1971-2014年黑龙江省水稻低温冷害的研究

为合理运用气候资源来指导黑龙江省水稻莳植,采用数理统计方法、Mann-Kendall(简称M-K)突变检验法以及水稻低温冷害概率计算法等方法 ,经过统计分析1971-2014年黑龙江省逐年平均气温的变化规律和相对应的M-K突变检验,同时结合水稻产生低温冷害的时空特点之研究,得出以下结论:1971-2014年间,黑龙江省低温冷害出现的概率由南向北增加。北部地区为延迟型冷害出现次数最多的区域;松嫩南部地区最不容易发生延迟型冷害;牡丹江山区比三江平原地区更易发生延迟型冷害。同时,黑龙江省水稻种植区障碍型冷害每10 a发生频率随着时间的推移逐渐降低,20世纪80年代是障碍型冷害出现最多的时段,20世纪90年代是障碍型冷害出现由多到少的转折期,本世纪初是障碍型冷害出现频率最低的时段。在地理分布上,障碍型冷害发生频率的趋势表现为由东西部向中部、由南向北增高,其中西部障碍型冷害出现概率最低,北部最高。     

云南省近50年水稻抽扬期低温冷害演变特征分析

采用云南省1960—2009年逐日平均气温数据,按照《云南省水稻抽扬期低温冷害业务标准》提取出这50 a中云南省水稻抽扬期发生低温冷害的天气过程,并进行冷害分级,基于ArcGIS绘制出各年代冷害发生的频率分布,再分地域研究其强度特征.采用线性趋势法、累积距平曲线等分析近50年云南省水稻抽扬期低温冷害的时间变化特征,以期揭示水稻抽扬期冷害的演变规律.结果表明：1960—2009年,云南省水稻抽扬期低温冷害的主要发生区域集中在昭通市和曲靖市,昭通市发生冷害程度最重,保山市的龙陵县也为多发地区;从时间变化趋势上看,水稻抽扬期不同程度的低温冷害发生日数均趋于减少;从站数比和其累积距平曲线变化上看,20世纪70年代冷害的发生范围最大,频率最高,90年代则为少发阶段,从2000年之后,冷害集中暴发,暴发速度快、强度大,到2008年才有所缓和.     

基于水稻灌浆程度的东北地区水稻延迟型冷害气候变化特征

采用水稻生长发育和产量形成气象影响模式计算出的各站水稻灌浆程度,以年灌浆程度≤85%作为判定延迟型冷害的标准,分析了近48a东北三省水稻延迟型冷害空间分布特征及时间变化规律。研究得出:东北三省延迟型冷害主要发生在黑龙江省东北部、东南部地区和吉林省东北部地区。东北三省延迟型低温冷害总体呈现减少的趋势;冷害集中出现在1996年以前,1997年后冷害明显减少。     

水稻障碍型冷害损失评估及预测动态模型研究

在分析东北水稻生殖生长关键期低温生理反应的基础上,建立了计算日冷积温(时积温)及其与空壳率关系的模式和敏感期内每日水稻敏感群体数量比率分布标准化模式,进而建立了水稻在生殖生长关键期内因低温影响而导致空壳率及减产率评估、预测模式。该模式可较精确地计算出逐日低温导致的空壳率及减产率,可比成熟期提前25 d左右进行冷害评估和损失预测。     

铜仁地区中高山水稻冷害及预防对策

分析了铜仁地区中高山水稻冷害的类型、天气特征、分布规律及其与空壳率的关系，同时提出了预防对策。     

1961-2010年黑龙江省水稻延迟型冷害时空变化特征

利用1961-2010年黑龙江省62个气象站资料,基于5-9月平均气温和水稻冷害等级行业标准,利用累积距平和小波分析等方法分析水稻延迟型轻度、中度和严重冷害的空间分布特征及时间变化规律,以期为水稻延迟型冷害的研究提供基础。结果表明：1961-2010年黑龙江省水稻延迟型冷害主要集中发生在黑河、齐齐哈尔、哈尔滨东部、牡丹江西部和三江平原东部地区。1961-2010年黑龙江省水稻延迟型冷害存在明显的阶段性变化,1994年后转入新的较少发生阶段,2000年后黑龙江省水稻延迟型冷害发生明显减少。黑龙江省水稻延迟型轻度冷害和中度冷害存在21 a和9 a左右的变化周期,水稻延迟型严重冷害存在21 a左右的周期变化。     

北方水稻低温冷害指标持续适用性检验与比较

农业气象指标的可持续适用性检验与比较,对提升农业气象业务能力意义重大。应用北方地区代表县(市)1960—2010年逐日气温资料和历年水稻产量资料,计算冷害温度指标界定水稻冷害发生的正确率,对中国北方水稻延迟型冷害和障碍型冷害常用的指标进行应用效果检验,并比较适用性差异。结果表明,界定水稻延迟型冷害的5—9月气温指标稳定适用,正确率达到78%左右,可持续性好;积温差额指标也比较稳定,可以继续应用;但是积温距平指标判定冷害的正确率较低,多数地方不宜继续使用。界定水稻障碍型冷害的日平均气温、日最低气温及其持续时间指标比较稳定可靠,多数县(市)可以继续应用,但少数县市应暂停使用;日最低气温指标界定冷害的正确率略高于日平均气温指标。多年来,这些指标尽管要素和原理不变,但在适用性及可持续性方面存在一定的年代和区域差异,应选择使用并及时修订过时的指标,以适应气候变化和水稻栽培。     

日照条件与晚稻障碍型害冷

本地区绝大部分面积在北回归线以南,北靠大陆,南近热带海洋,双季晚稻抽穗开花期间,正是季风转换季节,气候波动较大,当首次较强冷空气入侵时,常会产生冷害,导致空壳秕粒增加,产量锐减。这种冷害多发生在寒露节前后,通常称寒露风。寒露风主要影响晚稻抽穗开花,实质上是一种障碍型冷害,这种冷害发生,从农业天气及环流背景上大体可分两种类型,即湿冷型和干冷型。湿冷型是在寒露节前后二十天左右时间内,北方较强冷空     

基于ArcGIS Engine的北方作物低温冷害监测评估系统

针对易受气候变化引发的低温冷害灾害,总结常用低温冷害监测、评估方法和指标,结合统计模型,利用地面气象观测数据、气象预报数据和卫星遥感数据,以Microsoft SQL Server 2005数据库作为支持,应用ArcGISEngine开发工具包,在Visual Studio 2005开发环境下,完成了以玉米、水稻为主要粮食作物的北方地区低温冷害监测评估系统的设计与开发,实现了玉米延迟型低温冷害、水稻障碍型低温冷害、年度低温冷害和遥感低温冷害监测,以及玉米、水稻低温冷害影响评估及预测.     

日本水稻的障碍型冷害研究

冷害,意味着因生长期低温而造成减产,本文中的“低温”是指温度范围为10～20℃,在日本最北部的北海道,过去90年中有22年曾因夏季异常低温而造成减产。据分析,水稻产量与夏季温度之间有很好的相关关系,当7、8月平均温度低于20℃时,产量即下降。由于农业技术的进展,虽不会出现大幅度的减产,但正常年和冷害之间的产量差异仍然可达1.5吨/公顷,因此,采取相应措施来防御低温造成的减产,仍是北海道水稻栽培中的一个重要问题。一、障碍型冷害的特征 1.低温冷害的两种类型日本的低温冷害有两种类型:延迟型和障碍型。在延迟型冷害中,水稻减产是由于成熟期间的     

黑龙江省延迟型低温冷害气候指标研究

针对影响黑龙江省农业生产的延迟型低温冷害,探讨前人提出的东北地区低温冷害气候指标在黑龙江省的适用性,借鉴前人经验,考虑玉米和水稻种植面积不断北扩等因素,确定黑龙江省延迟型性低温冷害气候指标的技术路线、判识临界值和计算方案。利用1961-2012年黑龙江省27个气象台站5-9月平均气温,以热量指数距平冷害判识指标为参照,考虑低温冷害指标与纬度、经度和海拔高度的密切关系,采用逐步回归法建立黑龙江省延迟型低温冷害气候指标;经过验证,表明该指标判识的低温冷害年与黑龙江省低温冷害的实际和发生规律相符,可作为监测指标;该指标所需数据量小,计算简便,具有实用性和推广价值;可采用该指标对黑龙江省低温冷害的历史发生规律进行分析。     

近46a黑龙江水稻障碍型冷害及其与气候生产力的关系

利用黑龙江省稻作区46 a（1961—2006年）每年7—8月逐日平均气温、5—9月逐旬平均气温、降水量资料,采用气候统计方法分析了自然低温下障碍型冷害发生的规律和时空变化特征,基于logistic曲线方程模拟粳稻气候生产力,建立起5个区域粳稻气候生产力与障碍型冷害期间平均温度和冷害持续时间的关系模型。结果表明,近46 a间,20世纪70年代是障碍型冷害高发期,20世纪80年代是障碍型冷害发生频率由多至少的转折期,21世纪初为低发期。黑龙江省北部稻作区、东部稻作区和中部稻作区为障碍型冷害重发区,南部稻作区为中等发生区,西部稻作区为轻发区。5个区域障碍型冷害发生期间的平均温度与粳稻气候生产力相关性均不显著,而冷害持续时间对粳稻气候生产力影响显著,并具有明显的地域差异,北部、东部和南部极显著（通过0.01信度的显著性检验）,冷害持续时间每延长1 d,北部、东部和南部粳稻气候生产力分别下降119.89 kg/hm^2、213.60 kg/hm^2、133.84 kg/hm^2,西部和中部影响不显著。     

吉林省水稻延迟型低温冷害气候风险评价与区划

吉林省是全国主要的水稻产区之一,研究水稻延迟型冷害发生规律及风险性,对于防御冷害和保证水稻安全生产意义重大。基于1961-2008年吉林省46站平均气温资料,建立包括生长季热量变异系数、冷害发生频率、冷害风险指数和冷害发生气候概率4个指标在内的指标体系,对水稻延迟型低温冷害风险进行评估。将4个评价指标进行极差标准化,采用等权重求平均,得到水稻低温冷害气候风险综合指标;将吉林省划分成高、次高、中等、次低和低5个水稻延迟型低温冷害气候风险区域。结果表明：吉林省的东部延边、白山多数地区低温冷害的风险性较大;西部地区大部、四平大部和通化南部低温冷害的风险性较小。     

2007年晚春冷涝灾害导致早稻严重死苗原因浅析

2007年4月3~11日和4月23日,玉林市出现持续时间长的晚春低温冷害及暴雨涝灾,造成玉林农业气象观测地段早稻严重死苗,且观测地段灾情明显重于周围稻田。通过分析找到了天气灾害及管理等方面的原因。     

Observed variability and trends in extreme temperature indices and rice–wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, India—a case study

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the trends and variability in extreme temperature indices and its impact on rice–wheat productivity over two districts of Bihar, India, which is part of the middle Indo-Gangetic Basin. Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for detection of trend and Sen slope was determined to quantify the magnitude of such trends. We have analyzed 10 extreme temperature indices for monthly and seasonally. The influence of extreme temperature indices on rice–wheat productivity was determined using correlation analysis. As far as Patna is concerned, if the number of cool days during September ≥10, the rice productivity will increase due to the availability of sufficient duration to fill up the grain. However, higher warm days during all the months except June will affect the productivity. A significant negative correlation was noticed between maximum value of minimum temperature during September and rice productivity. Highly significant positive correlation was noticed between number of cool days during September with rice productivity while it was highly significant negative correlation in the case of number of warm days during the same month. As far as Samastipur is concerned, a negative correlation was noticed between wheat productivity and maximum value of maximum temperature (TXx) during February, but not statistically significant. The higher temperature may affect the kernel weight and thereby yield. It is seen that a critical value of TXx ≥29.2 °C will be harmful to wheat crop during February. A significant positive correlation of number of cool nights with wheat productivity also supports the above relationship. The critical values of extreme temperature indices during rice and wheat growing months provide an indicator to assess the vulnerability of rice–wheat productivity to temperature for Patna and Samastipur districts and there is a need to prepare an adaptive strategy and also develop thermo-insensitive rice–wheat high yielding varieties suitable for this region to sustain rice–wheat productivity under projected climate change situation.     

广东冬季寒害对香蕉产量的影响

广东丰富的气候资源有利于香蕉生产的发展，但冬季寒害仍可使香蕉生产遭受重大损失，即使冬季最温暖的粤西南亦难幸免。阐述了广东香蕉寒害发生的情况，对几次突出的冬季寒害及其危害进行分析。严重影响广东香蕉主产区的寒害虽然平均约5年左右一遇，但是20世纪90年代寒害出现较频繁，加上反季节种植的春夏蕉由于经济效益较高，种植面积迅速扩大，使得其抽蕾或花芽分化在冬季，造成香蕉遭受寒害的几率增大，对香蕉产量影响很大。为此，广东香蕉生产的发展要重视寒害、风害及市场变化带来的风险，必须因地因时制宜，合理布局，搞好防灾减灾。     

Thermal Climate Variations and Potential Modification of the Cropping Pattern in Bangladesh

Summary Changes in the thermal climate due to inter-annual climatic variability can potentially modify existing cropping pattern by forcing farmers to rearrange transplanting and harvesting dates. In the present study, a crop climate model, the YIELD, has been applied to 12 meteorological stations located in major rice growing regions in Bangladesh to estimate the effect of thermal climate variations on the transplanting and harvesting dates of boro rice and the resultant potential changes in cropping pattern and spatial shift. The abnormal thermal climate scenarios have been created by synthetically perturbing mean air temperatures (T_air) up to −5 °C to +5 °C with an interval of 1 °C for each of these stations. Historical meteorological records of air temperature in Bangladesh have been used to prepare these scenarios. The study finds that under abnormally cool conditions transplanting dates will be pushed well into February to avoid plant injury and harvesting dates will be moved into the monsoon. The growing seasons will be longer under cooler than normal thermal conditions. Under abnormally warm conditions harvesting dates will be established well into March and will cause reduction of yield due to a shorter growing season. These conditions will also cause spatial shift in crop potential and changes in the cropping pattern. Due to a longer boro rice growing season farmers will lose a significant amount of cropping land which is usually used for low and deep water rice cultivation. New crops will need to be introduced during the beginning of a year to overcome the loss of production under abnormally cool conditions. Wheat and potato can be good options for the farmers for such conditions. New aus rice variety needs to be introduced after the boro harvesting under warmer than the normal conditions to overcome the loss of yield due to a shorter growing season. Received September 16, 1996 Revised September 8, 1997     

皮纳图博火山云对1992年大范围气候的影响

1991年6月中旬，菲律宾的Pinatubo火山将近二千万吨含硫气溶胶喷入平流层高空，形成了本世纪最大的一次火山云事件。文章叙述了火山云在高空的扩散状况及其对1992年大范围气候的致冷影响。这表现为全球平均气温的明显下降;北半球1～10月(尤其是夏秋季节)气候冷区明显增多，这种气候冷区有从低纬向高纬逐步移动的趋势;而且夏半年在我国也出现了一系列冷害现象。     

Heat injury risk assessment for single-cropping rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under climate change

Under global warming, the risk of heat injury for crops increases, which leads to increasing instability in agricultural production. In this study, based on phenological observation data and yield data during 1981-2011 and daily meteorological data during 1961-2011 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), the risk of heat injury for single-cropping rice in this area and its response to climate change were assessed and analyzed. The risk was decomposed into such elements as hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster prevention/mitigation capacity, in accordance with natural disaster risk assessment theory and the formation mechanisms of agrometeorological disasters.First, a hazard assessment model was established to identify spatiotemporal variations of the heat injury in the MLRYR during 1961-2011, and the relationship between heat injury hazard and air temperature was analyzed to identify the response of hazard to climate change. It was found that the heat injury hazard of single-cropping rice was positively correlated with the mean and maximum temperatures during the rice heading period of 20 days, with the hazard increasing sharply when the mean temperature exceeded 26.5°C and the maximum temperature exceeded 31°C. Then, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster prevention/mitigation capacity were also quantitatively examined. The results show that vulnerability and hazard were the two most important factors in the heat injury risk assessment for single-cropping rice at most stations in the MLRYR.The risk assessment considering only the first three natural elements produced high-risk values (> 0.46) mainly in the northeast of the study area. By adding the regional capability in disaster prevention/mitigation into account, the risk assessment produced high-risk values in a much smaller area in the northeast but some-what larger areas in the southwest of the study domain. In general, the risk of heat injury differed greatly within the MLRYR. Particular rice varieties should be adopted for specific regions, according to the local risk features quantified by this study. Under the warming climate, the risk of heat injury for single-cropping rice is likely to continue to increase.