浅析啤酒销售与气象要素的关系及预测

利用1997年1月-2002年6月兰州市某大型啤酒企业啤酒销售资料与同期兰州市气象要素资料，分析气象要素对啤酒销售的影响。分析结果表明，温度是影响啤酒销售量最显著的气象因子。两者具有很好的相关性。采用最小二乘法建立啤酒销售量的月及逐日预报方程。并提出啤酒指数的概念。     

北京市三类主要饮品的销售气象指数研制

分析了北京市饮料、冰淇淋(雪糕)、啤酒的销售量与同期的北京市观象台地面气象要素的关系，从中筛选出对上述三种饮品销量影响最大的气象要素作为预报因子，分别建立了三种饮品销售量的气象据数预报方程。1998年夏季在“221”气象声讯台以每日、旬、月发布饮料、冰淇淋、啤酒气象据数预报。其社会经济效益较好。     

气象数据传输流程可视化设计与实现

设计了广东省级气象通信业务架构,通过解析气象通信系统异构收集分发策略,建立了气象数据传输知识库,并利用开源工具Graphviz进行气象数据传输流程的绘制和可视化呈现。结果表明:利用Graphviz能够迅速动态绘制出气象数据传输流程图,清晰展示气象数据流转情况,实现以资料为维度全面快速掌握资料传输全流程,进而提升广东气象通信业务管理水平。     

利用模糊评价法实现专业气象服务中商品销量预测

文章探讨了一种为商品销售预测开展专业气象服务的方法。该方法使用模糊评价法理论,通过确定和计算气象因素评价集,构建评价判断矩阵,计算权重系数等,最终计算出产品销量的预测值,从而为销售商的销售策略进行指导。通过济南2013年夏季某商场空调销量的预测实例,验证了该方法的可行性。     

南丰县早稻产量波动的气象因子分析

通过对1989～1998年早稻产量与气象资料统计分析．找到了影响早稻产量的关键期和关键因子．进而分析了导致早稻产量波动的气象因子,建立了早稻产量预报方程。     

夏季气温与商品销量市场预测及效益评价

分析了 1994～ 1998年沈阳逐月平均气温和某商场部分商品逐月销售统计数据 ,找出商品销量与气温变化的关系 ,制作出夏季商品销量预报用表     

冬小麦产量集成预报模式的探讨

作好冬小麦产量预报是气象为农业服务的重要项目之一。本文根据平凉市统计局提供的冬小麦产量资料,利用平凉市的气象资料及有关环流参数资料,分别建立了平凉市冬小麦气候产量的气象模式、环流模式和周期分析模式,进而对冬小麦产量集成预报模式进行了探讨。     

复合型气象人才培养与体系建设研究

提高气象事业实力关键在人才,核心在于培养和造就一批学习能力强、实践能力强和创新能力强的复合型人才。当前,受气候变化影响,各种自然灾害频发,如何有效预防与应对气象灾害,减轻其造成的损失,以及加强气象防灾减灾工作等诸方面迫切需要复合型气象人才。通过利用多种气象培训资源开展规模化培训、交差学科培养、复合型青年人才开发、建立团队模块化培养、跨部门人才交流等体系建设,培养和造就适应气象现代化需要的复合型气象人才队伍,进而推进气象事业科学、全面、快速发展。     

连云港旅游气象指数研究及其预报

以连云港市花果山1998年12月1日至1999年11月30日，整理一年的每日门票销售数，与相对应的气象条件进行统计，得到旅游气象指数与气温、天气、大风等气象因子有关，同时考虑了景点的人文景观、特色景观、植被状况等，建立的旅游气象指数，能较好地引导游客旅游并为游客服务。     

夏季气温与商品销量市场预测及效益评价

分析了1994～1998年沈阳逐月平均气温和某商场部分商品逐月销售统计数据。找出商品销量与气温变化的关系，制作出夏季商品销量预报用表。     

UASB处理猪粪废水启动试验研究

通过UASB反应器处理猪粪废水试验,研究了UASB处理猪粪废水的启动过程。在水浴35℃时,接种处理啤酒废水的厌氧颗粒污泥,通过控制较低的表面水力负荷,经逐步驯化66 d,完成了启动过程。结果表明:UASB反应器对COD的去除率为88.5%,其容积负荷达到10.9 kg/(m3.d),SS去除率为90.0%或以上。试验可为农村地区资源化技术提供一定的科学依据和借鉴。     

Climate change and implications for agriculture in Niger

Five-year moving averages of annual rainfall for 21 locations in Niger showed a decline in the annual rainfall after 1960. Correlation coefficients of the moving averages of monthly rainfall with annual rainfall showed significant correlations between the decline in the annual rainfall with decreased rainfall in August. Analysis of daily rainfall data for rainy season parameters of interest to agriculture suggested that from 1965 there was a significant decrease in the amount of rainfall and in the number of rainy days in the months of July and August, resulting in a decreased volume of rainfall for each rainstorm. In comparison to the period 1945–64, major shifts have occurred in the average dates of onset and ending of rains during 1965–88. The length of the growing season was reduced by 5–20 days across different locations in Niger. The standard deviation for the onset and ending of the rains as well as the length of the growing season has increased, implying that cropping has become more risky. Water balance calculations also demonstrated that the probability of rainfall exceeding potential evapotranspiration decreased during the growing season. The implications of these changes for agriculture in Niger are discussed using field data.     

降水过程中气象条件对郑州市区气溶胶浓度的影响

利用郑州大气成分站的气溶胶浓度资料和气象资料,对郑州市区PM10、PM2.5、PM1浓度的日变化和月变化特征进行了分析,并对气温、降水、风速、气压等气象要素在降水过程中与气溶胶浓度的关系进行相关分析,结果表明,气溶胶浓度与气压呈正相关,与气温、降水量、风速等气象要素呈明显负相关,且随季节变化有所差异。     

降水过程中气象条件对郑州市区气溶胶浓度的影响

利用郑州大气成分站的气溶胶浓度资料和气象资料,对郑州市区PM10、PM2.5、PM1浓度的日变化和月变化特征进行了分析,并对气温、降水、风速、气压等气象要素在降水过程中与气溶胶浓度的关系进行相关分析,结果表明,气溶胶浓度与气压呈正相关,与气温、降水量、风速等气象要素呈明显负相关,且随季节变化有所差异。     

LOCAL ENERGETICS ON EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF EXTRATROPICAL MARINE CYCLONE

Local energetics on explosive development of extratropical marine cyclone was proposed and adiagnosis of the representative cases was performed from local balance,net volume integrationbudget and vertical distribution using the derived eddy kinetic energy equation and eddy availablepotential energy equation.The results revealed that three primary scenarios are responsible for therapid growth of eddy kinetic energy and explosive cyclogenesis,and that a primary explosivedevelopment mechanism is the enhanced baroclinic instability by eddy heat transport and eddydiabatic heating,and that the explosive eyclogenesis is essentially a product of the peculiarclimatological background bearing strong thermal difference in cold season and its conversionpotential.     

Transport electrification: the effect of recent battery cost reduction on future emission scenarios

Although the rapid fall in the costs of batteries has made electric vehicles (EVs) more affordable and boosted their sales, EVs still account for only a fraction of total car sales. In the last years, the battery costs of electric vehicles have dropped faster than previously estimated in the empirical literature. As a result, future cost projections have been adjusted. The larger than expected reduction in costs also shows the uncertainty of battery cost development, which will affect the success of a transition to low-carbon transport. Integrated assessment models show that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is more challenging in the transport sector than in other sectors. Switching to EVs could significantly reduce passenger road-transport emissions. In this study, we test the sensitivity of the projected sales of EVs to different battery costs and climate policy futures. The model suggests that the effectiveness of policy incentives will strongly depend on the battery floor costs, as EVs only gain significant shares (15% or more) of global car sales within our model framework when battery costs reach 100 $/kWh or less. We therefore conclude that besides the pace of the battery costs decline, which has been rapid in the last years, it is important to understand the lower boundary of battery costs for modelling long-term global energy transitions.     

郑州市近58a降雨量变化分析

采用水文序列中常用的谱分析、有序聚类分析、Kendall秩次相关检验和Man-Kendall检验等方法,分别对郑州市1951-2008年的年降雨量、汛期和非汛期降雨量序列进行周期性、突变性和趋势性检验分析,结果显示:总体上郑州市年降雨量保持平稳,但各年汛期和非汛期的降雨量分别呈现出增加和减少的趋势,而且非汛期降雨量减少的趋势性较为显著;年降雨量和汛期降雨量有较为显著的近似10 a的周期,而非汛期降雨量表现为不显著的3 a的周期;年降雨量、汛期和非汛期降雨量序列的突变点均在20世纪70年代末和80年代初,但并不显著。     

哈尔滨市汛期特征与年变化

利用哈尔滨市１９５１ ～１９９８ 年候降水量资料,用候降水量突变划分汛期,并对哈尔滨市汛期特征进行分析。哈尔滨市汛期可划分为：提前型、落后型;偏长型,偏短型;连续型、分段型。平均入汛期为６ 月２１ ～２６ 日,最早入汛期为５ 月２１ ～２５ 日,最晚入汛期为７ 月２１ ～２６ 日;平均出汛期为８ 月２６～３１ 日,最早出汛期为７ 月６ ～１０ 日,最晚出汛期为１０ 月１１ ～１５ 日。平均汛期长度为６０ｄ ,最长汛期为１００ｄ ,最短汛期为２０ｄ 。     

Estimates of snow accumulation and volume in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions

Summary ¶Snow is a key feature of mountain environments in terms of the controls it exerts on hydrology, vegetation, and in terms of its economic significance (e.g. for the ski industry). Its quantification in a changing climate is thus important for various environmental and economic impact assessments. Based on observational analysis, surface energy balance modeling, and the latest data from high-resolution regional climate models, this paper investigates the possible changes in snow volume and seasonality in the Swiss Alps. An average warming of 4°C as projected for the period 2071–2100 with respect to current climate suggests that snow volume in the Alps may respond by reductions of at least 90% at altitudes close to 1000m, by 50% at 2000m, and 35% at 3000m. In addition, the duration of snow cover is sharply reduced in the warmer climate, with a termination of the season 50–60 days earlier at high elevations above 2000–2500m and 110–130 days earlier at medium elevation sites close to the 1000m altitude. The shortening of the snow season concerns more the end (spring) rather than the beginning (autumn), so that it should be expected that snow melt will intervene much earlier in the season than under current conditions. The results of this study are of relevance to the estimations of the impacts that the projected warming may have on the amount and timing of water in hydrological basins, on the start of the vegetation season, and on the financial status of many mountain resorts.