滞弹性系统中对称扰动的涡度方程的特征分析

采用滞弹性近似下的三维中尺度大气动力学方程组,得到了滞弹性系统中对称扰动的涡度方程,并对涡度方程中各物理量进行分析。研究结果表明,相对于浅对流的情况而言,深对流情况下对称扰动的涡度方程较为复杂,滞弹性近似对于研究深对流运动是有效的。     

热带平流层低层的对称运动和反对称运动

文章从对赤道β平面上静止大气中线性方程分解着手,得出控制对称运动和反对称运动方程组,对方程求解,从理论上证实在热带子流层低层中存在两种特殊性质的运动即对称运动和反对称运动,并证实赤道Kelvin波是典型的对称运动,而混合罗斯贝-重力波是反对称运动。文章分析了非绝热加热对对称运动和反对称运动的影响,当非绝热加热为唯一的外源扰动时,对称的非绝热加热是产生Kelvin波的重要条件,而反对称的非绝热加热是产生赤道区域平流层混合罗斯贝-重力波的重要条件。另外,随着非绝热加热增加,对称运动和反对称运动强度也增加。     

凝结加热对对称不稳定影响的数值研究

将对流凝结加热引入到一准两维的非静力数值模式中，然后用该模式研究了凝结加热对对称不稳定的影响。试验结果表明：加入对流凝结加热后，可使基本状态是对称稳定的扰动得以发展，并产生向暖区移动的不稳定扰动。而加热振幅及加热廓线的垂直分布对不稳定扰动的发展、演变、移动及结构都有显著的影响。     

Wave-CISK与对称不稳定

本文主要研究了存在凝结加热时的对称不稳定,对流凝结加热采用了Wave-CISK方案.计算结果表明对流凝结加热通过CISK机制可以产生传播的对称不稳定扰动,且对扰动的传播方向、增长率及结构有影响.     

Wave-CISK与快速增长的对称不稳定

本文应用一准两维的非静力平衡数值模式研究了凝结加热反馈对线性及非线性对称不稳定的影响。数值试验结果表明:当Ri<1时，对于一定的加热廓线，Wave-CISK可以激发出快速增长的线性对称不稳定，其指数增长率比无加热时增加一倍半，并产生向暖区的移动，而加热廓线对对称不稳定的发生发展及结构都有明显的影响。具有凝结加热的非线性对称不稳定在其发展初期与线性情况相同，当扰动增长到一定强度，非线性作用增强，其不稳定增长速度就减慢，原来对称的环流结构被破坏，正环流不断减弱，负环流不断增强。     

大尺度加热与东西风带中不稳定扰动的激发

文中通过一些简化假定,得到了包括非绝热加热的一参数模式。导得加热存在下的正压不稳定的必要条件是β-d~2u/dy~2 q~2u S~2H/K=0,研究了大尺度加热对东西风带不稳定扰动及定常波型扰动的作用。结果指出,加热场对东西风带正压不稳定扰动的影响与加热和流场的相对配置有关。此外,大尺度加热可以在西风带激发出定常波型扰动,而在东风带只能产生衰减型扰动。激发西风带定常波型扰动的非绝热加热场的水平半径尺度,应大于L_c=(u/β)~(1/2)。最后还考虑了摩擦的作用。     

WAVE-CISK对称不稳定谱点分布的半圆定理

采用滞弹性近似研究了WAVE-CISK下对称性扰动的谱点分布,得到了WAVE-CISK下对称不稳定扰动谱点分布的半圆定理,用其可估计该对称不稳定增长率的上界.发现存在WAVE-CISK时加热反馈和层结参数对该不稳定的增长率均有重要影响.WAVE-CISK加热反馈越强、基流的垂直切变越大,扰动的垂直结构越简单则该不稳定增长率的上界就越大.存在WAVE-CISK时滞弹性近似下的对称不稳定发生的条件也较Boussinesq近似下的更苛刻.     

中尺度对称不稳定和横波不稳定的波动性质

使用纬向线性以及非线性切变基流下中尺度扰动的Boussinesq近似方程组，讨论了两种典型的中尺度扰动发生对称不稳定或者横波不稳定时，其不稳定的一些特征以及扰动的波动性质。研究结果表明：（1）对于扰动的等位相面平行于基本气流方向的对称性扰动来说，对称不稳定的波动实质是沿着与基本气流方向相垂直的方向传播的重力惯性内波的不稳定。基流二次切变对于中尺度对称扰动来说是一个不稳定因子，并且驱动不稳定的中尺度对称扰动在南北方向传播；（2）对于扰动的等位相面垂直于基本气流方向的横波性扰动来说，在基本气流为常数或者只具有线性切变的情况下，此时根本不存在涡旋Rossby波，横波不稳定的波动实质则是沿着基本气流方向双向传播的重力惯性内波的不稳定。如果考虑基本流场的风速存在二次切变或者非线性切变时，此时就会产生一支新的波动（涡旋Rossby波），涡旋Rossby波相对于基本气流^-U0是单向传播的，涡旋Rossby波产生的物理根源是基本流场的风速^-U二次切变（β＊=^-Uzz≠0），此时横波型不稳定可能是混合的涡旋Rossby——重力波的不稳定。实际大气中，涡旋Rossby波对于中够尺度对流云核、暴雨团等天气系统的发生、发展和演变的物理机制具有极其重要的意义。     

具有凝结加热反馈的对称不稳定的解析研究

本文采用非地转非静力条件下存在对流凝结加热反馈的Boussinesq方程组,借用Emanuel(1982)的Wave-CISK方案来考虑凝结反馈作用,并应用Green函数方法和Fourier方法,求得了任意加热廓线时对称不稳定的流函数的解析表达式及其频散关系。本文还对取某些特定的加热廓线时的情况进行了讨论。      

β中尺度扰动的不稳定增长率分布

本文采用线性化、无粘、绝热的 Boussinesq方程组 ,研究了 β中尺度波段的不稳定问题 ,讨论在不同理逊数下扰动的稳定性增长率分布。在不同的 Ri下 ,不稳定的出现对波长有选择性 ,在小 Ri 时 ,即 Ri<0 .95 ,β中尺度波段存在对称不稳定 ,Ri 数越小 ,对称不稳定的增长率越大 ,此外还存在横波型扰动的不稳定和斜交型扰动的不稳定。当 Ri 数增大时 ,Ri>1时对称不稳定已不存在 ,但其余两类不稳定仍存在 ,且在 β中尺度波段中较大尺度的扰动以横波型扰动的不稳定占优 ,而较小尺度的扰动以斜交型扰动的不稳定占优。     

Climate policy strength compared: China,the US,the EU,India, Russia,and Japan

The few systematic international comparisons of climate policy strength made so far have serious weaknesses, particularly those that assign arbitrary weightings to different policy instrument types in order to calculate an aggregate score for policy strength. This article avoids these problems by ranking the six biggest emitters by far – China, the US, the EU, India, Russia, and Japan – on a set of six key policy instruments that are individually potent and together representative of climate policy as a whole: carbon taxes, emissions trading, feed-in tariffs, renewable energy quotas, fossil fuel power plant bans, and vehicle emissions standards. The results cast strong doubt on any idea that there is a clear hierarchy on climate policy with Europe at the top: the EU does lead on a number of policies but so does Japan. China, the US, and India each lead on one area. Russia is inactive on all fronts. At the same time climate policy everywhere remains weak compared to what it could be.

Policy relevance

This study enables climate policy strength, defined as the extent to which the statutory provisions of climate policies are likely to restrict GHG emissions if implemented as intended, to be assessed and compared more realistically across space and time. As such its availability for the six biggest emitters, which together account for over 70% of global CO₂ emissions, should facilitate international negotiations (1) by giving participants a better idea of where major emitters stand relative to each other as far as climate policy stringency is concerned, and (2) by identifying areas of weakness that need action.     

The temperature dependent,infrared absorption cross-sections for the chlorofluorocarbons: CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-13, CFC-14, CFC-22, CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115

The infrared absorption cross-sections for eight commonly used halogenated methanes and ethanes have been measured as a function of temperature from 203 to 293 K. High resolution spectra (0.03 cm^-1) have been used to derive integrated band strengths and peak cross-sections associated with the spectral features in the infrared region from 600 to 1500 cm^-2. The values obtained in this study are compared to those from previous reports, and recommendations are made for uses in atmospheric sensing and radiative energy transfer models. The observed temperature dependence in the spectral features is also discussed.     

基于L波段探空的云区边界识别改进算法

利用气象业务中使用的L波段探空数据和毫米波云雷达观测资料,分析探空相对湿度在入云和出云时的变化规律,提出一种基于探空相对湿度阈值与梯度相结合的云区边界识别改进算法,并利用云雷达观测数据对算法识别结果进行验证.利用北京市南郊观象台2019年1—6月层状云样本验证分析,结果表明:改进算法相比相对湿度阈值法,对云区边界识别更...     

承德市一次由快速发展气旋诱发的大风天气分析

利用常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR(1°×1°)逐6 h再分析资料,对承德市2017年5月5—6日大风天气的环流形势和物理量进行分析,结果表明气旋的快速发展(气旋加深率0.84 B)导致锋生加强,引发气压和变压梯度加大是导致大风的直接原因。500 hPa高压脊东移迫使冷空气向南堆积,高空槽不断发展成为冷涡,温度平流为地面气旋的发展提供热力条件,高低层涡度平流的差异,也是地面气旋快速发展的重要原因;当1.5 PVU位涡面伸展至对流层低层时,局地位涡异常在气旋的发展过程中不可忽视;高空急流出口区发生质量调整,出口区左侧的辐散强度达10×10~(-5) s~(-1),使低层大气减压,有利于气旋发展。     

Wind-Driven, Double-Gyre, Ocean Circulation in a Reduced-Gravity, 2.5-Layer, Lattice Boltzmann Model

A coupled lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with second-order accuracy is applied to the reduced-gravity, shallow water, 2.5-layer model for wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the secondorder integral approximation for the collision operator, the model becomes fully explicit. The Coriolis force and other external forces are included in the model with second-order accuracy, which is consistent with the discretization accuracy of the LB equation. The feature of the multiple equilibria solutions is found in the numerical experiments under different Reynolds numbers based on this LB scheme. With the Reynolds number increasing from 3000 to 4000, the solution of this model is destabilized from the anti-symmetric double-gyre solution to the subtropic gyre solution and then to the subpolar gyre solution. The transitions between these equilibria states are also found in some parameter ranges. The time-dependent variability of the circulation based on this LB simulation is also discussed for varying viscosity regimes. The flow of this model exhibits oscillations with different timescales varying from subannual to interannual. The corresponding statistical oscillation modes are obtained by spectral analysis. By analyzing the spatiotemporal structures of these modes, it is found that the subannual oscillation with a 9-month period originates from the barotropic Rossby basin mode, and the interarmual oscillations with periods ranging from 1.5 years to 4.6 years originate from the recirculation gyre modes, which include the barotropic and the baroclinic recirculation gyre modes.     

江苏三次不同量级降雪过程的对比分析

利用常规观测资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,通过对发生在江苏的三次不同量级的区域性暴雪、大雪和中雪过程典型个例进行对比分析,发现降雪时,700hPa低空急流的位置和强度是影响降雪量级的主要因素之一;降雪区上空涡度的垂直分布遵循低层负涡度、中层正涡度和高层负涡度的配置,暴雪时正涡度强且正涡度区最为深厚,动力抬升作用强,中雪发生时正涡度区相对最为浅薄,不利于形成强辐合抬升,动力抬升作用弱。且暴雪和大雪发生时基本上整层都为垂直螺旋度正值区,中雪时没有出现明显的正值区;暴雪和大雪过程时中低层都具有明显的逆温层,中高层西南急流造成的对流层中层的爆发性增温是逆温层形成的关键,中雪发生时不一定有逆温层结;降雪强度与湿位涡分量绝对值存在一定的正相关关系。     

1,800 Years of abrupt climate change, severe fire, and accelerated erosion, Sierra Nevada, California, USA

This paper provides both a detailed history of environmental change in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years and evidence for climate teleconnections between the Sierra Nevada and Greenland during the late Holocene. A review of Greenland ice core data suggests that the magnitudes of abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation increased beginning c. 3,700 and 3,000 years ago, respectively. Precipitation increased abruptly 1,300 years ago. Comparing paleotemperature data from Cirque Peak, CA with paleoprecipitation data from Pyramid Lake, NV suggests that hot temperatures occurred at the beginnings of most severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years. Severe fires and erosion also occurred at Coburn Lake, CA at the beginning of all severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years. This suggests that abrupt climate change during the late Holocene caused vegetation and mountain slopes in some areas to be out of equilibrium with abruptly changed climates. Finally, the ending of drought conditions in Greenland coincided with the beginning of drought conditions in the Sierra Nevada over the past 1,800 years, perhaps as a result of the rapidly changed locations of the Earth??s major precipitation belts during abrupt climate change events.     

Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice: Pathways, players, and partnerships

Vulnerability, adaptation and resilience are concepts that are finding increasing currency in several fields of research as well as in various policy and practitioner communities engaged in global environmental change science, climate change, sustainability science, disaster risk-reduction and famine interventions. As scientists and practitioners increasingly work together in this arena a number of questions are emerging: What is credible, salient and legitimate knowledge, how is this knowledge generated and how is it used in decision making? Drawing on important science in this field, and including a case study from southern Africa, we suggest an alternative mode of interaction to the usual one-way interaction between science and practice often used. In this alternative approach, different experts, risk-bearers, and local communities are involved and knowledge and practice is contested, co-produced and reflected upon. Despite some successes in the use and negotiation of such knowledge for ‘real’ world issues, a number of problems persist that require further investigation including the difficulties of developing consensus on the methodologies used by a range of stakeholders usually across a wide region (as the case study of southern Africa shows, particularly in determining and identifying vulnerable groups, sectors, and systems); slow delivery of products that could enhance resilience to change that reflects not only a lack of data, and need for scientific credibility, but also the time-consuming process of coming to a negotiated understanding in science–practice interactions and, finally, the need to clarify the role of ‘external’ agencies, stakeholders, and scientists at the outset of the dialogue process and subsequent interactions. Such factors, we argue, all hinder the use of vulnerability and resilience ‘knowledge’ that is being generated and will require much more detailed investigation by both producers and users of such knowledge.     

The microstructure of selected, small, isolated, cumulus clouds near Red Deer, Alberta

Physical experiments designed to explore the potential of rain augmentation through airborne glaciogenic seeding on small, isolated non-precipitating cumuliform clouds near Red Deer, Alberta were carried out during the period 1982–1985. The microstructure of 90 cumulus congestus clouds have been documented through repeated in-situ sampling using a cloud physics instrumented aircraft platform. Observations from the inspection passes of 57 clouds seeded with either dry ice pellets or silver iodide pyrotechnics, and all the passes of 33 natural clouds are presented.Measurements of the cloud droplet concentration indicate that Alberta cumulus clouds are typically continental in nature, with an average droplet concentration of 535 cm⁻³ and an average droplet diameter of 10.6 μm. Alberta clouds have average liquid water contents of 0.57 g m⁻³, with a peak 1-sec value of 3.17 g m⁻³. The 1-km average liquid water contents are 0.83 g m⁻³, with a peak value of 2.81 g m⁻³. Cloud lifetimes vary between 11 and 20 minutes. Concentrations of naturally occurring ice crystals are found to be low. The average maximum 1-km ice concentration was 31⁻¹, and the peak 1-km concentration was 73.11⁻¹ in the natural cloud dataset. Evidence of precipitation-sized particles was detected in 21% (7 of 33) of the clouds, and precipitation below cloud base was detected in 6% (2 of 33) of the clouds.A comparison of the Alberta cloud characteristics to the cumulus clouds from different locations showed that there are some distinct differences between Alberta clouds and the clouds from the other regions.     

Weeds, Insects, and Diseases

The geographic distribution, vigor, virulence, and agricultural impact of weeds, insects, and plant pathogens will be affected by climatic changes accompanying the global "greenhouse effect." Weed/crop competitive interactions, particularly among species differing in photosynthetic pathway (C₃ v C₄), may be altered, with the C₃ species favored by increasing CO₂. Physiological and biochemical changes induced in host crop plants by rising CO₂ may affect feeding patterns of pest insects. Compilation of climatic thresholds for phenological development of pest insects reveals the potential for shifts in pest behavior induced by global warming and other climatic change. Generation times may be reduced, enabling more rapid population increases to occur. Poleward migration may be accelerated during the crop season. The epidemiology of plant diseases also will be altered. Prediction of disease outbreaks will be more difficult in periods of rapidly changing climate and unstable weather. Environmental instability and increased incidence of extreme weather may reduce the effectiveness of pesticides on targeted pests or result in more injury to non-target organisms. Biological control may be affected either negatively or positively. Overall, the challenge to agriculture from pests probably will increase.