Preliminary Comparison of the CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, and JMA Ensemble Prediction Systems |
| |
Authors: | Mingkeng Duan Juhui Ma Panxing Wang |
| |
Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
| |
Abstract: | Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset,
using various verification methods, the performances of four typical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the China Meteorological
Administration (CMA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the US National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are compared preliminarily. The verification focuses on the 500-hPa
geopotential height forecast fields in the mid- and high-latitude Eurasian region during July 2007 and January 2008. The results
show that for the forecast of 500-hPa geopotential height, in both summer and winter, the ECMWF EPS exhibits the highest forecast
skill, followed by that of NCEP, then by JMA, and the CMA EPS gets in the last. The better system behaviors benefit from the
better combination of the following: data assimilation system, numerical models, initial perturbations, and stochastic model
perturbations. For the medium-range forecast, the ensemble forecasting can effectively filter out the forecast errors associated
with the initial uncertainty, and the reliability and resolution (the two basic attributions of the forecast system) of these
EPSs are better in winter than in summer. Specifically, the CMA EPS has certain advantage on the reliability of ensemble probabilistic
forecasts. The forecasts are easy to be underestimated by the JMA EPS. The deficiency of ensemble spread, which is the universal
problem of EPS, also turns up in this study. Although the systems of ECMWF, NCEP, and JMA have more ensemble members, this
problem cannot be ignored. This preliminary comparison helps to further recognize the prediction capability of the four EPSs
over the Eurasian region, provides important references for wide applications of the TIGGE dataset, and supplies useful information
for improving the CMA EPS. |
| |
Keywords: | TIGGE ensemble prediction system comparison verification |
本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
| 点击此处可从《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|