Climate policy strength compared: China,the US,the EU,India, Russia,and Japan

The few systematic international comparisons of climate policy strength made so far have serious weaknesses, particularly those that assign arbitrary weightings to different policy instrument types in order to calculate an aggregate score for policy strength. This article avoids these problems by ranking the six biggest emitters by far – China, the US, the EU, India, Russia, and Japan – on a set of six key policy instruments that are individually potent and together representative of climate policy as a whole: carbon taxes, emissions trading, feed-in tariffs, renewable energy quotas, fossil fuel power plant bans, and vehicle emissions standards. The results cast strong doubt on any idea that there is a clear hierarchy on climate policy with Europe at the top: the EU does lead on a number of policies but so does Japan. China, the US, and India each lead on one area. Russia is inactive on all fronts. At the same time climate policy everywhere remains weak compared to what it could be.

Policy relevance

This study enables climate policy strength, defined as the extent to which the statutory provisions of climate policies are likely to restrict GHG emissions if implemented as intended, to be assessed and compared more realistically across space and time. As such its availability for the six biggest emitters, which together account for over 70% of global CO₂ emissions, should facilitate international negotiations (1) by giving participants a better idea of where major emitters stand relative to each other as far as climate policy stringency is concerned, and (2) by identifying areas of weakness that need action.     

Assessing the Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation of the Past, Present, and Future

This paper is a review of the recent development of researches on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC）. In particular, we will review recent studies that attempt to best assess the stability of the AMOC in the past, present, and future by using a stability indicator related to the freshwater transport by the AMOC. These studies further illustrate a potentially systematic bias in the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean generM circulation models （AOCCMs）, in which the AMOCs seem to be over-stabilized relative to that in the real world. This common model bias in the AMOC stability is contributed, partly, to a common tropical bias associated with the double intertropical convergence zone （ITCZ） in most state-of-the- art AOGCMs, casting doubts on future projection of abrupt climate changes in these climate models.     

Preface to the Special Issue on Causes,Impacts, and Predictability of Droughts for the Past,Present, and Future

<正>Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years,     

Climate-governance entrepreneurship,higher-order learning,and sustainable consumption: the case of the state of Oregon,United States

The ongoing devolution of climate policy-making to sub-national levels has prompted growing interest in policy entrepreneurship by individuals who are politically and technically creative and institutionally resourceful. This paper investigates the case of the materials-management programme in the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality which has emerged as a national and international leader by focusing on the role of household consumption in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Two noteworthy innovations involve the development of a consumption-based GHG emissions inventory and introduction of policies aimed at facilitating construction of small homes (so-called Accessory Dwelling Units, ADU). The case traces over several decades the higher order learning processes within the group and their entrepreneurship toward affecting broader changes in emission accounting and climate policies in Oregon. The paper identifies the enabling factors for these innovations, and considers: how to create the conditions for learning, experimentation, and policy entrepreneurship; how to reproduce these conditions in different locales; and how to recognize and foster innovations that arise outside the established mainstream ‘climate community’. It also stresses the benefits of breaking down the barriers between science-based analysis and policy. The two questions frequently raised in the climate policy debate – how to bring researchers and practitioners together to develop efficacious policies; and how to replicate successful programmes and policies across different communities, jurisdictions, and locations – should be re-examined. It may be more appropriate to ask instead: How to create conditions for learning, experimentation, and policy entrepreneurship; and how to reproduce these conditions in different locales.

Key policy insights

• Using a consumption-based greenhouse gas emission inventory instead of a sector-based inventory radically changes climate policy priorities, shifting the emphasis from technological fixes to curbing household consumption.

• Policy innovations thrive in teams that combine technical and scientific competencies with: a commitment to addressing societal problems; interest in inquiry, experimentation, and learning; entrepreneurship; and strategic and political savvy.

• These qualities require breaking down artificial barriers between science and policy.

• Transformative policy ideas can originate within institutional nodes that operate outside of an established community of expertise and authority; and these should be identified and fostered.

     

Globalization,Pacific Islands,and the paradox of resilience

On April 2nd, 2007 a 12 m tsunami struck Simbo, a relatively remote island in Western Province, Solomon Islands. Although Simbo's population continues to depend on their own food production and small-scale governance regimes regulate access to resources, the island's way of life over the last century has increasingly been affected by processes associated with globalization. In this context of a rapidly globalizing world, this article examines the island's resilience and vulnerability to the tsunami and the adaptive capacities that enabled the response and recovery. The tsunami completely destroyed two villages and damaged fringing coral reefs, but casualties were low and social–ecological rebound relatively brisk. By combining social science methods (household surveys, focus group and ethnographic interviews) and underwater reef surveys we identify a number of countervailing challenges and opportunities presented by globalization that both nurture and suppress the island's resilience to high amplitude, low-frequency disturbances like tsunamis. Analysis suggests that certain adaptive capacities that sustain general system resilience come at the cost of more vulnerability to low-probability hazards. We discuss how communities undergoing increasingly complex processes of change must negotiate these kinds of trade-offs as they manage resilience at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the shifting dynamics of resilience may be critical for Pacific Island communities who seek to leverage globalization in their favor as they adapt to current social–ecological change and prepare for future large-scale ecological disturbances.     

Climatology of Ozone, PAN, CO, and NMHC in the Free Troposphere Over the Southern North Atlantic

Free tropospheric measurements of ozone, peroxyacetylnitrate andprecursors (CO, NMHC) that were made within the framework of the EUROTRACsub-project TOR (Tropospheric Ozone Research) between 1990 and 1995 at theGAW station Izana, Tenerife (28°18N, 16°30W) arediscussed. The average annual cycles reveal the importance of transport fromnorthern mid-latitudes and the role of photo-chemistry. According toair-mass trajectories, which were supplied to us from AEROCE(Atmosphere/Ocean Chemistry Experiment), transport from northernmid-latitudes is associated with high precursor concentrations in winter,whereas ozone concentrations in winter are not much influenced by transportpatterns, suggesting a rather uniform distribution over the northern part ofthe Northern Hemisphere around mean value of 43 ± 5 ppb. In summer,high ozone concentrations of up to 90 ppb are often encountered duringtransport from north, while the levels of precursors are much lower than inwinter, because of photochemical destruction. Trajectories from southerlylatitudes and the Sahara usually have the lowest ozone concentrationsassociated with them.     

Characteristics, Processes, and Causes of the Spatio-temporal Variabilities of the East Asian Monsoon System

Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects:the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.     

On the use of the Boussinesq equations,the reduced system,and the primitive equations for the computation of geophysical flows

Motivated in part by the mathematical problems associated with the application of open boundary conditions to the hydrostatic primitive equations (PE), Browning et al. (1990, Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 14: 303–332) proposed the use of the reduced system (RS) of equations to replace PE for oceanographic problems. The RS are essentially the Boussinesq equations (BO) with the non-hydrostatic terms in the vertical momentum equation multiplied by a constant δ² ? 1. This artificially alters the physics (e.g. changing the intemal-inertial wave properties) to facilitate numerical integration, but the changes are assumed to have negligible effects on the dynamics of interest. We assess the accuracy and utility of the RS (following the guidelines for the choice of δ) by comparing numerical finite difference solutions of RS, PE and BO for initial-value problems involving three-dimensional instability of an ocean front and atmospheric frontal development in a two-dimensional Eady wave. Both explicit (BO, PE) and semi-implicit (BOSI, PESI) time-difference schemes are used for the Boussinesq and primitive equations. For RS, the same explicit scheme as for BO is used where δ ? 1 allows larger time steps than with the other explicit models. It is found that relative to BO solutions, the errors for RS are small but increase rapidly and monotonically with increasing δ (over a range consistent with the guidelines) and are greater than the errors for the other models. The use of BOSI allows time steps at least as large as those for RS and results in smaller errors than RS. For these problems, BOSI is the preferable model to replace PE.     

中国古诗词中的云雾雨雪

从云雾降水物理学的角度学习和分析了一些中国古诗词。内容有:1）分析和统计了唐诗300首和毛泽东诗词中用到云雾雨雪等字的百分比,其分别占总首数的45%和66%;2）列举和分析了描述自然过程、大气过程有云雨雪等字的诗(词)句;3）从现代科学观出发,分析了在一些古诗词中有关云、雨、霜、露等的理解,并作了一些评述;4）对古诗词中直接描述云、雾、雨、雪的内容进行了评论。       

Preliminary Comparison of the CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, and JMA Ensemble Prediction Systems

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset,using various verification methods,the performances of four typical ense...     

Evaluating the performance of remote sensing precipitation products CMORPH,PERSIANN, and TMPA,in the arid region of northwest China

The arid region of northwest China is a large area with complex topography. Hydrological research is limited by scarcity and uneven distribution of rain gauges. Satellite precipitation products provide wide coverage and high spatial–temporal resolutions, but the accuracy needs to be evaluated before application. In this paper, the reliability of four satellite precipitation products (CMORPH [Climate Prediction Center’s morphing technique], PERSIANN [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks], TRMM [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission] 3B42, and TRMM 3B43) were evaluated through comparison with ground data or reported values on daily, monthly, and annual scales from 2003 to 2010. Indices including frequency bias index, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio were used to evaluate recorded precipitation occurrences; relative mean bias, the correlation coefficient, and the Nash coefficient were used to assess precipitation amount. Satellite precipitation products were more accurate in the warm than in the cold season, and performed better in northern Xinjiang than in other regions during the cold season. CMORPH and PERSIANN tended to overestimate precipitation. TRMM 3B42 and TRMM 3B43 performed best because the former most accurately detected precipitation occurrences on a daily scale, and both produced accurate space–time distribution of precipitation and the best consistency with rain gauge observations. Only a few monthly precipitation values for TRMM 3B42 and TRMM 3B43, and annual precipitation values for TRMM 3B42 were with satisfactory precision. TRMM3B42 and TRMM 3B43 are therefore recommended, but correction will be needed before application. Factors including elevation, relative relief, longitude, and latitude had significant effects on the performance of satellite precipitation products, and these factors may be helpful in correcting satellite precipitation.     

Black body temperature, orbital elements, the Milankovitch precession index, and the Seversmith psychroterms

Summary The temperature T of a black or gray body orbiting the Sun can be expressed in terms of spherical harmonics in latitude and longitude, its Keplerian orbital elements, and a variable describing rotation about its axis. Assuming that the Earth is a black or gray body without thermal inertia, the resulting equation for T exhibits previously unrecognized odd-degree zonal terms dubbed Seversmith psychroterms. They cause a hemispheric temperature difference which depends upon e sin _S, where e is the orbital eccentricity and _S is the Suns argument of perigee measured in an Earth-centered frame. The hemisphere containing perihelion is the cooler. For a gray body with the Earths average albedo of 0.3, an emissivity of unity, and an obliquity of 23.5°, the pole-to-pole temperature difference for the combined first and third degree spherical harmonic psychroterms can reach 3.4K for the present eccentricity of 0.016, and 12.9K for the maximum eccentricity of 0.06. While a thermally inertia-less black or gray body with boiling hot subsolar points and nights at absolute zero are poor models for the Earth, the Seversmith psychroterms will survive in more realistic models (although with smaller amplitudes) because the Earth radiates nonlinearly in T. The psychroterms acts in the direction opposite to the Milankovitch precession index, which also depends on e sin _S: by warming the cool northern summers, the psychroterms make it harder for the traditional Milankovitch mechanism to operate. The Seversmith psychroterms could in fact be responsible for the ice sheets that cycle with e sin _S, instead of the Milankovitch mechanism. By cooling the southern hemisphere for thousands of years when perihelion is in the south, the psychroterms may somehow cause the southern hemisphere to control the northern ice sheets associated with the 23kyr and 19kyr periods (kyr=10³ years), possibly through ice-albedo feedback in the sea ice surrounding Antarctica. Two other unexpected features besides the psychroterms are: while the average insolation increases with increasing e, the average temperature of the Earth paradoxically decreases; and the equator-to-pole temperature difference of 21K on a gray body with an albedo equal to 0.3 and an emissivity of unity is actually smaller than the observed difference of 28K on the real Earth.     

On the Heat Islands of Washington,DC, and New York City,NY

Data collected in 2007 from a dense commercial network (operated by AWS Convergence Technologies, Inc.) of roof-mounted temperature sensors are used to explore the heat island characteristics of Washington, DC, and New York City, NY. Considerable spatial detail is revealed, but aggregating data in annuli centered on assumed central locations in the business districts of the two cities reveals that the heat islands extend out to more than 30 km, with the New York City island being somewhat larger. The results from both arrays reveal the influence of the surroundings, with large scatter of daytime results being characteristic of sites with the greatest local surface inhomogeneity. Nighttime data are more ordered, and suggest that surface air temperatures decrease by about 0.02°C km⁻¹ for the Washington case, and 0.04°C km⁻¹ for New York, with the winter behaviour being more pronounced than for other seasons. Scatter of the data in the daytime is a common feature for all seasons, but mainly for those with the strongest insolation. Comparison between working day and weekend temperatures provides convincing verification that the air responds quite slowly to changes in surface (radiometric) temperatures, with distance constants of the order of many tens of km. There appears to be a small wind speed effect, which is evident in the nighttime data but is largely obscured by scatter for the daytime.     

基于中心轴线的北太平洋冬季风暴轴分类及其机理研究

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料研究了63年（1948～2010年）冬季北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变,提取风暴轴的中心轴线作为研究主体,以风暴轴的经向分布差异为重点,用模糊C均值聚类分析的方法将风暴轴分为平均型、偏北型和偏南型三类,并探讨了各类风暴轴对应的海气异常型及其物理机制。结果表明:（1）三类风暴轴分别显示了风暴轴经向差异的具体物理图像,对应着不同的涡旋移动发展路径,具有明确的天气学意义。通过EOF分解证明本文的分类反映了风暴轴的主要变化特征,物理意义清晰,具有一定的合理性和实用性。（2）三类风暴轴不仅经向差异明显,其北抬南压的纬向位置也存在显著差异,进一步表明该分类方法充分考虑了风暴轴空间分布的经向纬向差异,还揭示了风暴轴多中心的特点。（3）三类风暴轴对应的不同SST异常通过热力过程影响大气的温度场、风场和位势高度场,导致阿留申低压强度位置异常和水平风场异常,进而影响大气斜压性,决定风暴轴的空间分布,是形成不同类型风暴轴的重要原因。     

Observation of the temperature structure function parameter,C T 2, over the ocean

Shipboard measurements of temperature fluctuations, mean wind, temperature, and humidity permit comparisons to be made of experimental and empirical estimates of c_t ², the temperature structure function parameter. Surface flux estimates are obtained from bulk aerodynamic formulae. Temperature fluctuation data are selected to minimize a salt-contamination effect which causes increases in temperature variance. Predictions for C_T ² based on surface flux scaling agree within 20%, except for near neutral and large unstable conditions where disagreement can be attributed to measurement problems.     

Windstorm of the eighteenth century in the Czech Lands: course,extent, impacts

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This paper addresses the course, extent, and impacts of a windstorm that occurred on 20–21 December 1740, in the Czech Lands. The analysis is based on...     

Solar rotation,impulses of the torque in the Sun's motion,and climatic variation

Running variance analysis and maximum entropy spectral analysis applied to Mount Wilson rotation data yield arguments in favor of a connection between variations in the Sun's rotation rate, energetic X-ray flares, and impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun's irregular motion about the barycenter of the planetary system. Such IOT, that have been shown to be related to the secular cycle of solar activity and excursions of the Maunder minimum type, also seem to be linked to outstanding peaks in geomagnetic activity, maxima in ozone concentration, incidence of blocking type circulation, as well as rainfall over Central Europe, England/Wales, eastern United States, and India. Statistical tests, that confirm these links, additionally point to IOT connection with temperature in Central Europe and the number of icebergs that pass south of latitude 48° N. IOT relationship with X-ray flares and strong geomagnetic storms was tested in successful long range forecasts.Glossary of Abbreviated Terms A _c Equatorial angular sidereal solar rotation rate corrected for scattered light and averaged over respective Carrington rotations. - c-events See JU-CM-CSc. - CM Center of mass of the solar system. - CS Center of the Sun. - L Change of angular momentum L in the Sun's orbital motion about CM caused by an impulse of the torque (IOT). This change is measured by the time integral of the torque . - df Degrees of freedom. - g-events See JU-CM-CSg. - IOT Impulse of the torque in the Sun's irregular orbital motion about the center of mass of the solar system CM. The intensity of IOT is measured by the change in angular momentum L effected by the impulse. - JU-CM-CS Solar system constellation that is formed when the center of mass CM, the Sun's center CS and the giant planet Jupiter (JU) are in line. JU-CM-CS events initiate impulses of the torque IOT in the Sun's irregular revolution about CM. - JU-CM-CSc JU-CM-CS event that is accompanied with a sharp increase in orbital angular momentum and centrifugal motion of the Sun away from CM. - JU-CM-CSg JU-CM-CS event that goes along with a steep decrease in orbital angular momentum L and centripetal motion of the Sun toward CM due to prevailing gravitation. - L Angular momentum of the Sun's orbital motion around CM. - T Torque, the varying rotary force applied to the Sun in its orbital motion about CM that is equal to the time rate of change of the angular momentum L. - v Running variance: the smoothing technique of running means over two or more consecutive readings is applied to variance, the square of the standard deviation.     

Evidence of the terdiurnal,S 3, atmospheric tide in the surface wind field over the ocean

Surface winds were measured from anchored buoys at the corners of a 100-km triangle in the Atlantic ocean for three weeks in September 1972. The measurements were part of the British Royal Society Joint Air-Sea Interaction Project, JASIN-72. Peaks were found at a frequency of 0.125 cph (8-h period) in various wind statistics, indicating the presence of the terdiurnal, S ₃, component of the atmospheric tides that had previously been extensively studied because it is a prominent component in surface air-pressure records.