对IPCC AR6报告中有关农业系统结论的解读

与IPCC第五次评估报告相比,第六次评估报告（AR6）有关农业的评估对象由作物生产系统延伸到粮食供应链系统,气候变化对作物生产不利影响的证据在加强。气候变化改变了作物适宜种植区,使中高纬度及温带地区作物种植界限向高纬度、高海拔地区推移。人为引起的气候变暖阻碍了作物产量的增长,地表O₃浓度增加使作物产量降低,CH₄排放加剧了这种不利影响。气候变化加剧作物病虫草害,极端气候事件高发加剧了粮食不安全,推升了国际粮食价格。适应措施有助于减缓气候变化不利影响,基于自然的适应方案在增强作物生产系统气候恢复力和保障粮食安全方面具有较高潜力。从保障国家粮食安全和重大战略需求出发,AR6报告对我国农业应对气候变化相关工作的启示如下：需要高度重视气候变化背景下作物种植适宜区转变与种植带北移的重要战略价值,合理规划农业生产布局;加强农业气象灾害和病虫害防治体系和能力建设,保障粮食生产稳定性;关注气候变化对国际作物生产和谷物贸易的影响,统筹国内、国际市场粮食资源,保障粮食安全;推进农业温室气体减排与作物生产高效协同,为实现国家减排目标做出贡献。

Interpretation of the IPCC AR6 report on agricultural systems

Compared with the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the assessment object of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on agriculture extends from the crop production system to the food supply chain system, and the evidence of the adverse effects of climate change on crop production is strengthening. Climate change has changed the suitable planting areas of crops, making the planting boundaries of crops in the middle and high latitudes and temperate regions move to high latitudes and high altitudes. Anthropogenic warming has slowed crop yield growth, increased surface ozone concentrations have reduced crop yields, and methane emissions have exacerbated this adverse effect. Climate change aggravates crop diseases, pests and weeds, and the high incidence of extreme weather events exacerbates food insecurity and pushes up international food prices. Adaptation measures can help mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, and nature-based adaptation options have high potential for enhancing the climate resilience of crop production systems and ensuring food security. Starting from ensuring national food security and major strategic needs, the enlightenment of IPCC AR6 report on China’s agricultural response to climate change is as follows. Firstly, under the background of climate change, the transformation of crop planting suitable areas and the northward movement of planting belt have important strategic value, which need to be paid great attention to and reasonably plan the layout of agricultural production. Secondly, to strengthen the system and capacity-building of agro meteorological disasters and pest control to ensure the stability of grain production. Thirdly, to pay attention to the impact of climate change on international crop production and grain trade, coordinate food resources in domestic and international markets, and ensure food security; Finally, to promote efficient coordination between agricultural greenhouse gas emission reduction and crop production, and contribute to the realization of national emission reduction targets.