非线性动力学和湍流

湍流的发生和发展湍流的描述是一个基本问题。浑沌运动的最近研究表明,确定性的系统可以有不规则的浑沌结果,因此浑沌的研究对解释湍流现象是非常重要的。 浑沌和湍流的特点是敏感初条件,并且长时间以后是不可预测的。 非线性耗散系统中运动的形态是非常复杂的。可以有定常吸引子,周期吸引子,拟周期吸引子和奇怪吸引子。 当控制参数变化穿过分岔点,吸引子的拓扑性质就要发生变化。 一般,湍流经过极少数几次分岔即可出现。     

大气湍流的混沌吸引子特征

采用时间延迟技术,利用高性能的超声风温仪和红外湿度脉动仪所测得的大气湍流脉动资料,重构相空间中的湍流吸引子,估算了其相关维D2和最大Lyapunov指数λ1。结果表明,在不同地点、不同时间以及不同大气稳定度条件下,大气湍流的最大Lyapunov指数λ1均大于零,说明大气湍流的确具有混沌特征,且存在低维奇怪吸引子,其维数在3～7之间,视变量的不同(动力变量还是非动力变量)而不同,且受大气稳定度影响。首次使用了湍流动能来重建湍流吸引子。     

Characteristics Of Chaotic Attractors In Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Turbulence

In this paper, the attractors of turbulent flows in phase space are reconstructed by the time delay technique using observed data of atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence, which include high resolution temperature, humidity andthree-dimensional wind speed measurements in Gansu province and Beijing, China. The correlation dimensions and largest Lyapunov exponents have been computed. The results indicate that all the largest Lyapunov exponents in different conditions of time, site and atmospheric stability are greater than zero. This means that the atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence system is really chaotic and has appropriate low-dimensional strange attractors whose dimension numbers range from 3 to 7 and vary with different variables (dynamical variables or non-dynamical variables) and atmospheric stability. Turbulent kinetic energy is first applied to reconstruct the attractor of turbulence, and is found to be feasible.     

Strange attractors in atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence

The possible chaotic nature of the turbulence of the atmospheric boundary layer in and above a decidious forest is investigated. In particular, this work considers high resolution temperature and three-dimensional wind speed measurements, gathered at six alternative elevations at Camp Borden, Ontario, Canada (Shawet al., 1988). The goal is to determine whether these time series may be described (individually) by sets of deterministic nonlinear differential equations, such that: (i) the data's intrinsic (and seemingly random) irregularities are captured by suitable low-dimensional fractal sets (strange attractors), and (ii) the equation's lack of knowledge of initial conditions translates into unpredictable behavior (chaos). Analysis indicates that indeed all series exhibit chaotic behavior, with strange attractors whose (correlation) dimensions range from 4 to 7. These results support the existence of a low-dimensional chaotic attractor in the lower atmosphere.     

Lyapunov exponents of a simple stochastic model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation

A reformulation of the simple model of the thermally and wind-driven ocean circulation introduced by Maas [Tellus 46A (1994) 671] is considered. Under a realistic range of forcing parameters, this model displays multiple attractors, corresponding to thermally direct and indirect circulations. The fixed point associated with the thermally direct circulation is unstable for a broad range of parameters, leading to limit cycles and chaotic behaviour. It is demonstrated that if weather variability is parameterised as stochastic perturbations to the mechanical and buoyancy fluxes, then the leading Lyapunov exponent of the circulation can become positive for sufficiently strong fluctuations in parameter ranges where it is deterministically zero. If the fluctuations are sufficiently small that the stochastic trajectories are not too far from the deterministic attractor, it is demonstrated that the sign of the leading Lyapunov exponent can have a substantial effect on the predictability of the system.     

Nonlinear three- wave interaction among barotropic rossby waves in a large- scale forced barotropic flow

In this paper, the coupling equations describing nonlinear three-wave interaction among Rossby waves including the forcing of an external vorticity source are obtained. Under certain conditions, the coupling equations with a constant amplitude forcing, the stability analysis indi-cates that when the amplitude of the external forcing increases to a certain extent, a pitchfork bifurcation occurs. Also, it is shown from numerical results that the bifurcation can lead to chaotic behavior of “strange” attractor. For the obtained three-variable equation, when the amplitude of modulated external forcing gradually increases, a period-doubling bifurcation is found to lead to chaotic behavior. Thus, in a nonlinear three-wave coupling model in the large-scale forced barotropic atmospheric flow, chaotic behavior can be observed. This chaotic behavior can explain in part 30-60-day low-frequency oscillations observed in mid-high latitudes.     

不同下垫面大气边界层湍流的混沌特性研究

根据３ 种不同观测资料,计算和分析了有关诊断具有耗散结构的系统混沌运动的特征量：功率谱、关联维数、Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ 指数和关联熵。结果表明：尽管下垫面明显不同,大气边界层湍流均为混沌运动。     

LOCALIZED FEATURES OF CHAOTIC SYSTEM AND ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY

The localized features on chaotic attractor in phase space and predictability are investigated in thepresent study.It will be suggested that the localized features in phase space have to be considered indetermining the predictability.The notions of the local instability including the finite-time and local-time instabilities which determine the growth rate of error are introduced,and the calculation methodsare discussed in detail.The results from the calculation of the 3-component Lorenz model show thatsuch instability,correspondingly the growth rate of error,varies dramatically as the trajectoriesevolve on the chaotic attractor.The region in which the growth rate of error is small is localizedconsiderably,and is separable from the region in which the growth rate is large.The localpredictability is of important interest.It is also suggested that such localized features may be the maincause for a great deal of case-to-case variability of the predictive skill in the operational forecasts.     

PERIOD-DOUBLING BIFURCATIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND APERIODIC VARIATIONS OF THE FLOW PATTERNS

An eighth-order set of ordinary differential equations, which governs the dynamics of aquasi-geostrophic flow of the baroclinic atmosphere, is used to investigate bifurcational and chaoticforms of the atmospheric circulation. Numerical integrations of the set exhibit period-doublingbifurcations of the flow patterns. It would seem that the Feigenbaum relation (r_n-r_(n-1))/(r_(n+1)-r_n)=4.6692 is satisfied approximately. Above a limit point the solutions are aperiodic and chaotic, anda strange attractor having four inter-linked chaotic fragments appears. A window of period-6emerges also in the chaotic region.     

西太平洋副高活动指数的吸引子维数计算

基于NCEP／NCAR再分析资料计算出的西太平洋副高活动的三种特征指数，利用相空间重构方法对副高活动的三种特征指数的混沌特性和分数维进行了计算。计算结果表明，副高的短期活动存在混沌吸引子，副高脊线指数和面积指数动力系统的独立变量数目的上、下限分别为3和6，分析结果为副高动力系统的重构研究奠定了基础。     

基于混沌吸引子的复杂农业系统预测模型研究

农业生产是自然再生产和经济再生产有机结合的过程，农业系统是高度耦合了自然生态、社会经济系统等的复杂大系统，具有非线性和耗散性特征。复杂农业系统要素非线性作用所表现的系统行为形成农业系统的整个演化轨迹。从长期演化来看，由于系统内部自组织作用、系统协同和外部随机扰动的作用使得农业系统出现混沌现象，故复杂系统具有长期不可预测性。本文根据复杂农业系统的预测规范，重构复杂农业系统相空间，建立了基于“混沌吸引子”的非线性混沌动力学预测模型，并以成都的相关数据进行分析验证。     

有速度切变时,Lorenz系统中浑沌的特点

Lorenz方程中引进切变以后,对普朗特数为0.7的大气可以出现浑沌。 速度切变在一定情况下起阻尼作用,有切变时比无切变时湍流发生的临界莱雷数要高。 浑沌是一种非周期的现象,它在相空间中的轨迹是混乱的。 通向湍流的道路有很多种。切变较小时为普通湍流形态;切变较大时是间歇湍流形态;切变适中时为短暂层流状态。 有速度切变时的浑沌对大气湍流的研究有很大的实际意义。     

A Lagrangian Stochastic Model for Sea-Spray Evaporation in the Atmospheric Marine Boundary Layer

The dispersion of heavy particles subjected to a turbulent forcing is often simulated with Lagrangian stochastic models. Although these models have been employed successfully over land, the implementation of traditional LS models in the marine boundary layer is significantly more challenging. We present an adaptation of traditional Lagrangian stochastic models to the atmospheric marine boundary layer with a particular focus on the representation of the scalar turbulence for temperature and humidity. In this new model, the atmosphere can be stratified and the bottom boundary is represented by a realistic wavy surface that moves and deforms. Hence, the correlation function for the turbulent flow following a particle is extended to the inhomogenous, anisotropic case. The results reproduce behaviour for scalar Lagrangian turbulence in a stratified airflow that departs only slightly from the expected behaviour in isotropic turbulence. When solving for the surface temperature and the radius of evaporating heavy water droplets in the airflow, the modelled turbulent forcing on the particle also behaves remarkably well. We anticipate that this model will prove especially useful in the context of sea-spray dispersion and its associated sensible heat, latent heat, and gas fluxes between spray droplets and the atmosphere.     

Observations of the energy-containing oceanic Eddies,and theoretical models of waves and turbulence

Two of the best available observed frequency spectra of energy-containing oceanic motions are summarized. Without provoking any simple explanation, they affirm that an efficient, homogeneous cascade of energy to small scales isnot occurring. The way is left open for interpretation as a mixture of geostrophic turbulence and waves.Detailed models are given which yield plausible behavior of various parts of the wave-number and frequency spectra, and illustrate the workings of nonlinearity and wave dispersion: (i) simple dispersion of linear, wind-generated internal waves gives at depths an inertial peak and a steeply sloping high-frequency spectrum (the inertial peak at the very top of the ocean is a direct response of the mixed layer to the wind); (ii) at longer periods,two-dimensional turbulence subjected to the beta effect produces well-ordered motions from a chaotic initial state, with dominant length and time-scale independent of initial conditions. The turbulence evolves quickly and naturally into Rossby waves, leaving a peaky, quasi-stationary spectrum; (iii) inone dimension, the Korteweg de Vries equation again shows how waves may sharpen and fix the wave-number spectrum while dispersing the energy in physical space; (iv) possible application of the ideas tothree-dimensional turbulence and waves is discussed.The most general result is that the scale-dependent boundary, at which the wave steepness is about unity, often divides energy-frequency/wave-number space into regions in which the mobility of energy is vastly different; depending on the direction and speed of nonlinear migration within these regions, energy may pile up at this boundary. Thus, wave-restoring forces can concentrate spectra at certain wave numbers while dispersing the fields in physical space.Now at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.     

A Wind-Tunnel Investigation of Wind-Turbine Wakes: Boundary-Layer Turbulence Effects

Wind-tunnel experiments were performed to study turbulence in the wake of a model wind turbine placed in a boundary layer developed over rough and smooth surfaces. Hot-wire anemometry was used to characterize the cross-sectional distribution of mean velocity, turbulence intensity and kinematic shear stress at different locations downwind of the turbine for both surface roughness cases. Special emphasis was placed on the spatial distribution of the velocity deficit and the turbulence intensity, which are important factors affecting turbine power generation and fatigue loads in wind energy parks. Non-axisymmetric behaviour of the wake is observed over both roughness types in response to the non-uniform incoming boundary-layer flow and the effect of the surface. Nonetheless, the velocity deficit with respect to the incoming velocity profile is nearly axisymmetric, except near the ground in the far wake where the wake interacts with the surface. It is found that the wind turbine induces a large enhancement of turbulence levels (positive added turbulence intensity) in the upper part of the wake. This is due to the effect of relatively large velocity fluctuations associated with helicoidal tip vortices near the wake edge, where the mean shear is strong. In the lower part of the wake, the mean shear and turbulence intensity are reduced with respect to the incoming flow. The non-axisymmetry of the turbulence intensity distribution of the wake is found to be stronger over the rough surface, where the incoming flow is less uniform at the turbine level. In the far wake the added turbulent intensity, its positive and negative contributions and its local maximum decay as a power law of downwind distance (with an exponent ranging from −0.3 to −0.5 for the rough surface, and with a wider variation for the smooth surface). Nevertheless, the effect of the turbine on the velocity defect and added turbulence intensity is not negligible even in the very far wake, at a distance of fifteen times the rotor diameter.     

Extended Range(10–30 Days) Heavy Rain Forecasting Study Based on a Nonlinear Cross-Prediction Error Model

Extended range(10–30 d) heavy rain forecasting is difficult but performs an important function in disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper,a nonlinear cross prediction error(NCPE) algorithm that combines nonlinear dynamics and statistical methods is proposed. The method is based on phase space reconstruction of chaotic single-variable time series of precipitable water and is tested in 100 global cases of heavy rain. First,nonlinear relative dynamic error for local attractor pairs is calculated at different stages of the heavy rain process,after which the local change characteristics of the attractors are analyzed. Second,the eigen-peak is defined as a prediction indicator based on an error threshold of about 1.5,and is then used to analyze the forecasting validity period. The results reveal that the prediction indicator features regarded as eigenpeaks for heavy rain extreme weather are all reflected consistently,without failure,based on the NCPE model; the prediction validity periods for 1–2 d,3–9 d and 10–30 d are 4,22 and 74 cases,respectively,without false alarm or omission. The NCPE model developed allows accurate forecasting of heavy rain over an extended range of 10–30 d and has the potential to be used to explore the mechanisms involved in the development of heavy rain according to a segmentation scale. This novel method provides new insights into extended range forecasting and atmospheric predictability,and also allows the creation of multi-variable chaotic extreme weather prediction models based on high spatiotemporal resolution data.     

Observations of a multi-level turbulence structure in a very stable atmospheric boundary layer

Boundary-layer measurements conducted at the Marsta site in Sweden from a winter-time situation (23–25 Feb.) with stable stratification have been analysed. The data comprise wind and temperature profile measurements up to 30 m, turbulence measurements at 2, 6 and 30 m and Doppler acoustic sounder data up to about 150 m. The upwind fetch at the site is flat and free from obstacles to a distance of ca 5 km for the particular sector chosen for the experiment.During the night, a two-layer vertical structure developed. Analysis of power spectra, co-spectra and variances in a shallow and very stable turbulent boundary layer near the ground show that the turbulence is fully developed and follow the universal behaviour.Above, at a height of 30 m, another turbulent layer is produced by increased wind shear near a low-level jet. This turbulent upper layer can be regarded as a layer of free shear flow. At this height, there also exist wave-turbulence interactions at low frequencies which sometimes cause a countergradient heat flux.     

Overturning and wind-driven circulation in a low-order ocean–atmosphere model

A low-order ocean–atmosphere model is presented which combines coupling through heat exchange at the interface and wind stress forcing. The coupling terms are derived from the boundary conditions and the forcing terms of the constituents. Both the ocean and the atmosphere model are based on Galerkin truncations of the basic fluid dynamical equations. Hence, the coupled model can readily be extended to include more physics and more detail. The model presented here is the simplest of a hierarchy of low-order ocean–atmosphere models. The behaviour of the coupled model is investigated by means of geometric singular perturbation theory and bifurcation analysis. Two ways are found in which the slow time scales can play a role in the coupled dynamics. In the first scenario, a limit cycle on the overturning time scale is created. The associated oscillatory behaviour is governed by internal ocean dynamics. In the second scenario, intermittent behaviour occurs between periodic and chaotic regimes in parameter space.