Transposed Climates for Study of Water Supply Variability on the Laurentian Great Lakes

Hydrological models of the Great Lakes basin were used to study the sensitivity of Great Lakes water supplies to climate warming by driving them with meteorological data from four U.S. climate zones that were transposed to the basin. Widely different existing climates were selected for transposition in order to identify thresholds of change where major impacts on water supplies begin to occur and whether there are non-linear responses in the system. The climate zones each consist of 43 years of daily temperature and precipitation data for 1,000 or more stations and daily evaporation-related variables (temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud cover) for approximately 20–35 stations. A key characteristic of these selected climates was much larger variability in inter-annual precipitation than currently experienced over the Great Lakes. Climate data were adjusted to simulate lake effects; however, a comparison of hydrologic results with and without lake effects showed that there was only minor effects on water supplies.     

Changes in climate and levels of lake Michigan: shoreline impacts at Chicago

This study concerns effects along the Illinois shoreline resulting from the record-low levels of Lake Michigan during 1964–65, and the potential impacts of future low water levels at Chicago resulting from potential climate changes. The low lake levels of the 1960s did not cause major impacts at Chicago when they occurred. The two major impacts discerned (damage to shoreline protection structures and the encroachment of structures onto areas too close to the lake) resulted from a sequence of low-water levels followed by high-water levels a few years later. Climate scenarios, derived from general circulation models (GCMs) and extreme historical precipitation values, were used in a basin hydrologic model to determine potential future lake levels. Possible impacts were then estimated by 29 lakeshore experts. If the average lake level were reduced 1.0 m during the next 50 yr, shoreline impacts would not be severe and cost about $ 100 million. Many of the adjustment costs could be offset by normal maintenance and replacement costs. If the average lake level was reduced more than 1.5 m during the next 50 yr, very sizable economic impacts would occur, costing between $3 and $35 billion (1988 dollars). Some of the adjustment cost could be offset by normal replacement costs, particularly if a master plan for changing affected facilities were implemented in advance. The type of climate change and degree of lakelevel change will greatly affect the severity of the effects at Chicago.     

Recent Trends In Laurentian Great Lakes Ice Cover

A 39-winter (1963–2001) record of annual maximum ice concentration (AMIC), the maximum fraction of lake surface area covered by ice each year, is analyzed for each Great Lake. Lake Erie has the largest median AMIC (94%) followed by Lakes Superior (80%), Huron(63%), Michigan (33%), and Ontario (21%). The frequency distributionof AMICs is negatively skewed for Lakes Superior and Erie and positively skewed for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Temporal and spatial patterns of typical and extreme AMICs is presented within the context of long-term average air temperatures and lake bathymetry. The variation of spatially averaged ice concentration with discrete depth ranges are discussed for each lake for the upper and lower end of the typical range of AMIC values. In general, ice concentration decreases with increasing depth ranges for a given winter. A decrease in the gradient of ice concentration with depths was also observed with an increase in the AMIC from winter 1983 to winter 1984. A temporal trend in the AMICs supports the hypothesis of three ice cover regimes over the past 39 winters. Approximately 44% of the highest quartile (10 highest) AMICs for the Great Lakes occurred during the 6-winter period:1977–1982 providing evidence of a higher ice cover regime during thisperiod relative to the 14 winters before them (1963–1976) and the 19 winters after them (1983–2001). Winter 1998 established new low AMIC extremes,and the AMIC averaged over the 1998–2001 winters is the lowest for theperiod of record on four of the five Great Lakes. These recent trends taken together are noteworthy as they may be harbingers of a period of even lower AMICs in the 21st Century.     

A numerical investigation of wind speed effects on lake-effect storms

Observations of lake-effect storms that occur over the Great Lakes region during late autumn and winter indicate a high sensitivity to ambient wind speed and direction. In this paper, a two-dimensional version of the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) model is used to investigate the wind speed effects on lake-effect snowstorms that occur over the Great Lakes region.Theoretical initial conditions for stability, relative humidity, wind velocity, and lake/land temperature distribution are specified. Nine different experiments are performed using wind speeds ofU=0, 2, 4,..., 16 m s^–1. The perturbation wind, temperature, and moisture fields for each experiment after 36 h of simulation are compared.It is determined that moderate (4–6 m s^–1) wind speeds result in maximum precipitation (snowfall) on the lee shore of the model lake. Weak wind speeds (0U<4 m s^–1) yield significantly higher snowfall amounts over the lake along with a spatially concentrated and intense response. Strong wind speeds (6<U16 m s^–1), yield very little, if any, significant snowfall, although significant increases in cloudiness, temperature, and perturbation wind speed occur hundreds of kilometers downwind from the lake.     

Paleo-reconstructed net basin supply scenarios and their effect on lake levels in the upper great lakes

Paleo-reconstructed hydrologic records offer the potential to evaluate water resources system performance under conditions that may be more extreme than seen in the historical record. This study uses a stochastic simulation framework consisting of a non-homogeneous Markov chain model (NHMM) to simulate the climate state using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)-reconstructed data, and K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) to resample observational net basin supply magnitudes for the Great Lakes of North America. The method was applied to generate 500 plausible simulations, each with 100 years of monthly net basin supply for the Upper Great Lakes, to place the observed data into a longer temporal context. The range of net basin supply sequences represents what may have occurred in the past 1,000 years and which can occur in future. The approach was used in evaluation of operational plans for regulation of Lake Superior outflows with implications for lake levels of Superior, Michigan, Huron and Erie, and their interconnecting rivers. The simulations generally preserved the statistics of the observed record while providing new variability statistics. The framework produced a variety of high and low net basin supply sequences that provide a broader estimate of the likelihood of extreme lake levels and their persistence than with the historical record. The method does not rely on parametrically generated net basin supply values unlike parametric stochastic simulation techniques, yet still generates new variability through the incorporation of the paleo-record. The process described here generated new scenarios that are plausible based on the paleo and historic record. The evaluation of Upper Great Lakes regulation plans, subject to these scenarios, was used to evaluate robustness of the regulation plans. While the uncertain future climate cannot be predicted, one can evaluate system performance on a wide range of plausible climate scenarios.     

Impacts of CO2-induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes Basin

Scenarios of CO₂-induced climatic change, based on models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), were used to estimate future changes in water supply in the Great Lakes Basin. The major components of annual Net Basin Supply, surface runoff and lake evaporation, were estimated using the Thornthwaite water balance model and the mass transfer approach, respectively. Two scenarios were derived from each climatic change model, one based on present normal winds, the other assuming reduced wind speeds. A third scenario was derived from GFDL, using wind speeds generated by the GFDL model. Results varied from a decrease in Net Basin Supply of 28.9% for GISS-normal winds, to a decrease of 11.7% for GFDL-reduced wind speeds. All five scenarios projected decreases. These differences in projection will have to be considered when performing climate impact studies, since economic activities affected by lake levels would probably experience different impacts under these scenarios.     

Changes in Soybean Yields in the Midwestern United States as a Result of Future Changes in Climate, Climate Variability, and CO2 Fertilization

This modeling study addresses the potential impacts of climate change and changing climate variability due to increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration on soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) yields in theMidwestern Great Lakes Region. Nine representative farm locations and six future climate scenarios were analyzed using the crop growth model SOYGRO. Under the future climate scenarios earlierplanting dates produced soybean yield increases of up to 120% above current levels in the central and northern areas of the study region. In the southern areas, comparatively small increases (0.1 to 20%) and small decreases (–0.1 to–25%) in yield are found. The decreases in yield occurred under the Hadley Center greenhouse gas run (HadCM2-GHG), representing a greater warming, and the doubled climate variability scenario – a more extreme and variableclimate. Optimum planting dates become later in the southern regions. CO₂fertilization effects (555 ppmv) are found to be significant for soybean, increasing yields around 20% under future climate scenarios.For the study region as a whole the climate changes modeled in this research would have an overall beneficial effect, with mean soybean yield increases of 40% over current levels.     

Laurentian Great Lakes double-CO2 climate change hydrological impacts

The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory has developed conceptual daily models for simulating moisture storages in and runoff from the 121 watersheds draining into the Laurentian Great Lakes, over-lake precipitation into each lake, and the heat storages in and evaporation from each lake. We combine these components as net basin supplies for each lake to consider climate change scenarios developed from atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). Recent scenarios of a doubling of atmospheric Co₂, available from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Oregon State University are considered by making changes in historical meteorological data similar to the changes observed in the GCMs, observing the impact of the changed data in the model outputs, and comparing outputs to model results using unchanged data, representing comparison to an unchanged atmosphere. This study indicates a 23 to 51% reduction in net basin supplies to all the Great Lakes; there is significant variation in the components of these supplies among the three GCMs. The basins various moisture storages become dryer and the lakes are warmer with associated hydrological impacts.GLERL Contribution NO. 646.     

On the simulation of Laurentian Great Lakes water levels under projections of global climate change

A new method is proposed to estimate future net basin supplies and lake levels for the Laurentian Great Lakes based on GCM projections of global climate change. The method first dynamically downscales the GCM simulation with a regional climate model, and then bias—corrects the simulated net basin supply in order to be used directly in a river—routing/lake level scheme. This technique addresses two weaknesses in the traditional approach, whereby observed sequences of climate variables are perturbed with fixed ratios or differences derived directly from GCMs in order to run evaporation and runoff models. Specifically, (1) land surface—atmosphere feedback processes are represented, and (2) changes in variability can be analyzed with the new approach. The method is demonstrated with a single, high resolution simulation, where small changes in future mean lake levels for all the upper Great Lakes are found, and an increase in seasonal range—especially for Lake Superior—is indicated. Analysis of a small ensemble of eight lower resolution regional climate model simulations supports these findings. In addition, a direct comparison with the traditional approach based on the same GCM projections used as the driving simulations in this ensemble shows that the new method indicates smaller declines in level for all the upper Great Lakes than has been reported previously based on the traditional method, though median differences are only a few centimetres in each case.     

Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective

The North American Laurentian Great Lakes hold nearly 20 % of the earth’s unfrozen fresh surface water and have a length of coastline, and a coastal population, comparable to frequently-studied marine coasts. The surface water elevations of the Great Lakes, in particular, are an ideal metric for understanding impacts of climate change on large hydrologic systems, and for assessing adaption measures for absorbing those impacts. In light of the importance of the Great Lakes to the North American and global economies, the Great Lakes and the surrounding region also serve as an important benchmark for hydroclimate research, and offer an example of successful adaptive management under changing climate conditions. Here, we communicate some of the important lessons to be learned from the Great Lakes by examining how the coastline, water level, and water budget dynamics of the Great Lakes relate to other large coastal systems, along with implications for water resource management strategies and climate scenario-derived projections of future conditions. This improved understanding fills a critical gap in freshwater and marine global coastal research.     

A model for computing small-scale wind variations over a water surface

Based on the primitive equations, a one-level model is described for computing surface winds under the meso-scale influences of orography, friction and heating. The effects of atmospheric stability and land-water contrasts are examined in detail. Results of testing the model with data collected during the International Field Year for the Great Lakes (IFYGL) in 1972 are given. The model is able to simulate land and lake breezes as well as meso-scale effects due to gradients in surface water temperature. Compared to simple methods of computing surface winds, use of the model reduces the vector error in estimates of surface winds by about 1.25 m s^–1 on the average.     

The Great Lakes diversion at Chicago and its implications for climate change

In 1900 the city of Chicago began diverting sizable amounts of water from Lake Michigan to move its sewage down the Illinois River. This diversion launched a series of continuing legal controversies involving Illinois as a defendant against claims by the federal government, various lake states, and Canada who wanted the diversion stopped or drastically reduced. During the past 96 years extended dry periods have lowered the lake levels. Using these dry periods as surrogates for future conditions, their effects on the past controversies were examined as analogs for what might occur as a result of climate change from an enhanced Greenhouse effect. The results reveal that changing socioeconomic factors including population growth will likely cause increased water use, and Chicago will seek additional water from the Great Lakes. New priorities for water use will emerge as in the past. Drier future conditions will likely lead to enhanced diversions from the Great Lakes to serve interests in and outside the basin. Future lower lake levels (reflecting a drier climate) will lead to conflicts related to existing and proposed diversions, and these conflicts would be exacerbated by the consequences of global warming. In any event, a warmer, drier climatic regime will challenge existing laws and institutions for dealing with Great Lakes water issues.     

Great Lakes Hydrology Under Transposed Climates

Historical climates, based on 43 years of daily data from areas south and southwest of the Great Lakes, were used to examine the hydrological response of the Great Lakes to warmer climates. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory used their conceptual models for simulating moisture storages in, and runoff from, the 121 watersheds draining into the Great Lakes, over-lake precipitation into each lake, and the heat storages in, and evaporation from, each lake. This transposition of actual climates incorporates natural changes in variability and timing within the existing climate; this is not true for General Circulation Model-generated corrections applied to existing historical data in many other impact studies. The transposed climates lead to higher and more variable over-land evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture and runoff with earlier runoff peaks since the snow pack is reduced up to 100%. Water temperatures increase and peak earlier. Heat resident in the deep lakes increases throughout the year. Buoyancy-driven water column turnover frequency drops and lake evaporation increases and spreads more throughout the annual cycle. The response of runoff to temperature and precipitation changes is coherent among the lakes and varies quasi-linearly over a wide range of temperature changes, some well beyond the range of current GCM predictions for doubled CO₂ conditions.     

Implications of CO2 global warming on great lakes ice cover

Statistical ice cover models were used to project daily mean basin ice cover and annual ice cover duration for Lakes Superior and Erie. Models were applied to a 1951–80 base period and to three 30-year steady double carbon dioxide (2 × CO₂) scenarios produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), and the Oregon State University (OSU) general circulation models. Ice cover estimates were made for the West, Central, and East Basins of Lake Erie and for the West, East, and Whitefish Bay Basins of Lake Superior. Average ice cover duration for the 1951– 80 base period ranged from 13 to 16 weeks for individual lake basins. Reductions in average ice cover duration under the three 2 × CO₂ scenarios for individual lake basins ranged from 5 to 12 weeks for the OSU scenario, 8 to 13 weeks for the GISS scenario, and 11 to 13 weeks for GFDL scenario. Winters without ice formation become common for Lake Superior under the GFDL scenario and under all three 2 × CO₂ scenarios for the Central and East Basins of Lake Erie. During an average 2 × CO₂ winter, ice cover would be limited to the shallow areas of Lakes Erie and Superior. Because of uncertainties in the ice cover models, the results given here represent only a first approximation and are likely to represent an upper limit of the extent and duration of ice cover under the climate change projected by the three 2 × CO₂scenarios. Notwithstanding these limitations, ice cover projected by the 2 × CO₂ scenarios provides a preliminary assessment of the potential sensitivity of the Great Lakes ice cover to global warming. Potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts of a 2 × CO₂ warming include year-round navigation, change in abundance of some fish species in the Great Lakes, discontinuation or reduction of winter recreational activities, and an increase in winter lake evaporation.     

Climate change impacts on Laurentian Great Lakes levels

Scenarios of water supplies reflecting CO₂-induced climatic change are used to determine potential impacts on levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes and likely water management policy implications. The water supplies are based on conceptual models that link climate change scenarios from general circulation models to estimates of basin runoff, overlake precipitation, and lake evaporation. The water supply components are used in conjunction with operational regulation plans and hydraulic routing models of outlet and connecting channel flows to estimate water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Three steady-state climate change scenarios, corresponding to modeling a doubling of atmospheric CO₂, are compared to a steady-state simulation obtained with historical data representing an unchanged atmosphere. One transient climate change scenario, representing a modeled transition from present conditions to doubled CO₂ concentrations, is compared to a transient simulation with historical data. The environmental, socioeconomic, and policy implications of the climate change effects modeled herein suggest that new paradigms in water management will be required to address the prospective increased allocation conflicts between users of the Great Lakes.GLERL Contribution No. 645.     

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydro-meteorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041–2070) and present (1971–1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.     

Regional hydrologic and carbon balance responses of forests resulting from potential climate change

The projected response of coniferous forests to a climatic change scenario of doubled atmospheric CO₂, air temperature of +4 °C, and +10% precipitation was studied using a computer simulation model of forest ecosystem processes. A topographically complex forested region of Montana was simulated to study regional climate change induced forest responses. In general, increases of 10–20% in LAI, and 20–30% in evapotranspiration (ET) and photosynthesis (PSN) were projected. Snowpack duration decreased by 19–69 days depending on location, and growing season length increased proportionally. However, hydrologic outflow, primarily fed by snowmelt in this region, was projected to decrease by as much as 30%, which could virtually dry up rivers and irrigation water in the future.To understand the simulated forest responses, and explore the extent to which these results might apply continentally, seasonal hydrologic partitioning between outflow and ET, PSN, respiration, and net primary production (NPP) were simulated for two contrasting climates of Jacksonville, Florida (hot, wet) and Missoula, Montana (cold, dry). Three forest responses were studied sequentially from; climate change alone, addition of CO₂ induced tree physiological responses of-30% stomatal conductance and +30% photosynthetic rates, and finally with a reequilibration of forest leaf area index (LAI), derived by a hydrologic equilibrium theory. NPP was projected to increase 88%, and ET 10%, in Missoula, MT, yet dcrease 5% and 16% respectively for Jacksonville, FL, emphasizing the contrasting forest responses possible with future climatic change.     

The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping

The higher temperatures of climate change may result in a fall in Great Lakes water levels. For vessels carrying imports into and exports out of the Great Lakes lower lake levels will lead to restrictions on vessel drafts and reductions in vessel cargos, increasing the number of trips and the cost of moving cargo. Estimates of these impacts are derived from simulations of a recent year??s international cargo movements, comparing a base case with no climate change to various climate change scenarios. The impacts vary from a 5% increase in vessel variable operating costs for a climate change scenario representing the possible climate in 2030 to over 22% for a scenario representing a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Impacts vary by commodity and route. For years of naturally occurring low water the impacts are up to 13% higher for even the most moderate climate change scenario. Climate change may also result in a shorter time of ice cover leading to an extension of the navigation season. Climate change is also expected to increase the threat of damage from aquatic invasive species, possibly leading to further requirements for ships to undertake preventive measures.     

Stable isotope (O and C) and pollen trends in eastern Lake Erie,evidence for a locally-induced climatic reversal of Younger Dryas age in the Great Lakes basin

A cool period from about 11000 to 10 500 BP (11 to 10.5 ka) is recognized in pollen records from the southern Great Lakes area by the return of Picea and Abies dominance and by the persistence of herbs. The area of cooling appears centred on the Upper Great Lakes. A high-resolution record (ca. 9 mm/y) from a borehole in eastern Lake Erie reveals, in the same time interval, this pollen anomaly, isotope evidence of meltwater presence (a — 3 per mil shift in ¹⁸O and a +1.1 per mil shift in ¹³C), increased sand, and reduced detrital calcite content, all suggesting concurrent cooling of Lake Erie. The onset of cooling is mainly attributed to the effect of enhanced meltwater inflow on the relatively large upstream Main Lake Algonquin during the first eastward discharge of glacial Lake Agassiz. Termination of the cooling coincides with drainage of Lake Algonquin, and is attributed to loss of its cooling effectiveness associated with a substantial reduction in its surface area. It is hypothesized that the cold extra inflow effectively prolonged the seasonal presence of lake ice and the period of spring overturn in Lake Algonquin. The deep mixing would have greatly increased the thermal conductive capacity of this extensive lake, causing suppression of summer surface lakewater temperatures and reduction of onshore growing-degree days. Alternatively, a rapid flow of meltwater, buoyed on sediment-charged (denser) lakewater, may have kept the lake surface cold in summer. Other factors such as wind-shifted pollen deposition and possible effects from the Younger Dryas North Atlantic cooling could have contributed to the Great Lakes climatic reversal, but further studies are needed to resolve their relative significance.Contribution to Climo Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate ProgramGeological Survey of Canada Contribution 58 890     

Application of the Canadian regional climate model to the Laurentian great lakes region: Implementation of a lake model

Abstract

This study reports on the implementation of an interactive mixed‐layer/thermodynamic‐ice lake model coupled with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). For this application the CRCM, which uses a grid mesh of 45 km on a polar stereographic projection, 10 vertical levels, and a timestep of 15 min, is nested with the second generation Canadian General Circulation Model (GCM) simulated output. A numerical simulation of the climate of eastern North America, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, is then performed in order to evaluate the coupled model. The lakes are represented by a “mixed layer” model to simulate the evolution of the surface water temperature, and a thermodynamic ice model to simulate evolution of the ice cover. The mixed‐layer depth is allowed to vary spatially. Lake‐ice leads are parametrized as a function of ice thickness based on observations. Results from a 5‐year integration show that the coupled CRCM/lake model is capable of simulating the seasonal evolution of surface temperature and ice cover in the Great Lakes. When compared with lake climatology, the simulated mean surface water temperature agrees within 0.12°C on average. The seasonal evolution of the lake‐ice cover is realistic but the model tends to underestimate the monthly mean ice concentration on average. The simulated winter lake‐induced precipitation is also shown, and snow accumulation patterns on downwind shores of the lakes are found to be realistic when compared with observations.