2002年松花江流凌日期偏早的原因分析

1引言每年秋末冬初,在江河封冻之前,江面有一段流冰时间,表现为大小不一的冰花在江面上流动,称为流凌。流凌期间虽短,但对船只威胁却很大,因为流动的冰花粘附在船只上,越积越多,将使船行受阻,进而可能导致船只无法及时返航,有被冻在江中的危险。因此,做好流凌日期的预报服务至关重要。松花江的流凌日期多年平均为11月10日。比该日期出现时间晚2～4d的定义为流凌偏晚,早2～4d的定义为偏早,偏晚或偏早5d以上的称之为特晚或特早。20世纪90年代以来,在全球气候转暖的大背景下,黑龙江省气温相应也较高,因此多为数年份流凌日期都较常年偏晚,但2002…     

松花江流凌预报自动化系统

利用５００ｈＰａ高度场５个相关区作为预报因子,建立流凌预报模型,根据此模型制作松花江流凌预报自动化系统,实现流凌专业预报自动化。     

基于气象要素的黄河宁夏段流凌密度预报模型

历史上,黄河宁夏段曾多次发生漫滩甚至决堤淹田等重大气象衍生次生灾害,带来严重损失,且大多发生在封河或开河过程中,流凌密度是判断开、封河的重要指标。本研究利用黄河宁夏段2008—2015年气象水文资料,对流凌密度与其前3~7天的气象要素进行多元线性回归和单要素曲线模拟,结果表明:利用气象要素资料开展流凌密度定量化预报可行,模型拟合度较高,可实现基于数值天气预报的黄河凌汛流凌密度预报业务。     

松花江段哈尔滨站秋季流凌气候特征和预报指标研究

利用2010-2014年11月1-25日的日平均气温、日最低气温和相关的天气图资料,对松花江流凌天气进行了分析,总结出松花江段哈尔滨站的流凌预报指标和流凌出现的平均日期以及易出现流凌的三种天气学模型,对今后做流凌预报有很实用的参考作用。     

黄河乌海段凌汛预报系统

利用1992—2004年凌汛期间的凌汛情况及气温、冻土等有关气象资料,分析了黄河乌海段凌汛的特点及凌灾的原因,建立了凌汛预报方程,研制了“黄河乌海段凌汛预报系统”,实现了对黄河乌海段的流凌时间及开、封河时间的预报。     

利用海温作山东半岛气温,降水预报的业务系统

通过分析太平洋海温与山东半岛气温和降水的相关性，找出了两者相关关系中的一些特点。用于制做月平均气温和月降水量的预报系统，在预报业务中取得了很好的预报效果和经济效益。     

广西原料蔗产量大气环流因子预报模式研究

本文分析了我区代表性的１５家糖厂及７个地区、３个市的原料蔗产量与大气环流因子的关系，并同时分析的大气环充因子与甘蔗产量关键期主要气象因子之间的关系，建立了有关糖厂、地的甘蔗产量大气环流因子预报模式，为进行原料蔗产量预报增加了一种新的方法。     

长春市空气污染潜势预报的统计模型研究

通过分析TSP污染指数与气象条件的关系，特别是一些非线性关系，建立了长春市空气污染潜势预报统计模型，借助T106及日本数值预报产品进行试报，效果较为理想。     

海岛测风站资料分析及其在航线预报服务中的应用

运用舟山海岛自动测风站网一期工程的测风站资料详细分析了舟山海域各航线风力局地性特征，并探讨了航线风力预报的制作思路。实践表明：上述研究对于加强海上航运安全、方便海岛居民日常生活、提高航运经济社会效益等方面具有非常重要的作用。     

河南省夏玉米产量预报方法

利用河南省农业气象产量预报业务系(WAPFOS)，分析了夏玉米产量与光照、降水、气温等影响因子的关系，结果表明，旬降水量、旬日照时数和旬平均气温与夏玉米产量关系密切，是直接影响产量的重要因素。在此基础上，建立了预报模型。     

Geometric and aerodynamic roughness of sea ice

The aerodynamic drag of Arctic sea ice is calculated using surface data, measured by an airborne laser altimeter and a digital camera in the marginal ice zone of Fram Strait. The influence of the surface morphology on the momentum transfer under neutral thermal stratification in the atmospheric boundary layer is derived with the aid of model concepts, based on the partitioning of the surface drag into a form drag and a skin drag. The drag partitioning concept pays attention to the probability density functions of the geometric surface parameters. We found for the marginal ice zone that the form drag, caused by floe edges, can amount to 140% of the skin drag, while the effect of pressure ridges never exceeded 40%. Due to the narrow spacing of obstacles, the skin drag is significantly reduced by shadowing effects on the leeward side of floe edges. For practical purposes, the fractional sea-ice coverage can be used to parameterize the drag coefficientC _dn, related to the 10 m-wind. C _dnincreases from 1.2 · 10^-3 over open water to 2.8 · 10^-3 for 55% ice coverage and decreases to 1.5 · 10^-3 for 100% ice coverage.Aircraft turbulence measurements are used to compare the model values of C _dnwith measureents. The correlation between measured and modelled drag coefficients results in r ² = 0.91, where r is the correlation coefficient.     

Ice drift in Southern Baffin Bay and Davis Strait: Research note

Abstract

Using satellite pictures of Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, ice‐floes were tracked in order to give weekly surface velocities for 1978–1979. The approximate location of the edge of the ice sheet was also determined.

In winter the direction of travel was mainly southward in Davis Strait then, as the summer approached, the edge of the ice sheet retreated northward and floe motion became less clearly defined — even going north on occasion in Baffin Bay.

Near shore speeds along Baffin Island exceeded 50 cm s^‐1 in Davis Strait during November and February. Typical values in the winter/spring period were 10–15 cm s^‐1 between Davis Strait and Hudson Strait. Wind records at nearby shore stations showed directions to be mainly from the northwest, roughly parallel to the Baffin Island coastline.

The study confirms the usefulness of satellite pictures as a data source for modelling surface ice movement and for selecting navigation routes in these northern waters.     

Ice‐band characteristics of the Antarctic seasonal ice zone observed using MOS MESSR images

Abstract

Ice‐band characteristics for the region off East Queen Maud Land in Antarctica were examined and their relationship with the wind conditions was assessed using a large number of Marine Observation Satellite (MOS) Multispectral Electronic Self Scanning Radiometer (MESSR) images received at Syowa Station during the period 1989–93. Analyses from 43 examples of bands captured from August to December suggest that ice‐band formation and band scale are affected by both wind speed and direction over approximately the preceding four days (defined as the effective wind). Ice‐band width and spacing are significantly correlated with the effective wind speed and the maximum wind speed during that period. The long axis of ice bands tends to be oriented at 70°‐90° (mean of 75°) to the right of the effective wind direction. The band scales decrease from winter (August) to summer (December) with typical band spacing of 4–6 km in winter and 1–2 km in summer. This seems to be primarily due to a decrease in ice floe size and partly due to a decrease in the effective wind speed from winter to summer. Band scale decreases from the ice interior to the ice edge under conditions of off‐ice winds.     

Atmospheric Response To Spatial Variations In Concentration And Size Of Polynyas In The Southern Ocean Sea-Ice Zone

Although it is well known that sea-ice regions are important components of the Earth's climate system, the exchanges of energy between ocean, ice and atmosphere are not well understood. The majority of past observational and modelling studies of atmosphere-surface interactions over sea-ice regions were primarily concerned with airflow over a single, isolated area of open water. The more realistic situations of multiple polynyas within a sea-ice field and different areal concentrations of sea ice were studied here. Spatial structure of the atmospheric boundary layer in response to this surface was simulated using a high-resolution numerical model. A sea-ice concentration of 80%, typical of the Southern Ocean sea-ice zone, was maintained within a 100-km wide domain. The effects of three polynya characteristics were assessed: their horizontal extent; local concentration of sea ice (LCI); and their arrangement with ice floes. Over polynyas of all sizes distinct plumes of upward heat flux, their width and height closely linked to polynya width, resulted in mixed layers 600 to 1000 m deep over and downwind of the polynyas, their depth increasing with polynya width. Mean surface heat flux (MSHF) increased with size in polynyas less than 30 km wide. The air-to-ice MSHF over the first 10 km of sea-ice downwind of each polynya and the domain-average surface heat flux increased linearly with polynya width. Turbulent kinetic energy plumes occurred over all polynyas, their heights and widths increasing with polynya widths. Downward flux of high momentum air in the plumes caused increased wind speeds over polynyas in the layer from about 300–1000 m above the surface, the depth varying directly with polynya width. MSHFs decreased as LCIs increased. The arrangement of polynyas had relatively little effect on the overall depth of the modified layer but did influence the magnitude and spatial structure of vertical heat transfer. In the two-polynya case the MSHF over the polynyas was larger when they were closer together. Although the MSHF over the sea ice between the polynyas decreased in magnitude as their separation increased, the percentage of the polynya-to-air heat recaptured by this ice floe increased fivefold.     

黄河下游凌情变化的气象成因分析

概述黄河下游凌汛,分析了气温时空差异与凌汛形成和凌情变化的关系,根据冬季气温变化过程特点,并结合1968－1969年度凌汛实例,分析讨论了气温变化过程对凌情的影响。     

贺兰山地区大气冰核浓度的测量及初步分析

根据 1 994年在银川和阿拉善左旗观测得到的冰核资料 ,给出了两地不同天气条件下的大气冰核浓度 ,分析并讨论了冰核浓度与风、降水、天空状况等的关系 ,给出了飞机在空中测量冰核的结果。     

北极海冰面积与我国春季平均气温的联系特征

本文诊断分析了北极海冰面积、赤道中东太平洋海温与我国春季气温的联系。结果表明，北极海冰面积的年际和年代际变化对我国春季气温有较明显的影响，而赤道中东太平洋海温变化的影响则相对较弱。利用前期的海冰距平场可对2000年春季气温做出成功的趋势预测。