中国干旱研究学术交流会在济南召开

１０月８日,中国气象学会干旱气象学委员会、山东省气象局和山东省气象学会、华北地区干旱预测系统研究专题协作组、西北地区干旱预测系统研究协作组在济南联合举办了中国干旱研究学术交流会。来自全国２０个省市区和气象院所的６２名专家、学者提交了８０篇论文,大会报...     

青海省干旱服务系统设计与建立

在阐述本省干旱概念、类型、成因与评估指标的基础上，确定了旱情监测区域，采用地面常规监测、气候监测和空间遥感监测相结合的方法，设计和建立了“监测-评估-预测-预警”信息业务系统，为研究干旱发生规律，及时监测、预测干旱的发生及对旱情程度的评估，提供科学依据。     

新一代"西北干旱监测预测业务服务综合系统"

新一代“西北干旱监测预测服务综合业务系统”,是一个具有较好物理基础,较强的监测、预测、服务能力,较高自动化程度并具有西北地域特色的业务服务综合系统。本系统以短期气候预测为依托,集气象信息采集、加工、信息存储为一体,并充分利用互联网技术和已有的系统、资料及信息,吸纳了项目其它子专题的系统和成果,节省了计算机海量空间,避免了许多重复劳动,在近几年日常监测、预测业务服务工作中发挥了积极作用。     

西北干旱指标研究的综合评述

西北干旱指标研究的综合评述朱炳瑗谢金南邓振镛（甘肃省气象局,兰州７３００２０）干旱气象指标的研究与应用是“西北地区干旱预测系统研究”专题的关键问题,也是服务的重点和研究的难点。本文就目前使用的几种类型的干旱指标作初步综合评述,目的是想在这个问题上取得...     

大同市短期农业气候干旱预测系统

本文系统利用计算机技术，结合多种统计学方法，对大同市干旱进行了全面细致地分析预测，通过实践表明，采取预报集砀方法能提高农业气修干旱预报准确率。     

辽宁省农业干旱监测预报业务系统的设计与实现

为了提高农业干旱的监测预测服务能力,减少农业干旱对社会生产生活的影响,通过对干旱信息的采集、存储、加工处理和干旱产品的制作发布等环节进行梳理与完善,构建辽宁省农业干旱监测预报业务系统,实现了对农业干旱的一体化、精细化和定量化监测和预测,实现了干旱产品的标准化、自动化制作和发布。该系统依托农业干旱监测技术、遥感干旱监测技术、农业干旱预报技术等手段,实现了观测数据的收集存储、干旱信息的展示分析和干旱产品的制作发布等功能,并形成了省、市、县一体化干旱服务体系。最终实现对干旱的全方位监测、立体化服务模式,从而提高应对干旱灾害的防灾减灾能力。该系统的业务化应用提高了农业干旱监测预测的定量化、自动化和智能化水平,提升了地面和卫星遥感干旱监测预测的业务能力。该系统构建的省市县一体化服务模式,形成了省级农业气象业务中心统一制作干旱产品,省、市、县3级同时开展精细化干旱指导服务的体系。     

K干旱指数在甘肃省干旱监测业务中的应用

利用K干旱指数及其干旱监测预测业务系统,着重介绍了K干旱指数在甘肃省干旱监测业务中的应用。从K干旱指数的定义、等级、标准、应用及其监测结果与实际干旱状况的比较方面进行了分析。结果表明,与实际的旱情比较,K干旱指数在甘肃省2008年春季、5月、6月、伏期（7—8月）以及秋季前期9月的干旱监测中有较好的监测效果。     

美国干旱监测预测业务发展及其科学挑战

干旱是全球普遍存在的对人类影响最为严重的一种自然灾害。近百年气候显著变暖和社会快速发展,加剧了干旱的影响程度,增强了干旱灾害的风险,给全球农业、水资源、生态环境安全以及社会可持续发展造成巨大威胁。提高干旱监测和早期预警技术是应对、管理干旱以及减轻干旱脆弱性的基础。本文介绍了近年来美国在干旱监测、预测业务及研究方面取得的新进展,回顾了美国在区域和全球尺度下干旱监测及数值模式预报系统的发展,重点概述了干旱科学研究与技术进步,并结合2016年美国政府部门的抗旱任务书,讨论了干旱监测和预测面临的机遇与挑战,为我国干旱监测与预测发展提供新视角。     

中国西北地区东部近546年干旱事件特征分析

以西北地区东部的17个代表站1470—2008年的旱涝等级资料和1958—2015年5—9月气象站降水量数据为基础，建立了546年中国西北地区东部旱涝等级序列，采用经验正交函数分解、滑动t检验等统计方法，对其干湿演变规律进行分析，详细讨论了546年极端干旱事件及干旱持续性特征。结果表明:旱涝等级资料能够较好地反映西北地区东部干旱变化的时、空特征；在百年尺度上，20世纪发生旱、偏旱最为频繁，且高值区位于宁夏及陕北；干旱尺度因子的空间分布表明宁夏东部及陕北地区的干旱持续性相对较强，陇南及陕西南部地区的干旱持续性较差；空间范围较大且强度较大的重大干旱事件对干旱的持续发生起重要作用，历史上发生在1470—1500年和1910—1940年的两次西北地区东部百年甚至两百年一遇的极端干旱事件，对该地区干旱持续性的影响较为显著。      

西北地区干旱预测系统研讨会

1会议概况国家“九五”期间重中之重项目“96－908－05－03”课题——“西北地区干旱预测系统研究”第三次工作研讨会,于1999年5月5－6日在兰州召开。来自南京气象学院、中国科学院大气物理研究所以及新疆、青海、宁夏、陕西、甘肃等西北五省的代表共20多人参加了会议。会议主要就下列内容进行了讨论和交流：门）各专题及配套协作项目工作进展情况;（2）演示“西北地区干旱预测系统汛期子系统”并征求修改意见;”（3）业务系统研制的技术要点;闪开展1988－1997年预报评估工作;（5）阶段性研究成果如何向业务应用转化问题;（6）1999年…     

要重视指示性云的观测及编码

以一些易被忽略、简化的指示性云状及编码为依据,论述云天演变,对于观测、记录及编码具有重要意义。     

要重视指示性云的观测及编码

以一些易被忽略、简化的指示性云状及编码为依据，论述云天演变，对于观测、记录及编码具有重要意义。     

对百色工业立市气象信息服务的探讨

就百色工业立市的情况作简要概叙,并在工业立市进程中,除了决策和公益气象服务以外,气象信息服务的市场前景、营销人员队伍、服务中应注意的事项及气象信息服务的可能服务对象和内容作了较为详细的探讨。     

综合布线系统在气象核心网络升级中的应用

综合布线系统采用标准化的语音、数据、图像、监控设备,各线综合配置在一套标准的布线系统上,统一布线设计、安装施工和集中管理维护。综合布线系统在广东省气象局核心网络升级综合布线实际应用效果明显。     

综合布线系统在气象核心网络升级中的应用

综合布线系统采用标准化的语音、数据、图像、监控设备，各线综合配置在一套标准的布线系统上，统一布线设计、安装施工和集中管理维护。综合布线系统在广东省气象局核心网络升级综合布线实际应用效果明显。     

The Impact Of Air-Flow Separation On The Drag Of The Sea Surface

An approach that allows assessment ofthe impact of air-flow separation (AFS) fromwave breaking fronts on the sea-surface drag is presented. Wave breaking fronts are modelled by the discontinuities of the sea-surface slope. It is assumedthat the dynamics of the AFS from wave breaking crests is similar to thatfrom the backward facing step. The form drag supported by an individualbreaker is described by the action of the pressure drop distributed alongthe forward face of the breaking front. The total stress due to the AFS isobtained as a sum of contributions from breaking fronts of different scales.Outside the breaking fronts the drag of the sea surface is supported by theviscous surface stress and the wave-induced stress. To calculate the stressdue to the AFS and the wave-induced stress a physical model of the wind-wavespectrum is used. Together with the model of the air flow described in termsof surface stresses it forms a self-consistent dynamical system for the seasurface-atmosphere where the air flow and wind waves are strongly coupled.Model calculations of the drag coefficient agree with measurements. It is shownthat the dimensionless Charnock parameter (roughness length normalized onthe square of the friction velocity and the acceleration of gravity)increases with the increase of the wind speed in agreement with fieldmeasurements. The stress due to the AFS normalized on the square of thefriction velocity is proportional to the cube of wind speed. At low windsthe viscous surface stress dominates the drag. The role of the form drag,which is the sum of the stress due to the AFS and the wave-induced stress, isnegligible. At moderate and high winds the form drag dominates. At windspeeds higher than 10 m s^-1 the stress supported by the AFS becomescomparable to the wave-induced stress and supports up to 50% of the totalstress.     

黑潮OLR距平指数与华南西部主汛期降水的关系

OLR距平场与华南西部主汛期降水的相关分析场显示,在黑潮区域有强烈的高相关信号反映。黑潮区OLR距平指数与华南主汛期降水的遥相关分析显示,前期黑潮区OLR距平指数的异常,可以成为预测主汛期降水有一定指示意义的前兆信号。并在此基础上建立主成分降维分析方法,对1989~2000年主汛期降水作预测及回代检验,检验结果准确率达75%,说明用黑潮区OLR距平指数作为预报因子可以取得良好的预报成绩。     

对夜间云观测的体会

介绍夜间进行云观测的工作程序,对云的特征进行分析,提出了观测云的注意事项。     

On The Influence Of The Eulerian Velocity PDF Closure On The Eddy Diffusion Coefficient

The flux-gradient model, often used to describe turbulent dispersion, implicitly defines an eddy diffusion coefficient K that is known to be related to the Eulerian probability density function (pdf) of the turbulent velocity field. In the strict limit of applicability of Fick's law, the relationship between K and the pdf is used to investigate the influence of non-Gaussianity on dispersion in homogeneous turbulence. A bi-Gaussian pdf is used as a closure model that allows for separate studies of skewness and kurtosis variations. The choice of model parameters can have a significant influence on K, especially when the pdf is bimodal. Both arbitrariness of the closure and bimodality are then reduced using the maximum entropy criterion for the selection of the free parameter of the closure scheme, together with the assumption that the model is valid only for those values of the parameters for which a unimodal pdf is possible. The variations of K are found to be sensitive to both skewness and kurtosis showing a more complex behaviour than that found in literature.     

The Role Of Halocarbons In The Climate Change Of The Troposphere And Stratosphere

Releases of halocarbons into the atmosphere over the last 50 years are among the factors that have contributed to changes in the Earth’s climate since pre-industrial times. Their individual and collective potential to contribute directly to surface climate change is usually gauged through calculation of their radiative efficiency, radiative forcing, and/or Global Warming Potential (GWP). For those halocarbons that contain chlorine and bromine, indirect effects on temperature via ozone layer depletion represent another way in which these gases affect climate. Further, halocarbons can also affect the temperature in the stratosphere. In this paper, we use a narrow-band radiative transfer model together with a range of climate models to examine the role of these gases on atmospheric temperatures in the stratosphere and troposphere. We evaluate in detail the halocarbon contributions to temperature changes at the tropical tropopause, and find that they have contributed a significant warming of ~0.4 K over the last 50 years, dominating the effect of the other well-mixed greenhouse gases at these levels. The fact that observed tropical temperatures have not warmed strongly suggests that other mechanisms may be countering this effect. In a climate model this warming of the tropopause layer is found to lead to a 6% smaller climate sensitivity for halocarbons on a globally averaged basis, compared to that for carbon dioxide changes. Using recent observations together with scenarios we also assess their past and predicted future direct and indirect roles on the evolution of surface temperature. We find that the indirect effect of stratospheric ozone depletion could have offset up to approximately half of the predicted past increases in surface temperature that would otherwise have occurred as a result of the direct effect of halocarbons. However, as ozone will likely recover in the next few decades, a slightly faster rate of warming should be expected from the net effect of halocarbons, and we find that together halocarbons could bring forward next century’s expected warming by ~20 years if future emissions projections are realized. In both the troposphere and stratosphere CFC-12 contributes most to the past temperature changes and the emissions projection considered suggest that HFC-134a could contribute most of the warming over the coming century.