Q矢量及其在天气诊断分析中应用研究的进展

对Ｑ矢量的理论研究的动态及其主要应用结果作了综合评述,并对该领域的研究前景作了一定的展望。     

陆面过程研究的进展

文中首先阐述陆面过程研究的必要性和复杂性。然后，对陆面过程研究的任务和内容作了较详细的说明，进而对陆面过程研究的进展现状和未来发展方向作了讨论。     

年代际气候变率问题的研究

对年代际气候变率的研究工作和主要结果作了综合评述，并对该领域的研究前景作了一定的阐述。     

风暴轴的研究

从风暴轴的三维结构、时间演变、维持机制及其与平均气流间的相互作用等方面出发,对风暴轴的研究动态和主要结构作了评述,并对该领域的研究前景作了一定的展望 。     

长春市逆温层及其对大气污染的影响分析

本文根据长春市气象站１９９３～１９９５年每日０７时和１９时的高空观测资料，对有关送温层的数据作了统计和研究，并在此基础上对长春市上空边界层内逆温分布的类型和变化规律作了分析论证，这对城市大气污染规律的研究具有重要意义。     

最大熵原理对大气状态的约束

本文对分布函数概念,对已经找到的重要的气象中的分布函数,对如何从熵原理去理解它们作了综合介绍.文中还对如何将此用于数值天气预告、气候变迁研究作了分析.     

大气非平衡运动的演变与跳跃式暴雨过程

对１９９４年６月２４￣２６日长江中上游地区出现的一次跳跃式暴雨过程作了诊断研究，结果指出，对流层高层地转不平衡运动及低空急流的变化是造成降水系统生消演变的重要因素，并对地面天气系统的发生发展作了较详细的分析研究。     

21世纪西北太平洋台风变化预估

对近年多个气候模式考虑不同的人类排放情景作了总结,并对21世纪西北太平洋台风变化作了预估。研究表明,集成多个气候模式考虑人类排放情景,预估到21世纪后期,西北太平洋年总编号台风数可能减少,但强台风数及其降水和风速可能增强。需要强调的是,台风的长期预估是极其困难的,存在极大的不确定性,有待作更深入的研究。     

热带气旋强度变化的cliper预报方案

—、前言对于热带气旋强度变化和台风的发生发展,前人已作了大量的分析和研究。但是,对于台风和热带气旋强度变化的客观预报方祛,研究得并不多。在这方面做得较早的有RL·Elsbrry等人,他们建立了预报台风和热带气旋强度的24、48和72小时变化的回归方程。近几年来林有任和笔者分别用统计和动力统计的方法对台风和热带气旋的强度变化的预报作了研究,并得到了客观预报方程。本文将用气候持续性方案对台风和热带气旋的强度变化作一些研究分析。     

新疆主要气象灾害研究的进展

对新疆主要气象灾害研究的进展情况，分别作了综述和评价。     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

A review of recent advances in research on Asian monsoon in China

This paper reviews briefly advances in recent research on monsoon by Chinese scholars, including primarily： （1） the establishment of various monsoon indices. In particular, the standardized dynamic seasonal variability index of the monsoon can delimit the geographical distribution of global monsoon systems and determine quantitatively the date of abrupt change in circulation. （2） The provision of three driving forces for the generation of monsoon. （3） The revelation of the heating-pump action of the Tibetan Plateau, which strengthens southerlies in the southern and southeastern periphery of the Plateau and results in a strong rainfall center from the northern Bay of Bengal （BOB） to the Plateau itself. （4） Clarification of the initial onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon （ASM） in the BOB east of 90°E, Indochina Peninsula （ICP） and the South China Sea, of which the rapid northward progression of tropical convection in the Sumatra and the rapid westward movement of the South Asia High to the Indochina Peninsula are the earliest signs. （5） The provision of an integrated mechanism for the onset of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM）, which emphasizes the integrated impact of sensible heat over Indian Peninsula, the warm advection of the Tibetan Plateau and the sensible heat and latent heat over the Indochina Peninsula on the one hand, and the seasonal phase-lock effect of the northward propagation of low frequency oscillation on the other. （6） The revelation of the ＂planetary-scale moisture transport large-value band＂ from the Southern Hemisphere through to the Asian monsoon region and into the North Pacific, which is converged by several large-scale moisture transport belts in the Asian-Australian monsoon regions and whose variation influences directly the temporal and spatial distribution of summer rainfall in China. （7） Presenting the features of the seasonal advance of the EASM, the propagation of intraseasonal oscillation, and their relationship with rainfall in Ch     

Model simulations of rainout and washout from a warm stratiform cloud

A one-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model with parameterized microphysics is used to investigate the processes which control the rainout and washout of soluble gases from warm, precipitating stratiform clouds. Calculations are presented simulating the distributions of soluble species within and below the cloud layer and in the precipitating raindrops as a function of time and species' solubility. Our calculations indicate that for species with low solubility, wet removal processes are relatively slow and thus do not significantly affect the species' gas-phase abundance. As a result, the removal of low-solubility species by rainout and washout is controlled by thermodynamic processes with the concentration of the species in cloud and rainwater largely determined by the species' solubility. For highly soluble species on the other hand, dissolution into cloud droplets and removal in rain is quite rapid and the abundance of highly soluble species within and below the cloud falls rapidly as soon as the precipitation begins. Because of this rapid decrease in concentration, we find that for highly soluble species: concentrations in cloud droplets near the cloud base can exceed that of raindrops by factors of 2 to 10; washout can dominate over rainout as a removal mechanism; and that, after an extended period of rainfall, the rate of removal becomes independent of the microphysical properties and rainfall rate of the cloud and is controlled by the rate of transport of material into the precipitating column by horizontal advection.     

Field Experimental Investigations on the Fe(II)- and Fe(III)-Content in Cloudwater Samples

The Fe(II)/Fe(III)-partition in cloudwater samples collected during two field campaigns is evaluated. It turned out that the simultaneous occurrence of complexing and reducing substances in the atmosphere and the cloud processing increase the solubility of iron compounds present in aerosol particles. A correlation between the concentration of iron(II) in the liquid phase and the intensity of the solar irradiation was observed for most of the cloudwater samples. This could be due to the fact that both the photochemical reduction of the iron(III) complexes and the photochemical reductive dissolution of iron(III)(hydr)oxides are depending on the pH-value. Iron(II) seems to be oxidised back to iron(III) preferably by hydrogen peroxide during the night. Positive correlations were received e.g. between the concentration of dissolved iron and the concentration of oxalate and between the percentage of iron(III) and the concentration of hydrogen peroxide. A negative correlation was found e.g. between the concentration of dissolved iron and the pH-value. The uncertainty of the whole process of sampling and analysis was investigated and the conformity of the results was satisfying considering the sometimes difficult conditions during a field campaign.     

我国霾研究进展与公共安全影响应对*

在给出霾的定义、特征及空间分布的基础上,介绍了霾的物理学特性、化学特性及气象学研究的最新进展,分析了霾对公共卫生健康、交通安全的影响, 提出了科学编制防御规划、统筹建立协调机制、有效推进减霾行动、提供相应科技支撑、完善相关政策法规等对策建议,对于政府相关部门制定霾天气应对和防治措施具有积极的决策参考作用,减少或减轻霾对经济社会发展和人体健康带来的损害威胁。     

钉钉机器人在气象设备和网络监控中的应用

为保证各类气象设备和网络稳定运行,出现故障及时通知到人,针对目前气象设备监视和报警存在的问题,设计开发气象设备及网络监控报警软件,出现异常情况通过钉钉机器人开放接口发送报警信息到手机和电脑钉钉群,提醒业务人员及时处理故障,实现气象设备、网络情况自动监控,自动报警功能。通过业务运行表明,该软件在气象设备及网络监控业务中能提高发现设备和网络故障的时效,自动化程度高,缩短了维护人员处理故障的时效性,是钉钉机器人在气象设备和网络监测报警应用的积极探索。     

人工影响天气弹药储运安全保障探讨

人工影响天气弹药仓储、运输困难严重影响安全作业。以湖南省人工影响天气弹药储运为例,从现代管理技术和机制上探讨人工影响天气弹药储运安全保障措施。结果表明,采用分区划片、区域保障的仓储原则可以解决炮弹火箭弹禁止混存的问题;通过物联网系统建设实现弹药信息化科学管理,通过构建政府主导、军地协同、部门落实的人工影响天气弹药安全保障体系,能适应政府和军区改革。新形势下军地协同保障弹药储运促进了人工影响天气事业的安全发展。     

广西1999年12月严重霜冻与典型霜冻重年的环流对比分析

通过对1999年12月广西严重霜冻天气同期500hPa高度场和海平面气压场特征及前期500 hPa高度的相关场分析,得到北半球中高纬度槽脊的位置与强度,地面大陆冷高压强弱,是影响广西12月霜冻的主要环流形势;当年1月、9月极涡强度、位置,北美高压脊强度,及黑海附近低槽强弱,是影响广西12月霜冻天气重、轻的重要因子。     

THE EFFECTS OF EXTERNAL FORCING,DISSIPATION AND NONLINEARITY ON THE SOLUTIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC EQUATIONS

Based on the primitive equations of the atmosphere,we study the effects of external forcing.dissipation and nonlinearity on the solutions of stationary motion and non-stationary motion.Theresults show that the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the forced dissipative nonlinear system isessentially different from that of the adiabatic non-dissipative system,the adiabatic dissipativesystem,the diabatic non-dissipative system and the diabatic dissipative linear system,and that thejoint action of external forcing,dissipation and nonlinearity is the source of multiple equilibria.From this we can conclude that the important actions of diabatic heating and dissipation must beconsidered in the models of the long-term weather and the climate.     

1961—2018年中国主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因

枯季是水旱、水生态和水资源问题的重要时期,枯季径流的变化直接影响着河流生态和流域水资源管理。基于中国网格气象数据和主要江河枯季径流资料,初步分析了1961—2018年中国气候变化趋势和主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因。结果表明,全国枯季平均气温显著上升,北方地区升温较早,南方地区2001—2018年升温明显。全国约84%的地区枯季降水有增加趋势,其中约42.2%的地区增加显著;全国枯季降水呈现西北、东北和东南显著增加,中部变化不显著格局。黄河中游和海河枯季径流下降显著,2001—2018年黄河中游枯季径流较1961—1980年减少了34%,同时期海河流域枯季径流量减少幅度均超过80%;松花江上游和长江流域枯季径流增加显著,2001—2018年松花江上游枯季径流量增加了约67%,长江流域枯季径流量增加了约16%。枯季降水增加主导了松花江上游、辽河、淮河、长江以及珠江枯季径流的增加;气温的显著上升对黄河中游和海河等地枯季径流有显著负向作用;人类活动是松花江中游、黄河和海河枯季径流下降的主要影响因素。尽管全国枯季降水的增加对于缓解流域生态和水资源问题有积极作用,但人类活动和气温显著上升加速了水资源的消耗,加大了流域水资源脆弱性。