季风环流对不均匀加热的敏感性试验

考查了季风环流对湿过程响应的数值模拟。结果表明,在季风环流中潜热是主要的反馈过程。由于这种过程,在对流层低层从阿拉伯海到中国南海的西南季风气流和在对流层高层的南亚上空的东风急流在暴发期和活跃期都显著地增强。在活跃期期间表面潜热通量(大部分在海洋上)对环流的维持是重要的,但对暴发期则是次要的。     

青藏高原增暖对东亚夏季风的影响——大气环流模式数值模拟研究

20世纪50年代以来,随着全球海表面温度年代际变化和全球变暖现象的出现,东亚夏季风降水和环流场也出现相应的年代际变化。是什么原因引起这个长期的变化趋势？研究表明青藏高原增暖可能是导致东亚夏季风年代际变化的重要因子之一。为了能够更好地理解青藏高原地表状况对下游东亚季风的影响,作者使用德国马普气象研究所大气环流模式（ECHAM）进行一系列数值试验。在两组敏感性试验中,通过改变高原上的地表反照率从而达到改变地表温度的目的。数值试验结果表明:青藏高原增暖有助于增强对流层上层的南亚高压、高原北侧西风急流和高原南侧东风急流以及印度低空西南季风;与此同时,东亚地区低层西南气流水汽输送增强。高原增暖后降水场的变化表现为:印度西北部季风降水增加,长江中下游以及朝鲜半岛梅雨降水增多;在太平洋副热带高压控制下的西北太平洋地区和孟加拉湾东北部,季风降水减少。对数值模拟结果的初步诊断分析表明:在感热加热和对流引起的潜热加热相互作用下,南亚高压强度加强,东亚夏季低层西南季风增大、梅雨锋降水增强,高原东部对流层上层的副热带气旋性环流增加,以及对流层低层的西太平洋副热带高压增强。另外,在青藏高原增暖的背景下,孟加拉湾地区季风降水减弱。本项研究有助于更好地理解东亚夏季风年代际变化特征和未来气候变化趋势。     

夏季亚洲—太平洋涛动与大气环流和季风降水

利用ERA-40再分析资料和数值模拟,分析了在亚洲-太平洋区域的大气遥相关以及与亚洲季风降水和西北太平洋热带气旋活动气候特征的关系,探讨了青藏高原加热和太平洋海表温度(SST)对遥相关的影响,结果表明:亚洲-太平洋涛动(Asian-Pacific Oscillation,APO)是夏季对流层扰动温度在亚洲与太平洋中纬度之间的一种"跷跷板"现象,当亚洲大陆中纬度对流层偏冷时,中、东太平洋中纬度对流层偏暖,反之亦然;这种遥相关也出现在平流层中,只是其位相与对流层的相反.APO为研究亚洲与太平洋大气环流相互作用提供了一个途径.APO指数也是亚洲-太平洋对流层热力差异指数,它具有年际和年代际的多时间尺度变化特征,在1958-2001年亚洲与太平洋之间的对流层热力差异呈现出减弱趋势,同时也有显著的5.5 a周期.APO形成可能与太阳辐射在亚洲陆地和太平洋的加热差异所造成的纬向垂直环流有关,数值模拟进一步表明:夏季青藏高原加热可以造成高原附近对流层温度升高、上升运动加强,太平洋下沉运动加强、温度下降,从而形成APO现象;而太平洋年代际涛动和赤道东太平洋的厄尔尼若现象对APO的影响可能较小.当夏季APO异常时,南亚高压、欧亚中纬度西风急流、南亚热带东风急流以及太平洋上空的副热带高压都出现显著变化,并伴随着亚洲季风降水及西北太平洋热带气旋活动异常.过去40多年来的长江中上游地区夏季变冷与APO有关,可能是全球大气环流年代际变化在该区域的一种反映.APO异常信号可以传播到南、北两极.此外,亚洲-太平洋之间的这种遥相关型也出现在其他季节.     

南海夏季风爆发早晚的经向环流异常的机理研究

南海夏季风爆发与东亚地区的局地经向环流密切相关.本文利用线性局地经向环流诊断模式,定量诊断分析了1979~2003年5月1~15日的局地经向环流及其在夏季风爆发早晚年的差异,分析找出了在该关键时段对经向环流异常有正贡献的主要因子,从而确立影响季风爆发的相应天气过程及贡献机制.结果表明,在季风爆发早年期间,局地经向环流异常呈现为"Hadley环流"形态:上升运动(下沉运动)影响南海中北部(江淮地区),低空非地转南风(北风)影响南海中南部(华南和江南地区).季风爆发晚年的情况则与季风爆发早年相反.对造成经向环流异常的各个因子进行定量分析发现,经向分布不均匀的潜热加热的贡献作用最大,其次是温度平流和西风动量输送过程,与越赤道气流有关的边界效应则对南海中南部的低空南风有一定贡献.相应的天气学分析表明,季风爆发偏早年的副热带高空急流强度偏强且位置偏南,其动量输送过程导致对流层上层出现非地转南风、急流轴南侧(北侧)的华南(华北)地区出现高空辐散(辐合)和低层辐合上升(辐散下沉).与此同时,中纬度西风带扰动的南下和副热带高压脊从南海地区的撤出,中低层温度平流导致华中地区冷却和南海中北部增暖,进一步加强低纬地区上升、中纬地区下沉的经向环流异常.华南地区异常的非地转北风与南海中南部异常的非地转南风,显著加强了南海中北部的低空水汽辐合和对流潜热释放,从而激发出强烈上升运动.由此可见,中低纬天气系统配置能有效调节中国东部及南海地区的潜热加热和冷暖平流的南北分布,从而引起与季风爆发对应的局地经向环流的显著变化.     

空间非均匀加热对副热带高压形成和变异的影响──Ⅲ:凝结潜热加热与南亚高压及西太平洋副高

通过理论分析和数值模拟,研究了降水所致凝结潜热影响副热带高压带断裂的物理机制。基于全型垂直涡度方程的尺度分析指出,强的对流凝结加热的垂直梯度的变化,导致副热带地区对流层高层和中低层的高低压分布呈现出反位相。数值试验证实凝结潜热是决定东半球夏季副热带高压位置和强度的关键因素：东亚季风降雨所致凝结潜热加热使高层南亚高压位于加热中心西侧,中层西太平洋副热带高压位于加热中心东侧。通过定常波的传播,副热带地区的凝结潜热加热对中高纬天气的形成和维持有一定影响。     

印度半岛热力变化对亚洲季风环流异常的影响

海陆热力差异的季节性变化是季风产生的原始驱动力,因此海洋和大陆任何一方的变化必然会影响季风环流出现异常。本文探讨了欧亚大陆高、低层气温、南亚大陆和印度洋之间海陆热力差异的变化特征,发现南亚大陆的印度半岛区域下垫面的季节性增暖出现最早,其增暖从春季就开始出现,比对流层上层增暖偏早约两个月,相应的低层经向海陆温度梯度由冬季型转为夏季型最早的区域出现在80°E附近。进一步分析了印度半岛下垫面热力异常的变化特征及其与季风环流异常的关系,初步揭示了南亚区域高、低层气温变化的相互联系,发现印度半岛下垫面的迅速增温引起了大气的强感热加热,进而影响高、低层季风环流的异常变化。结果表明,春末夏初印度半岛暖下垫面的加热作用有利于亚洲夏季型季风环流建立偏早,同时也有利于亚洲夏季季风环流的加强,而冷下垫面的作用则相反。     

1998年夏季风爆发前后南海地区的水汽输送和水汽收支

利用NCEP逐日再分析资料、Micaps系统提供的气象观测资料及局地经向环流线性诊断模式，定量分析了2003年夏季东亚地区局地经向环流的演变情况。结果表明：(1)东亚地区夏季雨带的移动与局地经向环流的演变紧密联系。当淮河流域发生强降水时，在淮河流域上升和华南地区下沉的副热带季风环流圈尤为显著，该环流圈主要由潜热加热、热量垂直输送、温度平流和西风动量经向输送等物理因子所驱动；(2)潜热加热主要影响副热带季风环流上升支的强度，反映了梅雨锋对流系统的重要作用；(3)热量垂直输送、温度平流及西风动量经向输送则主要影响副热带季风环流上升支的北移，其中热量垂直输送、与强(弱)斜压槽活动有关的经向温度平流和涡动西风动量经向输送(纬向温度平流和平均西风动量经向输送)对上升支北移的作用在华南地区汛期后期(在其余夏季降水阶段)较突出。以上这些物理因子具有预报东亚地区局地经向环流演变和雨带移动的参考价值。     

梅雨末期暴雨过程中高低空环流的耦合——数值实验

一次梅雨末期暴雨过程的数值实验结果表明:模式较好地预报了西南涡的发展,暴雨区与高低空西风急流和南亚东风急流在空间上的联系。对流层上下层的耦合主要发生在低空急流和南亚东风急流之间。以北部上升,南部下沉的反环流为主要特征。无潜热加热模式也模拟出上述特征,说明梅雨期的大尺度环流系统一部分是斜压与大地形强迫的结果,而在暴雨区内的垂直耦合很弱,上升运动减小一个量级。潜热加热极大地增强了垂直反坏流。相应的对流层下层向北的横向运动增强低空急流,对流层上层向南的横向运动增强南亚东风急流。增强了的低空急流和南亚东风急流,通过动量-质量的调整,有利于反环流的维持。 梅雨末期的暴雨过程中,低空急流和南亚高空急流的耦合是重要的。而潜热释放增强了这种耦合。     

青藏高原抬升加热气候效应研究的新进展

对近4年来关于青藏高原加热影响气候的研究进行回顾.首先介绍利用位涡方程和热力适应理论,揭示;夏季高原上空低层气旋式及高层反气旋式环流结构稳定维持的动力学机理.结果表明高原加热作用造成的低层正涡源是低层气旋式环流得以稳定维持的重要原因.而边界层摩擦产生的负位涡是平衡正位涡的主要因素.高原加热还在高原上空形成负位涡,它影响着盛夏的大气环流,是青藏高原上空强大而稳定的反气旋环流得以维持的重要因素.在春夏过渡季节青藏高原非绝热加热对大气环流季节变化以及亚洲季风爆发的影响力方面,进一步确认了感热加热在过渡季节早期(5月中旬以前)环:流演变中的重要作用.青藏高原非绝热加热的时间演变引起了海陆热力差异对比的变化,使副热带高压带首先在孟加拉湾东部断裂,亚洲季风因而在孟加拉湾爆发.结果还表明,用纬向风垂直差异的时空分布能更准确地表示季节变化的区域差异.在青藏高原非绝热加热与北半球环流系统年际变化的联系方面,发现夏季青藏高原的加热强(弱)的年份,高原感热加热气泵(SHAP)高(低)效工作,使高原加热对周边地区低层暖湿空气的抽吸效应和对高层大气向周边地区的排放作用加强(减弱),高原及邻近地区的上升运动,下层辐合和上层辐散均增强(减弱),从而影响着高原和周边地区的环流以及亚洲季风区大尺度环流系统.而且高原的加热强迫还能够激发产生一支沿亚欧大陆东部海岸向东北方向传播的Rossby波列,其频散效应可影响到更远的东太平洋以至北美地区的大气环流.研究还表明,盛夏的南亚高压存在"青藏高压型"和"伊朗高压型"的双模态,它们与高原加热状态有关,且显著地与亚洲季风区的气候分布密切联系.     

2022年我国夏季极端高温阶段性特征及成因北大核心CSCD

利用常规观测和自动气象站加密观测资料以及ERA5再分析资料分析2022年夏季我国大范围极端高温阶段性特征及其热动力成因,结果表明:此次极端高温存在两个不同阶段:6月高温区集中在华北黄淮地区,7—8月高温区位于四川盆地—长江中下游地区;两个阶段极端高温均发生在异常环流背景条件下,对流层上层为显著偏强的南亚高压控制区,其主导系统分别为500 hPa强烈发展的华北高压脊和异常强盛的副热带高压坝;Rossby波能量自上游向华北地区持续频散和瞬变天气扰动偏弱是华北高压脊增强和维持的主要成因,西北太平洋副热带高压南侧的大气热源增强、赤道附近热带辐合区异常偏强的上升气流在30°N副热带高压脊线附近下沉,有利于西北太平洋副热带高压的西伸加强且稳定维持。对流层低层强烈暖平流和边界层非绝热加热是华北黄淮地区高温形成的主要影响因子,高温的维持主要依靠异常强烈的非绝热加热;四川盆地—长江中下游地区高温的形成受深厚对流层内异常下沉增温和边界层内非绝热加热共同影响,高温长时间维持的影响因子除非绝热加热外,极端强盛的南亚高压控制区内异常绝热加热项(下沉增温)的贡献亦不可忽视。     

East Asian summer monsoon circulation structure controlled by feedback of condensational heating

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) features strong humid low-level southerly flows and abundant rainfall over the subtropical East Asia. This study identified how condensational heating generated by the EASM rainfall can affect the EASM circulation by contrasting two 10-member ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model experiments with Community Climate Model version 3/National Center for Atmospheric Research respectively with and without feedback of condensational heating over the East Asian domain. Major results inferred from the experiments are as follows. Condensational heating is found to absolutely dominate diabatic heating over East Asia. Exclusion of the feedback of condensational heating leads to a significant weakening of summertime tropospheric warming over land and thus a large reduction of the land-sea thermal contrast between entire Asian continent and surrounding oceans. Associated with this, the lower-level EASM flows are weakened, South Asian High at 200 hPa migrates southward with reduced intensity and breaks over East Asia with southerly flows prevailing in the upper troposphere, in contrast to northerly flows in reality. Consequently, local EASM meridional cell disappears and the baroclinic structure featured by the EASM circulation that is dynamically determined by convective condensational heating over East Asia is altered to a barotropic structure. Therefore, it is concluded that the feedback of condensational heating acts to largely enhance lower-level flows of the EASM and essentially determine its baroclinic structure and meridional cell, once the solar radiation and inhomogeneity of the Earth’s surface form low-level monsoon flows in East Asia by enhancing land-sea thermal contrast.     

Progress in the study on the formation of the summertime subtropical anticyclone

The studies in China on the formation of the summertime subtropical anticyclone on the climate timescale are reviewed. New insights in resent studies are introduced. It is stressed that either in the free atmosphere or in the planetary boundary, the descending arm of the Hadley cell cannot be considered as a mechanism for the formation of the subtropical anticyclone. Then the theories of thermal adaptation of the atmosphere to external thermal forcing and the potential vorticity forcing are developed to understand the formation of the subtropical anticyclone in the three-dimensional domain. Numerical experiments are designed to verify these theories. Results show that in the boreal summer, the formation of the strong South Asian High in the upper troposphere and the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific in the middle and lower troposphere is, to a great extent, due to the convective latent heating associated with the Asian monsoon, but affected by orography and the surface sensible heating over the continents.On the other hand, the formation of the subtropical anticyclone at the surface over the northern Pacific and in the upper troposphere over North America is mainly due to the strong surface sensible heating over North America, but affected by radiation cooling over the eastern North Pacific. Moreover, in the real atmosphere such individual thermal forcing is well organized. By considering the different diabatic heating in synthesis, a quadruple heating pattern is found over each subtropical continent and its adjacent oceans in summer. A distinct circulation pattern accompanies this heating pattern. The global summer subtropical heating and circulation may be viewed as “mosaics” of such quadruplet heating and circulationpatterns respectively. At last, some important issues for further research in understanding and predicting the variations of the subtropical anticyclone are raised.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL TRANSITION OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON CIRCULATION AND ASIAN-PACIFIC THERMAL FIELD AND POSSIBLE MECHANISMS

The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, CMAP rainfall and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature (SST) datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the seasonal transition of East Asian monsoon and Asian-Pacific thermal contrast, together with the possible causes. Based on the 250 hPa air temperature over two selected key areas, the Asian-Pacific thermal difference (APTD) index is calculated. Results show that the APTD index is highly consistent with the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) index defined by Zhao et al., in terms of different key areas in different seasons. Moreover, the time point of the seasonal transition of the Asian-Pacific thermal contrast can be well determined by the APTD index, indicative of seasonal variation in East Asian atmospheric circulation from winter to summer. The transition characteristic of the circulation can be summarized as follows. The continental cold high at lower tropospheric level moves eastward to the East China Sea and decreases rapidly in intensity, while the low-level northerlies turn to southerlies. At middle tropospheric level, the East Asia major trough is reduced and moves eastward. Furthermore, the subtropical high strengthens and appears near Philippines. The South Asia high shifts from the east of Philippines to the west of Indochina Peninsula, and the prevailing southerlies change into northerlies in upper troposphere. Meanwhile, both the westerly and easterly jets both jump to the north. The seasonal transition of atmospheric circulation is closely related to the thermal contrast, and the possible mechanism can be concluded as follows. Under the background of the APTD seasonal transition, the southerly wind appears firstly at lower troposphere, which triggers the ascending motion via changing vertical shear of meridional winds. The resultant latent heating accelerates the transition of heating pattern from winter to summer. The summer heating pattern can further promote the adjustment of circulation, which favors the formation and strengthening of the low-level southerly and upper-level northerly winds. As a result, the meridional circulation of the East Asian subtropical monsoon is established through a positive feedback between the circulation and thermal fields. Moreover, the time point of this seasonal transition has a significant positive correlation with the SST anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean, providing a basis for the short-term climate prediction.     

Possible effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the “upstream” climate over West Asia,North Africa,South Europe and the North Atlantic

We conduct several experiments using a fully-coupled climate model to understand the role of Tibetan Plateau (TP) surface heating in the climate variations over West Asia, South Europe, North Africa, and the North Atlantic during summer. Emphasis has been placed on the physical processes and responsible mechanisms that involve the shift of the Hadley cell and the important features of rotational and divergent response of the atmosphere to the TP heating. The relative importance of the TP to the Asian continent is also analyzed. A heating of the TP surface leads to local increases in tropospheric temperature and the thickness of the air column due to the so-called air pumping effect. In the upper troposphere, the South Asian high intensifies and extends westward. To the west of TP, especially in West Asia, South Europe, North Africa, and the North Atlantic, distinguished Rossby wave responses to the TP heating occur with anomalous high pressure and uniform warming in the entire troposphere. Correspondingly, descending motions intensify and precipitation decreases. However, the tropical Sahel rainfall increases because of a northward shift of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone and the anomalous westerlies due to the weakening of the southeastern portion of the Atlantic subtropical high. These effects of the TP heating explain a remarkable portion of the effects by the Asian continent heating. In addition, the impacts of different magnitudes of TP surface heating are also discussed.

     

Role of the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing in the summer climate patterns over subtropical Asia

The mechanism of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) thermal forcing in influencing the summer climate patterns over subtropical Asia is investigated by means of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis diagnosis. Results show that since the TP is a huge elevated heating source with the strongest heating in the surface layers in summer, the thermal adaptation results in a shallow cyclonic circulation near the surface and a deep anticyclonic circulation above it. According to the steady barotropic vorticity equation for large scales, airflow must converge in the lower layers and diverge in the higher layers over the eastern side of the TP. However, the western side of the TP is characterized by a reversed structure, i.e., divergence in lower layers but convergence in higher layers. Hence, pumping and sucking processes bring in upward and downward movement over the east and west sides of the TP, respectively. Such a circulation is embedded in the large-scale circulation that is forced by the Eurasian continental heating. Because the TP together with Iran Plateau are located at the central and eastern parts of the continent, and, because the orography-induced circulation is in phase with the continental scale circulation, the role of the TP thermal forcing is to intensify the East Asian monsoon to its east and the dry and hot desert climate in mid-Asia to its west. The summertime thermal forcing of the Rockies and Andes can generate similar circulations along the two subtopics as the TP does since they are located near the western coasts. But, the lower troposphere poleward flow that is induced by orographic thermal forcing does not coincide with the poleward flows over the eastern coastal region that is induced by continental heating and the monsoon rainfall in North and South America is not as strong as in East Asia. However, the equatorward flow and the associated subsidence induced by the two mountain ranges along the western coasts of both North and South America are in phase with those induced by continental heating. These contribute to the formation of the stable low stratus clouds and strong long-wave radiative cooling over the eastern subtropical Pacific regions just off the western coast of the continent.     

THE TIMING OF SOUTH-ASIAN HIGH ESTABLISHMENT AND ITS RELATION TO TROPICAL ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON AND PRECIPITATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL CHINA IN SUMMER

The timing of the South Asian High (SAH) establishment over the Indochina Peninsula (IP) from April to May and its relations to the setup of the subsequent tropical Asian summer monsoon and precipitation over eastern-central China in summer are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data and the daily precipitation data from 753 weather stations in China. It is found that the transitions of the zonal wind vertical shear and convection establishment over tropical Asia are earlier (later) in the years of early (late) establishment of SAH. In the lower troposphere, anti-cyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly circulation dominates the equatorial Indian Ocean. Correspondingly, the tropical Asian summer monsoon establishes earlier (later). Furthermore, the atmospheric circulation and the water vapor transport in the years of advanced SAH establishment are significantly different from the delayed years in Asia in summer. Out-of-phase distribution of precipitation in eastern-central China will appear with a weak (strong) SAH and western Pacific subtropical high, strong (weak) ascending motion in the area south of Yangtze River but weak (strong) ascending motion in the area north of it, and cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) water vapor flux anomaly circulation from the eastern-central China to western Pacific. Accordingly, the timing of the SAH establishment at the upper levels of IP is indicative of the subsequent onset of the tropical Asian summer monsoon and the flood-drought pattern over eastern-central China in summer.     

4～5月南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立过程特征及其可能机制

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 发现菲律宾群岛以东洋面上空反气旋在4月第5候分裂成位于中南半岛上空的西部中心和仍位于菲律宾以东洋面上空的东部中心两部分, 其中位于中南半岛上空的反气旋中心加强后形成南亚高压。中南半岛高空反气旋生成加强和菲律宾群岛以东洋面高空反气旋减弱消亡的同时发生是4~5月南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立过程的主要特征, 其主要促发因子是亚洲南部大气非绝热加热状态的改变。事实上, 随着对流沿亚澳 “大陆桥” 北移和中南半岛对流建立, 中南半岛上升运动加强, 高空辐散加剧, 西部中心在中南半岛南部生成, 南亚高压初步建立。随后, 菲律宾群岛以东洋面上热源突然东撤至150°E以东, 中南半岛热源成为主导, 在加热区东面对流层高层激发出气旋式环流, 造成西太平洋高压在120°E附近分裂。之后, 孟加拉湾[CD*2]中南半岛夏季风建立, 孟加拉湾[CD*2]中南半岛对流加强, 在深对流作用下, 中南半岛上空释放大量潜热, 上升运动进一步加强, 西部中心加强北抬。同时, 南海对流开始加强, 其释放的潜热加热会在加热区东部的对流层高层激发出正涡度变率, 令东部中心减弱消亡, 南亚高压在中南半岛上空完全建立。     

长江流域梅雨期大范围持续性强降水事件的自维持机制:2020年一次暴雨过程的个例分析

长江流域梅雨期降水强度大、范围广、持续时间长,经常导致大范围严重洪涝灾害。该类强降水事件的内动力学过程值得深入讨论。本文以2020年7月5～9日长江流域一次大范围持续性降水为例,通过WRF数值试验分析了降水过程中的凝结潜热与环流系统的相互作用过程。结果表明:在此次大范围持续性强降水事件中,由于凝结潜热的释放,在高层形成高压异常,有利于南亚高压（SAH）加强东伸,SAH东伸的同时与西太平洋副热带高压（WPSH）相互作用,加强WPSH西伸。在潜热释放中心的中低层形成低压异常,有助于阻挡WPSH北上,从而形成稳定的WPSH,有利于降雨系统在长江流域的维持。东亚夏季风演变表现为明显的停滞与北跳特征,其中WPSH的活动是季风雨带演变的核心。本文研究表明,大尺度凝结潜热释放可以通过调节天气系统形成稳定的环流系统,从而有利于雨带加强和维持。这种大尺度雨带凝结潜热释放与环流的相互作用机制可能是夏季风雨带停滞的重要过程。