Prognostic significance of dynamic factors of precipitation generation

On the basis of objective analysis of meteorological fields and 12-h precipitation amounts observed at the stations in the former European USSR, statistical relationships are studied between the diagnostic characteristics of dynamic forcing of vertical motion and occurrence frequency of precipitation of different intensity ranges over the whole area and each of six separate regions. The following diagnostics are considered: frontal parameter as a measure of baroclinicity and of pressure field curvature; neutral buoyancy level as a measure of grid-scale convective instability; scalar frontogenetic function at the 850-hPa level and dynamic tropopause height as measures of intensity of vertical transverse circulations in unstable baroclinic zones. Informativity estimates are presented of each diagnostic and their pair combinations as precipitation predictors. The frontal parameter (in all seasons) and the neutral buoyancy level (in all seasons but winter) are significant as single predictors of precipitation. Among the pair combinations of the diagnostics, those which include the frontal parameter are more informative, and the combination of the latter and the neutral buoyancy level is the most informative one. A comparable informativity, under certain conditions, is demonstrated by the combinations of the frontal parameter with the frontogenetic function and with the tropopause height (in particular, in winter and fall for heavy and very heavy precipitation). In all the cases, the values of the informativity criterion (Pierce’s index) are higher for more intense precipitation as a predictand.     

An Objective Identification Method for Wintertime Cold Fronts in Eurasia

The present study identifies wintertime cold fronts in Eurasia from gridded datasets using a new objective two-step identification scheme. The simple and classic conception of a front is adopted, where a cold front is identified as the warm boundary of the frontal zone with a suitable horizontal temperature gradient and cold advection. We combine the traditional thermal front parameter with temperature advection to first identify the cold frontal zone, and then its eastern and southern boundaries are objectively plotted as a cold front in Eurasia. By comparing different cold front identification methods, the results from this two-step cold front identification method and subjective analysis are more consistent, and the positions of the cold front identified with our method are more reasonable. This objective technique is also applied to a nationwide cold wave event over China. Results show that the horizontal extent and movement of the cold front are in good agreement with the related circulation and the associated cold weather. The proposed method and results in this study may shed light on the rapid identification of cold fronts in operational weather analysis and facilitate further research on the long-term activity characteristics of continental cold fronts.     

Dynamical aspects of frontal analysis

Summary Following the empirical rules of frontal analysis on synoptic scale weather maps, a criterion has been derived, which allows an objective determination of the frontal position and the frontal intensity. It can be shown that the extreme value lines of the crossfrontal second derivative of several atmospheric variables are relevant to resolve the structure of the ageostrophic secondary frontal circulation. This is being shown by the application of quasigeostrophic theory (Q-vector approach) as well as with the approach to ageostrophic motion by Phillips' approximation. With the aid of a case study the application of the method with regard to several atmospheric variables is shown. It is shown that the empirical rules may well be interpreted in terms of the dynamical behaviour of fronts.With 17 Figures     

Fronts and the boundary layer – some numerical studies

In this paper, we consider boundary-layer effects on atmospheric fronts. For this purpose we developed a dry, hydrostatic, two-dimensional numerical model with turbulence parameterized with the 1/2 -order eddy viscosity closure of Mellor and Yamada. In the surface layer we use Monin–Obukhov similarity and there is an interactive soil model to obtain lower boundary conditions for the atmospheric model. First, effects of turbulence are studied without thermal forcing at the surface and comparisons are made between inviscid and turbulent conditions. Sensitivity studies with respect to surface roughness are also performed. Subsequently we study effects of surface thermal forcing on fronts. The results show that, during summer, fronts display strong diurnal variation. Vertical velocities increase significantly during the day while gradients in temperature and vorticity across the front strengthen in the evening and at night. In winter the diurnal variation is much less pronounced. We attempt to find physical mechanisms responsible for such frontal behaviour and we compare our results with available observations.     

Characteristics of sea breeze front development with various synoptic conditions and its impact on lower troposphere ozone formation

To examine the correlation between the sizes of sea breeze fronts and pollutants under the influence of synoptic fields, a numerical simulation was conducted in the southeast coastal area of the Korean Peninsula, where relatively high concentrations of pollutants occur because of the presence of various kinds of industrial developments. Sea breeze and sea breeze front days during the period 2005-09 were identified using wind profiler data and, according to the results, the number of days were 72 and 53, respectively. When synoptic forcing was weak, sea breeze fronts moved fast both in horizontal fields and in terms of wind velocity, while in the case of strong synoptic forcing, sea breeze fronts remained at the coast or moved slowly due to strong opposing flows. In this case, the sea breeze front development function and horizontal potential temperature difference were larger than with weak synoptic forcing. The ozone concentration that moves together with sea breeze fronts was also formed along the frontal surfaces. Ozone advection and diffusion in the case of strong synoptic forcing was suppressed at the frontal surface and the concentration gradient was large. The vertical distribution of ozone was very low due to the Thermal Internal Boundary Layer (TIBL) being low.     

新疆南部干旱区暴雨研究：科学认知与主要进展*

新疆南部(简称南疆)是典型的干旱区,地形和下垫面复杂,生态环境脆弱,对气候变化异常敏感。在全球变暖背景下,近年来南疆暴雨发生频率和强度明显增加,引起社会广泛关注。本文主要回顾了南疆干旱区暴雨的科学认知、研究进程和最新研究进展,南疆暴雨具有降水集中度高、相对强度大、极端性强、空间分布不均匀等特点。南疆暴雨研究经过了从大降水个例到多尺度相互作用机理和数值模拟发展应用的阶段,目前在南疆暴雨的重要影响天气系统和水汽输送等方面取得新的科学认识。最后,对干旱区暴雨科学研究的未来发展方向进行了简要的讨论和展望,以期承上启下,为未来新时期南疆暴雨研究提供创新基础。     

Subseasonal coupling between subsurface subtropical front and overlying atmosphere in North pacific in winter

At least two main oceanic fronts (the subarctic and subtropical fronts) exist in the North Pacific. Especially in the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ), the sea subsurface temperature gradient is significantly larger than that of the surface layer in winter. Subseasonal interaction between the subsurface subtropical front and overlaying atmosphere is revealed by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of oceanic temperature gradient. The first EOF mode mainly corresponds to the atmosphere-to-ocean influences. With the enhanced westerly wind, a cold sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) appears and then passes down to affect the subsurface ocean. However, the second EOF mode indicates the ocean-to-atmosphere forcing. For the second mode, cold oceanic temperature anomaly generates in the subsurface layer and passes up, which makes the SST gradient increasing. Due to the increasing atmospheric baroclinicity, the enhanced westerly wind leads to more heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, which results in a colder SSTA and a larger SST gradient in the STFZ. Therefore, a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback begins to maintain in the mid-latitude in winter.     

Frontal substructures within the planetary boundary layer

A two-dimensional mesoscale model, extended by a TKE closure for the subgrid-scale terms and coupled with a soil model, is used to investigate the role of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) for the development and the substructures of two different types of cold fronts. The effects of turbulent friction, large-scale (geostrophic) forcing and the diurnal variation of the terms of the surface energy balance (SEB) equation on the frontal development are studied by 10 different model runs. The ageostrophic cross-frontal circulation in the lowest two kilometres of a cold front results from friction as well as from large-scale forcing. The first one dominates the PBL processes and causes a special boundary-layer structure, which becomes apparent through the existence of seven characteristic zones defined for the x-z cross sections of potential temperature. The arrangement of these characteristic zones depends on the sense of rotation of the frictionally induced part of the ageostrophic circulation and hence on the direction of the along-front jet within the boundary layer. The daytime increase of the terms of the SEB equation for a midlatitude midsummer case leads to a strong enhancement of the frictionally induced cross-frontal circulation. The arrangement of the seven characteristic zones, however, is approximately conserved.     

相当湿位涡异常与梅雨锋暴雨分析

基于位涡异常与中尺度对流系统发展密切相关的分析事实,以及中尺度天气的发生发展的过程中水汽的重要作用,在引入水汽变化方程的基础上,导出了非均匀饱和大气中的相当湿位涡方程,进而分析了引起相当湿位涡异常的主要因子。依据相当湿位涡包含动力因子、热力因子和水汽因子的特点,利用相当湿位涡及增量对一次梅雨锋暴雨进行诊断和模拟分析,初步揭示了相当湿位涡及其增量对梅雨锋强降水的指示意义,相当湿位涡及其增量大值区对未来1～3小时的强降水具有较好的指示作用。针对梅雨锋暴雨,可以将梅雨湿度锋与相当湿位涡相结合作为强降水短时临近预报的一个指标。      

地形影响下冷锋的变形及锢囚

根据传统理论，将锋面看成密度的零级不连续面，设计了一个二层锋面模式，分别研究了东西走向与东北－西南走向的地形影响下冷锋的变形及锢囚现象。分析表明：不同高度的地形对于冷锋变形及锢囚的影响不同，同一高度的地形对于不同强度的冷锋运动也有不同的影响。通过分析研究，形象、直观地揭示了地形影响下冷锋变形及锢囚的一些规律，并与实际天气现象做了一些对比。此外，还分析了山区冷锋的垂直结构，指出冷锋在爬山时锋面中层会出现“隆起”现象，这反映了地形对于冷锋的非线性相互作用；锋面的这种“隆起”现象非常类似于气流过山时形成的“涌浪”（ｂｏｒｅ）。     

一种新的梅雨锋上中尺度涡旋识别方法

中尺度涡旋的发生、发展对梅雨锋暴雨常具有直接作用,客观准确地识别中尺度涡旋有助于提高暴雨预报的准确性。本研究提出一种从格点风场中自动识别中尺度涡旋中心的客观方法。利用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)提供的全球模式分析资料,选取2013—2014年梅雨期间两次暴雨个例,考察新方法识别中尺度涡旋的能力,并与现有的两种识别方法(分别基于相对涡度场与基于高度场)进行比较分析。结果表明,由于较小尺度的系统不遵守地转风规则,梅雨锋上许多涡旋的风场环流中心、涡度中心与低压中心位置不重合,影响通过涡度识别或气压识别方法的准确性。新方法从风场出发,可准确识别出大多数涡旋中心,误判率低,定位精度高于无人工辅助下的另外两种方法。接着利用新方法分析了两次暴雨个例中不同中尺度涡旋的垂直结构与时间演变。分析表明,新方法无需人工辅助,无特定层高和时间限制,可在短时间内识别出区域内所有中尺度涡旋的位置、三维结构与时间演变,可用于梅雨期间静止锋上中尺度涡旋的识别和路径的追踪,有助于预报员实时分析与预报暴雨。     

变性台风“麦德姆”(1410)环流中的锋生现象及其对降水的影响

利用中国气象局热带气旋年鉴、FY-2D（0.1°×0.1°）云顶亮温、逐时自动气象站降雨量、常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,运用锋生函数对台风“麦德姆”（Matmo,1410）影响辽东半岛和山东半岛期间的降水特征进行了诊断分析。结果表明：1）Matmo影响辽东半岛和山东半岛期间,其低压环流与西风带高空槽相互作用,在其西侧和东北侧分别有冷锋和暖锋锋生,两条锋带均向东移。强锋生区首先在低层生成,随后尽管高空锋区向下延伸,但并未与低层冷锋重合,低层冷锋锋生强度减弱。2）山东半岛和辽东半岛的降水均发生在台风低压环流的锋生过程中,但山东半岛的降水明显多于辽东半岛。这与锋生强度密切相关,辽东半岛的锋生强度和垂直运动较山东半岛明显偏弱。3）强降水与台风环流内冷、暖平流活动密切相关,冷暖平流交汇之处对强降水有较好的示踪作用。山东半岛始终处于冷暖平流交汇处,其西侧斜压不稳定加强,上升运动发展,强降水出现在冷锋带上暖平流区内;而辽东半岛由冷平流转为暖平流时,对流运动向其东北方向发展,强降水位于辽东半岛东北部。     

DISTORTION AND OCCLUSION OF COLD FRONTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OROGRAPHY

Following classical theory,a two-layer frontal model is designed.It assumes that frontal surface is the zero-order discontinuity of density.In this paper,the model is used to study orographically distorted and occluded fronts.It is indicated that the distortion and occlusion of cold fronts are different under different conditions of orography.Frontal intensity also influences the distortion and occlusion.Some rules are revealed and compared with observations.In addition,we have analysed the vertical structure of cold front above mountains and found that frontal surface may be bulged under the influence of orography when it climes the mountain.The bulge of frontal surface is just like the bore as pointed out by Long(1972) when he analysed fluid over obstacles.     

Numerical Simulations of the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on Cold Fronts in South-West Western Australia

The south-west of Western Australia has experienced significant land-cover change as well as a decline in rainfall. Given that most precipitation in the region results from frontal passages, the impact of land-cover change on the dynamics of cold fronts is explored using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System version 6.0. Frontal simulations are evaluated against high resolution atmospheric soundings, station observations, and gridded rainfall analyses and shown to reproduce the qualitative features of cold fronts. Land-cover change results in a decrease in total frontal precipitation through a decrease in boundary-layer turbulent kinetic energy and vertically integrated moisture convergence, and an increase in wind speed within the lower boundary layer. Such processes contribute to reduced convective rainfall under current vegetation cover.     

Simulation of the Effects of the Preceding SST Anomalies over the Tropical Eastern Pacific on Precipitation to the South of the Yangtze River in June

Numerical experiments are performed to simulate the response of the atmospheric circulation and pre-cipitation over East China in June to the sea surface temperature（SST）anomalies over the tropical eastern Pacific（TEP）from preceding September to June by using an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）.We constructed composite positive/negative SST anomalies（P-SSTAs/N-SSTAs）based on the observational SST anomalies over the TEP from September 1997 to June 1998.The results show that：（1） the response of the precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and its southern area（YRBS）to El Nino with different durations varies with the maximum amplitude of the precipitation anomalies appearing when the imposed duration is from November to next June,and the minimum appearing when the SST anomalies is only imposed in June.The anomalies of the precipitation are reduced when the duration of the forcing SST anomalies over the TEP is shortened and the positive SST anomalies in the preceding autumn tend to cause significantly more rainfall in the YRBS.This is in agreement with previous diagnostic analysis results.（2）The simulated precipitation anomalies over the YRBS are always obviously positive under strong or weak positive SST anomalies over the TEP.The intensity of the precipitation anomalies increases with increasing intensity of the SST anomalies in the experiments.The simulation results are consistent with the observations during the warm SST events,suggesting reasonable modeling results.（3）When negative SST anomalies in the TEP are put into the model,the results are different from those of the diagnostic analysis of La Nina events.Negative precipitation anomalies in YRBS could be reproduced only when the negative SST anomalies are strong enough.     

2003年和2006年梅汛期暴雨的梅雨锋特征分析

本文针对2003年和2006年梅汛期暴雨量集中在淮河流域而总雨量不同的特点,利用平均场的方法,较深入地研究了暴雨时梅雨锋的结构。研究得到:暴雨发生时有明显的梅雨锋区;暴雨量与锋区的强度成正比;暴雨区位于锋区中即在对流层中低层的高温高湿区的偏北区域中,也就是低空急流的北部;锋生函数的切变变形场与暴雨的落区重叠;经向锋生函数的正值区呈直柱状,与南风等风速线的密集区相重叠,纬向分布的锋生函数指示了暴雨区的范围。     

Density fronts in the vicinity of a long ridge

Laboratory experiments concerning the nature of density fronts in a two-layer fluid in the vicinity of a continuous ridge were conducted. The experiments were carried out in a circular rotating test cell containing an annular ridge of uniform cross-section. The density fronts were established by releasing a lighter fluid contained in a bottomless cylinder in the interior of the region defined by the topography into a heavier fluid occupying the rest of the test cell. The system was also equipped with an oscillating plunger located along the test cell axis to produce simulated tidal currents impinging in the normal direction on the ridge; experiments without and with tidal forcing were conducted. The governing parameters for the physical system considered are the Rossby, temporal Rossby, Burger and Ekman numbers and geometrical parameters. It is found that for both the non-forced and tidally forced experiments the fronts were stabilized by the ridge. The fronts in the simulated tidal currents experiments were found to advect radially outward more rapidly at early times than their non-forced counterparts; at large times, the temporal evolution of the front for these forced experiments approached that of the non-forced experiments. In the region interior to the annular ridge, the motion field is highly baroclinic, while outside this region, the flow response at the forcing frequency is barotropic. Scaling arguments regarding frontal position, viscous decay and barotropic oscillatory flow responses are advanced and supported by experimental observations.     

Frontal contraction processes leading to the formation of an intense narrow rainband

Summary Processes which played an important role in the sudden development of an intense narrow cold frontal rainband (NCFR) along the leading edge of a wintertime anafront are investigated. Quantitative analysis of the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) initialization and Nested Grid Model (NGM) forecast fields, satellite-derived water vapor and ozone measurements, and conventional meteorological data are employed in this study.The NCFR developed upon merger of an arctic front with a nearly stationary cold front over the Appalachian mountains. Rapid intensification of an ageostrophic momentum surge associated with the formation of a sub-synoptic played a dominant role in forcing explosive frontogenesis during frontal merger. A deep tropopause fold and related mid-tropospheric subsidence feature within the entrance region of an upper-level jet crossed the mountains at the time of NCFR formation. Synthesis of the surface, NGM, and satellite data suggests that this subsidence resulted in the development of the sub-synoptic high pressure system, whose leading edge was marked by a 5mb pressure jump. Consequential amplifieation and scale contraction of the cross-front pressure gradient indicates that the scale of the merged frontal system contracted just prior to NCFR development.As precipitation developed, the pressure jump took on a microscale character and increased to 8mb amplitude. The subsequent intensity of this frontal rainband is explained by the interaction between vertical shear associated with a strong, pre-frontal, low-level jet and the gravity current-like structure at the leading edge of the merged cold front.With 22 Figures     

东亚夏季风监测诊断业务系统

介绍了国家气候中心重要的业务系统之一,东亚夏季风监测诊断业务系统。该系统利用实时接收的大气资料、卫星观测的长波辐射资料和中国大陆地区的台站降水资料,对东亚夏季风的活动情况(包括夏季风爆发、推进、强度等)和我国大陆地区雨带位置及降水异常状况进行实时监测,能提供多种监测产品,并发布《东亚季风监测简报》。