STATISTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF MCSS OVER ASIA AND WESTERN PACIFIC REGION

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are severe disaster-producing weather systems. Previous attempts of MCS census are made by examining infrared satellite imageries artificially, with subjectivity involved in the process unavoidably. This method is also inefficient and time-consuming. The disadvantages make it impossible to do MCS census over Asia and western Pacific region (AWPR) with an extended span of time, which is not favorable for gaining a deeper insight into these systems. In this paper, a fire-new automatic MCS identification (AMI) method is used to capture four categories of MCSs with different sizes and shapes from numerical satellite infrared data. 47,468 MCSs are identified over Asia and western Pacific region during the warm season (May to October) from 1995 to 2008. Based on this database, MCS characteristics such as shape, size, duration, velocity, geographical distribution, intermonthly variation, and lifecycle are studied. Results indicate that the number of linear MCSs is 2.5 times that of circular MCSs. The former is of a larger size while the latter is of a longer duration. The 500 hPa steering flow plays an important role in the MCS movement. MCSs tend to move faster after they reach the maximum extent. Four categories of MCS have similar characteristics of geographical distribution and intermonthly variation. Basically, MCSs are zonally distributed, with three zones weakening from south to north. The intermonthly variation of MCSs is related to the seasonal adjustment of the large-scale circulation. As to the MCSs over China, they have different lifecycle characteristics over different areas. MCSs over plateaus and hill areas, with only one peak in their lifecycle curves, tend to form in the afternoon, mature at nightfall, and dissipate at night. On the other hand, MCSs over plains, which have several peaks in their lifecycle curves, may form either in the afternoon or at night, whereas MCSs over the oceans tend to form at midnight. Affected by the sea-land breeze circulation, MCSs over coastal areas of Guangdong and Guangxi always come into being at about 1500 or 1600 (local time), while MCSs over the Sichuan Basin, affected by the mountain-valley breeze circulation, generally initiate nocturnally.     

The Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over East Asia in Warm Seasons

Mesoscale convective system (MCS) cloud clusters,defined using an objective recognition analysis based on hourly geostationary infrared satellite data over East Asia during the warm seasons of 1996-2008 (except 2004),were investigated in this study.The geographical pattern of MCS distribution over East Asia shows several high-frequency centers at low latitudes,including the Indo-China peninsula,the Bay of Bengal,the Andaman Sea,the Brahmaputra river delta,the south China coastal region,and the Philippine Islands.There are several middle-frequency centers in the middle latitudes,e.g.,the central-east of the Tibet Plateau,the Plateau of west Sichuan,Mount Wuyi,and the Sayan Mountains in Russia;whereas in Lake Baikal,the Tarim Basin,the Taklimakan Desert,the Sea of Japan,and the Sea of Okhotsk,rare MCS distributions are observed.MCSs are most intensely active in summer,with the highest monthly frequency in July,which is partly associated with the breaking out and prevailing of the summer monsoon in East Asia.An obvious diurnal cycle feature is also found in MCS activities,which shows that MCSs are triggered in the afternoon,mature in the evening,and dissipate at night.MCS patterns over East Asia can be characterized as small,short-lived,or elongated,which move slowly and usually lead to heavy rains or floods.     

A warm season climatology of mesoscale convective systems in the Mediterranean basin using satellite data

A 3-year climatology of isolated warm season mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) was built for the Mediterranean basin using Meteosat Second Generation infrared imagery and an objective identification and tracking algorithm. A dataset of 4,718 MCS trajectories was constructed for the warm season of the period 2005–2007, which in turn was split into two subsets (deep and weak convective) according to the intensity of convection using a discriminant parameter in the MCS properties. Several parameters related to geographical, temporal, radiative, morphological, and motion related properties were calculated for each MCS. The majority of MCSs are mainly continental and strongly correlated with orography showing an increased formation from April to June when maximum is found. Initiation and dissipation time revealed a distinct diurnal cycle having a strong correlation with the typical diurnal heating cycle of the atmosphere. On average, a typical isolated MCS in the Mediterranean basin initiates between 14:00 and 17:00 local solar time, tends to be small with elongated shape, short-lived, usually moving toward northeast to southeast with a mean velocity of 36 km/h. When comparing the two MCS subsets, some notable differences were revealed. Weak convective MCSs initiate earlier, move faster, travel longer, tend to reach slightly smaller sizes, are more linear, present higher cloud top temperatures, and have lower fractions of convective cloud type areas than deep convective systems.     

中尺度对流系统中的湿中性层结结构特征

基于CloudSat卫星获得的高分辨率中尺度对流系统垂直剖面结构,结合大气参量相对湿度和相当位温的诊断分析,在低纬度、中高纬度地区、陆地或海洋以及不同天气形势下,发现了多个非常典型的中尺度对流系统(MCS)内部具有湿中性层结特征的个例.进一步利用静止卫星普查到的东亚地区MCS分布情况,结合NCEP再分析资料诊断MCS重心位置处大气状态廓线,利用大量的例子从统计的角度揭示了湿中性层结结构特征在MCS中存在的普遍性,并且从动力学和热力学的角度探讨了湿中性层结结构在MCS发生和发展中所起到的作用.     

Modes of Mesoscale Convective System Organization During Meiyu Season over the Yangtze River Basin

Mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are classified and investigated through a statistical analysis of composite radar reflectivity data and station observations during June and July 2010-2012. The number of linear-mode MCSs is slightly larger than the number of nonlinear-mode MCSs. Eight types of linear-mode MCSs are identified： trailing stratiform MCSs （TS）, leading stratiform MCSs （LS）, training line/adjoining stratiform MCSs （TL/AS）, back-building/quasi-stationary MCSs （BB）, parallel stratiform MCSs （PS）, bro- ken line MCSs （BL）, embedded line MCSs （EL）, and long line MCSs （LL）. Six of these types have been identified in previous studies, but EL and LL MCSs are described for the first time by this study. TS, LS, PS, and BL MCSs are all moving systems, while TL/AS, BB, EL, and LL MCSs are quasi-stationary. The average duration of linear-mode MCSs is more than 7 h. TL/AS and TS MCSs typically have the longest durations. Linear-mode MCSs often develop close to the Yangtze River, especially over low-lying areas and river valleys. The diurnal cycle of MCS initiation over the Yangtze River valley contains multiple peaks. The vertical distribution of environmental wind is decomposed into storm-relative perpendicular and parallel wind components. The environmental wind field is a key factor in determining the organizational mode of a linear-mode MCS.     

基于静止卫星红外云图的MCS普查研究进展及标准修订

基于静止卫星红外云图的MCS普查标准不统一不利于各种MCS普查结果的对比分析, 该文在总结MCS普查研究进展的基础上, 依据Orlanski尺度分类标准对MβCS普查的最小尺度标准作了修订, 即修订为TBB≤-32 ℃的连续冷云区直径≥20 km。根据马禹等的MβCS普查标准和该文修订的MβCS普查标准, 利用GOES-9卫星红外云图普查了2003年6月19日—7月22日淮河大水期间的MCS, 结果发现共有10个MαCS和24个MβCS, 并对24个MβCS作了普查标准修订前后的统计结果对比, 发现新的普查标准比根据马禹等的MβCS普查标准获得的结果多7个MβCS, 并且这7个MβCS中有6个都引起强降水, 因此这种对比分析结果表明:新MβCS普查标准对揭示淮河大水和MCS的关系更具合理性。此外, 还分析了3个因MβCS而引起局地强降水的典型个例, 这些MβCS的直径尺度只有几十至一百多公里, 不符合马禹等的MβCS普查标准。对这3个MβCS分析结果表明:该文新MβCS普查标准有助于对产生剧烈天气的MCS的普查研究和预报。     

华南前汛期MCS的活动特征及组织发展形式

利用卫星云图Tbb资料、常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,按照Jirak对中尺度对流系统(MCS)的分类方法,将华南MCS分为MCC(中尺度对流复合体)、PECS(线状或长条状MCS)、MβCCS和MβECS(即β尺度的MCC和β尺度的PECS)4种类型,对华南前汛期MCS的时空变化特征、发生发展的组织形式和天气学背景进行了分析。结果表明:PECS是华南地区MCS的主要发展形式。4—6月MCS的发生个数逐月增多。MCS的日变化呈单峰型,主要集中于下午到上半夜形成,傍晚到半夜之间发展成熟。但具体到不同的4种类型,其日变化特征有一定差异。MCS活动分布特征与地形没有明显对应关系,全区都可有PECS发生。MCS主要以东移为主,其次的移动方向4种不同类型分别略有不同。MCS的发生发展有3种主要天气形势:500 hPa槽前西南风场型、850 hPa切变线南侧的西南风场型和地面低槽配合的Ⅰ型;500 hPa西北风场型、850 hPa切变线型和地面低槽配合的Ⅱ型;500 hPa西风槽过境型、850 hPa切变线南侧的西南风场型和地面低槽配合的Ⅲ型。孤立发展和合并增长是华南MCS的主要组织发展形式。     

基于静止卫星红外云图的MCS自动识别与追踪

由于缺乏成熟的中尺度对流系统 (MCS) 自动追踪工具,使基于静止卫星红外云图的MCS研究的深度和广度受到制约。手工目测法识别追踪MCS,工作量大且容易造成误差,无法用于长时间序列卫星云图的MCS普查。该文结合我国中尺度对流天气的特点,在重新定义MCS云团识别标准的基础上,给出了一种基于图像处理和时间序列分析技术的MCS自动识别、存储、追踪和时间序列特征统计方法。通过对2003年淮河大水期间连续时次卫星云图的MCS自动识别、追踪和特征统计,对该方法的应用效果进行了检验,结果表明:该方法不仅能对每个时次的MCS进行快速识别,同时也能对多时次的MCS进行有效追踪。     

南海夏季风对强热带风暴Bilis(0604)引发暴雨的影响

Bilis(0604)是一个登陆后长久维持并造成了特大暴雨的强热带风暴.通过对常规观测资料、雷达资料和红外卫星云图的分析,发现暴雨过程中不断有中尺度对流系统(MCSs)产生和发展,这些MCSs是造成强暴雨的主要中尺度系统.在此基础上用中尺度模式MM5对Bilis登陆后66 h的过程进行了数值模拟,模拟的雨带和雨量与实况较符合.利用模拟结果,对MCSs的发展过程和特征作了分析,发现Bilis的低压环流和南海夏季风在华南一带交汇,使得华南一带多中尺度涡旋、辐合中心和中尺度辐合线发展,这些系统为中尺度对流系统的生成和维持提供了有利的环境.敏感性试验表明,南海夏季风输送暖湿气流为暴雨区补充不稳定能量和水汽,对暴雨的产生具有十分重要的作用.     

Tracing the origins and propagation of pre-tropical storm Debby (2006) mesoscale convective systems using pattern recognition and image fusion

This study is focused on developing pattern recognition and image fusion techniques to trace the origins and propagation of the pre-tropical storm (pre-TS) Debby (2006) mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and African easterly waves (AEWs) using satellite imagery. These MCSs could be generating over mountains in North Africa and going through complicated splitting and merging processes. Therefore, an objectively analyzed MCS movement is essential. This study presents a technique which traces extracted features to find the origin of TS Debby. This technique produces a fused image with the most relevant information from water vapor and infrared satellite images, segments the cloud top height satellite images by clustering clouds, and tracks clouds to determine the origin of TS Debby (2006). The presented technique could be applied to other AEWs and MCSs which lead to tropical cyclogenesis to improve the numerical weather prediction over data sparse areas, such as over eastern and central North Africa.     

青藏高原上中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的个例分析及其比较

对1995年7月25—28日高原上连续数日出现MCSs的现象进行了红外云图特征及其演变、大尺度环境背景场和对流有效位能的分析。可以发现，所有这些MCSs有着相似的日变化演变过程；它们的初始对流在中午由于日射加热开始活跃，之后迅速发展，这些MCSs在后下午形成，在傍晚达到最强，之后逐渐减弱。其中26日MCS最为强大，它是在单一的强大的近于圆形的高原反气旋高压背景下受强的低层热力强迫和条件不稳定的驱动而发生的。这些发生条件都与高原本身的热力作用紧密相关，所以它的发生发展主要与高原特有的较为纯粹的热力因子相联系。28日MCS是另一个很强的MCS，它明显地受到中纬度西风槽的斜压区的影响，这二个很强的MCS有着不同的发展机制和显著不同的表现特征。     

THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON ON THE RAINSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LANDFALLING STRONG TROPICAL STORM BILIS (0604)

Bilis （0604） is a strong tropical storm that sustained over land for a long time, bringing torrential rain. With conventional observation data, radar data and infrared satellite imagery, Mesoscale Convective Systems （MCSs） are found to form and develop successively, which cause torrential rain. Then numerical simulation is conducted using MM5 to simulate a 66-h post-landfall process. The simulated distribution and intensity of precipitation match the observation well. With the simulated result, the characteristics and process of MCS development are analyzed with the finding that the convergence of the tropical depression and South China Sea （SCS） summer monsoon over The south of China causes the formation of a mesoscale vortex, mesoscale convergence center and mesoscale convergence line, which are favorable to the development and sustaining of the MCSs. A sensitivity experiment indicates that the SCS summer monsoon transports unstable energy and water vapor continuously, which is of vital importance to rainstorms.     

2013—2017年夏季东北冷涡下东北地区MCS的统计特征

利用2013—2017年6—8月FY-2E和FY-2G地球静止卫星相当黑体温度（Black Body Temperature,TBB）资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对我国夏季东北冷涡下东北地区MCS的分布和活动特征进行了统计分析,结果表明：（1） MCS的活动具有明显的月际变化和日变化特征,6月对流活动最活跃。MCS的主要移向是东、东北和东南,平均移动距离3.99个经纬距。（2） MCS成熟时刻的面积、偏心率和生命史均小于江淮地区以及中国中东部,云顶高度低于江淮地区,整个生命史表现出发展快消亡慢的特征,与江淮地区相反。（3）基于MCS的定义得到的Z标准,对2016—2017年的MCS作了统计分析并与J标准统计得到的MCS进行对比,得出,两种定义下的MCS环境场特征基本一致,主要表现为MCS多生成于500 hPa槽前和槽后,对流层高层MCS位于双急流之间靠近北支急流的辐散区,南侧急流高度在200 hPa,北侧的急流高度在250 hPa。低层,位于低空急流左侧,低涡南侧、东南侧,有较强的水汽和动量输送。槽前生成的MCS南侧中层存在垂直反环流向MCS输送干暖空气与位涡,槽后生成的MCS两侧均有大值位涡向其输送,同时北侧冷干空气的输送使锋区及上升运动加强,更有利于MCS的形成。（4）两种标准下的MCS造成的降水明显不同,在统计强降水方面Z标准要优于J标准。由于Z标准空间与时间尺度较小,统计得到的MCS较多;但同时会遗漏部分相对弱的MCS。     

2003年淮河大水期间MCS的普查分析

利用GEOS-9卫星红外1云图对2003年6月21日至7月22日淮河流域大水期间的MCS做了普查分析.结果发现：（1）淮河大水期间共有10个MαCS和24个MβCS,其产生频数远大于常年的平均值;（2）绝大部分MCS初生于淮河流域并且其成熟时的位置位于淮河流域是造成这次大水的主要原因之一;（3）淮河流域大水期间部分MCS的形成时间与一般MCS有所不同.最后,结合常规资料对产生MCS的天气背景进行了分类,发现该期间MCS形成的天气背景具有多样性.     

中尺度对流系统红外云图云顶黑体温度的分析

采用ＧＭＳ卫星红外云图的云顶黑体温度（ＴＢＢ）等值线分析方法，对１９９２年８月初在中国３个地区，不同环流背景下发生的中尺度对流系统（ＭＣＳ），即西南低涡内、西太平洋副热带高压的西北边缘和副高内部的ＭＣＳ进行了分析。结果表明，ＴＢＢ等值线分析方法能较细致地揭示ＭＣＳ的形成过程。冷云盖周围ＴＢＢ等值线疏密所反映的云顶温度梯度，对ＭＣＳ的发展有很好的指示意义。文中还给出了一个在消散阶段出现涡旋状结构的ＭＣＳ。这种涡旋结构不同与北美发现的中层中尺度气旋，它可能是凝结加热所产生的对流层高层的高压反气旋环流的反映。     

Initiation and Evolution of Long-Lived Eastward-Propagating Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Second-Step Terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley

Based on the previous statistical analysis of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)over the second-step terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley,eight representative long-lived eastward-propagating MCSs are selected for model-based sensitivity testing to investigate the initiation and evolution of these types of MCSs as well as their impact on downstream areas.We subject each MCS to a semi-idealized(CNTL)simulation and a sensitivity(NOLH)simulation that neglects condensational heating in the formation region.The CNTL experiment reveals convection forms in the region downstream of a shortwave trough typified by persistent southwesterly winds in the low-to midtroposphere.Upon merging with other convective systems,moist convection develops into an MCS,which propagates eastward under the influence of mid-tropospheric westerlies,and moves out of the second-step terrain.The MCS then merges with pre-existing local convection over the plains;the merged convection reinforces the cyclonic wind perturbation into a mesoscale vortex at 850 hPa.While this vortex moves eastward to regions with local vortex at 850 hPa,another vortex at 925 hPa is also intensified.Finally,the vortices at 850 and 925 hPa merge together and develop into a mesoscale convective vortex(MCV).In contrast,MCSs fail to form and move eastward in the NOLH experiment.In the absence of eastward-propagating MCSs,moist convection and mesoscale vortices still appear in the plains,but the vortex strength and precipitation intensity are significantly weakened.It is suggested the eastward-propagating MCSs over the second-step terrain significantly impact the development and enhancement of moist convection and vortices in the downstream areas.     

Distribution and Diurnal Variation of Warm-Season Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Relation to the MCSs in China

Short-duration heavy rainfall（SDHR） is a type of severe convective weather that often leads to substantial losses of property and life. We derive the spatiotemporal distribution and diurnal variation of SDHR over China during the warm season（April–September） from quality-controlled hourly raingauge data taken at 876 stations for 19 yr（1991–2009）, in comparison with the diurnal features of the mesoscale convective systems（MCSs） derived from satellite data. The results are as follows. 1） Spatial distributions of the frequency of SDHR events with hourly rainfall greater than 10–40 mm are very similar to the distribution of heavy rainfall（daily rainfall 50 mm） over mainland China. 2） SDHR occurs most frequently in South China such as southern Yunnan, Guizhou, and Jiangxi provinces, the Sichuan basin, and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, among others. Some SDHR events with hourly rainfall 50 mm also occur in northern China, e.g., the western Xinjiang and central-eastern Inner Mongolia. The heaviest hourly rainfall is observed over the Hainan Island with the amount reaching over 180 mm. 3） The frequency of the SDHR events is the highest in July, followed by August. Analysis of pentad variations in SDHR reveals that SDHR events are intermittent, with the fourth pentad of July the most active. The frequency of SDHR over mainland China increases slowly with the advent of the East Asian summer monsoon, but decreases rapidly with its withdrawal. 4） The diurnal peak of the SDHR activity occurs in the later afternoon（1600–1700 Beijing Time（BT））, and the secondary peak occurs after midnight（0100–0200 BT） and in the early morning（0700–0800 BT）; whereas the diurnal minimum occurs around late morning till noon（1000–1300 BT）. 5） The diurnal variation of SDHR exhibits generally consistent features with that of the MCSs in China, but the active periods and propagation of SDHR and MCSs difer in diferent regions. The number and duration of local maxima in the diurnal cycles of SDHR and MCSs also vary by region, with single, double, and even multiple peaks in some cases. These variations may be associated with the diferences in large-scale atmospheric circulation, surface conditions, and land-sea distribution.     

A new method to compare hourly rainfall between station observations and satellite products over central-eastern China

This study employs a newly defined regional-rainfall-event (RRE) concept to compare the hourly characteristics of warm-season (May-September) rainfall among rain gauge observations, China merged hourly precipitation analysis (CMPA-Hourly), and two commonly used satellite products (TRMM 3B42 and CMORPH). By considering the rainfall characteristics in a given limited area rather than a single point or grid, this method largely eliminates the differences in rainfall characteristics among different observations or measurements over central-eastern China. The results show that the spatial distribution and diurnal variation of RRE frequency and intensity are quite consistent among different datasets, and the performance of CMPA-Hourly is better than the satellite products when compared with station observations. A regional rainfall coefficient (RRC), which can be used to classify local rain and regional rain, is employed to represent the spatial spread of rainfall in the limited region defining the RRE. It is found that rainfall spread in the selected grid box is more uniform during the nocturnal to morning hours over central-eastern China. The RRC tends to reach its diurnal maximum several hours after the RRE intensity peaks, implying an intermediate transition stage from convective to stratiform rainfall. In the afternoon, the RRC reaches its minimum, implying the dominance of local convections on small spatial scale in those hours, which could cause large differences in rain gauge and satellite observations. Since the RRE method reflects the overall features of rainfall in a limited region rather than at a fixed point or in a single grid, the widely recognized overestimation of afternoon rainfall in satellite products is not obvious, and thus the satellite estimates are more reliable in representing sub-daily variation of rainfall from the RRE perspective. This study proposes a reasonable method to compare satellite products with rain gauge observations on the sub-daily scale, which also has great potential to be used in evaluating the spatiotemporal variation of cloud and rainfall in numerical models.     

Passive microwave and infrared structure of mesoscale convective systems

Summary The precipitation structure of mature Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) is examined in both the midlatitudes and the tropics using SSM/I microwave measurements, geostationary satellite observations, and ground-based radar observations. Discussion includes qualitative comparisons between midlatitude and tropical MCS cases, with particular emphasis on the delineation of convective and stratiform regions and the characterization of microwave polarization difference temperatures in the MCSs. Implications are given regarding the importance of the vertical precipitation structure on top of the atmosphere (TOA) microwave temperatures and for rain retrieval algorithms using measurements from space.Some of the principle findings include the ability of passive microwave brightness temperature measurements to distinguish stratiform and convective regions of MCSs for both tropical and midlatitude cases and over land and ocean backgrounds. Convective regions typically had low differences between the vertical and horizontal brightness temperatures while the stratiform regions have larger differences, and these differences are likely related to the spatial microphysical variations in the upper levels of the precipitation region. Several cases were found in midlatitudes and one case in the tropics where the lowest infrared (IR) brightness temperatures were displaced into the anvil region and were not colocated with the coldest microwave temperatures. Life cycle dependence of the displacement is suggested, but the SSM/I measurements with a maximum of twice daily coverage over the same location were inadequate to answer this question.With 10 Figures     

季风槽环境中暴雨中尺度对流系统的分析与数值预报试验

应用地面降水观测资料、卫星云图、雷达回波以及NCEP再分析资料,对华南沿海受季风槽影响下发生的一次持续性暴雨的中尺度对流系统（MCS）进行分析,并探讨采用数值模式对中尺度对流系统降水进行预报的可能性。分析表明,暴雨由多个相继发展的中尺度对流系统造成。在相似环境中,不同中尺度对流系统发展形态和水平尺度有较大差异,最大可组织发展成α中尺度对流复合体（MCC）,但一般为β中尺度线状或带状对流系统。对其中发展形态分别表现为椭圆形中尺度对流复合体（MCS-2）和带状β中尺度对流系统（MCS-4）的对比分析发现,对流的起始发展均发生在夜间,与季风槽中低空急流的南风脉动有良好对应关系。基于临近探空资料的诊断发现,被认为对中尺度对流系统组织发展有指示作用的关键物理量如对流有效位能（CAPE）和风垂直切变难以区分不同中尺度对流系统的发展形态和趋势,探空资料的代表性将影响诸如“配料法”等暴雨客观预报方法的建立和应用。利用华南区域中心GRAPES（GRAPES_GZ）数值模式对两个中尺度对流系统进行的模拟预报结果表明,采用数值模式对中尺度对流系统降水进行显式预报已成为可能。比较而言,3 km水平分辨率模式可以更好地预报出暴雨的发生,但结果对是否调用对流参数化（CP）方案敏感。尽管不依靠对流参数化方案模式能够较好地预报出中尺度对流系统初始降水的发生,但会过度预报发展成熟后的降水。模式中如何描述中尺度对流系统对流的组织发展机制、如何处理对流参数化方案的“灰色区分辨率”问题需要仔细考虑。