气象导航

大小船舶在茫茫的海洋上航行，但时刻会受到天气的影响。因此，怎样避害趋利，充分利用气象条件，求取更佳的航运效益，就是开展气象导航技术研究和应用之目的。气象导航以天气预报和海况预报为基础，以船舶的不同运动性能为依据，利用计算机确定出安全、经济的最佳航线，并进行跟踪服务。其核心就是全球气象情报的占有量、及时性以及气象预报和航线选择的准确性。当前，根据实施情况又可分为岸上导航和船舶自我导航两种。前者通过先进的高速大容量计算机和全球通讯网络，对气象、海洋、船舶等系列资料进行综合运算分析，选出一条最佳航线，…     

全球气象和船舶航行跟踪技术研究

介绍了在计算机幕上，把船舶航线迭置在气象、海况环境场上，对船舶航行进行动态跟踪的技术。     

北太平洋冬季船舶西行航线的对比分析

文章根据船舶气象导航的原理、气象航线的设计技术以及影响航线选择的因素，通过对北太平洋冬季气候、洋流、天气形势的分析，指出了加－中高纬度航线在其经向型环流天气形势下，比中纬度航线更有利于西行船舶航行。船舶应结合自身性能及天气形势分析，尽量选择高纬度航线，以达到安全和经济的目的     

船舶自动气象站分类标准及仪器布设原则

本文在研究分析各类船舶的基础上,对船舶自动气象站(船舶站)的基本构成和采集要素进行了分类,提出了船舶站构成的分类标准,解决了不同船舶选取安装不同要素自动站选择依据不足的问题,详述了船舶站的构成。以典型船舶站为例,详述了温、压、湿、风、降水、能见度、辐射等观测要素的安装位置选择,为船舶站的设计和安装提供参考依据。     

北太平洋冬季阻塞性高压对船舶西行航线的影响*

通过对近10年北太平洋冬季阻塞性高压的建立、维持及崩溃的天气形势分析，结合船舶气象导航的原理、气象航线的设计以及影响航线选择的因素，指出了有利于北太平洋冬季西行高纬度航线的阻塞高压形式，为船舶西行选择高纬度航线提供了气象理论依据。     

船舶规避热带气旋初探

文章介绍了中央气象台海洋气象导航中心在对海洋船舶开展气象导航服务吲导船舶规避热带气旋的经验和技术措施。     

船舶雷电防护技术研究

为了能够科学合理地为大型复杂的船体进行雷电防护设计,文章依据雷电形成的过程及特点,分析总结船舶遭受雷电危害可能存在两方面的原因：一种是船舶直接接闪雷电流;另一方面是雷电没有直接击中船舶,而是雷击电磁脉冲对船舶造成的间接影响。最后文章从船舶本身的特殊性出发,提出安装接闪器、引下线和泄流装置的方法防止雷电对船舶造成的直接危害,提出采取等电位连接、屏蔽、接地和安装电涌保护器的方法减少船舶遭受雷电的间接影响,并考虑船舶所处工作大环境提出防护建议。只有合理地采用各种防护措施才能最大限度地避免船舶遭受雷电干扰。     

船舶气象导航随船验证

通过横流太平洋往返两个航次随船调查，研究了采用气象导航对减少燃油消耗和保证船舶安全、班期等，不但有定的经济效益，而且是一种非常有效的航运管理方法。     

船舶雷电防护研究

为了能够更加科学合理地为大型复杂的船体进行雷电防护设计,文章介绍雷电形成的过程及特点,分析总结船舶遭受雷电危害可能存在两方面的原因：一种是船舶直接接闪雷电流;另一方面是雷电没有直接击中船舶,而是雷电产生的电磁脉冲对船舶造成的间接影响。最后文章从船舶本身的特殊性出发,提出安装接闪器、引下线和泄流装置的方法防止雷电对船舶造成的直接危害,提出采取等电位连接、屏蔽、接地和安装浪涌保护器的方法减少船舶遭受雷电的间接影响。只有合理地采用各种防护措施才能最大限度地避免船舶遭受雷电干扰。     

淳安杨梅岛"6·23" 雷击事件的调查分析

目前,对于船舶及船上人员的雷电防护措施极其缺乏,国家相关规范也没有明确的规定和指导,安全隐患极大.本文通过对一起船舶雷击事件的调查,从地理环境、天气情况和船只结构等方面,分析此次雷击事件的成因,并提出了一些船舶雷电防护措施.     

长江航运气象预报预警服务系统设计与应用

为面向长江航运开展可视化气象保障服务,本文设计了天气通航等级来表征天气对航运的影响,给出了应用沿江气象实况监测、网格预报、服务预警信息,计算航运调度管理和船舶行程规划两种服务场景下天气通航等级的具体算法和应用天气通航等级开展智能航运气象服务的方法,介绍了基于天气通航等级的长江航运气象预报预警服务系统的总体设计、主要产品、系统功能和主要特点,并结合航运气象服务发展,探讨了系统未来的改进方向。     

Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012

Declining sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic has gained significant attention with respect to the prospect of increased shipping activities. To investigate relationships between recent declines in sea ice area with Arctic maritime activity, trend and correlation analysis was performed on sea ice area data for total, first-year ice (FYI), and multi-year ice (MYI), and on a comprehensive shipping dataset of observed vessel transits through the Vessel Traffic Reporting Arctic Canada Traffic Zone (NORDREG zone) from 1990 to 2012. Links to surface air temperature (SAT) and the satellite derived melt season length were also investigated. Between 1990 and 2012, statistically significant increases in vessel traffic were observed within the NORDREG zone on monthly and annual time-scales coincident with declines in sea ice area (FYI, MYI, and total ice) during the shipping season and on a monthly basis. Similarly, the NORDREG zone is experiencing increased shoulder season shipping activity, alongside an increasing melt season length and warming surface air temperatures (SAT). Despite these trends, only weak correlations between the variables were identified, although a step increase in shipping activity is apparent following the former summer sea ice extent minimum in 2007. Other non-environmental factors have also likely contributed to the observed increase in Arctic shipping activity within the Canadian Arctic, such as tourism demand, community re-supply needs, and resource exploration trends.     

Orchestrating transnational environmental governance in maritime shipping

Maritime shipping is the transmission belt of the global economy. It is also a major contributor to global environmental change through its under-regulated air, water and land impacts. It is puzzling that shipping is a lagging sector as it has a well-established global regulatory body—the International Maritime Organization. Drawing on original empirical evidence and archival data, we introduce a four-factor framework to investigate two main questions: why is shipping lagging in its environmental governance; and what is the potential for the International Maritime Organization to orchestrate emerging private ‘green shipping’ initiatives to achieve better ecological outcomes? Contributing to transnational governance theory, we find that conditions stalling regulatory progress include low environmental issue visibility, poor interest alignment, a broadening scope of environmental issues, and growing regulatory fragmentation and uncertainty. The paper concludes with pragmatic recommendations for the International Maritime Organization to acknowledge the regulatory difficulties and seize the opportunity to orchestrate environmental progress.     

Climatic change and great lakes levels the impact on shipping

This paper represents an attempt to combine the output of several models that deal with future climatic, hydrologic and economic conditions in the Great Lakes and makes some predictions about the possible impact of one scenario of 2 × CO₂ climate on Great Lakes shipping. It is realized that there is a great deal of uncertainty in all the models and that improvements are continually being made. Data from a General Circulation Model of future temperature and precipitation in the Great Lakes basin, a Great Lakes levels and flows model from the Canada Centre for Inland Waters and an International Joint Commision's Great Lakes economic model modified by the University of Wisconsin were used. The 1900–1976 period of lake levels and flows was used. The hydrologic model indicated that future mean lake levels may be reduced by one-half meter, and that the extreme low levels of the mid 1960's could occur 77% of the time in the future. No ice cover is predicted for any lake except Erie, permitting an eleven month shipping season. Five scenarios of future impact on shipping were evaluated. It was found that mean annual shipping costs may increase by 30% and the frequency of years when costs exceed those of the period of low lake levels (1963–65) could rise to 97%. Possible policy options in a future with climatically induced lower lake levels could include regulation to keep levels artificially high by diversions into the system, or increased dredging of the connecting channels.     

海平面上升对长江三角洲海堤、航运和水资源的影响

分析了２０５０ 年长江三角洲地区相对海平面上升５０～７０ ｃｍ 时,将对该地区沿海海堤、航运及海岸带水资源的影响,并就相应的适应对策提出了建议。     

CO2 abatement goals for international shipping

The Paris Agreement, which entered into force in 2016, sets the ambitious climate change mitigation goal of limiting the global temperature increase to below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. This puts a severe constraint on the remaining global GHG emissions budget. While international shipping is also a contributor to anthropogenic GHG emissions, and CO₂ in particular, it is not included in the Paris Agreement. This article discusses how a share of a global CO₂ budget over the twenty-first century could be apportioned to international shipping, and, using a range of future trade scenarios, explores the requisite cuts to the CO₂ intensity of shipping. The results demonstrate that, under a wide range of assumptions, existing short-term levers of efficiency must be urgently exploited to achieve mitigation commensurate with that required from the rest of the economy, with virtually full decarbonization of international shipping required as early as before mid-century.

Key policy insights

• Regulatory action is key to ensuring the international shipping sector’s long-term sustainability.

• For the shipping industry to deliver mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement, virtually full decarbonization needs to be achieved.

• In the near term, immediate and rapid exploitation of available mitigation measures is of critical importance.

• Any delay in the transition will increase the risk of stranded assets, or diminish the chances of meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature commitments.

     

全球气候治理背景下的船舶营运能效评级方法

为共同应对全球气候变化,国际海事组织（IMO）计划制定一套强制性船舶营运能效（碳排放强度）国际机制,与现有强制性船舶设计能效机制互为补充。然而,由于受诸多因素影响,船舶营运能效具有较大的随机性和不确定性,为相关国际机制的构建带来巨大挑战。文中通过构建带有年份虚拟变量的碳强度分位数回归模型,实现了对不同时期海运船队碳排放强度特征的量化,包括总体分布的位置、尺度与偏态。在此基础上,提出了以国际海运船队碳排放强度目标为导向的船舶营运能效评级机制。实证分析表明,该评级机制能够引导国际海运业作为一个整体共同实现碳强度目标,同时对船舶个体营运能效表现的波动具有鲁棒性,为科学评价船舶营运能效水平提供了系统性解决方案。     

All adrift: aviation,shipping, and climate change policy

All sectors face decarbonization for a 2 °C temperature increase to be avoided. Nevertheless, meaningful policy measures that address rising CO₂ from international aviation and shipping remain woefully inadequate. Treated with a similar approach within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), they are often debated as if facing comparable challenges, and even influence each others’ mitigation policies. Yet their strengths and weaknesses have important distinctions. This article sheds light on these differences so that they can be built upon to improve the quality of debate and ensuing policy development. The article quantifies ‘2 °C’ pathways for these sectors, highlighting the need for mitigation measures to be urgently accelerated. It reviews recent developments, drawing attention to one example where a change in aviation mitigation policy had a direct impact on measures to cut CO₂ from shipping. Finally, the article contrasts opportunities and barriers towards mitigation. The article concludes that there is a portfolio of opportunities for short- to medium-term decarbonization for shipping, but its complexity is its greatest barrier to change. In contrast, the more simply structured aviation sector is pinning too much hope on emissions trading to deliver CO₂ cuts in line with 2 °C. Instead, the solution remains controversial and unpopular – avoiding 2 °C requires demand management.

Policy relevance

The governance arrangements around the CO₂ produced by international aviation and shipping are different from other sectors because their emissions are released in international airspace and waters. Instead, through the Kyoto Protocol, the International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) were charged with developing policies towards mitigating their emissions. Slow progress to date, coupled with strong connections with rapidly growing economies, has led to the CO₂ from international transport growing at a higher rate than the average rate from all other sectors. This article considers this rapid growth, and the potential for future CO₂ growth in the context of avoiding a 2 °C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. It explores similarities and differences between these two sectors, highlighting that a reliance on global market-based measures to deliver required CO₂ cuts will likely leave both at odds with the overarching climate goal.     

深度学习方法在北极海冰预报中的应用

在全球气候变暖背景下,北极海冰呈现出逐年消融的趋势.海冰的消融给北极的开发利用带来了重要机遇,例如北极航道通航潜力的显现.但北极航道开通还面临着诸多困难,尤其是海冰变化机理的复杂性和海冰预报的不确定性以及由此带来的航行安全风险.近年来,深度学习因其强大的非线性拟合能力,逐渐在海冰预报领域中崭露头角.本文对近年来深度学习...     

Effective wind stress over the great lakes derived from long‐term numerical model simulations

Numerical models were used to compute water circulations throughout the 1970 shipping season for Lake Erie and for the 1972 International Field Year on Lake Ontario. Simultaneous computations of surface elevations were compared with observed water levels to adjust the model results after the fact. As a by‐product of these simultations, effective stress coefficients over water can be estimated. The results support earlier evidence that the effective wind stress over water is larger than indicated by atmospheric boundary layer measurements.