Urban scale modelling: The Sydney hailstorm of 14 April 1999

Summary The aim of this study is to point to the very large improvements that are taking place in a range of modelling applications in the urban areas. The particular phenomenon chosen in this study is a supercell, but it could well have been any other aspect of urban modelling. The Sydney hailstorm of 14 April 1999 was a long-lived, high precipitation supercell that produced a massive damage bill of over 2 billion Australian dollars from its hail swath. The Sydney hailstorm was poorly forecast for a number of reasons including: the severe weather season had officially ended so there were no specialist staff on duty when the hailstorm struck Sydney; the storm proved very difficult to predict and it was expected to continue heading out to sea; and the forecast guidance from all available operational numerical models was inadequate at the resolution required for a supercell simulation. Here, our interest is on the last of the problems, namely, the quality of the operational numerical model guidance, especially given the impact it had on a densely populated urban region.In this study, we compare the numerical guidance available at the time with current modeling capability which, although in research mode at present, will soon be available in real-time mode. The operational models were hydrostatic models run at horizontal resolutions of 25km at best, compared with 1km horizontal resolution for the non-hydrostatic research model. The research model also had a high-order differencing scheme and a sophisticated six phase cloud physics scheme compared with the much simpler parameterized convection in the operational models. The operational model produced very little convective precipitation and it was displaced well to the north of Sydney. The research model generated a supercell with a track and a hail size distribution that was encouragingly close to the observed.     

The active tropical cyclone season of 2005–2006 over Northwest Australia: Operational model performance and high resolution case studies

Summary There are three main aims of this study. First, the main features of the active 2005–2006 Australian region tropical cyclone (TC) season are summarized, with particular emphasis on the northwest Australian region. Second, an assessment is made of the skill of the available operational global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for three of the most significant TCs (TCs Clare, Glenda and Hubert), each of which made landfall on the northwest coast of Australia. Third, high-resolution numerical modelling simulations of these same three TCs are described in detail. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) model used here was developed at the University of Oklahoma, and in this study it utilises initial and boundary conditions obtained from archived analyses and forecasts provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, as well as a 4D-Var data assimilation scheme to ingest all available satellite data. The high-resolution numerical model is multiply two-way nested, with the innermost domain having a resolution of 5 km. It was found that unlike the operational models, which were restricted by relatively low resolution and less data, the high resolution model was able to capture most of the major features of all three TC lifecycles including development from initial tropical depressions, intensification, and their tracks, landfall, and associated rainfall and wind fields.     

Review of numerical methods for nonhydrostatic weather prediction models

Summary ?Currently available computer power allows to run operational numerical weather prediction models at resolutions higher than 10 km. The aim of such high resolution modeling is the prediction of local weather, including orographically induced winds and local precipitation patterns. In this range the hydrostatic approximation is no longer valid and nonhydrostatic models have to be used instead. For several decades these models have been developed for research purposes only, but operational application is now reality. In this paper, the numerical methods used in current nonhydrostatic forecast models will be reviewed and some promising techniques in this field will be discussed. Special attention is given to aspects such as the choice of the vertical coordinate, the efficiency of algebraic solvers for semi-implicit time discretizations, and accurate and non-oscillatory advection schemes. Received July 6, 2001; revision October 12, 2001     

用探空资料检验中尺度数值模式对强对流天气的诊断分析能力

提高对流天气临近预报准确率的关键问题之一是了解大气的垂直稳定度和垂直风切变。中尺度数值模式产品提供了高时空分辨率的大气稳定度和垂直风切变信息，需要首先检验其精度才能进一步考虑其在对流天气预报中的应用。利用北京加密探空资料检验北京市气象局3km分辨率的MM5模式结果，对强对流天气的背景参数包括温湿风垂直廓线、对流有效位能CAPE和垂直风切变进行模式分析和预报与探空对比检验。结果表明：模式模拟的各种大气廓线中，风廓线和温度廓线都具有一定的参考价值，与实况有较好的一致性，但在廓线出现转折的地方，如：逆温层和风向转折时，模式预报较差。露点（湿度）廓线的预报误差较大，不能反映出真实水汽场的分布。因此，模式预报的深层（地面至500hPa）垂直风切变与探空具有较好的一致性，而模式给出的对流有效位能CAPE由于露点预报结果不理想，其值与实际偏差较大。因此模式输出的对流有效位能CAPE必须经过适当订正才能用于诊断强对流天气发生的可能性。     

Further experiments on cyclone track prediction with a quasi-Lagrangian limited area model

Summary Results of an earlier study of cyclone track prediction using a quasi-Lagrangian model (QLM) to generate track forecasts of up to 36 hours were reported by Prasad and Rama Rao (2003). Further experiments to produce track forecasts of up to 72 hours with an updated version of the same model have been carried out in the present study. In this case, the ability of the model to predict recent historical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea has been assessed. Analysis of some of the structural features of analyzed and predicted fields has been carried out. Such fields include wind distribution and vertical motion around the cyclone centre. In addition, the merging of an idealized vortex with the large scale initial fields provided by a global model, has been carried out for a particular case study of a May 1997 storm, which hit the Bangladesh coast. This current study has demonstrated that the model generates a realistic structure of a tropical cyclone with an idealized vortex. Performance evaluation has been carried out by computing the direct position errors (DPE). The results of which show that the mean error for a 24 h forecast is about 122 km, which increases to about 256 km for a 48 h forecast and 286 km for a 72 h forecast. These figures are comparable to similar errors in respect of tropical cyclone forecasts produced by an advanced NWP centre, viz., the UKMO global model during the corresponding period, 1997–2000 (obtained from UKMO web site). The average forecast errors of the UKMO model are 160 km for 24 h, 265 km for 48 h, 415 km for 72 h forecast ranges.     

基于FSS的高分辨率模式华北对流预报能力评估

目前高分辨率数值预报模式已具有一定的对流系统结构和演变特征预报能力,但对其预报能力的客观评估仍存在较多不足。选取2017年7—9月华北地区在不同天气系统背景下、具有不同组织模态的7次对流天气个例,使用模糊检验方法中的分数技巧评分（fraction skill score,简称FSS）指标评估不同高分辨率模式（包括快速更新同化GRAPES_Meso,GRAPES_3 km及华东区域中尺度模式）对中小尺度对流过程的预报能力。结果表明:分数技巧评分能够实现当模式预报存在位移和强度偏差时仍然给出有价值的评分结果,其优势还在于可以给出表征模式空间位移偏差尺度的预报技巧尺度信息;所用3个模式的雷达回波强度预报均偏弱,当回波强度小于44 dBZ时,华东区域中尺度模式预报最接近实况,而对于44 dBZ以上的较强回波,GRAPES_3 km模式预报偏差最小;采用百分位阈值（通过升序排列求出预报和实况数列的相同百分位数作为其相应的阈值）进行检验发现,对于预报难度更大的高阈值、小尺度的对流事件,GRAPES_3 km模式预报能力更强。     

WRF模式与Topmodel模型在洪水预报中的耦合预报试验研究

基于空间分辨率90 m×90 m的湖北荆门漳河水库数字高程模型（DEM）地形数据,并从2012-2015年选取了20场洪水过程（其中16场用于模拟,4场用于检验）,将华中区域数值天气预报业务模式WRF提供的三重嵌套空间分辨率3 km×3 km、9 km×9 km和27 km×27 km预报降雨与集总式新安江模型以及半分布式水文模型Topmodel耦合进行洪水预报试验。通过对比试验得到以下结论：当流域降雨的时、空分布比较均匀时,集总式新安江模型可以较准确地预报出洪峰流量和峰现时间,而当降雨时、空分布差异较大时,预报误差也会随之增大。基于DEM数据建立的Topmodel模型可以反映不同降雨时、空分布下洪水预报结果的差异,试验结果表明,3 km×3 km和9 km×9 km洪水预报的输出结果比较接近,且在确定性系数和洪峰相对误差上要优于27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果,而在峰现时差的预报上,则是27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果与实测较吻合。通过研究还发现,虽然当流域降雨的时、空分布存在一定差异时,3种空间分辨率的WRF预报降雨均无法预报出与实测一致的降雨分布,但是在某些情况下,当降雨的时间分布误差和空间分布误差相抵消时,仍然可以得到较为准确的洪水预报结果。因此,高时、空分辨率的模式预报降雨并不一定就能对洪水预报结果产生正贡献,需要通过反复尝试寻找水文模型和数值模式耦合的最佳时、空分辨率。     

Impact of cloud microphysical processes on hurricane intensity, part 1: Control run

Summary The first part of the paper comprises of a control experiment and its forecasts validations with the observed. The PSU-NCAR mesoscale model MM5 was utilized at a horizontal resolution of 4 km using the data sets for hurricane Charley of 2004. The model configures some of the best available versions for physics and microphysical parameterizations schemes to produce forecasts which are close to the observed trend of hurricane Charley. The basic validations of the control run were carried out in terms of track, intensity (sea-level pressure and surface wind speed), storm propagation speed, precipitation and radar reflectivity with that of observed. The validations were necessary because this control experiment will be considered as a benchmark forecast for comparison with other microphysics sensitive experiments forecasts in the second part of this paper. In general, the control run forecasts closely comply with that of observed track and intensity of the hurricane Charley. We also note that control run manage to reproduce much of the important structural characteristics features of the hurricane as observed.     

The prediction of two cases of severe convection: implications for forecast guidance

Summary Severe convection in the Sydney basin regularly produces destructive winds, heavy rain or flash flooding, and damage from large hail. Such convective activity is a major forecasting challenge for the Sydney basin, especially during the October to April warm season. There presently is a need to provide timely, accurate and reliable numerical guidance to supplement the current probabilistic convective outlooks, issued by the operational forecasters. Initial work has been carried out that examines two cases of severe convection in the Sydney basin. The performance of a very high resolution (2 km) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is assessed in terms of how well it performed in providing guidance on heavy rainfall and hail, as well as other key mesoscale phenomena such as low level convergence lines. The model results discriminated well between severe convection that actually did occur in the first case (1 December, 2000) and the failure of severe convection to develop in the second case (8 December, 2000). The operational forecasters predicted severe convection to occur in both cases. It is now planned to take the next step of augmenting the quasi-subjective approach of the operational forecasters with the NWP guidance to provide an enhanced capacity to forecast severe convection in the Sydney basin. Received October 20, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001     

CMA-MESO关键技术集成及应用

基于GRAPES-MESO 10 km系统,提高模式动力框架计算精度和稳定性,选择调试适合高分辨率模式的物理过程参数化方案组合,建立面向数值天气预报的全国雷达质量控制拼图系统,通过云分析系统融合全国三维组网反射率因子拼图,建立面向中小尺度系统的对流可分辨同化系统和陆面资料同化系统,实现雷达径向风、风廓线雷达、FY-4A成像仪辐射率、卫星云导风、卫星GNSSRO、地面降水观测以及近地面资料等非常规局地稠密资料的同化应用,发展快速循环技术,建立全国3 km间隔3 h的快速循环同化预报系统——CMA-MESO（GRAPES-MESO 3 km）并实现业务化运行。2020年6—9月汛期业务检验结果表明:CMA-MESO预报的近地面要素（降水、2 m温度、10 m风场）检验评分全面超越GRAPES-MESO 10 km结果;CMA-MESO的24 h累积降水TS评分略低于欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的结果,但逐3 h累积降水预报TS评分尤其是对于较大降水阈值评分明显优于ECMWF结果;同时,对于能够表征模式对降水时空精细化特征预报能力的降水频次和降水强度等检验,CMA-MESO对我国汛期的预报准确率超过了ECMWF细网格模式结果。     

Numerical simulation of a cut-off low over southern Australia

Summary Cut-off low pressure systems over southern Australia are synoptic scale low pressure systems which have a closed circulation at the surface and a deep trough at the 500 hPa level. They usually develop from a deep trough in the westerlies, and often are companied by a Southern Ocean cold front. It is one of the most significant types of weather systems over southern Australia. Moderate or heavy rainfall is often associated with cut-off lows. Few studies so far have been conducted on them. In terms of prediction, the most interesting aspects are the position and intensity of the cut-off low pressure systems, the rainfall amount and distribution and sharp winds, when they are present. In this paper, a numerical model developed at the University of New South Wales, HIRES (HIgh RESolution model), is employed to simulate the cut-off low of August 31 to September 2, 1997. The modeling results are encouraging, showing that HIRES can forecast very well the location and intensity of the cut-off low system and its associated precipitation. The impact of an improved, explicit physics scheme on the simulation is also examined. The explicit scheme further improves the rainfall prediction. Received August 7, 1999 Revised October 23, 1999     

Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes and Surface Pressure Drags due to the Pyrénées: Variation with Numerical Model Horizontal Resolution

Summary. ?A hydrostatic numerical model is used to simulate the lee wave event IOP3 (0000 GMT to 1200 GMT 15^th October 1990) from the PYREX mountain experiment. Results from integrations at different horizontal resolutions are used to investigate the effect on surface pressure drag and the vertical flux of horizontal momentum due to orographically forced gravity waves. In particular, results showing the dependence on resolution of the partitioning between resolved and parametrized wave drag and fluxes are presented. With the model horizontal gridlength changing from 50 km to 10 km the majority of wave momentum flux changes from being parametrized to becoming resolved. More significantly, there is a change in the profile of flux with height. At 50 km resolution the largest inferred mean flow decelerations are at lower stratospheric level due to the parametrization scheme. At 10 km resolution this is shifted, with less deceleration high up and more wave deceleration lower down in the troposphere. Numerical weather prediction models are now beginning to take account of such low level drag with beneficial results. Received March 2, 1999/Revised July 15, 1999     

Sensitivity experiments for polar low forecasting with the CMC mesoscale finite‐element model

Abstract

High‐resolution versions of the Canadian operational regional finite‐element model (RFE) have been developed to assess their potential in simulating mesoscale, difficult‐to‐forecast and potentially dangerous weather systems commonly referred to as polar lows. The operational (1989) 100‐km version and a 50‐km version of the model have been run for two different polar low cases: one over Hudson Bay and one over Davis Strait. More integrations have also been performed on the Hudson Bay event both at 50 and 25 km to assess the model sensitivity to ice cover. As expected, the reduction in spatial truncation errors provided by the increase in resolution results in a better simulation of the systems. Moreover, when run at higher resolutions the model shows a significant sensitivity to ice cover. The results of the ice‐cover experiments also put into perspective the interaction between the heat and moisture fluxes at the surface, the low‐level wind structure, and the relation of these to the development of the polar low. This study suggests that the improved forecast accuracy obtained from increased resolution is limited by the correctness of the analysis of the ice cover, which acts as a stationary forcing for the entire forecast period.     

Adaptive observations for hurricane prediction

Summary This study proposes a method that can be used to provide guidelines to aircraft reconnaissance for hurricane observations. The method combines numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with a statistical approach to target adaptive observations over areas where the hurricane predictions are very sensitive to the initial analysis for the NWP-model. A single model experiment is performed using regular initial analysis, while 50 other ensemble runs are performed from randomly perturbed initial states. Under the perfect model assumption, the single model experiment serves as a true state. The method first computes the forecast error variances at a certain verification time, e.g. hour 48, and then locates the maximum centers of variances. After the locations of the maximum forecast error variances are known, various correlations of different variables between these maximum variance points and the perturbation fields at the target time, e.g. hour 12, are calculated to identify those locations at the target time, over where the observational errors might be responsible for the growth of forecast error variances at the verification time. Statistically, these correlation fields indicate where the most sensitive areas are at the target time, i.e. where the need for additional observations is suggested. Hurricane Fran of 1996 is used to test the proposed method. The reason for choosing this case is that, during the first 48 hour forecast, the track forecast from NWP-model was very close to the best track. Two additional experiments were designed to examine the method. One experiment updates predicted variables at the target time (12 h) over the areas, to where the proposed method indicates the forecast would be sensitive. The updating combines observations (or truth) with the first guess (predicted) fields. Another experiment also modifies predicted variables at the target time (12 h), but over the areas where the method indicates the forecast errors are less correlated to. The results show that the modification has greatly reduced the forecast error variances at the verification time (48 h) in the first experiment, however it has a very little impact on the variance fields at the forecast hour (48 h) in the second experiment. It is very clear from our experiments, that the proposed method is able to identify sensitive areas, where additional observations can help to reduce hurricane forecast errors from an NWP-model. Received July 19, 1999 Revised November 28, 1999     

Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM

Summary ?The nonhydrostatic model LM was developed for small scale operational predictions. Advances in computer development will give the possibility of operational models of a rather fine scale, which will cover the meso-gamma scale. The LM is currently applied at a scale of 7 km and an increase of the operational resolution to 2.5 km is planned for the next few years. Predictions of such high resolution require to abandon the hydrostatic assumption, which is used with most current operational weather prediction models. The LM was designed to cover all resolutions from 50 m to 50 km with an efficiency making it suitable for operational use. It is a fully elastic model, using second order centred finite differences. The time integration is done using the Klemp–Wilhelmson method, treating the slow modes by a larger time step than the fast modes. The vertical propagation of the fast waves is done implicitly. After describing the design of the LM, this paper gives examples of model predictions at the meso-γ scale. Some results of the current operational application at the resolution 7 km are presented. Deficiencies in the localisation of model generated precipitation are investigated using an idealised bell shaped mountain and applying different resolutions. In this way the convergence to the correct solution can be investigated. From these results it is concluded, that orographic filtering is necessary and the effect of such filtering on precipitation forecasts is investigated. Finally, the prediction of a squall line over northern Germany is shown in order to demonstrate the potential of the model in forecasting the meso-γ scale. Received May 15, 2001; revised September 21, 2001     

Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. A real-time turbulence model (RTTM) designed for the operational prediction of hazardous aviation turbulence environments

Summary In this paper, we will focus on the real-time prediction of environments that are predisposed to producing moderate-severe (hazardous) aviation turbulence. We will describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system that is designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that simple hydrostatic precursor circulations organize regions of preferred wave breaking and turbulence at the nonhydrostatic scales of motion. This will be demonstrated with a hydrostatic numerical modeling system, which can be run in real time on a very inexpensive university computer workstation employing simple forecast indices. The forecast system is designed to efficiently support forecasters who are directing research aircraft to measure the environment immediately surrounding turbulence. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real-time on a university workstation in support of NASA-Langley’s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The model horizontal resolutions are 60, 30, and 15 km and the grids are centered over the region of operational NASA-Langley B-757 turbulence flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross section plot products are provided from 16,000–46,000 feet in 2,000 feet intervals. Products are available every three hours at the 60 and 30 km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15 km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.     

Assimilation of screen-level observations by variational soil moisture analysis

Summary Inaccurate specification of soil moisture contents can result in forecast errors up to several degrees centigrade. Since direct measurements are rarely available, a variational method has been developed that assimilates synoptic measurements of 2 m-temperature in order to specify the moisture contents of the two soil layers of the Local Model at Deutscher Wetterdienst. The analyzed values minimize a cost functional that expresses the differences between model forecast and observed screen-level temperatures. The minimization is performed highly efficiently and only two additional forecasts are required but neither tangent linear nor adjoint. Background state and background error covariance matrix are updated at each analysis step in a Kalman-filter-like cycled scheme, which takes a model error into account. The soil moisture assimilation shows improved 2 m-temperature forecasts in case of high radiative forcing by up to 3 °C for small areas in the presented 6-week trial run. It proved stability and robustness for general weather conditions and has become operational at DWD for the LM on 14 March 2000. Received August 21, 2000 Revised March 26, 2001     

Frontal modification and lee cyclogenesis in the Alps: A case study using the ALPEX reanalysis data set

Summary The interaction of a cold front with the Alps is studied by means of real-case numerical simulations for a case occurring at the end of the Alpine Experiment (ALPEX) on 28 April–2 May, 1982. Simulations are performed with the numerical weather prediction model chain Europa-Modell (EM) and its one-way nested high-resolution model (HM) of the German and Swiss Weather Services. The outer EM simulation (56 km horizontal resolution) uses initial and lateral boundary fields taken from the ALPEX-IIIb reanalysis data set. This reanalysis data set is based on the operational EM analysis scheme, but takes into consideration a wide range of field phase data taken during the ALPEX field campaign. A comparison of simulations driven by the ALPEX and ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) data is performed. The simulation driven by the former captures the intensity and vertical depth of the developing lee cyclone substantially better than the corresponding run driven by the ERA. The transient development of the impingement of a cold front on the Alps induces a wide range of mesoscale phenomenon such as flow splitting, mistral, north foehn, cyclogenesis, anticyclonic vortex and bora. These flow evolutions are analyzed using HM simulations with a horizontal resolution of 14 km and visualized performing comprehensive trajectory calculations. Received September 9, 2000/Revised November 28, 2000     

Mesoscale modeling of katabatic winds over Greenland and comparisons with AWS and aircraft data

Summary Simulations of the katabatic wind system over the Greenland ice sheet for the two months April and May 1997 were performed using the Norwegian Limited Area Model (NORLAM) with a horizontal resolution of 25 km. The model results are intercompared and validated against observational data from automatic weather stations (AWS), global atmospheric analyses and instrumented aircraft observations of individual cases during that period. The NORLAM is able to simulate the synoptic developments and daily cycle of the katabatic wind system realistically. For most of the cases covered by aircraft observations, the model results agree very well with the measured developments and structures of the katabatic wind system in the lowest 400 m. Despite NORLAM’s general ability of reproducing the four-dimensional structure of the katabatic wind, problems occur in cases, when the synoptic background is not well captured by the analyses used as initial and boundary conditions for the model runs or where NORLAM fails to correctly predict the synoptic development. The katabatic wind intensity in the stable boundary layer is underestimated by the model in cases when the simulated synoptic forcing is too weak. An additional problem becomes obvious in cases when the model simulates clouds in contrast to the observations or when the simulated clouds are too thick compared to the observed cloud cover. In these cases, the excessive cloud amount prevents development of the katabatic wind in the model. Received September 22, 2000/Revised March 16, 2001     

CMA-BJ V2.0系统华北地区降水预报性能评估

利用CMA-BJ V2.0系统在2021年汛期(6—9月)华北地区预报的平均日降水量和24 h内逐时降水量,评估不同水平分辨率(3 km和9 km)在降水量、有效降水时次占比、降水强度、降水日变化等方面的预报性能。结果表明:9 km和3 km分辨率预报均可较好地反映降水量和落区,捕捉平均日降水量大于8 mm的降水区域分布特征,但降水量级的预报较观测偏大;对小时降水量和有效降水时次占比日变化的预报与观测基本一致,但对傍晚的峰值预报偏强,且多个时段空报,同时高估了小时降水量。与9 km分辨率预报相比,3 km分辨率预报对有效降水时次占比随累积降水量的变化趋势与观测更接近,对小时有效降水时次占比日变化、峰谷值出现时间的预报也与观测更接近。9 km分辨率预报对弱降水过程的预报能力更优,而3 km分辨率预报对强降水过程的预报能力更优。