新疆南部干旱区暴雨研究：科学认知与主要进展*

新疆南部(简称南疆)是典型的干旱区,地形和下垫面复杂,生态环境脆弱,对气候变化异常敏感。在全球变暖背景下,近年来南疆暴雨发生频率和强度明显增加,引起社会广泛关注。本文主要回顾了南疆干旱区暴雨的科学认知、研究进程和最新研究进展,南疆暴雨具有降水集中度高、相对强度大、极端性强、空间分布不均匀等特点。南疆暴雨研究经过了从大降水个例到多尺度相互作用机理和数值模拟发展应用的阶段,目前在南疆暴雨的重要影响天气系统和水汽输送等方面取得新的科学认识。最后,对干旱区暴雨科学研究的未来发展方向进行了简要的讨论和展望,以期承上启下,为未来新时期南疆暴雨研究提供创新基础。

The major advances and development process of the heavy rainfalls in South Xinjiang, China

Storm water research is a focal point and a difficult issue in global atmospheric science research. Research on heavy rainfall for the East Asian monsoon region has made significant progress, but less attention and research results have been devoted to heavy rainfall in arid regions. Southern Xinjiang (referred to as South Xinjiang) is a typical arid zone with complex topography and substratum, fragile ecological environment, and exceptionally sensitive to climate change. In the context of global warming, the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall in South Xinjiang has increased significantly in recent years, causing damage to socio-economic and infrastructural facilities, etc., and causing widespread concern in society. This paper mainly reviews the scientific knowledge, historical process of research and the latest research progress of heavy rainfall in the arid zone of South Xinjiang, which is characterised by high concentration of precipitation, high relative intensity of heavy rainfall, strong extremes and uneven spatial distribution. The research on heavy rainfall in South Xinjiang has gone through a phase from individual cases of heavy precipitation to the development and application of multi-scale interaction mechanisms and numerical simulations, and new scientific understanding has now been achieved in the important influencing weather systems and water vapour transport of heavy rainfall in South Xinjiang. Finally, a brief discussion and outlook on the future direction of scientific research on rainstorms in arid zones is presented, with a view to carrying forward and providing an innovative basis for future research on rainstorms in southern Xinjiang in the new era. It is worth mentioning that many of the ideas proposed by a group of front-line weather forecasters in Xinjiang in the mid-to-late 20th century are still in use today and have been confirmed by more real measurements, remote sensing data and model simulations, reflecting the important position of front-line weather forecasters in the meteorological science and technology innovation system. Therefore, front-line weather forecasters need to be valued and guided to carry out weather science and technology innovation work in conjunction with operational needs.