植冠层结构对其湍流场影响的数值试验

根据湍流应力模式的模拟结果，讨论了植被冠层中湍流能量的平衡特征，并通过数值试验就冠层结构对流场结构的影响进行了分析。     

一方程模型在植被冠层中的应用

利用建立的一方程模式对植被气象场和湍流场进行了模拟计算。结果表明：在植被叶面积密度最大值处，由植被叶面积产生的阻力使风速急剧减小，而后平缓接近地面风速值。Reynolds应力从植被顶部向下剧烈减小，在Z／Hc值为0．4～0．6之间衰减迅速；冠层下部风速小且切变弱，湍流未能充分发展，因而动量输送甚微。由于在植被内部环境中存在着湍流通量的辐散或辐合的现象，湍流强度从植被底部开始由下至上逐渐增强，在冠层上方则基本保持不变。     

植物冠层动量交换特征的实验研究

使用湍流梯度测试资料，对植物冠层动量交换特征进行了详细研究，结果表明:森林冠层内惯性副区能谱曲线仍可用幂指数描述，但斜率比-2/3更负；森林冠层内湍流尺度有变小的趋势；森林上层的耗散系数比下层大；由植被吸收引起动量及动量通量随冠层深度增加而明显减小；冠层下层的动量通量和耗散系数分别与上层的量有好的正相关；森林冠层内耗散系数和动量通量随大气稳定度有明显变化。     

森林下垫面陆面物理过程及局地气候效应的数值模拟试验

文中基于大气边界层和植被冠层微气象学基本原理 ,建立了一个森林植被效应的陆面物理过程和二维大气边界层数值模式。并应用该模式进行了植被和土壤含水量等生物和生理过程在陆面过程和局地气候效应方面的数值模拟试验。所得数值模拟试验结果与实际情况相吻合。结果表明 ,应用该模式可获得植被温度、植被冠层内空气温度、地表温度日变化特征 ;森林下垫面大气边界层风速、位温、比湿、湍流交换系数的时空分布和日变化特征。该模式还可应用于不同下垫面 ,模拟陆面物理过程与大气边界层相互作用机制及其局地气候效应的研究 ,这将为气候模式与生物圈的耦合研究奠定一个良好的基础。     

植物冠层内物质交换特征的实验研究

使用湍流和SO2通量梯度测试资料，对植被冠层内物质交换特征进行了详细研究，揭示了一些有意义的结果: 植物的生物过程对物质的吸收作用非常明显； 在冠层内物质通量是随冠层深度加大而明显减小；对高的植被，上层沉积速度(Vgu)大于下层 (Vgd)； 冠层内的沉积速度(Vg) 表现出明显的日变化，冠层内物质的生物吸收作用与太阳总辐射量有直接联系；冠层的Vg与速度尺度V＊和平均风成正变关系；森林的Vg比麦地小；新的Vg理论公式能更好地预测重庆森林和麦地的结果。     

植冠层湍流的数值模拟

根据流体力学的基本原理，建立了能量单方程植冠层湍流模式。并用小麦和玉米两种作物的实例资料对模式进行了验证。     

松林冠层大气湍流结构观测研究

为了更好地了解大气与物质和能量交换，用二层三维超声风速温度仪测量了重庆市郊松林风速和温度脉动值。采样速率为每秒１次和１１次，数字量记录。计算了湍流动最通量和热通量的日变化，以及湍流风速的统计量和功率谱。结果表明，冠层上动量通量向下传输，而冠层内大多向上传输；冠层内湍流风速ｕ的三阶矩平均值大于零，ｗ的小于零；冠层上无因次湍流风速分量ｕ，ｗ标准差和无因次湍流动能耗散率与局地Ｍｏｎｉｎ－Ｏｂｕｋｈｏｖ长     

一个简单的陆面过程模式

本模式为针对大气环流模式所发展的一个简单的陆面过程模式，它包含:（1）地表温度计算，（2）冠层叶面贮水量和土壤湿度计算，（3）陆面与大气之间的水分和能量交换。对于表面温度和含水量的计算，采用的是联立求解计算方案，即耦合计算。植被冠层叶面的辐射特性和冠层形态对冠层中的辐射交换的影响得到有效和尽可能简单的模拟。另外，植被的气孔阻抗、表面与大气之间的水热交换通量和土壤中的水热输导作了较为细致的描写。利用此模式开展了对两个不同覆盖类型的陆面过程的模拟，模拟和观测的表面通量、温度和湿度较为相近。     

CLM4.5冠层截留方案的敏感性试验与改进

为探究陆气系统对于冠层截留过程敏的感性,研究基于NCAR CAM-CLM陆气耦合模式探讨了截留参数对于全球陆地蒸发、降水、径流及气温的可能影响,揭示了冠层截留与植被光合作用之间的潜在联系。通过GLEAMv3.0a陆面蒸散发数据评估了CLM4.5冠层截留方案,并指出该方案高估了低茎叶面积指数植被的冠层蒸发,而低估了高茎叶面积指数植被的冠层蒸发。在CLM4.5中引入冠层截留偏差校正方案则可在一定程度上提高了全球林区冠层蒸发和陆面蒸散发的模拟能力。     

陆面模拟中植被辐射传输参数化方案研究

在冠层二流辐射传输模式基础上新发展了一个描述太阳短波辐射在植被中传输的冠层四流辐射传输模式.冠层四流辐射传输模式是在大气辐射传输理论的基础上得到一组描述短波辐射在植被中传输过程的冠层辐射传输基本方程,引进大气中求解辐射传输方程的四流近似解法,并求得冠层四流辐射传输方程的解析解.方程中各项参量能够反映叶子或冠层特殊的几何和光学特征.冠层向上、向下辐射通量取决于冠层散射相函数、叶子在入射光方向投影面积、单个叶子反射率和透射率、叶面积指数以及直射光入射太阳高度角等.四流模式计算叶子水平倾角时对太阳短波辐射的反照率,与二流模式结果比较可以验证模式的理论推导和建模都是正确的:计算结果的比较,表明四流模式在水平叶角分布时计算的冠层反照率与二流模式结果一致,同时直射光从任何太阳高度角入射的冠层反照率结果也一致,从而证明发展的冠层四流辐射传输模式是成功的.模拟试验中将两种模型同时耦合到同一个陆面过程模式中进行比较试验,结果表明,冠层四流辐射传输模式能够得到更精确的植被反照率,从而使得陆面模式计算的地表吸收的净太阳辐射通量更接近于观测值.     

Comparative study of performance of different weather forecast models at specific sites in northwest Himalaya in India

Independent test results of four different weather forecast models [climatological, persistence, analogue, and regional mesoscale weather simulation (MM5) model] have been compared for four past winters (winter 2003–2004 to winter 2006–2007) for qualitative weather (snow day/no snow day) and quantitative categorical snowfall prediction at six different areas in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya) in India. Weather forecast guidance provided by the MM5 model at 10 km resolution was taken for the study. Test results of MM5 and the analogue model were compared for a limited number of days (with irregular gaps) due to lack of availability of MM5 weather forecast guidance for complete winter periods. Forecasts based on the persistence, climatological, and analogue models were compared for day 1 predictions only. Performance of the analogue model for qualitative weather prediction was found to be comparable to that of the MM5 model for day 1 prediction. However, for day 2 and day 3, performance of the MM5 model was found to be marginally better than that of the analogue model. Marginal difference in overall accuracy of the analogue and MM5 models was found for quantitative categorical snowfall prediction for day 3. The quantitative categorical snowfall forecast error of the MM5 model was found to be greater than that for the analogue model for all three days. Comparative study of the performance of the climatological, persistence, and analogue models showed that the analogue model performs better than the persistence and climatological models for day 1 predictions. The results of this study suggest that the analogue model shows some capability for weather prediction and, along with the MM5 model, could be a useful tool for weather forecasters. Comparative study of the performance of the MM5 model at high resolution (about 2–3 km) and the analogue model for complete winter period may provide some interesting and fruitful results.     

PMF和PCA/APCS模型对南京北郊大气VOCs源解析对比研究

利用PMF模型和PCA/APCS模型对南京北郊大气VOCs进行定性和定量的源解析,并对比了两种模型的结果。结果表明：PMF模型对不同VOCs种类的模拟效果差别较大,而PCA/APCS对不同VOCs种类的模拟效果相近;PMF模型解析的源个数多于PCA/APCS模型,两种模型结果的源性质方面存在很大相似性,但PCA/APCS模型未能区分汽油挥发和汽车尾气源;两种模型源解析出的植物排放源、工业生产源的贡献率较接近,而其他源的贡献率存在差异,PCA/APCS模型解析的溶剂使用源的贡献率高于PMF模型结果,PMF模型解析出的汽油挥发+汽车尾气源的贡献率高于PCA/APCS模型结果。     

SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED WATER SURFACE TEMPERATURE MODELING FOR THE GREAT LAKES

1　INTRODUCTIONA Growing concern over the potential effects of a possible change in the future climatecontinues to motivate research into cycles,variability,and trends in the temperatures of theGreat L akes.These temperatures have a major influence on the water balance of the GreatL akes watershed through evaporation and the forcing of atmospheric effects.Before a futuretemperature structure and cycle can be estimated,the present water temperature climatologymust be sucessfully simulated…     

Impact of ECMWF,NCEP, and NCMRWF global model analysis on the WRF model forecast over Indian Region

The global model analysis has significant impact on the mesoscale model forecast as global model provides initial condition (IC) and lateral boundary conditions (LBC) for the mesoscale model. With this objective, four operational global model analyses prepared from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) are used daily to generate IC and LBC of the mesoscale model during 13th December 2012 to 13th January 2013. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.4, broadly used for short-range weather forecast, is adopted in this study as mesoscale model. After initial comparison of global model analyses with Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, daily WRF model forecasts initialized from global model analyses are compared with in situ observations and AIRS profiles. Results demonstrated that forecasts initialized from the ECMWF analysis are closer to AIRS-retrieved profiles and in situ observations compared to other global model analyses. No major differences are occurred in the WRF model forecasts when initialized from the NCEP GDAS and GFS analyses, whereas these two analyses have different spatial resolutions and observations used for assimilation. Maximum RMSD is seen in the NCMRWF analysis-based experiments when compared with AIRS-retrieved profiles. The rainfall prediction is also improved when WRF model is initialized from the ECMWF analysis compared to the NCEP and NCMRWF analyses.     

多尺度大气数值预报的技术进展

随着计算机和计算理论的发展,数值模式正在向全球化、精细化发展,以适应多尺度、多目的应用的要求,从而模糊了大气环流模式和中尺度数值模式的界限,其主要手段就是改进模式动力框架、离散化手段、计算方法、物理过程的普适性。在实际应用中如何提高模式的多尺度计算性能则是问题关键。该文从模式球面坐标系、网格构造、离散化方法的动力特性、垂直坐标和地形处理以及对物理过程的要求出发,探讨分析多尺度大气数值模式的特点:全球/区域可选、非静力近似、具有良好的频散关系和详细的物理过程,垂直高度坐标和"剪切"地形对多尺度通用模式的改良十分重要。除上述特点外,模式所采用的计算方法也应该最大限度地描述大气动力过程特性,采用高性能计算方案有利于多尺度预报。结合当前多尺度预报的国际研究热点和开发前沿,探讨我国新一代多尺度数值预报系统GRAPES的进一步发展及改进方向。     

地面有效辐射气候学模型评估和参数优化

基于中国19个辐射站1993-2012年的地面辐射平衡资料和气象资料,分析评估了布朗特法、彭曼法、别尔良德法、FAO24法、FAO56-PM法、邓根云法和童宏良法7种参数化方案计算中国地面有效辐射的适用性;并以均方根误差最小为目标函数,利用步长加速法和多元回归法迭代求解最优参数,建立适合于中国的最优参数化逐日有效辐射估算方法。结果表明:参与评估的7种方案都不同程度低估了中国的有效辐射;从全中国总体误差水平看,童宏良法的平均绝对百分比误差和均方根误差小于其他6种方案,分别为27.0%和24.5 W/m2,估算效果较好;其次是彭曼法和邓根云法;FAO56-PM法精度较低,不适用于中国的有效辐射估算。针对单站来说,邓根云法在东部平原地区的精度最高,童宏良法由于考虑了海拔高度的订正,适用于西部高原地区。相关分析表明水汽压是影响有效辐射估算误差的最关键因素,因此根据水汽压的地理分布规律,分东部区和西部区建立分区方案。基于观测资料建立的全中国方案和分区方案的均方根误差分别为20.8和21.4 W/m2,精度均高于已有参与评估的7种方案;而且在绝大多数站点,分区方案的误差小于全中国方案,所以划分东部区和西部区进行有效辐射模型参数化很有必要。同时发现,分区方案在西部区明显优于邓根云法,在东部区明显优于童宏良法,因此推荐其作为中国有效辐射的计算方法。      

A simulation of Asian dust events in March 2010 by using the ADAM2 model

Asian dust events occurred in Asia during March 2010 were simulated using the Asian Dust Aerosol Model 2 (ADAM2). The performance of the model for simulations of surface dust concentrations and dust event occurrences was tested at several monitoring sites located in the dust source region and the downstream region of Korea. The observed and modeled dust event occurrences at each monitoring site were defined with the hourly observed and modeled dust concentrations that were used to evaluate the performance of the model by constructing a contingency table for the dust event occurrence. It was found that the model simulated quite well the starting and ending times of dust events with their peak dust concentrations for most dust events occurred both in the dust source region and the downstream region of Korea. However, the model failed to simulate a few dust events observed in both regions mainly due to the inaccurate simulations of the meteorological fields. Inaccurate simulations of wind speeds have caused for the model to simulate dust events poorly in the dust source region whereas poor simulations of precipitation of the fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) model have led to miss dust events in the downstream region of Korea. The contingency table made with the hourly data for the dust event occurrence made it possible to evaluate the ADAM2 model for the simulation of the dust event occurrence. It was found that the model has the probabilistic simulation capability for dust events of about 78% with the hit rate of more than 83% and the false alarm rate of about 27% for the dust events occurred during March in 2010. The probabilistic capability of the model could be much improved by improving the meteorological model (MM5 model).     

Simulation of three-dimensional wind flow over complex terrain in the atmospheric boundary layer

A three-dimensional model for wind prediction over rough terrain has been developed for practical use. It is a compromise between hydrodynamic and objective wind models. The proposed model includes: (1) a statistical model to predict the wind velocity and potential temperature at anemometer height at observing stations, (2) the drainage wind model expressed by Prandtl's analytic solution for the slope wind, (3) the Businger-Dyer surface-layer formulation which considers the surface energy budget and (4) the model for three-dimensional boundary-layer solutions to the stationary flow. In this model, mass consistency is guaranteed by using flow fields that satisfy the continuity equation. Model predictions show good agreement with the observations.     

一种粒子——烟团扩散模型的应用研究

本文运用随机游动模拟方法改进建立一种粒子—烟团模式，成功地模拟了对流边界层条件下污染物扩散，粒子—烟团模式的模拟结果与水槽试验的结果吻合较好。数值模拟试验结果表明粒子—烟团模式能在施放粒子数较少，从而运行时间很短的情况下，得到优于一般随机游动模式的模拟性能。用KNRC的资料对模式的模拟性能作一验证，表明模式也能很好地模拟实际大气中不同稳定度情况下的扩散。     

2006年12月至2007年2月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

针对2006年12月至2007年1月T213模式96小时中期数值预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式96小时预报性能做了对比分析。结果表明,T213、ECMWF、日本模式对亚洲中高纬度地区大尺度环流形势演变和重大调整过程均有较好的预报能力,因此对重大灾害性天气的预报有较好的指示意义。三种模式相比,ECMWF模式对西风指数、850hPa温度、南支槽东移的预报较为准确。