误差进行研究,得出了三杯风速传感器在风洞试验段内的示值误差与实测风速和倾斜角度之间的相关关系,提出了三杯风速传感器在非水平风场下的测量性能指标。研究了三杯风速传感器在非水平风场中实测风速与标准风速和倾斜角度的回归关系,提出了三杯风速传感器在计量环境下非水平风场中数据的量值传递修正算法。     

壁面马赫数分布规律可控的新型内收缩基准流场设计方法

根据有旋特征线理论,设计出了沿程马赫数下降规律可控的轴对称基准流场,分析了基准流场的几何参数(前缘压缩角及中心体半径)的影响规律,发现选取较小的前缘压缩角和中心体半径有利于得到性能优良的基准流场;然后在设计状态Ma=6时研究了三种典型的马赫数下降规律对这种轴对称流场性能的影响。最后考虑了粘性的影响,并进行了粘性修正探索,结果表明,采用附面层位移厚度修正方法后,基准流场的壁面压力分布和无粘情况吻合良好。      

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on