对IPCC第五次评估报告关于人为和自然辐射强迫的解读

<正>人为辐射强迫是气候变化的驱动力之一,因此,对人为和自然辐射强迫的评估~([1])是IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)第一工作组科学部分的重要内容。AR5在指出了IPCC第四次评估报告(AR4)及其之前所用的辐射强迫概念的优点和局限性后,为了涵盖影响云的快速过程,给出了新的辐射强迫——有效辐射强迫的概念,并与之前使用的瞬时辐射强迫和平流层调整的辐射强迫进行了比较。此外,为了定量比较各种排放对气候的影响,AR5首次定义并使用了基于排放的辐射强迫慨念,并对衡量温室气体排放的两个概念,即全球增温潜势(GWP)和全球温变潜势(GTP)进行了全面的评价。AR5有关人为和自然辐射强迫的结论是,人类活动导致的混合温室气体(WMGHGs)增加已经大幅度地加强了温室效应,其导致的强迫将继续增加。气溶胶部分地抵消了WMGHGs的强迫,是气候     

复杂地形城市冬季边界层对气溶胶辐射效应的响应

作者着眼于城市气溶胶辐射效应与大气边界层的相互作用问题,针对地形复杂的兰州市及周边地区,开发应用了WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting,天气研究和预报)模式,使之与包含了大气气溶胶辐射效应和气溶胶粒子扩散的综合大气边界层数值模式嵌套起来.通过个例分析,揭示了冬季气溶胶辐射效应对边界层结构的定量影响.主要特征为夜间气溶胶的长波辐射效应使地面附近的气温增高,增温幅度为0.1～0.3 K/h,使低空(25～300 m)大气层冷却,降温幅度为0.08～0.15 K/h,风速在150 m以下减小;白天气溶胶的短波辐射效应使地面层内明显增温,1 h内升温约0.5 K,增温最大值在混合层顶500～600 m高度.受增温影响,垂直风场和水平风场随之调整,风速在450 m以下增大约0.1 m/s左右,而在450 m以上风速减小0.1 m/s左右.     

云辐射强迫效应对热带气旋发展和结构的影响

利用高分辨率中尺度WRF-ARW模式,进行云辐射强迫效应对热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)发展和结构影响的敏感性试验研究。结果表明,云辐射强迫效应主要通过改变TC云区的辐射分布影响对流活动,进而影响TC的发展和结构。在TC发展阶段,TC内区对流云区云顶的强烈辐射冷却作用和云层内部的辐射增温过程降低了TC中上层的静力稳定度,中下层的变化相对不明显。总体上考虑云辐射效应的试验更易激发出更多更强的对流活动,有利于TC的发展及TC尺度的增大。鉴于云辐射强迫对TC的影响,在TC数值预报中需要更加重视云辐射强迫效应。     

层状云微物理参数反演及其辐射效应的个例研究

利用毫米波云雷达、微波辐射计联合反演方法,对2015年11月11日安徽寿县的一次层状云过程的云参数进行了反演,将所得云参数加入到SBDART辐射传输模式中,进行辐射通量计算,并将计算的地面辐射通量与观测的地面辐射通量进行了对比分析。研究表明:1)利用毫米波雷达和微波辐射计数据联合反演的云参数比较可靠;2)利用SBDART模式并结合反演的云参数,可以准确实时地计算地面及其他高度层的长短波辐射通量;3)在反演的云参数中,光学厚度对地面各种辐射通量的影响是最大的,云层的光学厚度越大,到达地面的太阳短波辐射越小,地面反射短波辐射也越小。另外云底温度越高,云体向下发射的红外长波辐射越大。地面向上的长波辐射是地面温度的普朗克函数,随地面温度而变;4)云对地面的短波辐射强迫为负值,对地面有降温的作用。云对地面的长波辐射强迫是一个正值,对地面有一个增温的作用;5)云对地面的净辐射强迫随时间变化很大,它的正负与太阳高度角和云参数有关。     

沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫全球分布的模拟研究

为了定景了解沙尘气溶胶对气候的影响,文中利用一个改进的辐射传输模式,结合伞球气溶胶数据集(G-ADS),计算了晴空条件下,冬夏两季沙尘气溶胶的直接辐射强迫在对流层顶和地面的全球分布,并讨论了云对沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫的影响.计算结果表明,对北半球冬季和夏季而言,在对流层顶沙尘气溶胶的全球短波辐射强迫的平均值分别为-0.477和-0.501 W/m2;长波辐射强迫分别为0.11和0.085 W/m2;全球平均短波地面辐射强迫冬夏两季分别为-1.362和-1.559 W/m2;长波辐射强迫分别为0.274和0.23 W/m2.沙尘气溶胶在对流层顶和地面的负辐射强迫的绝对值郁随太阳天顶角的余弦和地表反照率的增加而增大;地表反照率对沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫的强度和分布都有重要影响.研究指出:云对沙尘气溶胶的直接辐射强迫的影响不仅取决于云量,而且取决于云的高度和云水路径,以及地面反照率和太阳高度角等综合因素.中云和低云对沙尘气溶胶在对流层顶的短波辐射强迫的影响比高云明显.云的存在都使对流层顶长波辐射强迫减少,其中低云的影响最为明显.因此,在估算沙尘气溶胶总的直接辐射强迫时,云的贡献不可忽视.     

中国东部气溶胶在天气尺度上的辐射强迫和对地面气温的影响

本文应用WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecasting—Chemistry)模式研究中国东部地区气溶胶及其部分组分(硫酸盐、硝酸盐和黑碳气溶胶)在天气尺度下的辐射强迫和对地面气温的影响。5个无明显降水时间段(2006年8月23～25日、2008年11月10～12日、2008年12月16～18日、2009年1月15～17日和2009年4月27～29日)的模拟显示,气溶胶浓度呈现显著的白天低,夜间高的日变化特征,且北方区域(29.8°～42.6°N,110.2°～120.3°E)平均PM_2.5近地面浓度(40～80 μg m-3)高于南方区域(22.3°～29.9°N,109.7°～120.2°E,30～47 μg m-3)。气溶胶对地面2 m温度(地面气温)有明显的降温效果,在早上08:00(北京时,下同)和下午17:00左右最为显著,最高可降低约0.2～1 K,同时气溶胶的参与改善了模式对地面气温的模拟。本文还通过对2006年8月23～25日一次个例的模拟,定量分析了气溶胶及其部分组分(硫酸盐、硝酸盐和黑碳气溶胶)的总天气效应(直接效应+间接效应)、直接效应和间接效应分别对到达地面的短波辐射和地面气温的影响。北方区域平均气溶胶直接效应所造成的短波辐射强迫要高于南方区域,分别为-11.3 W m-2和-5.8 W m-2,导致地面气温分别降低了0.074 K和0.039 K。南方区域平均气溶胶间接效应所产的短波辐射强迫高于北方区域,分别为-14.4 W m-2和-12.4 W m-2,引起的地面气温的改变分别为-0.094 K和-0.035 K。对于气溶胶组分,硫酸盐气溶胶的直接效应和间接效应的作用相当,其总效应在北方和南方区域平均短波辐射强迫分别为-7.0 W m-2和-10.5 W m-2,对地面气温的影响为-0.062 K和-0.074 K,而硝酸盐气溶胶的作用略小。黑碳气溶胶使得北方和南方区域平均到达地表的太阳短波辐射分别减少了6.5 W m-2和5.8 W m-2,而地表气温则分别增加了0.053 K和0.017 K,相比于间接效应,黑碳气溶胶的直接效应的影响更加显著。     

华南黑碳气溶胶浓度与南海夏季风关系的年代际突变

利用重建的华南区域黑碳气溶胶(Black Carbon, BC)浓度资料,分析其与南海夏季风在年际尺度上的关系。结果表明,华南区域BC浓度与南海夏季风的关系在2000年前后有明显的突变,由显著负相关变为显著正相关,即由高BC浓度弱季风变为高BC浓度强季风。通过合成对比分析,发现1988—1999年(第一时间段)的华南BC主要气候效应是间接辐射强迫作用:华南BC使云粒子半径减小,抑制华南区域春季降水,增加了云的生命期,从而使到达地面的短波辐射减少,表面和低层大气降温。负温度异常激发了异常反气旋,在南海区域即有东风异常。到夏季,东风异常减弱了季风强度,同时抑制了南海地区的降水。2000—2010年(第二时间段)的华南BC主要气候效应是直接辐射强迫作用:春季高BC浓度通过直接气候效应,增暖大气,加强降水,但是雨日减少,从而使到达地面的短波辐射增多,表面和低层大气增温。正温度异常激发了异常气旋,在南海区域即有西风异常一直维持到夏季,增大了季风强度,同时增强了南海地区的降水。     

中国地区云对地-气系统辐射强迫温度效应的气候研究

文中利用地球辐射平衡试验 (ERBE)和国际卫星云气候计划 (ISCCP)提供的地 气系统行星反射率、射出长波辐射 (OLR)和云量资料 ,计算了中国地区年、月平均总云量对地 气系统短波辐射、长波辐射以及净辐射强迫的温度效应和敏感性系数 ,并讨论了云对各辐射分量强迫的温度效应与总云量的关系。结果表明 :地 气系统云辐射强迫温度效应与总云量间具有较明显的曲线相关。云辐射强迫温度效应及其敏感性系数具有明显的时空变化特点。就中国全国平均而言 ,各月地 气系统云辐射强迫净温度效应一般表现为降温作用。     

青藏高原地区气溶胶直接辐射强迫的数值模拟研究

通过比较EMAC模式模拟结果和卫星观测结果证实了模式的可信性,进而利用模拟结果分析研究了2010～2012年青藏高原上空气溶胶光学厚度及其直接辐射强迫的时空分布规律。结果表明:所有气溶胶组分中,沙尘、水溶性气溶胶和气溶胶中液态水是高原的主要消光物质,三者年平均消光占比分别为0.27、0.20和0.49。2011年夏季纳布罗火山爆发,高空气溶胶消光在海拔14 km以上显著增强。青藏高原气溶胶在大气顶和地表的直接辐射强迫分布总体上由北向南递减,沙尘气溶胶在高原北部边缘大气顶产生正辐射强迫,气溶胶大气层直接辐射强迫对大气有增温效应,主要出现在沙尘含量高的地区。此外,受纳布罗火山爆发的影响,平流层气溶胶在2011年秋、冬季产生了明显较强的负辐射强迫,相比于无火山爆发的2010年和 2012年,青藏高原上空平流层气溶胶负辐射强迫在2011年秋季和冬季分别增加了55.50%和52.38%。     

CMIP5模式对青藏高原地表温度的模拟与预估

利用1980~2005年英国东英吉利亚大学的 CRU全球陆面月平均地面数据集资料，对历史数据进行集合平均，结合泰勒诊断，开展青藏高原地区地表温度及其变化趋势的统计分析与模式模拟，并通过CRU观测资料和模式的历史资料集合平均得到年平均地表温度变化趋势，从而对高原未来的地表温度进行预估。结果表明:CMIP5中大多数模式对高原地区的年平均地表温度的模拟效果较好，但会受到季节差异的影响；多模式集合平均的模拟能力总体比单个模式模拟的性能更优，与观测场的数据更加接近；青藏高原未来的增温趋势与外辐射强迫的强度呈正相关，高原地区对高浓度排放情景下的增温效应比中低浓度更加剧烈，并且升温值在21世纪末极有可能突破6.5℃。      

发达国家HFCs管控政策法规及对中国的启示

作为受《蒙特利尔议定书》控制的氟氯化碳（CFCs）和氟氯烃（HCFCs）的替代品,氢氟碳化物（HFCs）由于具有较高的全球增温潜势（GWP）值而在近年受到国际社会的广泛关注。目前部分发达国家已制定并实施相关政策法规控制HFCs的生产、消费和排放,如欧盟的新F-Gas法规以配额管理的方式对HFCs进行总量控制,美国通过新制冷剂替代计划（SNAP）计划筛选替代品及实施禁用年限逐步替代HFCs等。通过分析比较发达国家政策法规的区别和共性,建议中国在未来应将HFCs控制纳入法律法规的管制范畴,并遵循总量控制原则,利用全生命周期管理的手段逐步实现HFCs的排放管控。     

Global warming potentials modified for surface radiative forcing for use in surface energy balance models

The radiative impact of greenhouse gases in warming the Earth varies significantly, depending on whether one considers the forcing at the tropopause or at the surface. Compared to the former, the surface forcing for some greenhouse gases is reduced by the interference of water vapour. Hence, we calculate alternative surface global warming potentials (SGWPs) that are derived from the surface forcing radiation of greenhouse gases for potential use in surface radiative energy balance models (SREBMs). For gases with a large water vapour overlap, the SGWPs are typically 30% smaller than current GWPs; for gases with relatively little overlap, the SGWPs are larger by more than 33%. These results may be used in conjunction with SREBMs as an additional means of calculating climate change, and may lead to an altered emissions budget compared to that outlined by the current Kyoto agreement.     

Metrics of Climate Change: Assessing Radiative Forcing and Emission Indices

In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and global warming potentials (GWPs), in terms of their scientific performance. Radiative forcing is assessed in terms of questions such as the utility of the concept, uncertainties and sensitivity to key assumptions. The assessment of emission indices focuses on the climate and other resulting impacts (end points) against which emissions are weighted; the extent to which (and how) time dependence is included, with regard to both emission control and impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken into account in the further development of refined metrics of climate change.     

黑碳气溶胶辐射强迫全球分布的模拟研究

利用一个改进的辐射传输模式,结合全球气溶胶数据集（GADS）,计算晴空条件下冬夏两季黑碳气溶胶的直接辐射强迫在对流层顶和地面的全球分布。计算结果表明,与温室气体引起的整层大气都是正的辐射强迫不同,黑碳气溶胶的辐射强迫在对流层顶为正值,而在地面的辐射强迫却是负值。作者从理论上解释了造成这种结果的原因。对北半球冬季和夏季而言,在对流层顶黑碳气溶胶的全球辐射强迫的平均值分别为0.085W/m2和0.155 W/m2,在地面则分别为-0.37 W/m2和-0.63 W/m2。虽然气溶胶的辐射强迫主要依赖于其本身的光学性质和在大气中的浓度,太阳高度角和地表反照率对黑碳气溶胶的辐射强迫会产生很大的影响。研究指出:黑碳气溶胶在对流层顶正的辐射强迫和在地面负的辐射强迫的绝对值都随太阳天顶角的余弦和地表反照率的增加线性增大;地表反照率对黑碳气溶胶辐射强迫的强度和分布都有重要影响。黑碳气溶胶的辐射强迫分布具有明显的纬度变化特征,冬夏两季的大值区都位于30°N~90°N之间,表明人类活动是造成黑碳气溶胶辐射强迫的主要原因。     

Regional Climate Effects of Internally and Externally Mixed Aerosols over China

A regional climate model is employed to simulate the aerosols(dust,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) and their direct effect on the climate over China.The emphasis is on the direct radiative forcing due to the change in mixing state of aerosols.The results show that direct radiative forcing is significantly different between externally and internally mixed aerosols.At the top of the atmosphere(TOA),the radiative forcing of externally mixed aerosols is larger than that of internally mixed ones,especially in the Tarim desert region where the difference is about 0.7 W m 2.At the surface,however,the situation becomes opposite,especially in the Sichuan basin where the difference is about-1.4 W m 2.Nonetheless,either externally or internally mixed aerosols in China can result in a significant cooling effect,except for the warming in South China in winter and the slight warming in North China in February.The cooling effect induced by externally mixed aerosols is weaker than that induced by internally mixed aerosols,and this is more obvious in spring and winter than in summer and autumn.In spring and summer,the inhibiting effect of externally mixed aerosols on precipitation is less than that of internally mixed aerosols,whereas in autumn and winter the difference is not obvious.     

Radiative effect of black carbon aerosol on seasonal variation in snow depth in the Northern-Hemisphere

In this research, we studied the effects of black carbon (BC) aerosol radiative forcing on seasonal variation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) using numerical simulations with the NASA finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) forced with monthly varying three-dimensional aerosol distributions from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport Model (GOCART). The results show that atmospheric warming due to black carbon aerosols subsequently warm the atmosphere and land surfaces, especially those over Eurasia. As a result, the snow depth in Eurasia was greatly reduced in late winter and spring, and the reduction in snow cover decreased the surface albedo. Our surface energy balance analysis shows that the surface warming due to aerosol absorption causes early snow melting and further increases surface-atmosphere warming through snow/ice albedo feedback. Therefore, BC aerosol forcing may be an important factor affecting the snow/ice albedo in the NH.     

Climate sensitivity to cloud optical properties

A radiative–convective model was developed to investigate the sensitivity of climate to cloud optical properties and the related feedback processes. This model demonstrates that the Earth's surface temperature increases with cloud optical depth when the clouds are very thin but decreases with cloud optical depth when the cloud shortwave (solar) radiative forcing is larger than the cloud longwave (terrestrial) radiative forcing. When clouds are included in the model, the magnitude of the greenhouse effect due to a doubling of the CO₂ concentration varies with the cloudoptical depth: the thicker the clouds, the weaker the greenhouse warming. In addition, a small variation in the cloud droplet size has a larger impact on the equilibrium state temperature in the lower atmosphere than the warming caused by a doubling of the CO₂ concentration: a 2% increase in the average cloud droplet size per degree increase in temperature doubles the warming caused by the doubling of the CO₂ concentration. These findings suggest that physically reliable correlations between the cloud droplet size and macrophysical meteorological variables such as temperature, wind and water vapor fields are needed on a global climate scale to assess the climate impact of increases in greenhouse gases.     

Radiative forcing from surface NO x emissions: spatial and seasonal variations

The global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM has been used to follow changes in the tropospheric distributions of methane CH₄ and ozone O₃ following the emission of pulses of the oxides of nitrogen NO _x . Month-long emission pulses of NO _x produce deficits in CH₄ mixing ratios that bring about negative radiative forcing (climate cooling) and decay away with e-folding times of 10–15 years. They also produce short-term excesses in O₃ mixing ratios that bring about positive radiative forcing (climate warming) that decay over several months to produce deficits, with their attendant negative radiative forcing (climate cooling) that decays away in step with the CH₄ deficits. Total time-integrated net radiative forcing is markedly influenced by cancellation between the negative CH₄ and long-term O₃ contributions and the positive short-term O₃ contribution to leave a small negative residual. Consequently, total net radiative forcing from NO _x emission pulses and the global warming potentials derived from them, show a strong dependence on the magnitudes, locations and seasons of the emissions. These dependences are illustrated using the Asian continent as an example and demonstrate that there is no simple robust relationship between continental-scale NO _x emissions and globally-integrated radiative forcing. We find that the magnitude of the time-integrated radiative forcing from NO _x -driven CH₄ depletion tends to approach and outweigh that from ozone enhancement, leaving net time-integrated radiative forcings and global warming potentials negative (climate cooling) in contrast to the situation for aircraft NO _x (climate warming). Control of man-made surface NO _x emissions alone may lead to positive radiative forcing (climate warming).     

Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks

Anticipated future warming of the climate system increases the need for accurate climate projections. A central problem are the large uncertainties associated with these model projections, and that uncertainty estimates are often based on expert judgment rather than objective quantitative methods. Further, important climate model parameters are still given as poorly constrained ranges that are partly inconsistent with the observed warming during the industrial period. Here we present a neural network based climate model substitute that increases the efficiency of large climate model ensembles by at least an order of magnitude. Using the observed surface warming over the industrial period and estimates of global ocean heat uptake as constraints for the ensemble, this method estimates ranges for climate sensitivity and radiative forcing that are consistent with observations. In particular, negative values for the uncertain indirect aerosol forcing exceeding –1.2 Wm^–2 can be excluded with high confidence. A parameterization to account for the uncertainty in the future carbon cycle is introduced, derived separately from a carbon cycle model. This allows us to quantify the effect of the feedback between oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake and global warming on global temperature projections. Finally, probability density functions for the surface warming until year 2100 for two illustrative emission scenarios are calculated, taking into account uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, model parameters and the observed temperature records. We find that warming exceeds the surface warming range projected by IPCC for almost half of the ensemble members. Projection uncertainties are only consistent with IPCC if a model-derived upper limit of about 5 K is assumed for climate sensitivity.     

The role of ENSO in global ocean temperature changes during 1955–2011 simulated with a 1D climate model

Global average ocean temperature variations to 2,000 m depth during 1955–2011 are simulated with a 40 layer 1D forcing-feedback-mixing model for three forcing cases. The first case uses standard anthropogenic and volcanic external radiative forcings. The second adds non-radiative internal forcing (ocean mixing changes initiated in the top 200 m) proportional to the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to represent an internal mode of natural variability. The third case further adds ENSO-related radiative forcing proportional to MEI as a possible natural cloud forcing mechanism associated with atmospheric circulation changes. The model adjustable parameters are net radiative feedback, effective diffusivities, and internal radiative (e.g., cloud) and non-radiative (ocean mixing) forcing coefficients at adjustable time lags. Model output is compared to Levitus ocean temperature changes in 50 m layers during 1955–2011 to 700 m depth, and to lag regression coefficients between satellite radiative flux variations and sea surface temperature between 2000 and 2010. A net feedback parameter of 1.7Wm^?2 K^?1 with only anthropogenic and volcanic forcings increases to 2.8Wm^?2 K^?1 when all ENSO forcings (which are one-third radiative) are included, along with better agreement between model and observations. The results suggest ENSO can influence multi-decadal temperature trends, and that internal radiative forcing of the climate system affects the diagnosis of feedbacks. Also, the relatively small differences in model ocean warming associated with the three cases suggests that the observed levels of ocean warming since the 1950s is not a very strong constraint on our estimates of climate sensitivity.