2008年青岛奥帆赛及残奥帆赛精细化气象服务综述

2008年第29届北京奥运会帆船赛和第13届北京残奥运会帆船比赛（以下简称奥帆赛及残奥帆赛）在青岛举行,赛场周达地形复杂,而且期间正值汛期,天气复杂多变。青岛市气象局建立了以天气雷达、风廓线雷达、浮标站、自动站等为依托的气象综合探测系统,实现了赛场及其周边高时空分辨率的立体化探测;引进了高性能计算机系统,建立了以MM5、WRF等多种模式为基础的精细化预报系统,提供赛场内4个浮标站的逐时风速、风向的定量预报以及赛场暴雨、雷雨大风、台风、大雾等灾害性天气的短期、短时临近预报;开发了资料综合显示平台、奥帆赛及残奥帆赛产品制作分发平台以及预警信号和天气预报制作平台,快速生成和分发各种预报产品;建成了一个具有综合、宽带、高速、数字化等持征的信息网络系统。组建了近百人的奥帆赛及残奥帆赛气象服务固队,创新服务理念,确定服务策略,通过英文气象信息发布会、张貼栏、服务网站、手机分区预警短信等多种渠道向赛事组织者、运动员、教练员提供了精细化的气象服务,成功地保障了奥帆赛及残奥帆赛的顺利举行。     

2008年青岛奥帆赛及残奥帆赛精细化气象服务综述

2008年第29届北京奥运会帆船赛和第13届北京残奥运会帆船比赛(以下简称奥帆赛及残奥帆赛)在青岛举行,赛场周边地形复杂,而且期间正值汛期,天气复杂多变。青岛市气象局建立了以天气雷达、风廓线雷达、浮标站、自动站等为依托的气象综合探测系统,实现了赛场及其周边高时空分辨率的立体化探测;引进了高性能计算机系统,建立了以MM5、WRF等多种模式为基础的精细化预报系统,提供赛场内4个浮标站的逐时风速、风向的定量预报以及赛场暴雨、雷雨大风、台风、大雾等灾害性天气的短期、短时临近预报;开发了资料综合显示平台、奥帆赛及残奥帆赛产品制作分发平台以及预警信号和天气预报制作平台,快速生成和分发各种预报产品;建成了一个具有综合、宽带、高速、数字化等特征的信息网络系统。组建了近百人的奥帆赛及残奥帆赛气象服务团队,创新服务理念,确定服务策略,通过英文气象信息发布会、张贴栏、服务网站、手机分区预警短信等多种渠道向赛事组织者、运动员、教练员提供了精细化的气象服务,成功地保障了奥帆赛及残奥帆赛的顺利举行。     

海面风精细化集成预报系统在青岛奥帆赛期间的应用

2008年第29届奥运会帆船赛(奥帆赛)在青岛市浮山湾至石老人湾附近的海域举行。8月份正是青岛的汛期,天气复杂多变,而且赛区周边地形复杂。奥帆赛需要提供50km2海域内4个浮标站逐时风向、风速的定量预报。为此,开发、引进了以MM5、WRF等多种模式建立了海面风精细化预报系统(图2),并在多种模式的基础上形成一套适应奥帆赛赛区复杂天气、复杂地形特征的集成预报产品。实践表明,集成预报产品为预报员提供了良好的技术支撑,在奥帆赛期间风速预报平均绝对误差仅为1.2m.s-1、风向预报平均绝对误差仅为36°。     

边界层流场和地形特征对青岛奥帆赛场午后海风影响的研究

奥帆赛是奥运会唯一以自然风为动力的竞赛项目,而北京奥运会期间的8月,青岛的风速是一年中最小的,因风速过小致使帆船竞赛地法进行的情况时有发生。鉴于青岛的弱风与海陆风的发展状况关系密切,文中分析8、9月青岛奥帆赛和残奥帆赛期间竞赛海域海陆风的发展条件,并用高分辨率数值模式对相关个例进行了模拟试验研究。结果发现,地面背景气流、边界层中上部径向气流和周围地形、海陆分布等边界层特征,都对竞赛海域海陆风的发展产生影响。其中晴天时,地面西风、弱的北风和东风、均压场环境以及边界层中上部弱的北风条件等,都是竞赛海域海风发展的有利条件;而地面南风(无论大小)、强的北风以及边界层中上部较强的南风和很强的北风等,则是海风发展的不利条件。此外,当地面为东北风时,位于竞赛海域上游的崂山对地面风速有阻挡减弱的作用,从而有利于海风的发展;地面为南风时,崂山和浮山等地形强迫气流在竞赛海域附近向左右分为两支,胶州湾和崂山湾侧向海风(东南风)急流发展又加大了这种分流作用,导致竞赛海域常减小为弱风,使比赛无法进行。以上结论在2008年奥帆赛和残奥帆赛气象保障预报服务中得到运用。     

青岛奥帆赛场浮标站弱风成因

针对第29届北京奥运会青岛奥帆赛竞赛海域浮标站风力与背景气压场的关系进行了分析。结果显示:因地形等影响,奥帆赛海域的背景气流为东、西向或为均压场时不易出现弱风;而由于海洋冷平流、地形抬升水汽辐合,以及低空与补偿回流反向的背景气流抑制海风环流发展等原因,弱南向背景气流最易出现弱风;背景气流为北向时,因有利于陆地气温升高和海风环流的发展,情况变得极为复杂,配合以不同的天空状况,较强和较弱的背景气流条件都可能产生弱风。奥帆赛海域的风场不仅受当地背景气流和海陆风的影响,有时还受周围邻近地区(例如胶州湾等)强海风发展的连带影响。不同背景气流下的弱风,其预报难度也不同。南向背景气流弱风主要取决于气压梯度大小,北向背景气流弱风主要取决于天空云量多寡。     

局地资料同化在2008青岛奥帆赛风场预报中的应用

基于PSU/NCAR中尺度大气数值模式MM5,分别采用Cressman逐步订正和牛顿张弛逼近的同化方法将青岛地区自动气象站、浮标站、边界层风塔、风廓线雷达、新一代Doppler气象雷达VAD风资料同化进模式,建立了一个青岛及周边地区资料同化预报系统,用于2008年青岛奥帆赛赛场风场精细化预报。统计分析表明,2008年8月9—21日比赛期间模式预报浮标A、B、C和D的风速平均绝对误差为1.6m.s-1,风向平均绝对误差为38°。分析指出,此预报模式系统能够为奥帆赛场提供精细化的风场预报产品,详细刻画青岛近海海面风场分布特征,为预报员的预报提供一种预报依据。     

精细化气象预报产品在奥帆赛中的应用

开展精细化天气预报服务是社会经济发展的需要,也是气象预报发展的必然趋势。为满足对中小尺度天气短时预报定时、定点、定量的要求,精细化气象预报产品必须具有快捷性服务、预报要素更有针对性、预报结果的空间分辨率更高的特点。从奥帆赛气象服务保障工作入手,通过分析奥帆赛气象服务的具体事例,浅述精细化产品在气象服务中的实际应用情况和发挥的重要作用。     

奥帆赛开闭幕式人工消减雨技术保障探讨

介绍了2008年青岛奥帆赛开闭幕式人工消减雨工作的技术保障方案,通过组织实施和效果分析表明:该方案实际可行,为奥帆赛的成功举办提供了有力的技术保障,可对今后开展此类工作提供参考,以备借鉴。     

2008青岛奥帆赛及残奥帆赛气象服务策略与技巧

本文以2008青岛奥帆赛和残奥帆赛赛事服务为例,详尽分析了本次气象服务采取的一系列策略和技巧。即赛前充分了解需求,在比赛中及时把握时间节点,从而在复杂的天气条件下缩短预报时效,提高预报准确率,在服务过程中时刻贯穿“以变为魂”的理念,根据赛事的进展,适时调整服务策略,采取先“激进”后“保守”的策略,使得比赛进程安排紧凑。     

青岛奥帆赛期间海风锋触发的对流性降水特征

根据自动气象站、多普勒雷达、卫星云图、风廓线、NCEP资料和MODIS卫星遥感反演结果等多种资料,对2008年青岛奥帆赛期间(8月12—14日),在不同环流形势下海风锋触发的对流性降水特征进行分析。结果表明:海风锋与中低空切变线叠加易使局地辐合加强,出现对流天气;当同时有地面静止锋南压时,海风锋则缓慢向内陆推进,在交汇地区产生对流天气;当有大尺度天气系统过境时,前期海风锋触发对流,北推发展与系统性天气相结合,后期若高空槽发展较强则是一次典型的系统过境过程,易出现强对流天气。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on