大气中硝酸盐、硫酸盐、铵和钙的浓度

1985年10月,在中国的三个不同地点用太氟龙和尼龙滤膜采样系统观测了硝酸根、硫酸根、铵和钙的浓度。平均而言,硫酸根的摩尔浓度与硝酸根的摩尔浓度之比不到2。考虑到中国燃煤大量排放SO_2这一事实,这一低比值有点出乎预料。在北京钙是最重要的阳离子,而在华北山区的兴隆天文观测站和南方城市长沙气溶胶中铵离子多于钙离子。在北风条件下,兴隆的硫酸根和硝酸根浓度与文献中报道的欧洲和北美的本底值接近。因此,兴隆天文观测站是研究亚洲大陆本底空气的理想地点。     

Wind-Driven, Double-Gyre, Ocean Circulation in a Reduced-Gravity, 2.5-Layer, Lattice Boltzmann Model

A coupled lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with second-order accuracy is applied to the reduced-gravity, shallow water, 2.5-layer model for wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the secondorder integral approximation for the collision operator, the model becomes fully explicit. The Coriolis force and other external forces are included in the model with second-order accuracy, which is consistent with the discretization accuracy of the LB equation. The feature of the multiple equilibria solutions is found in the numerical experiments under different Reynolds numbers based on this LB scheme. With the Reynolds number increasing from 3000 to 4000, the solution of this model is destabilized from the anti-symmetric double-gyre solution to the subtropic gyre solution and then to the subpolar gyre solution. The transitions between these equilibria states are also found in some parameter ranges. The time-dependent variability of the circulation based on this LB simulation is also discussed for varying viscosity regimes. The flow of this model exhibits oscillations with different timescales varying from subannual to interannual. The corresponding statistical oscillation modes are obtained by spectral analysis. By analyzing the spatiotemporal structures of these modes, it is found that the subannual oscillation with a 9-month period originates from the barotropic Rossby basin mode, and the interarmual oscillations with periods ranging from 1.5 years to 4.6 years originate from the recirculation gyre modes, which include the barotropic and the baroclinic recirculation gyre modes.     

Anthropogenic, Climatic, and Hydrologic Trends in the Kosi Basin, Himalaya

A great debate exists concerning theinfluence of land-use and climatic changes onhydrology in the Himalayan region and its adjacentplains. As a representative basin of the Himalayas, westudied basinwide land-use, climatic and hydrologictrends over the Kosi Basin (54,000 km²) in themountainous area of the central Himalayan region. Theassessment of anthropogenic inputs showed that thepopulation of the basin grew at a compound rate ofabout one percent per annum during the past fourdecades. The comparison of land-use data between thesurveys made during the 1960s and 1978–1979 did notreveal noticeable trends in land-use change. Theanalysis of meteorological and hydrological timeseries from 1947 to 1993 showed some increasingtendency of temperature and precipitation. Thestatistical tests of hydrologic trends indicated anoverall decrease in discharge on the Kosi River andits major tributaries. The decreasing trends ofstreamflow were more significant during the low-flowmonths. The statistical analysis of homogeneityshowed that the climatic as well as the hydrologictrends were more localized in nature lacking adistinct basinwide significance.     

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Climatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes across Washington State. First, we relate Douglas-fir growth to climatic limitation and suggest that where Douglas-fir is currently water-limited, growth is likely to decline due to increased summer water deficit. Second, we use existing analyses of climatic controls on tree species biogeography to demonstrate that by the mid twenty-first century, climate will be less suitable for key species in some areas of Washington. Third, we examine the relationships between climate and the area burned by fire and project climatically driven regional and sub-regional increases in area burned. Fourth, we suggest that climatic change influences mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks by increasing host-tree vulnerability and by shifting the region of climate suitability upward in elevation. The increased rates of disturbance by fire and mountain pine beetle are likely to be more significant agents of changes in forests in the twenty-first century than species turnover or declines in productivity, suggesting that understanding future disturbance regimes is critical for successful adaptation to climate change.     

Benefits, Costs, and Cooperation in Greenhouse Gas Abatement

Abatement cost and benefit projections through 2100are computed, assembled and interpreted with respectto various levels of emission reduction. Mathematicalexpressions describing regional costs and benefits asa function of abatement strategy are developed. Usingthese data and expressions, optimal abatementstrategies are defined for noncooperative andcooperative (Pareto optimal) policies. Thecooperative solution calls for an average emissionsreduction of 16.6 percent over the 1990–2100 period,as compared to 5.8 percent in the noncooperative case. Achieving the cooperative solution would require sidepayments to China and potentially to the U.S., as wellas stringent (though beneficial) restrictions onnon-OECD countries. It is argued that Paretooptimality is technically achievable but possiblyinfeasible in the real world.     

Nowcasting precipitation, clouds, and surface state in winter

Freezing of rainwater on a surface is often caused by nocturnal clearing after precipitation, which goes along with radiative cooling. Forecasting cloudiness, and especially the risk of clearing, on a scale of 1 to 3 h is of interest in the domains of road weather, agriculture, or water management.Cloud amount and the difference between air and surface temperature are important parameters of the radiation balance. In this contribution, we show the relationship between them, proved at several stations all over Switzerland. We found a correlation coefficient of 0.88 and improved it considering other meteorological parameters like wind speed. We conclude that temperature difference is a signature for nocturnal cloudiness.We investigated nocturnal cloudiness for a case from winter 2001/02 in northern Switzerland. An ultra-dense combination of two networks with 70 stations in total is operated, measuring air and surface temperature, wind and other parameters. With the aid of our equations, these measurements where converted into cloud maps, including also precipitation seen by radar. We identified a frontal precipitation area, postfrontal clearing, freezing, and the first clouds of a following frontal passage.All these findings will contribute to a better observation and predictability of surface state and other risks connected with radiative cooling.     

Climate change,migration and adaptation in Funafuti,Tuvalu

This paper shows the extent to which people in Funafuti – the main island of Tuvalu – are intending to migrate in response to climate change. It presents evidence collected from Funafuti to challenge the widely held assumption that climate change is, will, or should result in large-scale migration from Tuvalu. It shows that for most people climate change is not a reason for concern, let alone a reason to migrate, and that would-be migrants do not cite climate change as a reason to leave. People in Funafuti wish to remain living in Funafuti for reasons of lifestyle, culture and identity. Concerns about the impacts of climate change are not currently a significant driver of migration from Funafuti, and do not appear to be a significant influence on those who intend to migrate in the future.     

中国古诗词中的云雾雨雪

从云雾降水物理学的角度学习和分析了一些中国古诗词。内容有:1）分析和统计了唐诗300首和毛泽东诗词中用到云雾雨雪等字的百分比,其分别占总首数的45%和66%;2）列举和分析了描述自然过程、大气过程有云雨雪等字的诗(词)句;3）从现代科学观出发,分析了在一些古诗词中有关云、雨、霜、露等的理解,并作了一些评述;4）对古诗词中直接描述云、雾、雨、雪的内容进行了评论。       

从气候变化的新视角理解灾害风险、暴露度、脆弱性和恢复力

不断变化的气候可导致前所未有的极端天气和气候事件。这些事件能否构成灾害,在很大程度上取决于脆弱性和暴露度水平。虽然无法完全消除各种灾害风险,但灾害风险管理和气候变化适应的重点是减少脆弱性和暴露度,并提高对各种潜在极端事件不利影响的恢复力,从而促进社会和经济的可持续发展。全面的灾害风险管理要求更加合理地分配对减灾、灾害管理等方面所付出的努力。过去的主流是强调灾害管理,但目前减灾成为关注焦点和挑战。这种主动积极的灾害风险管理与适应有助于避免未来的风险和灾害,而不仅仅是减少已有的风险和灾害,同时这也是灾害风险管理和气候变化适应更加紧密联系的一个背景。灾害风险管理促进气候变化适应从应对当前的影响中汲取经验,而气候变化适应帮助灾害风险管理更加有效地应对未来变化的条件。     

Aridity in Vojvodina, Serbia

For investigating aridity in Vojvodina, two parameters were used: the De Martonne aridity index and the Pinna combinative index. These indices were chosen as the most suitable for the analysis of climate in Vojvodina (a region in northern part of Serbia). Also, these indices were calculated from data obtained from 10 meteorological stations for the period from 1949 to 2006. The spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal De Martonne and the Pinna combinative indices as well as the mean monthly values of the De Martonne index and aridity trends of these indices are presented. There were two, four, and five types of climate on a yearly, seasonal, and monthly basis in Vojvodina, according to the De Martonne climate classification which consists of a total of seven types. In addition, semi-humid and humid climate types were represented in the region, on a yearly basis. The winter season was dominated by wetter types of climate, while the summer season was characterized by drier ones. During the spring and autumn seasons, there were types of climate which range between both aforementioned types. Two out of three climate types, which can be identified using the Pinna combinative index, were registered in Vojvodina region. The most dominant climate type was the semidry Mediterranean with formal Mediterranean vegetation, while the humid type was only identified in one small part of southwestern Vojvodina. The calculated values of both aridity indices showed that there were no annual trends. Therefore, it can be considered that there were no recent aridity changes during the observed period. For paleoclimate, the general story is more complex. The lack of aridity trends in the recent period from 1949 to 2006 supports the fact that Vojvodina has very well preserved loess–palaeosol sequences from the Middle and Late Pleistocene, which indicates that crucial point for their preservation was caused by the weak aridity variability in the region.     

Local advection of momentum,heat, and moisture in micrometeorology

The local advection of momentum, heat and moisture in micrometeorology due to a horizontal inhomogeneity in surface conditions is numerically investigated by a higher-order turbulence closure model which includes equations for the mean quantities, turbulent fluxes, and the viscous dissipation rate. The application of the two-dimensional model in this paper deals with the simulation of the flow from an extensive smooth dry area to a grassy wet terrain. The mean wind speed, temperature, and humidity distributions in the resulting internal boundary layer downstream of the surface discontinuity are determined such that the energy and moisture balances at the Earth's surface are satisfied.Numerical calculations of the mean temperature and humidity profiles are compared with available observed ones. The results include the advective effects on turbulent flux distributions, surface energy balance, evaporation rate, and Bowen ratio. The sensitivity of the predicted mean profiles and turbulent flux distributions to the surface relative humidity, thermal stratification, and the roughness change is discussed.NRC-NAS Resident Research Associate at AFCRL.     

Climate change,the monsoon,and rice yield in India

Recent research indicates that monsoon rainfall became less frequent but more intense in India during the latter half of the Twentieth Century, thus increasing the risk of drought and flood damage to the country’s wet-season (kharif) rice crop. Our statistical analysis of state-level Indian data confirms that drought and extreme rainfall negatively affected rice yield (harvest per hectare) in predominantly rainfed areas during 1966–2002, with drought having a much greater impact than extreme rainfall. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we find that yield would have been 1.7% higher on average if monsoon characteristics, especially drought frequency, had not changed since 1960. Yield would have received an additional boost of nearly 4% if two other meteorological changes (warmer nights and lower rainfall at the end of the growing season) had not occurred. In combination, these changes would have increased cumulative harvest during 1966–2002 by an amount equivalent to about a fifth of the increase caused by improvements in farming technology. Climate change has evidently already negatively affected India’s hundreds of millions of rice producers and consumers.     

Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at coastal site, Shibukawa, in Seto Inland Sea, Japan

Summary Four years of measurements (1980–83) of carbon dioxide at the northern coast site, Shibukawa, are presented. The data reveal well defined diurnal and seasonal variations. The amplitude of the daily carbon dioxide variation is about 30 ppm during the colder season (January–March; November–December), and about 60 ppm during the warmer season (April–October). The seasonal variation of daily minimum concentration of carbon dioxide has a maximum in the middle of summer (July–September) and a minimum in the winter months. This variation does not correspond to that expected from vegetation activity. The summer peak in carbon dioxide concentration seems to be inherent features at the coast site, Shibukawa; it is probably due to less activity of the vertical mixing under stable stratification of the air layer prevailing throughout the day. The year-to-year comparison of minimums in the winter months reveals an average annual increase of the carbon dioxide content of 6 ppm/year, which is much greater than 1.5 ppm/year observed in the troposphere over Japan [1]. This indicates that the carbon dioxide concentration and its variations at Shibukawa station represent the local scale values rather than the large scale one. The horizontal distribution of carbon dioxide concentration, measured over sea surface near Shibukawa station, also suggests the existence of many patches of high concentration of carbon dioxide due to the local point sources related to the human activity such as ships and industries distributed at the coast site.

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Variationen des atmosphärischen CO₂ bei Shibukawa im Küstengebiet des Inlandsees Seto in Japan

Zusammenfassung Es werden Ergebnisse über Tages- und Jahresgänge von vierjährigen Messungen (1980–83) des CO₂ bei Shibukawa an der nördlichen Küste des Sees vorgelegt. Die Amplitude des Tagesganges beträgt in der kalten Jahreszeit ungefähr 30 ppm und in der warmen Jahreszeit ungefähr 60 ppm. Im Jahresgang des täglichen Minimums des CO₂ fällt das Maximum auf den Sommer und das Minimum auf Wintermonate. Dies entspricht nicht der aus der Aktvität der Vegetation zu erwartenden Variation. Das Sommermaximum scheint eine Besonderheit der Lage von Shibukawa an der Küste zu sein und ist wahrscheinlich auf die zu geringe vertikale Durchmischung bei der tagsüber dort vorherrschenden stabilen Schichtung zurückzuführen. Der Vergleich der Minima der Wintermonate von Jahr zu Jahr läßt eine Zunahme um 6 ppm pro Jahr erkennen, die bedeutend größer ist als die Zunahme um 1,5 ppm pro Jahr in der Troposphäre über Japan [ 1 ]. Dies weist darauf hin, daß die CO₂-Konzentration und ihre Variationen in Shibukawa eher lokale als großräumige Werte darstellen.Die über der Seeoberfläche in der Nähe von Shibukawa gemessene Verteilung der CO₂-Konzentrationen zeigt viele Stellen mit hoher CO₂-Konzentration, die auf lokale Punktquellen menschlicher Aktivität wie auf Schiffe und auf an der Küste verteilte Industrien hinweisen.

     

Temperature,maize yield,and civil conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa

Civil conflicts have swept through many parts of sub-Saharan Africa in the past half century. Recently, scholars from backgrounds as diver as climate science, economics, political science, and anthropology have explored the effects of climate change on these civil conflicts, with mixed results. Our empirical results confirm effects of temperature on the incidence of civil conflict. The key findings are as follows: (i) between 1970 and 2012 in sub-Saharan Africa, a high temperature during maize growing season reduced the crop’s yield, which in turn increased the incidence of civil conflict and (ii) future expected warming is expected to increase civil conflict incidence by 33% in the period 2031–2050, and by 100% in the period 2081–3010, compared to levels between 1981 and 2000. These results highlight the importance of sufficient food supplies and adaptation to increased climate warming to facilitate peace in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Secular changes in the short-term preventive,positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909

Annual variations in births, marriages, deaths, grain prices, and quarterly temperature series in England, France, Prussia, and Sweden are analyzed using a distributed lag model. The results provide support for the existence of the shortterm preventive, positive and temperature checks to population growth. Decreases in fertility and nuptiality are generally associated with increases in grain prices. Increases in mortality appear to be associated with high grain prices, cold winters and hot summers. Changes in these responses over time are examined within the context of economic development.The causes of a high mortality are various; but the greater number of known causes may be referred to five heads: 1) excessive cold or heat; 2) privation of food; 3) effluvial poisons generated in marshes, foul prisons, camps, cities; and epidemic diseases, such as typhus, plague, small pox, and other zymotic diseases; 4) mechanical and chemical injuries; 5) spontaneous disorders to which the structure of the human organization renders it liable. - Farr (1846, p. 164)....a foresight of the difficulties attending the rearing of a family acts as a preventive check, and the actual distresses of some of the lower classes, by which they are disabled from giving the proper food and attention to their children, acts as a positive check to the natural increase of population. - Malthus (1798, Chapter 4).The research on which this paper is based has been funded by grants R01-HD18107 and T32-HD07275 from the U.S. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. This paper is associated with the author's Basic Patterns in Annual Variations in Fertility, Nuptiality, Mortality, and Prices in Preindustrial Europe,Population Studies 42, 2, 1988, 275-303. I thank Ronald Lee, Ulla Larsen, and Jan de Vries for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Wet-bulb,dew point,and air temperature trends in Spain

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study analyses trends of mean (T m), maximum (T x), minimum (T n), dew point (T d), and wet-bulb temperatures (T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly...     

Population, uncertainty, and learning in climate change decision analysis

The prospect of learning about various uncertainties relevant to analyses of the climate change issue is important because it can affect estimates of the costs of both damages and mitigation, and it can influence the optimal timing of emissions reductions. Baseline scenarios representing future emissions in the absence of mitigation are one of the major sources of uncertainty. Here we investigate how fast we might realistically expect to learn about the outlook for long-term population growth, as one determinant of future baseline emissions. That is, we estimate how long it might take to substantially revise current estimates of the likelihood of various population size outcomes over the twenty-first century. We draw on recent work showing that, because population growth is path dependent, we can learn about the long term outlook by waiting to observe how population changes in the short term. We then explore the implications of uncertainty and of this learning potential for mitigation costs and for optimal emissions. Using a simple model, we show that uncertainty in population growth translates into an uncertainty in the optimal tax rate of about $200/tC by 2050 for a range of stabilization levels. When learning is taken into account, it allows for mitigation strategies to change in response to new information, leading to a slight reduction in the expected value of mitigation costs, and a substantial reduction in the likelihood of high cost outcomes. We also find that while learning can lead to large revisions over the next few decades in anticipated population growth, this potential does not imply large changes in near-term optimal emissions reductions. Results suggest that further work on the potential for learning about other determinants of emissions could have larger effects on expected mitigation costs.     

Examining past temperature variability in Moosonee, Thunder Bay, and Toronto, Ontario, Canada through a day-to-day variability framework

Temperature variability in Moosonee, Thunder Bay, and Toronto, Ontario, Canada is examined through a day-to-day variability framework. Statistical measures used in this study include standard deviation (SD), day-to-day temperature variability (DTD), DTD/SD ratio (G), change in day-to-day variability (ΔDTD), and threshold measures of 5°C and 10°C. ΔDTD is the difference between day-to-day change in temperature maximum (DTDtmax) and day-to-day change in temperature minimum (DTDtmin). A distinct seasonal trend is reflected in DTD in Moosonee, Thunder Bay, and Toronto, where ΔDTD is greatest during spring. Monthly ΔDTD averages in Toronto, Thunder Bay, and Moosonee are affected by seasonal variation, the lake effect, and the freeze-up of nearby waterbodies. Yearly averages of ΔDTD have significantly increased over the past recent years in Moosonee and Thunder Bay; a continual increase in climate variability may be detrimental to the subsistence lifestyle of those living in these areas.     

Estimates of the maximum land-fast ice thickness probable once in 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years

Presented are the empirical, nonparametric (quantile), parametric, and randomized estimates of the maximum land-fast ice thickness in the Northern Caspian probable once in 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The annual maxima of the land-fast ice thickness for the 72-year period from 1937 to 2008 are computed using the one-dimensional thermodynamic model of the sea ice developed at Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute.