上海市气象场与SO2浓度数值模拟

采用地形坐标系下适合于复杂地形且满足地－气耦合的静力学三维中－β尺度气象预报模式，使用08时的实测流场经变分法初始化后得到的初始流场，模拟研究了上海地区的局地流场时空演变特征，模式较细致地考虑了湍流，长短波辐射，凝结，蒸发，地表热力平衡等因子，在此基础上，使用有限元法数值求解一阶闭合的三维区拉平流扩散方程，模拟了上海地区的SO2浓度分布，结果表明：上海的局地流场具有明显的日变化特征，受海陆温差的影响明显，日间风速较夜间风速大，风向呈顺时针旋转，在不同稳定层结情况下，高架点源排放的高空污染物对地面的污染物浓度有贡献，会千成地面污染物浓度升高。     

地形追随坐标系下埃特尔位涡的计算

随着数值天气预报模式的日益普及以及位涡在不同天气、气候时、空尺度上的广泛应用,对采用模式输出资料计算的埃特尔（Ertel）位涡的精度提出了更高要求。将气象要素从中尺度模式普遍采用的地形追随坐标系向定义位涡的z或p坐标系的插值过程（插值法）,是导致埃特尔位涡计算误差的主要原因。文中利用地形追随坐标系与z（p）坐标系的变换关系,导出了z坐标系定义的埃特尔位涡在地形追随坐标系中的表达形式,实现了直接在模式格点上计算埃特尔位涡（直接法）,在提高计算精度的同时,保留了其在z坐标系中的物理意义,方便了分析与应用。为了进一步分析直接法在减少计算误差方面的作用,使用WRF模式对2016年7月发生在华北地区复杂地形背景下的一次黄淮气旋爆发过程进行了模拟,利用模式输出资料对此次天气过程中强降水时段插值法计算误差的分布进行了分析。结果表明,利用直接法计算位涡可有效减少插值法引入的计算误差,中低层均方根误差可达0.5 PVU,中高层可达0.3 PVU。将其应用到中小尺度对流性天气精细化结构的分析及气候统计研究中,可以有效减少插值法误差对结果产生的不良影响,提高计算和分析准确度。      

上海市气象场与SO2浓度数值模拟

采用地形坐标系下适合于复杂地形且满足地-气耦合的静力学三维中-β尺度气象预报模式,使用08时的实测流场经变分法初始化后得到的初始流场,模拟研究了上海地区的局地流场时空演变特征。模式较细致地考虑了湍流、长短波辐射、凝结、蒸发、地表热力平衡等因子,在此基础上,使用有限元法数值求解一阶闭合的三维欧拉平流扩散方程,模拟了上海地区的SO₂浓度分布。结果表明:上海的局地流场具有明显的日变化特征,受海陆温差的影响明显,日间风速较夜间风速大,风向呈顺时针旋转;在不稳定层结情况下,高架点源排放的高空污染物对地面的污染物浓度有贡献,会造成地面污染物浓度升高。     

地形湍流拖曳力参数化及在GRAPES中的应用

分辨率的限制使得不能被模式识别的地形称为次网格尺度地形,次网格尺度地形在热力和动力方面对实际大气有着不可忽略的作用,其效应只能通过参数化的形式回馈给模式。分辨率的提高使得与较小尺度地形相联系的地形湍流拖曳力凸显其重要性。数值模式中地形湍流拖曳力的参数化对完善模式物理过程和改善模式近地层预报效果具有积极意义,其方法包括有效粗糙度法和直接参数化法,而GRAPES模式中并未以任何方法考虑次网格尺度地形的影响。该文通过单柱模式比较了有效粗糙度法和直接参数化法的优劣, 发现后者在有些方面优于前者。最后,将应用于实际的一个直接参数化方案接入GRAPES中尺度模式中,进行个例模拟,并与NCEP再分析资料进行对比,结果表明:考虑地形湍流拖曳力方案对模式预报具有改进作用,尤其对局地低层风场具有积极影响。     

应用一简单的混合层模式和数值模式计算复杂地形上方的水平热通量

用二维数值模式模拟了在周期性谷地之上热力引起的局地环流。晴良无风的白天，上坡风和回流把热量从山区输送到谷区，而比湿以相反的方式传输，只要水平尺度小于大约１００公里的临床界宽度，感热的水平交换率具有一水平尺度相似性。     

不同垂直坐标系对垂直速度计算的影响

近年来,随着高精度中尺度数值预报模式和多尺度统一模式的发展,与之相关的一些非静力中尺度模式技术也随之提了出来,垂直坐标系的影响问题就是其中之一。本文借助于高精度美国新一代数值预报模式WRF(Weather Reseach and Forecast),模拟分析了两种不同的坐标系对模式大气中垂直速度计算的影响。试验结果表明,不同的坐标系对大气垂直速度大小计算存在着差异,特别是当分辨率提高时,不同垂直坐标系对大气垂直结构的刻画的差别更加明显。由于垂直速度与降雨过程密切相关,垂直速度的计算差异必然影响模式对降雨过程的描述。理想试验结果表明,在气压地形追随坐标中气压梯度力的计算对地表气压计算很敏感。     

采用隐式立方样条计算平流过程的数值模式及理想实验

本文介绍了一种用隐式立方样条求解平流方程的数值方法,并从理论上对其无条件稳定性进行了证明,在此基础上建立了一个在地形坐标系下的两维原始方程模式,模式在行星边界层参数化中引入了湍流动能方程,在模式顶部引入了吸收层.数值实验表明:模式有较好的计算稳定性,对较高的模式水平分辨率和复杂地形均有较强的适应能力;对复杂地形和下垫面非均匀热源条件下中尺度系统的模拟能获得合理的结果,并具有较高的精确度.     

重庆市区冬季晴天局地环流结构

设计了运用地形追随坐标系处理复杂下垫面上三维流场的方法，对重庆市区冬季晴天的局地环流结构进行了客观分析。结果指出，夜间四周山区有下坡冷空气向市中区汇集，午后逐渐转为谷风环流。这种局地环流结构对重庆雾的生消与污染物分布起着重要作用。     

青藏高原背风坡地形对西南涡过程影响的数值试验

在一个有三重水平结构的台风数值模式基础上，发展了一个能考虑青藏高原及其背风坡不同尺度地形的数值模式，用于９８１年７月１２日２０：００￣７月１４日２０：００西南涡个例的数值研究。模式中设计了全地形、１／３地形和无地形三种方案。对比试验结果表明：全地形对西南涡的移动和发展、形状和范围均能较成功地模拟，降低地形或无地形时，模拟则不成功。全地形时急流轴为偏北方向，而在１／３地形或无地形时，急流走向为偏东方     

非静力中尺度高分辨率模式模拟中的垂直坐标影响研究

近几年来,随着高性能计算机技术的高速发展,甚高分辨率的中尺度数值预报模式业务应用已成为可能,与之相关的一系列模式技术的新问题也随之提了出来,垂直坐标系的影响就是其中之一。文中借助于美国新一代数值预报模式WRF(WeatherReseachandForecast),比较了非静力中尺度模式高分辨率模拟应用的垂直坐标影响问题。研究表明,当选用几何高度(z)和气压(p)来构造地形追随坐标时,低层两坐标引起的误差基本一样,中高层高度地形追随坐标引起的误差小于气压地形追随坐标;而且分辨率越高差异愈大。高分辨率模拟结果也表明,这种差异趋势是存在的;此外,本文对天气过程的预报要素场进行了相关的分析。     

青岛奥帆赛高分辨率数值模式系统研制与应用

该文初步建立了青岛奥帆赛高分辨率数值模式系统（包括预报模式和释用模式）。预报模式基于Weather Research & Forecast（WRF）模式V3.0,模式设计为网格数60×50×38,水平分辨率500 m。在IBM小型机上用8个线程作15 h预报所需机时约为1 h 20 min,可满足实时业务预报需要。利用高分辨率边界层模式和城市小区尺度模式对该预报结果进行了动力释用（水平分辨率分别为100 m和10 m）。该模式系统于2008年夏季进行了实时运行试验,模式产品在北京奥运气象服务中心青岛分中心使用。结果表明:该模式系统有较强的稳定性和实用性,对城市热岛、海陆风、地形及建筑物影响等局地环流特征有较好的模拟效果。数值试验分析表明:城市化引起城市热岛效应,增大了海陆温差,使海风加强;城市建筑物拖曳作用使风速减小,从而使海风推进速度减缓;精细下垫面资料的引入对海风等局地环流高分辨率数值模拟至关重要。     

Evaluation of an alternative method for numerically modeling nonhydrostatic flows over irregular terrain

Modeling nonhydrostatic atmospheric flow requires the solution of the vertical equation of motion and a prognostic or diagnostic equation for pressure. If the nonhydrostatic components of the flow are relatively small, they can be approximated and incorporated into a purely hydrostatic model, which usually is conceptually simpler and computationally more efficient. A method to do this for a linear model of local thermally-induced circulations is further developed and adapted to a non-linear numerical model of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer. A hydrostatic model and the quasi-nonhydrostatic version were used to simulate neutral flow over simple terrain features. One set of observations taken over a simple change in roughness and another set taken over a change in both roughness and terrain were simulated by both models to assess the capabilities of the quasi-nonhydrostatic technique.It is found that (as expected) the pressure deviation from the hydrostatic state is negligible for the roughness change, but it is an important aspect of neutral flow over terrain. Thus, for flow encountering a simple roughness change, the hydrostatic approximation is good, even for small horizontal scales. However, the quasi-nonhydrostatic model qualitatively produces the features in the observations for flow over a terrain change that the hydrostatic model cannot produce.Journal Paper No. J-12737 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 2779.     

Numerical analysis of a thermotopographically-induced mesoscale circulation in a mountain basin using a non-hydrostatic model

Summary The boundary-layer wind field during weak synoptic conditions is largely controlled by the nature of the landscape. Mesoscale (sub-synoptic) circulations result from horizontal gradients of sensible heat flux due to variation in local topography, variation in surface-cover, and discontinuities such as land-sea contrasts. Such flows are usually referred to as thermally-driven circulations, and are diurnal in nature and often predictable. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic computer model to shed light on the physical mechanisms that drive a persistent easterly wind that develops in the afternoon in the Mackenzie Basin, New Zealand. The easterly – Canterbury Plains Breeze (CPB) – is observed early in the afternoon and is often intense, with mean wind speeds reaching up to 12 m s⁻¹. Although computer modelling in mountainous terrain is extremely challenging, the model is able to simulate this circulation satisfactorily. To further investigate the mechanisms that generate the Canterbury Plains Breeze, two additional idealized model experiments are performed. With each experiment, the effects of the synoptic scale wind and the ocean around the South Island, New Zealand were successively removed. The results show that contrary to previous suggestions, the Canterbury Plains Breeze is not an intrusion of the coastal sea breeze or the Canterbury north-easterly, but can be generated by heating of the basin alone. This conclusion highlights the importance of mountain basins and saddles in controlling near-surface wind regimes in complex terrain.     

A Prediction System for Local Wind Variations in Mountainous Terrain

A three-level model system for the prediction of local flows in mountainous terrain is described. The system is based upon an operational weather prediction model with a horizontal grid spacing of about 10 km. The large-scale flow is transformed to a more detailed terrain, first by a mesoscale model with grid spacing of about 1 km, and then by a local-scale model with a grid spacing of about 0.2 km. The weather prediction model is hydrostatic, while the two other models are non-hydrostatic. As a case study the model system has been applied to estimate wind and turbulence over Várnes airport, Norway, where data on turbulent flight conditions were provided near the runway. The actual case was chosen due to previous experiences, which indicate that south-easterly winds may cause severe turbulence in a region close to the airport. Local terrain induced turbulence seems to be the main reason for these effects. The predicted local flow in the actual region is characterized by narrow secondary vortices along the flow, and large turbulent intensity associated with these vortices. A similar pattern is indicated by the sparse observations, although there seems to be a difference in mean wind direction between data and predictions. Due to fairly coarse data for sea surface temperature, errors could be induced in the turbulence damping via the Richardson number. An adjustment for this data problem improved the predictions.     

豫西地形对一次强降水过程的影响分析

利用中尺度模式WRF 3.3.1模拟了2007年7月29日豫西山区强对流天气过程,并进行了地形高度敏感性试验。结果表明：模式能够很好地再现此次强对流降水过程,模拟降水范围与强降雨中心均与实况较一致。分析对比控制试验和地形敏感性试验结果可知,地形的改变能够在水平和垂直方向上影响环流形势,进而影响降水的落区和中心量级。地形升高和迎风坡梯度增大使近地面层水平风场辐合增强,中层上升运动明显增大,且低层的水汽通量增大,导致雨带横向范围和降水中心量级明显增大;而地形降低和迎风坡梯度减小使山脉对近地面层气流的阻挡作用明显减弱,低层水汽通量显著降低,中层辐合抬升运动明显减弱,迎风坡前强降水中心减弱甚至消失,而山脉下游降水则有所增强。分析地形高度与山前降水的定量关系可知,降水中心量级随着地形升高或降低相应地增大或减小,但二者并非完全的线性正相关。     

The Effect of Mesoscale Flows on Regional Atmospheric Transport in a Complex Terrain

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局地环流与大气边界层湍流相互作用的数值研究

本文建立了一个二维定常大气中尺度数值模式，并用该模式讨论了由下垫面粗糙分布非均匀（局地动力强迫）和温度分布非均匀（局地热力强迫）而产生的局地大气环流与大气边界层湍流的相互作用。结果指出：下垫面存在温度分布非均匀时运动方程中的湍流交换项与水平气压梯项一样可促使局地热力环境的形成，由粗糙度分布非均匀强迫产生的局地环流与由下垫面温度分布非均匀强迫产和的局地热力环流间的非线笥相互作用是通过湍流交换实现的。     

中尺度地形对强对流天气的影响的数值诊断

许多重大天气灾害发生在特定地形条件下,例如山区的喇叭口地形容易有暴雨发生。山脉的阻碍以及造成的空气被迫抬升、绕流、穿谷流,地形的不同加热和摩擦效应产生的中尺度环流对局地强对流天气有明显作用。 大别山区和皖南山系对江淮地区的暴雨和强对流天气的影响也早已为该地区预报员们所重视,通过雷达、天气图和云图资料分析认识到山区热力对流、长江穿谷流和大别山背风坡低压是江淮地区剧烈天气发生的重要因素。 为了比较深入地了解中尺度地形对强对流天气的影响,除了从实测资料进行细致分析外,有必要从     

Numerical simulation of cold easterly circulations over the Canadian Western Plains using a mesoscale boundary-layer model

Arctic outbreaks over the Canadian Western Plains during the late spring period frequently take the form of a cold east-northeasterly flow over a warmer, sloping surface. A mesoscale numerical model is developed in an attempt to simulate such circulations. Following Lavoie (1972) the atmospheric structure of the cold air mass is represented by three layers: a constant flux layer in contact with the earth's surface, a well-mixed planetary boundary layer capped by an inversion, and a deep stratum of overlying stable air. Averaging the set of governing primitive equations through the depth of the mixed layer yields predictive equations for the horizontal wind components, potential temperature, specific humidity, and the height of the inversion. Time-dependent calculations are limited to this layer by parameterizing the interactions between the mixed layer and both the underlying and overlying layers. Precipitation from limited convective clouds, and latent heat within the layer are included in terms of mesoscale variables.A 47.6-km by 47.6-km grid mesh of 1369 points covering the Canadian Prairie Provinces is used to represent the variables. The governing equations are solved numerically with terrain influences, surface roughness, temperature variations, and moisture fluxes allowed to perturb the mixed layer from its initial conditions until resultant mesoscale boundary-layer weather patterns evolve.The mean spring topographic precipitation pattern is successfully reproduced by the simulated late spring upslope flow with limited convective precipitation. Mesoscale planetary boundary-layer weather patterns appear to exert a dominant control over the location and intensity of perturbations in the spring precipitation pattern. The elimination of surface heating significantly reduces the area and intensity of precipitation. A case study based on observed initial conditions showed that the model could reproduce a persistent limited convective precipitation pattern maintained by upslope flow and that a low-level trough exerts a marked influence on the location and the intensity of the precipitation.     

分辨率对区域气候极端事件模拟的影响

利用NCAR MM5V3对1999年6月长江流域的极端异常降水事件进行了模拟,主要研究不同水平和垂直分辨率对极端区域气候事件模拟的影响。数值模拟试验表明:模式能够模拟出极端强降水的主要分布特征;水平分辨率的提高降低了模式模拟的强降水偏差,对逐日降水变化的模拟更加合理,而垂直分辨率的提高基本上也都减小了模拟的强降水过程的偏差,改善对强降水的模拟能力;模式水平、垂直分辨率的提高在一定程度上增强了对强降水过程的模拟能力。水平分辨率的提高能够改善模式对海平面气压的模拟,而垂直分辨率的提高可以改善模式模拟的地面气温和低层环流。分辨率对中层大气环流的影响不是很敏感。不同积云对流参数化方案模拟的对流降水比率随水平分辨率的变化是不同的,Grell方案对流降水比例随分辨率的提高而增加,而Kain-Fritsch方案的结果相反。