应对气候变化进入历史性新阶段

论述了现代气候变化科学对人类新型发展观的贡献,中国对“发展”的新觉悟与国际发展观的演进相会合,从战略层面提高了对应对气候变化的认识,有力推动了巴黎气候大会的成功。本文归纳了《巴黎协定》所确立的新气候机制的4个要点和会后国际气候谈判面临的5个需要及时深化研究的新问题。中国确立的关于应对气候变化和低碳发展的目标,对创新我国发展路径具有战略意义,本文论述了这些发展目标的科学性。“十三五”是绿色、低碳转型的关键期,提出了需要抓紧做好的5个方面的工作。强调低碳与改善大气质量有很强的协同性,应对气候变化的国内外两个大局是互相促进、互相支持的,做好国内的事是根本。     

全球变暖背景下的中国西部地区气候变化研究进展

全球变暖是19世纪80年代以来,地球的年平均气温和地表温度呈上升趋势的现象.在全球变暖的大背景下,我国的气候也发生了显著的变化.探讨全球变暖背景下中国西部地区的气温、降水、气候转型以及青藏高原对中国气候的影响等,对我国应对气候变化问题有着重要的意义.本文从气温、降水、气候转型以及青藏高原对中国气候的影响等方面概述了近年来中国西部地区气候变化的最新研究进展,并探讨了未来的研究方向.     

“全球变化及应对”重点专项项目在中国黄土沉积揭示中更新世气候转型方面取得重要进展

正在"全球变化及应对"重点专项的支持下,"亚洲风尘循环的过程、机制和环境效应"项目团队在中国黄土沉积揭示中更新世气候转型方面取得重要进展。中更新气候转型和10万年冰期旋回出现的关联机理,是长期困扰古气候研究的难题。该项目中中国科学院地球环境研究所孙有斌研     

国际气候治理中的公正转型议题：概念辨析与治理进展

国际气候治理中的公正转型议题涉及就业、关乎民生,是各国都很关注的政策领域之一,因此也被视为是支持应对气候变化的一种重要社会机制。近年来,国际社会积极推动建设气候治理公正转型制度体系,各国也在所制定的国家应对气候变化战略和规划中越来越多地提出与公正转型和就业相关的目标与措施。公正转型议题在国际气候治理进程中主流化的趋势给中国参与和引领全球气候治理带来了新的机遇与挑战。中国应加强关于该问题的基础性研究;在国内应对气候变化的行动中充分考虑该问题,保障受影响就业群体获得社会公正对待;总结具体实践经验;在政策领域协调上做好新的布局;积极参与《联合国气候变化框架公约》下公正转型治理体系的构建中。     

从地球系统的观点看气候突变

在地球的气候史中,经历了许多次气候突变事件。这些突变对地球表层系统的演变与进化产生了巨大影响。随着全球气候变暖的持续发展,人类赖以生存的气候环境正在经历重大变化。如何科学地理解和认识这些变化,尤其是气候突变。是人类寻求对策,应对气候变化,保护自己持续发展的科学基础。文中从地球系统的角度对气候突变的科学问题进行了探讨,认为对气候突变的研究不应仅局限于大气圈,而应该对地球系统的整体变化进行研究。     

拉尼娜与短期气候异常

气候是人类的生活环境要素之一,对人们的活动有重大影响。本世纪６０～７０年代,世界上陆续出现了许多气候异常现象,对一些国家和地区的农业和国民经济造成了严重的损失,其影响甚至波及整个国际社会。这使人们不得不重视和加强对气候变化原因的研究。人们很快发现了海...     

做好西藏应对气候变化规划工作的几点思考和建议

<正>全球气候变暖已经并将持续对西藏脆弱敏感的高原环境产生深远影响。西藏自治区既是重要的国家安全屏障和生态安全屏障,也是重要的战略资源储备基地、重要的"西电东送"接续基地以及面向南亚开放的重要通道,战略意义重大~([1-2])。"十三五"时期是西藏自治区全面建成小康社会的决胜阶段,也是推动经济社会低碳转型、维护全球生态安全的关键。为贯彻落实习近平总书记提出的"美丽西藏"要求和中央第六次西藏工作座谈会精神,积极应对     

对IPCC AR6报告中有关农业系统结论的解读

与IPCC第五次评估报告相比,第六次评估报告（AR6）有关农业的评估对象由作物生产系统延伸到粮食供应链系统,气候变化对作物生产不利影响的证据在加强。气候变化改变了作物适宜种植区,使中高纬度及温带地区作物种植界限向高纬度、高海拔地区推移。人为引起的气候变暖阻碍了作物产量的增长,地表O₃浓度增加使作物产量降低,CH₄排放加剧了这种不利影响。气候变化加剧作物病虫草害,极端气候事件高发加剧了粮食不安全,推升了国际粮食价格。适应措施有助于减缓气候变化不利影响,基于自然的适应方案在增强作物生产系统气候恢复力和保障粮食安全方面具有较高潜力。从保障国家粮食安全和重大战略需求出发,AR6报告对我国农业应对气候变化相关工作的启示如下：需要高度重视气候变化背景下作物种植适宜区转变与种植带北移的重要战略价值,合理规划农业生产布局;加强农业气象灾害和病虫害防治体系和能力建设,保障粮食生产稳定性;关注气候变化对国际作物生产和谷物贸易的影响,统筹国内、国际市场粮食资源,保障粮食安全;推进农业温室气体减排与作物生产高效协同,为实现国家减排目标做出贡献。     

全球气候治理对中国中长期发展的影响分析及未来建议

全球气候变暖毋庸质疑。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次评估报告(AR5)再次证实,全球气候持续变暖,由此引发风险越来越明确,而人类活动对全球气候变化影响的证据也越来越确凿。如何应对气候变化带来的不利影响是全人类共同的任务。中国作为人类命运共同体的一员,一直非常重视气候变化。2007年,国务院成立国家应对气候变化及节能减排工作领导小组,作为国家应对气候变化和节能减排工作的议事协调机构。自此,国家应对气候变化领导小组统一领导、国家发展和改革委员会归口管理、有关部门和地方分工负责、智库机构有力支撑、全社会广泛参与的应对气候变化管理体制和工作机制已经初步形成,并逐步将应对气候变化工作放入中国中长期发展战略中。随着对全球气候变化认知的深入,气候变化对中国中长期发展及战略部署的影响也越来越大,应对气候变化工作也将成为中国中长期发展必须考虑的一部分。应对气候变化是生态文明建设的重要一环,力推绿色低碳安全发展应是未来发展的必然之路。同时,对外需积极参与全球气候治理,对内更需加强科普宣传,提高全民意识。     

社会发展同人类与气候的关系

本文认为,气候与人类的关系已发生过多次重大变化,当前又面临新的变化,这个变化的决定因子是社会发展。本文对各个历史时代的社会性质与气候的关系作了简单的介绍,并指出当前变化的巨大意义     

US agricultural sector analysis on pesticide externalities – the impact of climate change and a Pigovian tax

Residuals from agricultural pesticides threaten the environment and human health. Climate change alters these externalities because it affects pest pressure and pesticide application rates. This study examines damages from pesticide externalities in US agriculture under different climate projections and the effects of alternative regulations. We find divergent impacts of externality regulation and climate change on agricultural production in the US. A Pigovian tax on pesticide externalities generally increases crop production cost, but farm revenue improves because of increased commodity prices. Climate change generally decreases US farm revenue because production increases and prices fall. Results also show a heterogeneous effect of climate change on pest management intensities across major crops.     

气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展

气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的环境问题之一,气候变化可能对生态系统和社会经济产生灾难性影响,农业是受气候变化影响最直接的脆弱行业。因此,气候变化对农业生产的影响研究一直是气候变化研究领域中的热点问题之一。该文系统介绍了有关全球气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究的现状与进展,包括气候变化对农业影响的研究方法、大气中温室气体浓度增加对农作物的影响试验、气候变化对农业气候资源的影响、气候变化对农作物生长发育和产量的影响、气候变化对农业种植制度和品种布局的影响、气候变化对农作物气候生产潜力和气候资源利用率的影响等,指出当前在研究气候变化对农业影响评估中存在的问题,提出了今后应加强对气候变化情景和预测模式不确定性的研究、气候变化对农业影响的方法研究。此外,气候变化背景下极端天气气候事件对农业生产的影响以及气候变化对农业病虫害的影响研究等仍较薄弱,有待进一步加强和深入。     

东北地区农业应对气候变化的策略与措施分析

气候变化的影响与适应已经成为农业生产面临的现实而紧迫的问题。1956-2005年东北地区增温1.5℃,幅度明显高于全国平均水平,给作物生产带来复杂的影响。东北是重要的国家商品粮生产基地,对国家粮食安全起着重要作用。探讨区域层面上适应气候变化的能力建设更具有针对性和现实性。文章分析了近50 a来东北地区气候变化的主要表现及其对农业生产的影响;针对气候变化过程中人类活动对土地利用和温室气体的影响,提出了东北地区适应和减缓气候变化的策略和措施,强调在农业生态、水资源利用、环境保护等多方面综合开展工作,积极采取行动,最终达到维护气候环境、充分利用气候资源的目的,为东北粮食生产安全、农业可持续发展做出贡献。     

Framings and coverage of climate change in Swedish specialized farming magazines

Climate change is a fundamental challenge for which agriculture is sensitive and vulnerable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified relevant information as key to enabling appropriate climate adaptation and mitigation action. Information specifically directed to farmers can be found, for example, in specialized farming magazines. While recent studies examine how national news media frame climate change, less—if any—studies have addressed climate framings and coverage in specialized media. Media framings are storylines that provide meaning by communicating how and why an issue should be seen as a problem, how it should be handled, and who is responsible for it. This paper analyses the framings and coverage of climate change in two Swedish specialized farming magazines from 2000 to 2009. It examines the extent of the climate change coverage, the content of the media items, and the dominant framings underlying their climate change coverage. The study identifies: increased coverage of climate change starting in 2007; frequent coverage of agriculture’s contribution to climate change, climate change impacts on agriculture, and consequences of climate politics for agriculture; and four prominent frames: conflict, scientific certainty, economic burden, and action. The paper concludes that climate change communicators addressing farmers and agricultural extension officers should pay attention to how these frames may be interpreted by different target audiences. Research is needed on how specialized media reports on climate-related issues and how science-based climate information is understood by different groups of farmers and which other factors influence farmers’ engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation.     

适应气候变化的国际行动和农业措施研究进展

针对气候变暖采取稳健的适应措施已成为国际社会共识。该文综合了当前适应气候变化的国际谈判进展及已有的农业适应气候变化措施,指出适应资金严重不足,技术研发、应用与转让难以实施,以及适应气候变化行动实施能力的不足严重制约着适应气候变化行动的有效实施;关于农业适应气候变化的技术措施仍缺乏系统的理论研究与应用示范。在此基础上,提出了未来中国农业适应气候变化需要重点开展的研究任务,即农业气象灾变过程的新特点及其风险管理, 农业适应气候变化的大数据决策管理系统研发及适应气候变化的农业气候区划与减灾保产技术研究,以切实推进农业适应气候变化,为确保国家粮食安全与农业可持续发展提供支撑。     

Climate change and migration: Is agriculture the main channel?

Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate or hinder migration. One of the sectors strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, which is the source of income for most of the world's poor. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. In this paper we use data on 108 countries from 1960 to 2010 to analyze the relationship between weather variations, changes in agricultural productivity and international migration. We find that negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by climate fluctuations significantly increase emigration from developing countries, an especially strong impact in poor countries but less so in middle income countries. These results are robust to the definitions of the poor country sample, and to several checks and alternative explanations suggested by the literature. Importantly, our results point to a causal interpretation of the agricultural channel to explain the climate change-migration nexus.     

大学生气候变化意识的一次调查——以南京农业大学为例

 大学气候变化教育是国家应对气候变化能力建设的重要组成部分。通过一个自主设计的问卷,随机抽样调查了南京农业大学部分在校本科生,评价和分析了其对气候变化问题的认识水平、应对行动态度与行动的意愿性等。结果表明,被调查者在气候变化与农业的关系上有较高的认知,但在气候变化意识的不同方面和年级间及专业间都存在一定差异。农学类学生对于温室气体的产生途径及其与气候变化的关系了解不够,不过,高年级学生和农科类学生关于气候变化与农业关系方面的认知分别显著高于低年级和文科类学生。然而,学生个体间在应对气候变化的参与态度上有很大差异,而气候变化的总体意识和参与态度与年级关系相对较弱。看来,高等农业院校本科教育中急需加强气候变化教育。建议开设气候变化及其应对的公共选修课或专门气候变化管理课程,以适应应对气候变化的人才培养需求。     

The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China

Climate change can bring positive and negative effects on Chinese agriculture, but negative impacts tend to dominate. The annual mean surface temperature has risen about 0.5–0.8 °C. The precipitation trends have not been identified during the past 100 years in China, although the frequency and intensity of extreme weather/climate events have increased, especially of drought. Water scarcity, more frequent and serious outbreaks of insects and diseases, and soil degradation caused by climate change have impacted agro-environmental conditions. However, temperature rise prolonged the crop growth seasons and cold damages have reduced in Northeast China. The projection of climate change indicates that the surface temperature will continue to increase with about 3.9 to 6.0 °C and precipitation is expected to increase by 9 to 11 % at the end of 21st century in China. Climate warming will provide more heat and as a consequence, the boundary of the triple-cropping system (TCS) will extend northwards by as much as 200 to 300 km, from the Yangtze River Valley to the Yellow River Basin, and the current double-cropping system (DCS) will move to the central part of China, into the current single cropping system (SCS) area which will decrease in SCS surface area of 23.1 % by 2050. Climate warming will also affect the optimum location for the cultivation of China’s main crop varieties. If no measures are taken to adapt to climate changes, compared with the potential yield in 1961–1990, yields of irrigated wheat, corn and rice are projected to decrease by 2.2–6.7 %, 0.4 %–11.9 % and 4.3–12.4 % respectively in the 2050s. Climate warming will enhance potential evaporation and reduce the availability of soil moisture, thus causing a greater need for agricultural irrigation, intensifying the conflict between water supply and demand, especially in arid and semi-arid areas of China. With adequate irrigation, the extent of the reduction in yield of China’s corn and wheat can be improved by 5 % to 15 %, and rice by 5 % or so than the potential yield in 1961–1990. Adaptive measures can reduce the agricultural loss under climate change. If effective measures are taken in a timely way, then climate change in the next 30–50 years will not have a significant influence on China’s food security.     

SOME ADVANCES IN CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT RESEARCH IN CHINA SINCE 1990

Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the naturalgreenhouse effect,which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes.China is alargely agricultural country with a large size of population and the relative shortages of farminglands and water resources,thus increasing the importance of climate warming for national economydevelopment.Therefore,Chinese government and scientists have paid great attention to theimpact-assessment of climate warming on national economy in China,especially during the past 10years.This presentation will briefly describe some major issues of climate warming impact researchon national vegetation,agriculture,forest,water resources,energy use and regional sea level forChina,etc.As a result,all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in thecharacteristic natural vegetation types.It is also shown that comparing with the distributionsimulated under the normal time period 1951—1980 as the present climate,by 2050 large changesin cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China.Climate warming would lead toincrease cropping diversification and multiplication.Unfortunately,the possible net balancebetween precipitation and evapotranspiration would be negative and it would lead to reduce thegrain production in China significantly due to enhanced moisture stress in soil.The most evidentinfluence of climate warming on water resources would happen in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Basin andthe water supply-demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area.And also,a warmerclimate for China will alter the energy requirement for domestic heating and cooling,that is,reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling insouthern China.