温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫作用

对GOALS4 .0海 陆 气耦合模式的相关部分进行了改进 ,主要改进包括温室气体的扩充和硫酸盐气溶胶“显式”方案的引入 ,并引入 2 0世纪温室气体的实际浓度变化以及硫循环模式模拟的硫酸盐气溶胶的三维全球浓度分布 ,模拟了温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶造成的辐射强迫的空间分布和时间变化。全球平均的温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫分别为 2 .17W /m2 和 - 0 .2 9W /m2 ;温室气体造成的辐射强迫在空间上呈现明显的纬向结构 ,最大值 (大于 2 .5W/m2 )和最小值 (小于 1W /m2 )分别位于副热带和两极地区 ,在北半球主要工业区硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫绝对值接近温室气体的辐射强迫值 (大于 - 2 .0W /m2 )。     

Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model

 The realism of the Hadley Centre’s coupled climate model (HadCM2) is evaluated in terms of its simulation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a major natural mode of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere that is currently the subject of considerable scientific interest. During 1400 y of a control integration with present-day radiative forcing levels, HadCM2 exhibits a realistic NAO associated with spatial patterns of sea level pressure, synoptic activity, temperature and precipitation anomalies that are very similar to those observed. Spatially, the main model deficiency is that the simulated NAO has a teleconnection with the North Pacific that is stronger than observed. In a temporal sense the simulation is compatible with the observations if the recent observed trend (from low values in the 1960s to high values in the early 1990s) in the winter NAO index (the pressure difference between Gibraltar and Iceland) is ignored. This recent trend is, however, outside the range of variability simulated by the control integration of HadCM2, implying that either the model is deficient or that external forcing is responsible for the variation. It is shown, by analysing two ensembles, each of four HadCM2 integrations that were forced with historic and possible future changes in greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol concentrations, that a small part of the recent observed variation may be a result of anthropogenic forcing. If so, then the HadCM2 experiments indicate that the anthropogenic effect should reverse early next century, weakening the winter pressure gradient between Gibraltar and Iceland. Even combining this anthropogenic forcing and internal variability cannot explain all of the recent observed variations, indicating either some model deficiency or that some other external forcing is partly responsible. Received: 20 August 1998 / Accepted: 12 May 1999     

The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th Century winter drying of the Mediterranean region

The roles of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability in causing the Mediterranean region’s late 20th Century extended winter drying trend are examined using 19 coupled models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. The observed drying was influenced by the robust positive trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the 1960s to the 1990s. Model simulations and observations are used to assess the probable relative roles of radiative forcing, and internal variability in explaining the circulation trend that drove much of the precipitation change. Using the multi-model ensemble we assess how well the models can produce multidecadal trends of realistic magnitude, and apply signal-to-noise maximizing EOF analysis to obtain a best estimate of the models’ (mean) sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation responses to changes in radiative forcing. The observed SLP and Mediterranean precipitation fields are regressed onto the timeseries associated with the models’ externally forced pattern and the implied linear trends in both fields between 1960 and 1999 are calculated. It is concluded that the radiatively forced trends are a small fraction of the total observed trends. Instead it is argued that the robust trends in the observed NAO and Mediterranean rainfall during this period were largely due to multidecadal internal variability with a small contribution from the external forcing. Differences between the observed and NAO-associated precipitation trends are consistent with those expected as a response to radiative forcing. The radiatively forced trends in circulation and precipitation are expected to strengthen in the current century and this study highlights the importance of their contribution to future precipitation changes in the region.     

气候变化的归因与预估模拟研究

本文总结了近五年来中国科学院大气物理研究所在气候变暖的归因模拟与预估研究上的主要进展。研究表明,利用海温、太阳辐射和温室气体等实际强迫因子驱动大气环流模式,能够较为合理地模拟全球平均地表气温在20世纪的演变,但是难以模拟出包括北大西洋涛动／北极涛动和南极涛动在内的高纬度环流的长期变化趋势。利用温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶等“历史资料”驱动气候系统模式,能够较好地模拟出20世纪后期的全球增暖,但如果要再现20世纪前期(1940年代)的变暖,还需同时考虑太阳辐射等自然外强迫因子。20世纪中国气温演变的耦合模式模拟技巧,较之全球平均情况要低;中国气候在1920年代的变暖机理目前尚不清楚。对于近50年中国东部地区“南冷北暖”、“南涝北旱”的气候变化,基于大气环流模式特别是区域气候模式的数值试验表明,夏季硫酸盐气溶胶的负辐射效应超过了温室气体的增暖效应,从而对变冷产生贡献。但现有的数值模拟证据,不足以说明气溶胶增加对“南涝北旱”型降水异常有贡献。20世纪中期以来,青藏高原主体存在明显增温趋势,温室气体浓度的增加对这种增暖有显著贡献。多模式集合预估的未来气候变化表明,21世纪全球平均温度将继续增暖,增温幅度因不同排放情景而异;中国大陆年均表面气温的增暖与全球同步,但增幅在东北、西部和华中地区较大,冬季升温幅度高于夏季、日最低温度升幅要强于日最高温度;全球增暖有可能对我国中东部植被的地理分布产生影响。伴随温室气体增加所导致的夏季平均温度升高,极端温度事件增多;在更暖的气候背景下,中国大部分地区总降水将增多,极端降水强度加大且更频繁发生,极端降水占总降水的比例也将增大。全球增暖有可能令大洋热盐环流减弱,但是减弱的幅度因模式而异。全球增暖可能不是导致北太平洋副热带－热带经圈环流自20世纪70年代以来变弱的原因。文章同时指出了模式预估结果中存在的不确定性。     

Competition of NAO regime changes and increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols with respect to Arctic climate projections

Regional magnitudes and patterns of Arctic winter climate changes in consequence of regime changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed using a regional atmospheric climate model. The regional model has been driven with data of positive and negative NAO phases from a control simulation as well as from a time-dependent greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario simulation. Both global model simulations include a quite realistic interannual variability of the NAO with pronounced decadal regime changes and no or rather weak long-term NAO trends. The results indicate that the effects of NAO regime changes on Arctic winter temperatures and precipitation are regionally significant over most of northwestern Eurasia and parts of Greenland. In this regard, mean winter temperature variations of up to 6 K may occur over northern Europe. Precipitation and synoptic variability are also regionally modified by NAO regime changes, but not as significantly as temperatures. However, the climate changes associated with the NAO are in some regions clearly stronger than those attributed to enhanced greenhouse gases and aerosols, indicating that projected global changes of the atmospheric composition and internal circulation changes are competing with each other in their importance for the Arctic climate evolution in the near future. The knowledge of the future NAO trend on decadal and longer time scales appears to be vitally important in terms of a regional assessment of climate scenarios for the Arctic.     

Simulating the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: the roles of internal variability and greenhouse gas forcing

Analysis of simulations with seven coupled climate models demonstrates that the observed variations in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), particularly the increase from the 1960s to the 1990s, are not compatible with either the internally generated variability nor the response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing simulated by these models. The observed NAO record can be explained by a combination of internal variability and greenhouse gas forcing, though only by the models that simulate the strongest variability and the strongest response. These models simulate inter-annual variability of the NAO index that is significantly greater than that observed, and can no longer explain the observed record if the simulated NAO indices are scaled so that they have the same high-frequency variance as that observed. It is likely, therefore, that other external forcings also contributed to the observed NAO index increase, unless the climate models are deficient in their simulation of inter-decadal NAO variability or their simulation of the response to greenhouse gas forcing. These conclusions are based on a comprehensive analysis of the control runs and transient greenhouse-gas-forced simulations of the seven climate models. The simulations of mean winter circulation and its pattern of inter-annual variability are very similar to the observations in the Atlantic half of the Northern Hemisphere. The winter atmospheric circulation response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing shows little inter-model similarity at the regional scale, and the NAO response is model-dependent and sensitive to the index used to measure it. At the largest scales, however, sea level pressure decreases over the Arctic Ocean in all models and increases over the Mediterranean Sea in six of the seven models, so that there is an increase of the NAO in all models when measured using a pattern-based index.     

A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate to the twenty-first century

 The potential climatic consequences of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and sulfate aerosol loading are investigated for the years 1900 to 2100 based on five simulations with the CCCma coupled climate model. The five simulations comprise a control experiment without change in GHG or aerosol amount, three independent simulations with increasing GHG and aerosol forcing, and a simulation with increasing GHG forcing only. Climate warming accelerates from the present with global mean temperatures simulated to increase by 1.7 °C to the year 2050 and by a further 2.7 °C by the year 2100. The warming is non-uniform as to hemisphere, season, and underlying surface. Changes in interannual variability of temperature show considerable structure and seasonal dependence. The effect of the comparatively localized negative radiative forcing associated with the aerosol is to retard and reduce the warming by about 0.9 °C at 2050 and 1.2 °C at 2100. Its primary effect on temperature is to counteract the global pattern of GHG-induced warming and only secondarily to affect local temperatures suggesting that the first order transient climate response of the system is determined by feedback processes and only secondarily by the local pattern of radiative forcing. The warming is accompanied by a more active hydrological cycle with increases in precipitation and evaporation rates that are delayed by comparison with temperature increases. There is an “El Nino-like” shift in precipitation and an overall increase in the interannual variability of precipitation. The effect of the aerosol forcing is again primarily to delay and counteract the GHG-induced increase. Decreases in soil moisture are common but regionally dependent and interannual variability changes show considerable structure. Snow cover and sea-ice retreat. A PNA-like anomaly in mean sea-level pressure with an enhanced Aleutian low in northern winter is associated with the tropical shift in precipitation regime. The interannual variability of mean sea-level pressure generally decreases with largest decreases in the tropical Indian ocean region. Changes to the ocean thermal structure are associated with a spin-down of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation together with a decrease in its variability. The effect of aerosol forcing, although modest, differs from that for most other quantities in that it does not act primarily to counteract the GHG forcing effect. The barotropic stream function in the ocean exhibits modest change in the north Pacific but accelerating changes in much of the Southern Ocean and particularly in the north Atlantic where the gyre spins down in conjunction with the decrease in the thermohaline circulation. The results differ in non-trivial ways from earlier equilibrium 2 × CO₂ results with the CCCma model as a consequence of the coupling to a fully three-dimensional ocean model and the evolving nature of the forcing. Received: 24 September 1998 / Accepted: 8 October 1999     

Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios

The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. This constitutes a new framework in which the AMOC response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. The main mechanisms responsible for the AMOC variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. At high frequencies, the AMOC is directly responding to local changes in the Ekman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. At low frequencies, the AMOC is largely controlled by convection activity south of Greenland. Again, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. Positive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1?year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive NAO-like pattern. Finally, the sensitivity of the AMOC to three different forcing factors is investigated. The major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. Starting in the Industrial Era and continuing in the future scenarios, the AMOC experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. Also, a weak but significant AMOC strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. In contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the AMOC is observed. Indeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the Nordic Seas, with a marginal contribution to the AMOC variability in the ECHO-G runs.     

RegCM3引入气溶胶间接气候效应模拟效果对比

利用2006年区域气候模式RegCM3和Streets气溶胶排放源清单,在原模式中引入间接气候效应模块,改进云降水方案,对硫酸盐气溶胶的时空分布、辐射强迫效应进行了模拟研究。结果表明：硫酸盐气溶胶辐射强迫有明显季节变化;直接效应使地表温度降低,冬春季大值区出现在四川盆地,夏季大值区出现在华北平原。对降水的影响,主要表现在西南—东北水汽输送带上降水减少;其间接气候效应主要表现在使南方地区温度上升、北方地区温度下降;珠江流域和黄河流域降水减少,长江流域和东北地区降水增加。总的来说,直接效应大于间接效应。     

Greenhouse-gas versus aerosol forcing and African climate response

There are many indicators that human activity may change climate conditions all around the globe through emissions of greenhouse gases. In addition, aerosol particles are emitted from various natural and anthropogenic sources. One important source of aerosols arises from biomass burning, particularly in low latitudes where shifting cultivation and land degradation lead to enhanced aerosol burden. In this study the counteracting effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols on African climate are compared using climate model experiments with fully interactive aerosols from different sources. The consideration of aerosol emissions induces a remarkable decrease in short-wave solar irradiation near the surface, especially in winter and autumn in tropical West Africa and the Congo Basin where biomass burning is mainly prevailing. This directly leads to a modification of the surface energy budget with reduced sensible heat fluxes. As a consequence, temperature decreases, compensating the strong warming signal due to enhanced trace gas concentrations. While precipitation in tropical Africa is less sensitive to the greenhouse warming, it tends to decrease, if the effect of aerosols from biomass burning is taken into account. This is partly due to the local impact of enhanced aerosol burden and partly to modifications of the large-scale monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere, usually lagging behind the season with maximum aerosol emissions. In the model equilibrium experiments, the greenhouse gas impact on temperature stands out from internal variability at various time scales from daily to decadaland the same holds for precipitation under the additional aerosol forcing. Greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit an opposite effect on daily temperature extremes, resulting in an compensation of the individual responses under the combined forcing. In terms of precipitation, daily extreme events tend to be reduced under aerosol forcing, particularly over the tropical Atlantic and the Congo basin. These results suggest that the simulation of the multiple aerosol effects from anthropogenic sources represents an important factor in tropical climate change, hence, requiring more attention in climate modelling attempts.     

Numerical Simulation of Global Temperature Change during the 20th Century with the IAP／LASG GOALS Model

The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations, including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11℃ over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.     

Impact of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Diurnal Temperature Range in January in Eastern China

This study investigates the changes in January diurnal temperature range(DTR) in China during 1961-2000.The observed DTR changes during 1981-2000 relative to 1961-80 are first analyzed based on the daily temperature data at 546 weather stations.These observed DTR changes are classified into six cases depending on the changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures,and then the occurrence frequency and magnitude of DTR change in each case are presented.Three transient simulations are then performed to understand the impact of greenhouse gases(GHGs) and aerosol direct forcing on DTR change:one without anthropogenic radiative forcing,one with anthropogenic GHGs,and another one with the combined forcing of GHGs and five species of anthropogenic aerosols.The predicted daily DTR changes during the years 1981-2000 are also classified into six cases and are compared with the observations.Results show that the previously proposed reason for DTR reduction,a stronger nocturnal warming than a daytime warming,explains only 19.8%of the observed DTR reduction days.DTR reductions are found to generally occur in northeastern China,coinciding with significant regional warming.The simulation with GHG forcing alone reproduces this type of DTR reduction with an occurrence frequency of 32.9%,which is larger than the observed value.Aerosol direct forcing reduces DTR mainly by daytime cooling.Consideration of aerosol cooling improves the simulation of occurrence frequencies of different types of DTR changes as compared to the simulation with GHGs alone,but it cannot improve the prediction of the magnitude of DTR changes.     

A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the twentieth century

 The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) global coupled model is used to investigate the potential climate effects of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and changes in sulfate aerosol loadings. The forcing scenario adopted closely resembles that of Mitchell et al. for both the greenhouse gas and aerosol components. Its implementation in the model and the resulting changes in forcing are described. Five simulations of 200 years in length, nominally for the years 1900 to 2100, are available for analysis. They consist of a control simulation without change in forcing, three independent simulations with the same greenhouse gas and aerosol changes, and a single simulation with greenhouse gas only forcing. Simulations of the evolution of temperature and precipitation from 1900 to the present are compared with available observations. Temperature and precipitation are primary climate variables with reasonable temporal and spatial coverage in the observational record for the period. The simulation of potential climate change from the present to the end of the twenty-first century, based on projected GHG and aerosol forcing changes, is discussed in a companion paper. For the historical period dealt with here, the GHG and aerosol forcing has changed relatively little compared to the forcing changes projected to the end of the twenty-first century. Nevertheless, the forced climate signal for temperature in the model is reasonably consistent with the observed global mean temperature from the instrumental record. This is true also for the trend in zonally averaged temperature as a function of latitude and for some aspects of the geographical and regional distributions of temperature. Despite the modest change in overall forcing, the difference between GHG+aerosol and GHG-only forcing is discernible in the temperature response for this period. Changes in precipitation, on the other hand, are much less evident in both the instrumental and simulated record. There is an apparent increasing trend in average precipitation in both the observations and the model results over that part of the land for which observations are available. Regional and geographical changes and trends (which are less affected by sampling considerations), if they exist, are masked by the large natural variability of precipitation in both model and observations. Received: 24 September 1998 / Accepted: 8 October 1999     

Critical influence of the pattern of Tropical Ocean warming on remote climate trends

Evidence is presented that the recent trend patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over the land masses surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean (North America, Greenland, Europe, and North Africa) have been strongly influenced by the warming pattern of the tropical oceans. The current generation of atmosphere–ocean coupled climate models with prescribed radiative forcing changes generally do not capture these regional trend patterns. On the other hand, even uncoupled atmospheric models without the prescribed radiative forcing changes, but with the observed oceanic warming specified only in the tropics, are more successful in this regard. The tropical oceanic warming pattern is poorly represented in the coupled simulations. Our analysis points to model error rather than unpredictable climate noise as a major cause of this discrepancy with respect to the observed trends. This tropical error needs to be reduced to increase confidence in regional climate change projections around the globe, and to formulate better societal responses to projected changes in high-impact phenomena such as droughts and wet spells.     

Why Is the Climate Forcing of Sulfate Aerosols So Uncertain?

l. IntroductionAlthough the aerosol has been recognized as an important factor which has innuence onthe past, present and future climate for a long time, it still has much uncertainty in assessingits climate forcing. The direct radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols has been estimated rangingfrom --0.3 W/ m2 to --0.9 W/ m2 in recent publications (Charlson et al., l992, Kiehl andBriegleb l993; Taylor and Penner 1994, Boucher and Anderson l995, Kieh1 and Rodhe l995;Chuang et al., l997, Penne…     

基于CCSM4.0长期积分试验评估不同辐射强迫对中国干旱半干旱区降水的影响

本文基于气候系统模式CESM4.0长期积分试验,分析评估了工业革命前（1850年）及当前（2000年）两种辐射强迫作用（分别为太阳活动和温室气体）对中国北方干旱半干旱区降水的影响。结果表明,模拟结果与观测之间尽管存在一定的偏差,但仍能再现降水气候态的空间分布以及季节变化特征;两种辐射强迫下的降水长期变化均无明显趋势,但二者的差异却呈现出70~100年的准周期振荡;由人类活动引起的当前辐射强迫作用对降水的多年际变率幅度有一定影响,造成极端强降水事件出现的概率增多,而由太阳活动引起的辐射强迫作用主要对降水多年代际周期具有一定的调制作用。进一步分析表明,两种辐射强迫下中国北方干旱半干旱区降水年多年代际变率的主要模态基本一致,但人类活动引起的辐射强迫作用会影响降水多年代际变率与热带海温异常的相互作用的强度,从而改变降水多年代际变率的幅度。     

Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Aerosols over Oceans from Satellite Observations

Anthropogenic aerosols play an important role in the atmospheric energy balance. Anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its accompanying shortwave radiative forcing (RF) are usually simulated by nu- merical models. Recently, with the development of space-borne instruments and sophisticated retrieval algorithms, it has become possible to estimate aerosol radiative forcing based on satellite observations. In this study, we have estimated shortwave direct radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols over oceans in all-sky conditions by combining clouds and the Single Scanner Footprint data of the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES/SSF) experiment, which provide measurements of upward shortwave fluxes at the top of atmosphere, with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products. We found that globally averaged aerosol radiative forcing over oceans in the clear-sky conditions and all-sky conditions were -1.03±0.48 W m-2 and -0.34 ±0.16 W m-2, respectively. Direct radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols shows large regional and seasonal variations. In some regions and in particular seasons, the magnitude of direct forcing by anthropogenic aerosols can be comparable to the forcing of greenhouse gases. However, it shows that aerosols caused the cooling effect, rather than warming effect from global scale, which is different from greenhouse gases.     

Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet

The Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early 20th century global warming trend. Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone predominantly a cooling trend. At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 °C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987. This suggests that the Greenland ice sheet and coastal regions are not following the current global warming trend. A considerable and rapid warming over all of coastal Greenland occurred in the 1920s when the average annual surface air temperature rose between 2 and 4 °C in less than ten years (at some stations the increase in winter temperature was as high as 6 °C). This rapid warming, at a time when the change in anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases was well below the current level, suggests a high natural variability in the regional climate. High anticorrelations (r = ?0.84 to?0.93) between the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index and Greenland temperature time series suggest a physical connection between these processes. Therefore, the future changes in the NAO and Northern Annular Mode may be of critical consequence to the future temperature forcing of the Greenland ice sheet melt rates.     

Latitude-Dependent Response of East Asian Summer Monsoon to External Forcing in the Last Millennium

Response of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) rainfall to external forcing(insolation,volcanic aerosol,and greenhouse gases) is investigated by analysis of a millennium simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G.The model reproduces reasonably realistic present-day EASM climatology.The simulated precipitation variation in East Asia over the last millennium compares favorably with the observed and proxy data.It is found that the features and sensitivity of the forced response depend on latitude.On...     

20世纪中国气候变暖的归因分析

Progress in the attribution of climate warming in China for the 20th century is summarized. Three sets of climate model experiments including both coupled and uncoupled runs have been used in the attribution analyses. Comparison of climate model results with the observations proves that in the 20th century, especially in the recent half century, climate warming in China is closely related to the increasing of the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, while sulfate aerosol should also have contributions. When both external forcing and natural forcing agents are prescribed, coupled climate models have better results in producing the observed variation of temperature in China. The role of oceanic forcing is also emphasized in the attribution analyses. The observed climate warming of China in the 1920s could not be reproduced in any set of climate model simulations.