南京地区冬季大气冰核特征及其与气溶胶关系的研究

2011年11月15日～12月2日期间对南京地区近地面大气气溶胶和冰核进行了同步观测,综合分析了 冰核浓度的特征及其与气溶胶粒子浓度的关系。结果表明:活化温度T_a为-20℃,水面过饱和度为1%时,南京地区冰核浓度N_IN为0.352 L-1,与0.01～10 μm气溶胶数浓度比值仅为4×10-8。冰核活化温度越低,湿度越大,冰核浓度越高。雾和降雨对冰核都有明显的清除作用。对比不同气团对南京地区冰核的影响发现,偏东方向的污染气团中冰核以及气溶胶的浓度最高,但是来自西北地区的气团中冰核占气溶胶的比例最高,这可能是由于冰相核化能力较强的沙尘气溶胶导致的。分析冰核与不同粒径段气溶胶的相关性发现,较大粒径气溶胶的表面积浓度与冰核相关性更高,本文也得到了由活化温度T_a和粒径大于0.5 μm气溶胶数浓度N_{0.5～10 μm}共同计算冰核浓度的经验公式。     

我国不同背景地区大气冰核浓度特征及参数化

为深入了解我国不同背景地区大气冰核浓度特征,本文通过在我国不同地区进行大气冰核及气溶胶的采样观测。研究发现：观测期间,黄山光明顶的冰核浓度数值均值为2.208 L^-1;南京地区的冰核浓度数值均值为7.16 L^-1;泰山山顶的冰核浓度数值均值为3.455 L^-1;泰山山底的冰核浓度数值均值为4.818 L^-1;新疆地区无沙尘天气冰核浓度数值均值为11.27 L^-1;新疆有沙尘天气冰核浓度数值均值为51.812 5 L^-1。研究给出了不同背景地区的大气冰核浓度的温度谱和湿度谱的分布。同时,研究发现,冰核数浓度与粒径大于0.5μm的气溶胶粒子数浓度的相关性较高,也就是气溶胶粒子中大颗粒所占比例越高,冰核数浓度越高。此外,还建立了基于活化温度、过饱和度以及大于0.5μm气溶胶粒子数浓度的冰核参数化方案,它们可以分别适用于沙漠地表,相对清洁的背景区域和人为污染较多的城市背景。     

福建古田人工增雨试验区大气冰核观测研究

为了解福建省古田人工增雨试验区大气冰核特征,2017年5-6月利用5 L便携式混合云室在古田站、石塔山站开展大气冰核观测,对大气冰核在不同海拔的分布特征、差异、来源及其与气象条件的相关性进行分析。结果表明:(1)当降水强度>5 mm·h^-1时大气冰核受雨水冲刷影响明显;(2)不同活化温度下,各站下午观测的大气冰核浓度基本上大于上午;(3)古田站大气冰核浓度与温度正相关,与气压负相关,其余相关性不大;(4)西南来源的大气冰核浓度高于东面台湾海峡来源,相同来源下低海拔大气冰核浓度略高于高海拔;(5)相比我国其他城市,古田试验区测到的大气冰核浓度在活化温度为-20^-10℃时偏高,-30^-25℃时偏低;(6)当活化温度为-10℃时冰核浓度极低,古田试验区宜开展冷云催化人工增雨试验。     

在线连续流量扩散云室对华北冬季大气冰核的观测分析

利用国内首台在线连续流量扩散云室,2017年冬季在华北地区高山站开展了大气冰核观测;结合常规气象要素、降水滴谱、气溶胶观测,分析了大气冰核数浓度特征,并对冰核活化参数化方法以及降雪对冰核的影响进行了研究。结果表明:（1）大气冰核在不同时间的浓度差异较大,?20°C时数浓度变化范围为2.50～76.8 L?1,平均值为18.347 L?1;（2）大气冰核浓度随活化温度降低呈指数增加趋势,随过饱和度增加呈指数增加,凝华核化所占比例约为18.64%;（3）大气冰核与粒径大于0.5 μm的气溶胶数浓度的关系可用参数化表示,相关性大于仅基于活化温度建立的参数化公式;（4）降雪过程大气冰核具有先增加后减少的特征。降雪开始后大气冰核数浓度增加,降雪后期系统过境伴随的大风,对气溶胶的清洗作用明显,大气冰核随之减少。本研究为在线连续流量扩散云室类型的冰核观测仪在国内首次使用,所建立的冰核参数化公式有助于华北地区冬季地形云及其降水的微物理特征研究,同时在云模式的发展和人工影响天气研究中也有重要的参考意义。     

天津城区春节期间大气气溶胶污染特征 和数浓度分布

利用天津城区2009-2014年春节期间大气气溶胶观测资料和相关气象资料,重点分析2013和2014年春节期间气溶胶污染特征,探求燃放烟花爆竹以及气象条件对春节期间大气气溶胶的影响。结果表明,受燃放烟花爆竹影响,春节期间PM_(2.5)质量浓度最高值均发生在除夕夜间;持续雾霾天气条件下燃放烟花爆竹,造成2013年除夕夜间PM_(2.5)质量浓度峰值达到1240μg·m～(-3),是近年来最严重的一次;2014年春节期间烟花爆竹燃放量有所减少,加之空气扩散条件较为有利,PM_(2.5)质量浓度显著低于2013年;不同天气条件下,气溶胶数浓度谱分布特征存在明显差异,燃放烟花爆竹期间气溶胶数浓度水平与严重雾-霾天气相当。     

西安新颗粒物生成事件与PM_(2.5)污染形成关系

利用中国气象局秦岭气溶胶与云微物理野外科学试验基地扫描电迁移率粒径谱仪(SMPS, scanning mobility particle sizer, Model 3034)观测的2017年11月1—30日颗粒物粒径谱数据,给出西安9次新颗粒物生成(new particle formation, NPF)事件的统计特征,并结合3次PM_(2.5)污染过程,讨论NPF事件与西安PM_(2.5)污染的可能关系。结果表明:(1)NPF事件一般发生在中午到下午,新颗粒物生成后峰值粒径增长速率平均值为5.1±1.8 nm·h~(-1),凝结核模态颗粒物数浓度的最大净增长量(net maximum increase in nucleation mode particles number concentration, NMINP)平均值为0.63×10~4 cm~(-3),NPF事件不仅增加了大气中凝结核模态颗粒物数浓度,还增加了爱根核模态和积聚模态颗粒物数浓度;NPF事件有67%存在粒径的持续增长,其中3次事件峰值粒径增长最为显著,最大值增长至175 nm附近。(2)NPF事件发生后,大气中PM_(2.5)质量浓度随颗粒物峰值粒径增大呈增高趋势。(3)3次NPF事件到PM_(2.5)污染过程中PM_(2.5)质量浓度与峰值粒径、积聚模态颗粒物数浓度和凝结汇均呈现指数正相关关系,当峰值粒径为100～120 nm时,PM_(2.5)质量浓度高于75μg·m~(-3),积聚模态颗粒物数浓度持续高于其他两个模态颗粒物数浓度,出现PM_(2.5)污染。     

沈阳春夏季大气冰核浓度的观测研究

为了解沈阳地区大气冰核浓度的时空分布状况,2010年起开始对沈阳地区的大气冰核浓度分布进行观测和研究.地面采用Bigg型混合云室法和滤膜法进行冰核气溶胶的采样测量,高空利用辽宁省人工影响天气办公室租用的人工增雨飞机进行滤膜法采样.采样滤膜的处理都是统一在活化温度-15℃及冰面过饱和度20％、水面过饱和度3％的湿度条件下进行的.根据取得的部分观测资料,给出了沈阳春夏季大气冰核的浓度及冰核温度谱分布参数,分析了冰核浓度在3～6月各月以及在不同天气状况下的分布特征,初步给出了大气冰核浓度的尺度谱分布及其随高度的变化.     

南京地区大气冰核浓度的测量及分析

2011年5～8月期间使用5L混合型云室以及静力扩散云室对南京不同成核机制的大气冰核进行了观测,进而分析了近地层冰核浓度特征。结果表明:活化温度为－20°C时,5L混合型云室观测的总冰核浓度为20.11个/L,静力扩散云室模拟高水汽(计算的云室内水面过饱和度为5%)和低水汽(计算的云室内冰面过饱和度为5%)条件下冰核浓度分别为0.93个/L以及0.29个/L。晴好条件下冰核浓度具有明显的日变化特征,白天冰核浓度高于夜间;在下午时段冰核浓度达到全天最高值,这说明大气冰核可能与大气湍流强度、人类活动以及工业污染有关。降水对冰核的清除作用明显,台风系统过程中冰核浓度明显增加。南京地区冰核浓度随温度降低和湿度增加而增加。后向轨迹模式分析表明东北海洋气团冰核浓度最高,不同气团中冰核浓度的差异随着活化温度的降低而减小。个例分析秸秆燃烧生成的PM₁(大气中直径小于或者等于1 μm的颗粒物)与冰核关系发现燃烧产物对冰核有一定的贡献。     

南京一次重霾天气纳米气溶胶观测研究

为加深对南京地区重霾天气过程纳米尺度气溶胶物理特征的了解,对2017年12月21—25日的一次重霾天气过程进行了综合探测,利用宽范围粒径谱仪观测了此次过程中10～1 000 nm颗粒物数浓度,并结合能见度等气象要素,对重霾期间纳米气溶胶谱分布进行了分析。结果表明:此次霾重污染过程出现在低温、高湿、气压上升期间;与非重污染时期相比,重污染期间N_(10-20)与N_(20-100)降低,N_(100-1000)升高;重污染期间气溶胶粒子平均数浓度为17 035个/cm~3,低于非重污染期间粒子数浓度,N_(100-1000)占总数浓度的55.05%;重霾发生期间纳米气溶胶数浓度谱为单峰结构,峰值在100 nm附近,随着污染加重,纳米气溶胶峰值粒径向大粒径偏移,粒子向大粒径段集中;不同温度对不同粒径粒子数浓度的影响不同,20～100 nm粒径段气溶胶与数浓度与温度呈反相关性,100～500 nm粒子数浓度与温度呈正相关性.     

用滤膜法观测大气冰核的静力扩散云室

用滤膜法观测大气冰核的静力扩散云室本项目是在中国气象局云物理基金资助下完成的。它是通过模拟冰核活化环境对大气冰核（或人工冰核）浓度进行观测，研究冰核活化机制，为云物理和人工影响天气的研究提供基本参数的设备。该设备由大气气溶胶粒子滤膜取样器、扩散云室及...     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on