攀西地区南部一次MCC引发暴雨过程的分析

利用地面气象观测资料、雷达卫星资料和FNL再分析资料,对2018年6月22日攀西地区南部的一次暴雨天气过程进行分析。结果表明:本次暴雨天气过程由MCC导致,低层的辐合区和高层的南亚高压脊线是产生暴雨的主要影响天气系统;MCC发生于弱环境风场条件下的高能高温高湿环境中,但对垂直风切变的要求较低;MCC生成发展区域中低层温度和露点较周边区域高,MCC区域大气表现出明显的低层辐合,高层辐散,辐合(散)成熟阶段较发展阶段强。      

浙江中部一次大雾过程分析与预报

利用NCEP再分析格点资料、常规观测资料、数值预报产品以及卫星云图对2009年4月6日早晨浙江中部一次大范围大雾天气过程进行诊断分析。结果表明：高空槽后暖脊的大气环流背景有利于地面长波辐射冷却和中层增温,易形成逆温,为大雾生成提供了有利条件,而边界层逆温层或等温层的形成与维持对雾的发展持续具有重要作用;凝结核、低层湍流混合是山区能见度较城镇大的主要原因;交叉温度可用来预示整个潜在雾层的湿度状态,温度与交叉温度差值可作为了解大雾生成、发展、消散过程的一项指标;模式产品能提供雾形成的环境条件;红外云图、可见光云图有助于预测雾的形成、发展、消散过程。     

一次冷锋后飑线的大振幅重力波特性分析

本文用较密集的观测资料分析江淮地区一次冷锋后的飑线过程。分析表明飑线的生成和发展与中尺度冷涌活动有关，它具有大振幅重力波的特征。重力波在传播过程中于大别山东侧形成边缘锋，边缘锋的传播更类似于沿岸Kelvin波，大振幅重力波在边界层特征更明显。这类被地形拦截的大振幅重力波是江淮地区冷锋后飑线的一种可能激发机制。     

2022年10月大气环流和天气分析北大核心CSCD

2022年10月大气环流的主要特征是北半球极涡呈单极型分布且较常年同期强度偏强,欧亚地区中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”型,西太平洋副热带高压较常年位置偏西、偏北,强度偏强。10月,全国平均气温为10.8℃,较常年同期(10.6℃)偏高0.2℃;全国平均降水量为34.4 mm,比常年同期(35.6 mm)偏少3.4%。月内我国有2次暴雨天气过程,一次受高空槽、低空急流和副热带高压影响,另一次受台风尼格和高空槽影响。10月共有5个热带气旋在南海和西北太平洋活动,生成个数较常年偏多1.2个,无登陆台风(较常年偏少),其中台风桑卡、纳沙和尼格影响南海、海南岛和华南地区。长江以北气象干旱缓和,长江以南气象干旱持续。     

青海一次春季透雨降水过程的云物理结构分析

2001年5月23日青海省的一次透雨过程基本解决了春旱问题.此次降水预报准确,开展了飞机人工增雨作业,同时利用一架科研探测飞机对降水云层进行较系统的云微物理特征探测.探测结果表明"5·23"透雨过程中,降水云系在降水形成发展阶段有分层现象,上层云云水含量较下层大,云粒子浓度大,水汽主要由较高层的系统输送,由于青藏高原特有的下垫面条件,云系的发展变化较快.云粒子谱分析表明,降水云系生成阶段,云粒子谱不连续,呈间断分布或呈浓度有多峰的特征,降水云系成熟后云粒子谱明显增宽,且浓度增加一个以上数量级.云系的不同发展阶段降水云系的粒子二维特征也有不同.     

一次西南热低压形成过程的数值试验和分析

该文以2003年3月29-4月1日的一次典型热低压过程为例,通过数值模拟,得到了与实况基本一致的结果。进一步利用数值模拟场,对热低压的发生发展进行了分析。结果显示,西南热低压生成时水平流场表现为明显的气旋性辐合流场,低压环流中心轴线随高度的变化基本上是垂直的;低压生成后,基本是在原地发展并且是从地面向低空逐渐发展起来的;低压在生成发展过程中都是强的正相对涡度,相对湿度较低,是暖性的。文中还进行了不同的数值试验,通过敏感性试验探讨了西南热低压的形成原因。     

陕北北部一次雹暴的特征及成因

利用榆林多普勒雷达资料以及MICAPS资料、NCEP资料,对陕北北部（靖边县）的一次雹暴过程做了综合分析。表明：雹灾是由两个B中尺度强对流单体发展造成的;对流层高层反气旋辐散为雹云的发展提供了动力条件;本站气压持续降低、测站〉4m／s东南风的生成、配合对流层低层水汽辐合的增强,为强对流的发展创造了有利条件;地面能量比低值舌的活动是强对流生成和发展的触发机制之一。垂直累积液态水含量（VIL）大于35kg／m2强中心的生成,在强冰雹的预报中应予以重视。     

鲁西北中尺度对流复合体环境场特征

通过对鲁西北一次典型的中尺度对流复合体（ＭＣＣ）环境物理量场特征分析,从一个侧面揭示了鲁西北ＭＣＣ生成、发展的环境条件。结果表明：ＭＣＣ发生在副高西北侧深厚的高能级、准饱和、潜在不稳定的气层中,５００ｈＰａ东移的中支短波槽是ＭＣＣ的触发系统;高、低空急流和低层辐合流场对ＭＣＣ的生成和发展具有重要的作用。     

用Zwack-Okossi方程对一次爆发性气旋的诊断分析

利用ECMWF资料作初始场,MM4模式输出的结果和Zwack-Okossi方程作诊断工具,对1981年12月20～21日生成在西北太平洋的一次爆发性气旋进行了数值试验和诊断分析。得到气旋的爆发性发展主要是由正涡度平流和非地转场激发,其中涡度平流对气旋发展贡献最大,温度平流的影响则较小,两者主要是在对流层高层起作用,而非地转场则在对流层低层起主要作用。由水汽造成的非绝热加热对本次爆发性气旋的生成影响不大,积云对流潜热的反馈作用更小。另外次天气尺度系统对爆发性气旋形成贡献较小。     

一次低涡切变影响云南大雨过程分析

利用昆明 3830 /CC多普勒天气雷达观测资料 ,结合MICAPS客观分析资料 ,对 2 0 0 3年 9月 2日的一次大雨天气过程进行分析。结果表明 :在有利的低涡切变和地面冷锋环流背景和有利的热力、动力条件下 ,不断触发中尺度切变线和中尺度涡旋的生成和发展。中尺度切变线和中尺度涡旋是强对流生成和发展的动力 ,先后生成“人”字型回波、飑线和两个中尺度絮状回波团直接导致大雨天气过程 ,表现出了许多中尺度特征 ,零速度线的位置、变化和正、负速度相对位置的演变与中尺度天气系统的生成和发展密切相关。     

Towards practitioner-initiated interactive knowledge development for sustainable development: A cross-case analysis of three coastal projects

Although the central challenges of sustainable development are well-known, sustainability science has been slow in contributing to effective and feasible solutions for sustainable development. Turning knowledge into action for sustainable development therefore remains a major challenge for sustainability science. Interactive knowledge development is considered a prerequisite for sustainability-oriented action. Most studies approach interactive knowledge development from a researcher's perspective. This paper focuses on practitioners that initiate interactive knowledge development for sustainability-oriented actions. A cross-case analysis is presented for interactive knowledge development in coastal projects. Three cases are analysed through the framework of project arrangements and knowledge arrangements. The projects are located in the Wadden Sea, San Francisco Bay and the Ems estuary and address issues of flood control, nature restoration and liveability. The cross-case analysis revealed 11 causal mechanisms that help explain how project decision-making impacts on interactive knowledge development, how a process of interactive knowledge development functions and what its outcomes are. The mechanisms clarify the key underlying processes of interactive knowledge development in coastal projects. The mechanisms show that interactive knowledge development may result in sustainability-oriented solutions that are feasible for implementation. As such, this paper contributes to a practice-oriented understanding of turning knowledge into action for sustainable coastal development.     

作物发育模式重构及基于甘蔗的模拟检验

发育进程是作物的生理年龄,发育模式是作物生长模型的时间指针。但目前的发育模式只关注某时段（日）气象条件对作物发育的影响,其准确率也难以满足作物生长模拟的需求。根据作物发育速率不仅与气象条件有关、还与其所处发育期有关的理论假设,重构发育进程模式,并利用1980—2019年我国甘蔗发育实测数据进行模式适应性分析,比较传统模式与重构模式的模拟能力。结果表明:重构模式中,发育单位日序模式和温度日序模式对甘蔗发育进程的适应性均较好,尤其在后期温度不断降低的发育进程以及低温年型的模拟中,其适应能力明显优于传统模式。重构及传统模式模拟能力从强到弱依次为发育单位日序模式、温度日序模式、响应适应模式、发育单位模式、发育单位温度修正模式、热量单位模式,均方根误差计算的模拟能力值依次为4.3,3.9,3.7,3.3,3.0,2.8。     

一次引发强沙尘天气的快速发展蒙古气旋的诊断分析

利用NCEP分析资料和常规气象观测资料对造成2006年3月9-10日华北大范围强沙尘天气,产生大风的蒙古气旋快速发展过程进行了分析。结果表明：气旋发展前期,高层反气旋性流场对波能量发展有正的贡献,有利于气旋的爆发性发展。在气旋发展过程中,温度平流和涡度平流均为气旋发展的主要因子,但涡度平流在气旋发展初期相对温度平流较弱。斜压作用出现在低层,并随着气旋后部的锋消作用以及前部的锋生而显著增强,这对于有效位能的释放、动能的产生以及气旋的发展有重要作用,同时,斜压强迫能够诱发出强烈的非地转风。此外,位涡分析表明,气旋的发展与冷空气活动的关系比较密切,并且存在明显的高低空系统之间的相互作用,而水汽和潜热释放产生的作用不明显。同时揭示出该气旋发生发展机制不但与挪威学派的温带气旋模型有较大差别,而且与Petterssen总结的A、B类气旋、引起我国夏半年降水的江淮气旋和西南涡等低压系统亦不相同。     

A two-track CDM: improved incentives for sustainable development and offset production

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has been criticized in the literature for encouraging a focus on offset production (OP) at the expense of achieving or encouraging sustainable development (SD). It is argued that one explanation for this is that there is no commonly agreed definition of SD and, moreover, the priority of CDM project developers is often to produce cost-effective OP. Many of the proposals to address these drawbacks are not politically feasible. It is argued that the CDM should be split into a two-track mechanism, with one track for offset production and the other for offset production with an emphasis on sustainable development benefits. This would enable the political deadlock to be broken, allow the inclusion of SD benefits in the price mechanism itself, and allow both SD and OP objectives to be simultaneously achieved.

Policy relevance

The CDM has been criticized for failing to achieve its sustainable development objective, for verification problems regarding the mitigation effects of projects’ emissions, for being complex and bureaucratic, and for the very limited participation by the least developed countries. Given the adoption of a second period of the Kyoto Protocol and the discussion of new market mechanisms in the context of negotiating a new global climate agreement to be adopted in 2015, it is time to explore the ways in which the CDM might be reformed. A two-track version of the CDM is proposed, with one track focused on credit (offset) production and the other track focused on sustainable development. This system could improve the incentive for achieving sustainable development, reduce the uncertainty regarding whether real emissions reductions have been achieved, and be attractive to both developing and industrialized countries.     

Interrelation between the Dynamic Structure and Water Content of Convective Clouds Based on Aircraft Observations

The spectral structure of turbulence (spectra and cospectra) and water content characteristics for convective clouds in the tropical region was analyzed using aircraft observations in the meteorological testbed over Cuba; the results are presented. The cospectra for vertical turbulent heat fluxes allow classifying convective clouds based on their development stage and revealing the stages of growth, stabilization, and dissipation of clouds. It is shown that the value of cloud air overheating as compared to the ambient space is a parameter defining the cloud development stage. The interrelation is revealed between the integral characteristics of turbulence and water content (the mean values and distribution functions of parameters) for different stages of development of convective clouds. The recommendations are formulated on using the data on the dynamic structure of clouds for weather modification activities. A method is proposed for the instrumental estimation of cloud suitability for seeding that is aimed at precipitation augmentation.     

Climate change and sustainable development: expanding the options

Climate change and sustainable development have been addressed in largely separate circles in both research and policy. Nevertheless, there are strong linkages between the two in both realms. This paper focuses on the scientific linkages and discusses the opportunities they provide for integrated policy development, and the necessity to consider the risk of trade-offs. It is suggested that integration may not only provide new opportunities, but may even be a prerequisite for successfully addressing both issues. Since the feasibility of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations is dependent on general socio-economic development paths, climate policy responses should be fully placed in the larger context of technological and socio-economic policy development rather than be viewed as an add-on to those broader policies. The arguments are supported by a range of examples for various economic sectors in the areas of both mitigation and adaptation, largely drawn from IPCC’s Third Assessment Report.     

全国棉花发育期业务预报方法研究

棉花发育期是反映棉花个体与群体生育状况的重要标志, 正确预报棉花发育期对于开展棉花气象灾害预警防御和生产管理措施建议至关重要。为此, 针对全国农业气象业务服务中尚未开展棉花发育期预报的状况, 通过对全国农业气象观测网50个站棉花发育期的变异性和影响棉花生长发育速率因子的分析, 根据实际业务资料现状和业务运行特点, 结合天气预报, 提出了以棉花发育阶段有效积温和间隔日数为指标建立棉花发育期业务预报模式的思路, 实现了可实时动态预报棉花发育期的业务运行方法。模式历史拟合、外推和试预报与实际对比的结果表明:全国50个站棉花第五真叶和开花发育期误差在5 d以内出现的频次达80%以上, 出苗、第三真叶、现蕾等发育期在70%以上, 平均绝对误差小于4 d; 裂铃期误差在6 d以内出现的频次接近70%, 平均绝对误差小于6 d, 效果较好。对棉花停止生长发育期综合考虑积温和初霜日期两个因素, 其历史拟合、外推和试预报误差在10 d以内出现的频次接近70%, 平均绝对误差接近10 d, 基本可以满足全国农业气象业务以旬为服务时效的要求。     

STUDY ON SENSITIVITY OF WIND FIELD VARIATION TO STRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS

A numerical experiment was carried out on individual cases of severe convections in the Jianghuai area under cold vortex on April 28, 2015 in order to study the impact of wind field variations at the middle and low troposphere on the development and structure of storms. The results show that the structure and development of convective storm is highly sensitive to the changes of wind fields, and the adjustment of wind field at the middle or low troposphere will lead to significant changes in the development and intensity of storms. When the wind field at the middle or low troposphere is weakened, the convective development suffers different degrees of attenuation compared with the control experiment, and the ways of attenuation of the two levels are different. In the attenuation test of wind field at the middle level, convection is obviously weak at all stages of its development, while for the wind field at the low level, the convective development is weak only in the initial development stage of storm. On the contrary, the enhancement of the wind field at the middle or low troposphere is conducive to the development of convection, especially the enhancement of the wind field at the middle troposphere. In comparison, the convection develops rapidly in this test, as the most intensive one. The wind field variations have a significant impact on the structure and organization of the storm. The enhancement of the wind field at the middle troposphere makes for the intension of the middle-level swirl of convective storm, the reduction of the storm scale, and the organized evolution of convection. The development of the wind field at the low level troposphere is conducive to the development of the low-level secondary circulation of the storm and the cyclonic vorticity at the middle and low levels at the inflowing side.     

Major emerging powers in sustainable development diplomacy: Assessing their leadership potential

It is often argued that the growth of major emerging powers, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil, will have a transformative effect on the world economy and politics, but the implications of their rise on sustainable development diplomacy have remained understudied. Do these new powers have the potential to exercise leadership and address the stalled performance on the sustainable development agenda? Drawing on theories of leadership in multiparty negotiations and the empirical study of two major emerging powers’ coalitions, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, China), this article assesses their leadership potential in sustainable development diplomacy. It finds that emerging powers are already engaging in policy coordination in the sustainable development realm, have begun to use their influence to create incentives for other actors in the system and have been conducting skillful diplomacy to develop their coalitions and forge consensus in global policy-making. However, exerting actual global leadership would require building a stronger policy agenda. One area with particular potential for emerging powers to exert leadership is the clean energy arena of sustainable development diplomacy.     

中国生物质能源植物种植现状及生物多样性保护

随着国家对可再生能源的重视和扶持,我国以麻疯树等为主的能源植物种植业呈现快速的产业化发展势头.这种生物质能源植物的产业化种植可能会对生物多样性带来影响,如对生态系统与栖息地的影响等,但这些影响还存在着诸多的不确定性和争议.从防患于未然的角度,对我国的生物质能源植物种植业发展提出了相应的建议:在生物多样性敏感地区的种植规划和项目应进行生物多样性影响评价,应尽可能使用当地物种并进行合理的配置,尽可能减少大规模单一物种的种植模式,注意原有生境的完整性和生态廊道的维持;同时,需要政府部门加大科学研究支持力度并做好监测工作,以实现我国生物质能源植物种植业和生物多样性保护的双赢.