夏季长三角城市群热岛效应及其对大气边界层结构影响的数值模拟

利用WRF/Noah/UCM模拟系统对长三角地区城市群进行了2003—2007年共5个夏季的高分辨率数值模拟,研究了夏季长三角城市群热岛效应及其对大气边界层影响。开展了2组平行的积分试验,控制试验为MODIS遥感资料给出的地表特征分布,敏感性试验将长三角地区的城市表面改为农田类型,其他与控制试验完全相同。两组试验的对比分析表明城市群热岛存在明显的日变化特征,热岛效应白天向上发展较高,夜间地表热岛强度明显增强。城市热岛导致午后城市上空产生强烈的局地上升气流,从而使得低层大气以补偿流的形式向城市辐合,然而在夜间上升运动很微弱。伴随这种热力状况的日变化,大气边界层高度也存在明显的日变化,白天增高,夜间降低。同时,白天城市边界层内风速明显减小,夜间地面风速减小加剧,但夜间边界层顶风速却有所增强。另外,城市化还会导致“城市干岛”现象,且其白天强度大于夜间。     

中国南方春季大尺度大气水汽汇时空变化特征

用1958-2004年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料分析了中国南方春季大尺度大气水汽汇的时空变化特征。结果表明：华南中东部、广西北部-湖南西部-贵州东部地区是中国南方春季水汽汇的两个主要变异中心区。华南中东部春季水汽汇具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,并以年代际方差占优;广西北部-湖南西部-贵州东部地区春季水汽汇以年际变化为主。华南中东部以及广西北部-湖南西部-贵州东部地区水汽汇的强度异常与东亚上空水汽输送异常导致上述地区垂直积分的水汽通量辐合的异常密切相关,当中国南方上空有西南（东北）风水汽通量距平,即西南风水汽输送增强（减弱）时,则上述地区上空的水汽汇偏强（偏弱）。     

WRF/NCAR模拟的夏季长三角城市群区域多城市热岛和地表能量平衡

利用一个包含城市冠层效应的区域模式(WRF/NCAR),对长三角特大城市群的夏季气候效应进行了5 a(2003—2007年)高分辨数值模拟,通过长三角地区有无城市的对比试验分析,重点分析了城市群所造成的多城市热岛和地表能量平衡及其日变化特征。结果表明:城市化会导致显著的地表升温,但昼夜不同的升温幅度造成城市地表温度日较差的降低,以及部分郊区日较差增加;城市化也减小城市近地面风速,但沿海城市升温造成的热力差异,增大白天的海风并降低夜间的陆风。同时大范围城市群的热岛能够显著降低低层气压,导致部分海面风速持续的增加;城市下垫面具有很小的潜热通量,但感热通量和热存储量较大,白天的热岛逐渐增加,并在日落前达到最大,夜间热岛基本维持,但在日出前后迅速减弱;较大的入射短波辐射、较小的向下长波辐射和较低的10 m风速能够减弱白天的热岛,而增强夜间的热岛,并且使热岛峰值从17时延后至20时出现;反之亦然。     

近十年长江三角洲城市热岛变化及其与城市群发展的关系

利用MODIS(MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer,中分辨率成像光谱仪)白天地表温度、地表类型产品和DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据,分析了长江三角洲(简称长三角)地区城市群温度场及其变化的分布特征。结果表明:长三角城市群热岛在春夏季最强,秋季次之,冬季最弱;2001年以来,长三角地区夏季热岛区面积不断变大,其中强热岛区的增长速度最大,导致温度过渡区面积大幅减小;各城市群中,以苏锡常城市群的强热岛区增长最快,呈现与上海热岛连成一体成为大城市群热岛区,并沿海岸线有向杭州湾发展成为更大城市群热岛区的趋势;城郊地区的地表温度增温幅度最大,夜间灯光灰度值的加强趋势也最高,城市地区几乎没有增温,夜间灯光灰度值的加强趋势也最小,且地表温度和夜间灯光灰度值的空间相关性较好,表明长三角近十年地表温度的精细变化与城市化进程密切相关。     

新冠肺炎疫情期间中国人为碳排放和大气污染物的变化

利用行业经济活动数据、1 580个地面监测站和6套卫星反演数据,分析了我国新冠肺炎疫情期间人为碳排放和主要大气污染物的变化。与2019年第一季度相比,2020年同期我国碳排放降低9.8%,其中交通部门降幅最大达到43.4%。与2019年2-3月相比,疫情期间全国地表臭氧浓度同比升高1.9 nL/L(5%),其中华北平原以降低为主,东南部地区以上升为主。PM2.5浓度同比下降12.6μg·m^-3(24.9%),其中长三角降幅最大。二氧化氮(NO2)的地面浓度和对流层柱浓度在京津冀、珠三角和长三角都降低20%~30%,体现了高低层的一致性。地面一氧化碳(CO)浓度同比降低17%,而对流层CO柱浓度升高2.5%,可能原因是境外生物质燃烧输送提升了我国南方高层大气的CO浓度。中东部地区气溶胶光学厚度显著降低,导致地表晴空短波辐射同比升高11.6 W·m^-2(9.6%)。     

基于MODIS时间序列的内蒙古城市热(冷)岛效应研究

基于MODIS遥感卫星数据,反演地表温度,研究内蒙古各城市昼夜城市热岛空间分布和季节变化特征。结果显示:(1)白天内蒙古西部地区城市热岛效应弱;中部地区除集宁外,城市热岛出现概率呈对半趋势,没有东部地区城市热岛效应强;东部地区城市热岛效应出现概率最多,以赤峰和通辽尤为显著。夜间全区城市热岛出现的概率比白天大,有些城市达到了100%的现象。(2)内蒙古城市热岛并没有表现出统一季节变化规律,白天,冬季出现城市热岛的有锡林浩特、海拉尔、集宁和通辽;夏季为热岛的城市有呼和浩特、乌兰浩特。夜间,呼和浩特全年热岛,基本全年热岛(除个别月份)的有集宁、通辽、乌海、乌兰浩特和锡林浩特;春季为热岛的是临河;秋季为热岛的有赤峰和东胜;热岛有季节变化规律的是巴彦浩特、海拉尔、包头。(3)呼和浩特夏季6-8月呈现热岛效应;冬季12月依旧表现为热岛,且夜间城市热岛更严重。(4)集宁除5月、7月、12月为冷岛,其余月份为热岛; 7月白天为弱冷岛,夜间为热岛,城郊温差较小;冬季12月白天集宁市区为热岛效应,夜间集宁市区呈现弱冷岛效应。     

WRF/NCAR模拟的夏季长三角城市群区域 多城市热岛和地表能量平衡

利用一个包含城市冠层效应的区域模式（WRF/NCAR）,对长三角特大城市群的夏季气候效应进行了5 a（2003—2007年）高分辨数值模拟,通过长三角地区有无城市的对比试验分析,重点分析了城市群所造成的多城市热岛和地表能量平衡及其日变化特征。结果表明：城市化会导致显著的地表升温,但昼夜不同的升温幅度造成城市地表温度日较差的降低,以及部分郊区日较差增加;城市化也减小城市近地面风速,但沿海城市升温造成的热力差异,增大白天的海风并降低夜间的陆风。同时大范围城市群的热岛能够显著降低低层气压,导致部分海面风速持续的增加;城市下垫面具有很小的潜热通量,但感热通量和热存储量较大,白天的热岛逐渐增加,并在日落前达到最大,夜间热岛基本维持,但在日出前后迅速减弱;较大的入射短波辐射、较小的向下长波辐射和较低的10 m风速能够减弱白天的热岛,而增强夜间的热岛,并且使热岛峰值从17时延后至20时出现;反之亦然。     

近56年四川地区不同季节昼夜降水特征分析

本文利用四川地区1961~2016年141个气象站降水资料,分析了四川地区四季夜间和白天降水时空变化分布特征,结果表明:(1)四季夜间降水量占总降水量超过60%和夜间降水次数占总降水次数50%以上的区域分布相似且占四川大部分地区,盆地西部沿山地带以及川东南部分地区四季的夜间降水量和降水次数比值皆较大,攀西地区和川西高原部分地区在多数季节比值也相对较大,而川东北四季的夜间降水同白天降水基本相当。(2)四季的昼夜降水量、春季昼夜以及冬季白天的降水次数的气候趋势系数总体呈现为以盆地西部沿山边缘为分界,川西增加川东减少,增加和减少趋势的分布范围在不同季节有所增减;夏季和秋季的昼夜以及冬季夜间的降水次数除了高原部分地区为弱增加趋势外,四川地区整体表现为减少趋势,且秋季整个降水次数在四川东部以及攀西地区通过99%显著性检验水平。(3)整个四川地区白天和夜间降水次数呈线性减少而降水量在白天和夜间不同季节增减趋势不一致;总的来说,四季夜间降水的年代际变化较白天相对更明显,不同季节昼夜降水在不同年代的线性增减表现不一致,但秋季夜间和白天降水量和降水次数基本在2000年左右之前为线性减少趋势,之后为增加。      

青藏高原东侧MODIS地表温度产品验证

利用青藏高原东侧理塘大气边界层观测站的热红外测温仪和长波辐射表的实测数据,分析了实测地表温度Ts的精度及其影响因子,对MODIS地表温度(LST)产品进行了评估。结果表明,与用红外测温仪测量的地表辐射温度Tr相比,考虑了地表辐射率和大气下行辐射后的地表温度Ts_R偏低,差值随着地表发射率递减,随着长波净辐射递增,白天偏低可达1.9 K,夜间偏低可达1.1 K。当地表温度285 K时,Ts_R与用长波辐射估算的地表温度Ts_L之间的差值集中在2.5 K以内;而当地表温度285 K时,偏差可达10 K。地表发射率的误差≤0.01时,地表温度计算误差≤0.5 K。Tr、Ts_R和Ts_L与LST之间都存在显著正相关,其中Ts_L与LST的相关系数最大。夜间的相关系数大于白天;Terra卫星的相关系数(尤其是白天)大于Aqua卫星。基于LST的Ts_L回归模型估算标准误差为4.4904 K,达到99%的置信水平。     

应用城市地表能量平衡方案研究城市冠层结构对城市热岛的热力影响

用南京大学区域边界层模式NJU-RBLM, 通过对一组理想试验的模拟, 研究了TEB方案 (town energy balance) 和SVAT方案 (soil－vegetation－atmosphere transfer) 模拟城市热岛现象的差异及本质原因, 发现TEB方案对城市热岛 (UHI) 尤其是夜间UHI模拟效果更优, 这是由于TEB方案具备较强模拟城市储热项的能力形成的。此外, 深入探讨UHI对大气边界层热力结构的影响, 发现UHI现象使城市和郊区的近地层位温廓线在清晨和傍晚都存在明显差异, 同时使城市区域气温全天高于郊区, 且日间城乡温差能达到的高度明显高于夜间。分析人为热源和建筑物冠层对UHI的影响时发现: 人为热源对UHI的影响在夜间强于白天, 而建筑物对白天城市湍能的影响强于人为热源的作用。     

A Study on the Mesoscale Convective Systems during the Summer Monsoon Onset over the South China Sea in 1998 Part Ⅱ: Effect of Mesoscale Convective Systems on Large-Scale Fields

The apparent heat sources and apparent moisture sinks, and large-scale wind, temperature as well as the surface pressure fields during the summer monsoon onset over the northern South China Sea (SCS) in 1998 were diagnosed. The results suggested that there was a kind of positive feedback mechanism between large-scale circulations and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Before the monsoon onset, the largescale background provided favorable synoptic and dynamic conditions for the summer monsoon onset and the formation of mesoscale convective activities, whereas after the summer monsoon onset, occurrence of the persistent and extensive mesoscale convective activities produced obvious feedback effect on large-scale circulations. Because of the release of latent heating produced by enhanced convective activities, the intense atmospheric heating appeared over the northern SCS, which resulted in: (1) the meridional temperature gradient over the SCS reversed from upper-level to low-level and then the large-scale circulations were changed seasonally;(2) correspondingly, the surface pressure over the northern SCS deepened continually and formed a broad monsoon trough and the obvious pressure-fall areas, thus making the subtropical high move out of the SCS eventually;(3) with the development of the low pressure circulations in the middle and low troposphere, the MCSs further enhanced and extended southward, which was conducive to the SCS monsoon onset and maintenance over the middle and southern SCS;and (4) the deepening of monsoon trough facilitated the monsoon flow and moisture transport on its southern side, thus the monsoon onset reaching peak period.     

北京一次大暴雨过程视热源和视减湿特征分析

应用高分辨ＴＢＢ亮温资料和逐６小时一次的ＮＣＥＰ／ＮＣＡＲ再分析资料,分析了１９９８年７月５日北京地区发生的一次大暴雨天气过程。结果表明：北京地区雨量分布不均是由于西部山区出现两次对流活动而东部平原地区仅为一次,ＴＢＢ低值区右前方下沉区有利于其后部对流的发展;暴雨阶段视热源（Ｑ１）的视减湿（Ｑ２）局地变化项和平流项均非小项,两者具有反位相变化特征,垂直输送项是视热源和视减湿的主要贡献者;Ｑ１和Ｑ２     

广东大尺度大气水汽汇的年际及年代际变化特征

用1958～2004年实测降雨量和NCEP／NCAR再分析资料，分析了广东地区大尺度水汽汇的年际和年代际变化特征及其与水汽通量变化的关系。结果表明，气候平均而言，广东春夏季大气向地面输送较多水资源，秋季地气间相互交换的水分相当，冬季由地面向大气输送较多的水资源。四季和年水汽汇的年际分量方差贡献均占主导地位，秋、冬季水汽汇的年际分量有约3年的显著周期。除了显著的年际分量外，冬、春季和年水汽汇的年代际分量方差贡献也较显著，占总方差的40％以上，以30多年的长周期变化为主，目前正处于由正位相向负位相转变的过渡期，预示今后广东有偏旱趋势。广东冬春季水汽汇的异常有显著的同相关系。另外，夏、秋季水汽汇的年代际分量有10～15年的显著周期。广东各季大气水汽汇偏强（弱）是由于从热带低纬输送到南海北部至华南地区的水汽增强（减弱），并伴随着水汽通量的辐合的增强（减弱）造成，但各季水汽通量异常分布型是有差别的。     

Improving the scientific assessment of carbon sinks

Abstract

The future role of carbon sinks with reference to the Kyoto Protocol depends significantly on developing an international consensus on carbon-sink assessment and carbon accounting. A clear and practical approach is needed that allows both the scientific community and policy-makers to construct a viable operational framework. This article proposes that a new strategy be developed for carbon-sink assessment based on full carbon accounting (FCA) alongside a separate political tool for carbon accounting. This approach is derived from the experience of the European critical loads (CL) concept, which seeks to quantify levels of pollutants (such as sulfur) that can be absorbed by the environment without causing ecological harm. Crucial to the implementation of such a strategy are robust institutional settings, such as an internationally coordinated monitoring system, open and fair access to the assessment processes, and international research cooperation programs for addressing associated problems of carbon-sink activities.     

北半球冬季中高纬30～60天振荡动能源、汇的特征

利用ECMWF/WMO资料,计算了1985年11月～1986年3月的大气低频动能、低频动能通量散度,详细讨论其冬季平均的水平分布特征,并揭示大气低频动能源和汇的水平传播特征。结果表明:大气低频动能的大值中心正好对应于持续性异常的活动中心,且主要位于大气环流遥相关型PNA和EU波列路径附近,大气低频动能的强源(汇)主要位于西风急流的出口(入口)区;在中高纬地区,大气低频动能源和汇主要呈现向西的纬向传播特征和向北的经向传播特征。     

INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF LARGE-SCALE MOISTURE SINKS OVER GUANGDONG

The interannual and interdecadal variations of moisture sinks over Guangdong are discussed with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and observed precipitation data from 1958 to 2004. The results indicate that climatically, the amount of precipitation is larger than that of evaporation in spring and summer.Precipitation and evaporation almost balance each other in autumn and the amount of evaporation is larger than that of precipitation in winter. The interannual signal dominates the variations of moisture sinks in all seasons in Guangdong with a period of three-year oscillation in autumn and winter. Remarkable interdecadal signal characterized by a period of three-decade oscillation can be identified for winter and spring from seasonally averaged moisture sink data and from annually moisture data, with variance percentage larger than 40%. This result indicates that Guangdong is at a transitional stage from positive anomalies to negative anomalies. The moisture sink anomalies in winter and following spring over Guangdong are usually in-phase. Besides, there exist periodic oscillations with periods of 10 to 15 years in summer and autumn. The positive (negative) anomalies of moisture sinks over Guangdong are due to the intensified (weakened) moisture from the tropical areas being transported to the Southern China, accompanied by an intensified (weakened) moisture convergence.     

World-wide increase in tropospheric methane, 1978–1983

Tropospheric concentrations of methane in remote locations have averaged a yearly world-wide increase of 0.018±0.002 parts per million by volume (ppmv) during the period from January 1978 to December 1983. The concentrations in the north temperate zone are always greater than those in the south temperate zone by 7±1% because the major methane sources are all predominantly located in the northern hemisphere. The average world-wide tropospheric concentration of methane in dry air was 1.625 ppmv at the end of 1983, measured against an NBS standard certified as 0.97 ppmv (but with an accuracy of only ±1%). The world-wide concentration increases are described by a linear equation with a standard deviation of 0.003 ppmv for ten different collection periods during 1978–1983. The precision of measurement of the methane concentration in the atmospheric samples and in the standard was measured to be ±0.4% for each. Repetitive measurements of an air sample collected in November 1977 have shown the same concentration for six years with a standard deviation for these data of ±0.003 ppmv.The causes for the steady increase in methane concentration in the troposphere cannot be fixed with certainty from present data. Contributing causes can include increases in the source strengths from cattle and rice fields. The atmospheric concentrations of CO, CH₄ and HO are all closely coupled with one another, and increased concentrations of CO and/or CH₄ should cause reduced concentrations of HO, which in turn should lengthen the atmospheric lifetimes of CO and CH₄.Among other physical and chemical effects, a increase of 0.18 ppmv per decade should contribute a greenhouse warming of about 0.04°C per decade. Other secondary contributions to the greenhouse effect from increases in CH₄ may arise from methane-induced increases in stratospheric H₂O, in tropospheric O₃, and in numerous other trace species whose concentration is controlled by reaction with HO radicals.An increased CH₄ source strength may result from the effect of increasing atmospheric temperatures on the known aqueous biological CH₄ sources, such as swamps, and may be an added consequence of the greenhouse effect.     

淮河流域水汽收支的若干特征

利用欧洲中心１９８０－１９８６年７年逐日资料和同期淮河流域的降水资料,计算了该地区的大气水汽汇的时间变化和空间分布,并分析了它们与降水量和蒸发量的关系。结果表明：淮河流域的７年平均降水量为８５７．５ｍｍ,年蒸发量为８４２．０ｍｍ,水汽收支大致相当。水汽汇的年际变化较大。７年平均水汽汇最大值在淮河上游信阳一带,最小值位于流域东部。淮河流域平均降水在７月份最大（２１１ｍｍ）,蒸发量同时达到最大（１６７     

Numerical Study on Microphysical Processes of Two Different Snowfall Cases in Northern China

In this paper,two snowfall cases under different weather conditions in northern China are simulated by using the meso scale model MM5.Two-way nesting structure of domains is designed for each case.Among the explicit schemes of MM5,the Reisner graupel scheme is selected to describe the microphysical process. The simulated snow-bands of two cases are basically consistent with observations.The simulated results of microphysical processes are mainly discussed.The hydrometeors and their sources and sinks under different weather backgrounds are described.The feedback effects of microphysical processes on the thermal and dynamic processes are also discussed.Method that outputs the accumulative sources and sinks per hour is used to analyze the distribution characteristics of hydrometeors during the strongest snowfall period.Two sensitivity tests (called heat test and drag test) are conducted to examine the effects of microphysical pro- cesses on cloud produced by the latent heat and drag force. Results have shown that the distribution of particles has a close relation with temperature.The tem- perature of Beijing snowfall is under 0℃and there exist vapor and solid phase particles,while Liaoning snowfall has vapor,liquid,and solid phase particles due to the warm temperature.The distribution of these particles is not the same at different development stages.From the analyses of the characteristics of sources and sinks,it is found that snow is mainly produced by the deposition and accretion with ice.Cloud water is crucial to graupel.The melting of ice-phase particles enhances the rain production.The results of heat tests and drag tests reveal that the microphysical processes have interacted with the dynamic and thermal processes.Latent heat release of hydrometeors feeds back positively on snowfall while the drag force not. At last,comparisons of simulated results have been done between the two different kinds of snowfall cases. The microphysical processes of Liaoning snowfall case is more complicated than those of Beijing snowfall case.The values of the cloud variables are larger and the interactions between the microphysical processes and the thermal and dynamic processes of Liaoning snowfall case are stronger than those of Beijing snowfall case.     

北半球冬季中高纬30～60天振荡动能源,汇的特征

利用ＥＣＭＷＦ／ＷＭＯ资料，计算了１９８５年１１月－１９８６年３月的大气低频动能、低频动能通量散度，详细讨论其冬季平均的水平分布特征，并揭示大气低频动能源和汇的水平传播特征。结果表明：大气低频动能的大值中心正好对应于持续性异常的活动中心，且主要位于大气环流遥相关型ＰＮＡ和ＥＵ波列路径附近，大气低频动的强源（汇）主要位于西风急流的出口（入口）区；在中高纬地区，大气低频动能源和汇主要呈现向西的纬向传播