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利用三维非静力中尺度大气模式—MM5(Version 3.7)输出的黄渤海海面风场和气压场预报资料,用三维斜压陆架海模式—HAMSOM对2008年8月22日温带气旋造成的渤海风暴潮过程进行了模拟,得到逐时的渤海增水场、渤海风暴潮流场,与验潮站的观测数据进行比较。结果表明:在渤海西部已经转西北风的情况下,塘沽出现了121 cm的高增水,造成这种现象的原因很复杂,其中远距离的气旋作用产生的北黄海海域偏东大风导致北黄海水体大量涌入渤海应该是一个主要原因。这也是今后预报业务中必须特别关注的产生风暴潮的重要因素。数值模拟的塘沽测站的风暴潮增水极值及增水过程都和实测值符合较好,本次过程中数值预报能够很好地模拟出这种特殊的风暴潮。在离岸风的情况下产生风暴潮,这仅靠预报员凭经验主观分析判断是很难的,数值预报可以弥补预报员主观分析的不足。 相似文献
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影响山东半岛风暴潮的分析和预报 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
通过对1981-1998年烟台、成山头的潮汐资料和日最大增水高度资料及实时天气资料的分析,给出了山东半岛的潮汐和风暴潮的气候特征,影响山东半岛风暴潮的主要天气系统有气旋、冷锋和热带气旋;用最优子集回归建立了气旋类、冷锋类型的防风暴潮的预报方程,对热带气旋造成山东半岛的风暴潮进行了定性分析并给出了该类型的预报方法,建立了山东半岛防风暴潮的预报警报系统。通过1999年1-7月的试报,计算气旋类和冷锋类增水的最大误差为13.9cm,最小为2.6cm。 相似文献
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为验证德国汉堡大学所开发的三维陆架模式HAMSOM(Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model)对渤海海域气旋风暴潮模拟的可行性和准确度, 并对不同来源气象数据的模拟结果进行比较, 分别使用T213和NCEP资料的风场和气压场数据, 运用HAM SOM模式对2007年3月4—5日发生在渤海和黄海北部的气旋风暴潮增水过程进行了数值模拟。模拟结果较好地反映出烟台、威海两站风暴潮增水过程的水位变化, 较准确地模拟出风暴潮在渤海、黄海北部的增水过程, 且T213资料比NCEP资料的模拟结果更接近实况, 该模式对研究和模拟渤海气旋风暴潮比较适用。 相似文献
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“070304”渤海特大风暴潮的成因分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对2007年3月4日发生在渤海的特大风暴潮天气过程,从大气环流形势、动力条件、天文条件、地形条件等方面进行了详细的分析。结果表明,长时间北高南低的地面气压场在渤海形成持久的偏东大风是造成风暴潮的重要因素;强烈的低层辐合高空辐散使地面气旋不断加强,气旋四周较强的气压梯度力是风暴潮的强迫动力之一;风应力增水作用与天文大潮相叠加直接加剧了风暴潮的强度。渤海特殊的地形特征有利于形成风暴潮天气,当地面风由东北转为西北后,渤海湾的潮位开始回落,渤海海峡的潮位继续升高,其最高潮位时间与潮位回落时间均滞后于渤海湾。 相似文献
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对台风“麦莎”风暴潮过程的数值模拟 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
利用NCEP再分析资料和中尺度天气数值预报模式MM5/V3.7,模拟2005年8月8日第9号台风“麦莎”减弱的热带风暴造成渤海风暴潮的天气过程,得出与风暴潮发生相关的气象要素预报场,即风场和气压场;将其输入HAMSOM海洋模式模拟出本次渤海风暴潮过程增水的格点场。选用塘沽、京唐港2个验潮站的实际增水与HAMSOM模拟的增水进行比较、分析。结果表明:①用大气与海洋模式结合的方法客观定量地计算风暴增水是可行的,HAMSOM能够模拟台风风暴潮的增水过程。②本次过程中,HAMSOM对渤海西部(120°E以西)的增水模拟得比较好,对渤海东部增水的模拟与实况差距较大。③HAMSOM对塘沽增水高峰时段(8日12:00~20:00)及京唐港整个过程增水的模拟都很接近实况,绝对误差均在15cm以内,对本次风暴潮的预报有很好的参考作用。④HAMSOM对塘沽和京唐港2站的最大增水模拟的精度都较高,出现时间也与实况基本同步。 相似文献
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登陆台风Winnie(1997)的数值模拟研究Ⅰ:结果检验和云系的模拟 总被引:22,自引:8,他引:22
用非静力平衡的中尺度模式MM5 (V2 )对 1997年 11号台风Winnie在登陆后演变为温带气旋的过程进行了48h模拟。结果表明 :MM 5不仅比较好地模拟出台风在陆地上的移动路径及其产生的降水 ,而且成功地模拟出了台风登陆后次中心的产生。利用模拟大气中的水物质 (云水、雨水、冰晶、雪水和霰 )模拟了台风云图 ,很好地展示了在卫星实际观测的红外云图上 ,Winnie台风在登陆后其云系的结构从热带气旋的螺旋结构到温带气旋的锋面云系结构的转变过程。因此对Winnie台风的数值模拟可以作为深入研究台风登陆后从热带气旋演变为温带气旋的变性过程的基础。 相似文献
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羊角沟位于平缓浅滩的莱州湾南岸,该地形利于风暴潮的形成。每年的秋、春季节,黄河下游及江淮流域经常出观气旋活动,在其发展东移过程中常伴有黄海偏东大风。在风的摩擦作用下,使海水经渤海海峡涌入渤海、整个渤海海域持续增水。当气旋入海后,其后部的冷空气南下,常伴有偏北大风。在偏北大风的作用下,使已经持续增水的渤海海域在其南岸的莱州湾出现向岸海流,莱州湾沿海区潮位剧增形成风暴潮。 相似文献
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温带气旋诱发的渤海风暴潮天气分析 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
通过对2007年3月4日渤海风暴潮天气过程进行分析,结果表明,强烈而持久的向岸大风是造成风暴潮的重要因素;气旋四周较强的气压梯度力是风暴潮的主要强迫动力;风应力增水作用与天文大潮相叠加直接加剧了风暴潮的强度;渤海特殊的地形特征有利于形成风暴潮天气,渤海地区风向的变化是导致渤海沿岸各地出现高潮位时间差的主要原因,当地面风由东北转为西北后,渤海湾的潮位开始回落,渤海海峡的潮位继续升高,其最高潮位出现时间与潮位回落时间均滞后于渤海湾;由于气旋的移动路径和影响时间造成渤海海峡的风速极值滞后于渤海湾,而其增幅却远远大于渤海湾. 相似文献
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Abstract Storm surges in various Canadian waters are reviewed. Following a brief discussion of the weather systems that cause storm surges in Canadian coastal and inland waters, the mathematical formulations to describe the development of storm surges are given. In reviewing storm surges in the different Canadian waters, particular attention is given to describe the influence of the presence of sea ice on surge development and the impact of shallow coastal areas, where the coastline configuration is itself changed by the surge, on inland penetration of the storm surge. The Canadian waters that may be affected by storm surges include the east and west coasts, the Beaufort Sea, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence estuary, Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. 相似文献
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Comparison of three methods for estimating the sea level rise effect on storm surge flooding 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Two linear methods, including the simple linear addition and linear addition by expansion, and numerical simulations were employed to estimate storm surges and associated flooding caused by Hurricane Andrew for scenarios of sea level rise (SLR) from 0.15 m to 1.05 m with an interval of 0.15 m. The interaction between storm surge and SLR is almost linear at the open Atlantic Ocean outside Biscayne Bay, with slight reduction in peak storm surge heights as sea level rises. The nonlinear interaction between storm surges and SLR is weak in Biscayne Bay, leading to small differences in peak storm surge heights estimated by three methods. Therefore, it is appropriate to estimate elevated storm surges caused by SLR in these areas by adding the SLR magnitude to storm surge heights. However, the magnitude and extent of inundation at the mainland area by Biscayne Bay estimated by numerical simulations are, respectively, 22–24 % and 16–30 % larger on average than those generated by the linear addition by expansion and the simple linear addition methods, indicating a strong nonlinear interaction between storm surge and SLR. The population and property affected by the storm surge inundation estimated by numerical simulations differ up to 50–140 % from that estimated by two linear addition methods. Therefore, it is inappropriate to estimate the exacerbated magnitude and extent of storm surge flooding and affected population and property caused by SLR by using the linear addition methods. The strong nonlinear interaction between surge flooding and SLR at a specific location occurs at the initial stage of SLR when the water depth under an elevated sea level is less than 0.7 m, while the interaction becomes linear as the depth exceeds 0.7 m. 相似文献
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Nancy Soontiens Susan E. Allen Doug Latornell Kate Le Souëf Idalia Machuca Jean-Philippe Paquin 《大气与海洋》2016,54(1):1-21
The Strait of Georgia is a large, semi-enclosed body of water between Vancouver Island and the mainland of British Columbia connected to the Pacific Ocean via Juan de Fuca Strait at the south and Johnstone Strait at the north. During the winter months, coastal communities along the Strait of Georgia are at risk of flooding caused by storm surges, a natural hazard that can occur when a strong storm coincides with high tide. This investigation produces storm surge hindcasts using a three-dimensional numerical ocean model for the Strait of Georgia and the surrounding bodies of water (Juan de Fuca Strait, Puget Sound, and Johnstone Strait) collectively known as the Salish Sea. The numerical model employs the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean architecture in a regional configuration. The model is evaluated through comparisons of tidal elevation harmonics and storm surge with observations. Important forcing factors contributing to storm surges are assessed. It is shown that surges entering the domain from the Pacific Ocean make the most significant contribution to surge amplitude within the Strait of Georgia. Comparisons between simulations and high-resolution and low-resolution atmospheric forcing further emphasize that remote forcing is the dominant factor in surge amplitudes in this region. In addition, local wind patterns caused a slight increase in surge amplitude on the mainland side of the Strait of Georgia compared with Vancouver Island coastal areas during a major wind storm on 15 December 2006. Generally, surge amplitudes are found to be greater within the Strait of Georgia than in Juan de Fuca Strait. 相似文献
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风暴相对螺旋度是一个衡量对流风暴发展强度的物理量,所以对强对流天气的预报具有实际意义。通过提取2008-2010年3年天津地区153个降雨过程的多普勒天气雷达风场数据来计算了风暴相对螺旋度,然后将风暴相对螺旋度与从雷达反射率因子图中提取的风暴信息相融合,得到基于风暴相对螺旋度的降雨预报模型。经过2014年4月到8月天津地区59个降雨过程对本文所提出的降雨预报模型进行验证,结果表明本文提出的降雨预报模型的准确率达到61%,其中提前2小时预测降雨占41%,在2小时间以内预测降雨占59%。上述结果说明,风暴相对螺旋度在结合其他降雨特征后对降雨具有良好的预报效果。 相似文献
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The characteristics of storm surges obtained from sea level observations at four hydrometeorological stations in the North Caspian Sea for 2003–2017 are presented. The sea level that by 30 cm exceeds the monthly mean value at the analyzed point of the Caspian Sea was considered as a surge. In total, 370 surges were registered, 83% of them occurred during the cold season (September-April). The maximum surge height was 125 cm, the longest duration was 7 days. The most significant surges on Tyulenii Island were simulated with the operational hydrodynamic model of the sea level and currents of the Caspian Sea using atmospheric forcing from the COSMO model. The mean coefficient of correlation between the simulated and observed sea level is equal to 0.94. 相似文献
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径流-风暴潮相互作用可增大河口区风暴潮增水,增加风暴潮灾害风险。基于SCHISM模式建立了珠江河口风暴潮数值模型,以台风“山竹”为例,采用实测资料对模型计算结果进行验证,最高潮位相对误差在9%以内。设计了台风“山竹”实测径流与5年一遇洪水的对比试验,讨论了径流变化对河口风暴潮增水的影响,结果表明:河口口门站位风暴潮增水随径流量的增大而增大。径流增加对泗盛围、南沙等站位的风暴潮影响较大,在风暴潮增水达到最大值时影响最为显著。以径流动力作用为主的区域,当上游径流量增大时,对风暴潮增水起到负影响作用:如磨刀门水道,随着径流的增加,沿河道上溯的风暴潮增水逐渐减小,由灯笼山站3.22 m减小至马口站1.12 m。以潮汐动力作用为主的区域,当上游径流量增大时,对风暴潮增水起到正影响作用:如珠江干流,随着径流的增加,沿河道上溯的风暴潮增水逐渐增大,大虎站的最大增水值为3.44 m,中大站为4.24 m,从口门至后航道区域增大了0.8 m。 相似文献
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渤海西岸致灾风暴潮的统计预报模型 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
渤海西岸是风暴潮灾害多发区,1990年代以后发生几率和灾害损失明显增加。利用气象科学和海洋水文科学相结合的方法,依据黄骅港潮汐资料,对发生在渤海西岸的风暴潮进行统计分析。结果表明,台风和强冷空气配合气旋是造成渤海西岸风暴潮的主要天气系统,偏东大风增水和天文潮叠加是造成风暴潮的直接因素;风暴潮和天文潮汐都有半日潮现象。在此基础上,建立了渤海西岸风暴潮预报模型,通过台风或冷空气配合气旋影响时增水值的计算,结合天文潮汐资料,做出最高潮位预报。应用该预报方法对渤海西岸发生的7次风暴潮进行回报,预报值与实测值基本相当,是基层台站较实用的预报方法。 相似文献