A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AND TRAINING CENTER ON EROSION AND SEDIMENTATION(IRTCES)

正Director:Shangfu Kuang,China Vice-directors:Chunhong Hu,China Duihu Ning,China Guangquan Liu,China The International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation(IRTCES)was jointly set up by the Government of China and UNESCO on July 21,1984.It aims at the promotion of international exchange of knowledge and cooperation in the studies of erosion and     

Calendar of events

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Dynamic process-response model of river channel development

Feedback mechanisms, which operate upstream through drawdown and backwater effects and downstream through sediment discharge are responsible for channel evolution. By combining these mechanisms with channel processes it euables a dynamic process-response model to be developed to simulate the initial evolution of straight gravel-bed channels. When erosion commences on a land surface, sediment entrained in the headwater reach by hydraulic action is selectively transported, deposited and reworked. This produces a damped oscillation between degradation and aggradation as the channel and valley respond to spatial and temporal variations in sediment calibre and hydraulic conditions. The initial cut and fill phases are responsible for valley incision and floodplain development while secondary and subsequent activity can produce river terraces. Eventually sediment entrainment in the headwaters declines as slopes are reduced. Subsequent channel evolution is relatively insignificant because it is dependent on local weathering activity producing material that can be transported on declining slopes. Therefore landforms produced during the initial phase of development, when local weathering was non-limiting, dominate the landscape.     

Discussion on the Precise Relocation and Seismo-Tectonics of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Earthquake

Based on relocating the Jiujiang-Ruichang earthquake sequence which occurred on November 26, 2005 in Jiangxi Province with the double-difference （DD） algorithm and master event technique, the paper discusses the focal mechanism of the main shock （MsS.7） and the probable seismo-tectonics. The precise relocation results indicate that the average horizontal error is 0.31kin in a EW direction and 0.40kin in a NS direction, and the average depth error is 0.48kin. The focal depths vary from 8kin to 14kin, with the predominant distribution at 10kin - 12kin. The epicenter of the main shock is relocated to be 29.69^oN, 115.74^oE and the focal depth is about 10.Skin. Combining the predominant distribution of the earthquake sequence, the focal mechanism of the main shock and the tectonic conditions of N-E- and NW-strike faults growth in the seismic region, we infer that the main shock of the earthquake sequence was caused by a NW striking buried fault in the Rnichang basin. The nature of seismic faults needs to be further explored.     

Hydrochemical and bacteriological features of the groundwater: southern border of the Rharb basin (Morocco) / Caractérisation hydrochimique et bactériologique des eaux souterraines: bordure méridionale du bassin du Rharb (Maroc)

Abstract

The western reservoirs represent the principal groundwater system in Morocco. Demographic, industrial and agricultural developments during the last decade have markedly altered groundwater quality. The Mamora coastal aquifer system is among the Atlantic systems which are most heavily threatened by pollution. Agricultural and industrial activities, and rapid urban growth contribute to the pollution of the groundwater. Contamination transport is facilitated by a high permeability of the aquifer formations. In order to assess the actual groundwater quality of the Mamora aquifer and to understand the influence of the factors generating the pollution, an extensive multidisciplinary research programme is in progress, with hydrochemistry and microbiology playing essential roles. The present paper concerns the spatial distribution of physico-chemical parameters in the groundwater, subjected to domestic, industrial and agricultural pollution. Fifty-seven samples were analysed for several parameters (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Cl^?, SO₄ ^2?, HCO₃ ^?, NO₃ ^?, pH, electrical conductivity and temperature). The microbiological analysis of 143 samples reveals the presence of four kinds of indicator bacteria in the groundwater resources: faecal Streptococci, faecal coliform, Escherichia coli and Clostridium. The physico-chemical results and bacteriological monitoring show that the nitrate and bacteria concentrations exceed the maximum admissible levels, notably around pumping stations in the sectors of Sidi Taibi, Sidi Ahmed Taleb and Aïn Sbaâ. Contamination is generated by uncontrolled anthropogenic activities and accentuated by the high intrinsic vulnerability of the aquifer system. Several parameters appeared to exceed admissibility standards. Measures are recommended to prevent groundwater pollution in the region.     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

Zink in der Umwelt

Zinc in the Environment. In 1990 the world production of zinc ammounted to 7 Mio. metric tons. The main areas of application were: galvanization, alloys like brass and zinc metal. The content in the earth crust varies between 10–300 ppm zinc with a mean of 70 ppm. Uncontaminated surface waters contain less than 10 mg/m³ zinc. Apart from civilization air contains 1–10 ng zinc per m³. These background concentrations are exceeded by orders of magnitude in zinc deposit areas and where anthropogenic influences predominate. Accumulation can occur in sediments and sewage sludge. Molluscs and Algae also accumulate zinc. Zinc is essential for live. With normal food the zinc supply of man is just sufficient. Bioaccumulation of zinc towards man or chronic oversupply of man is not known. Zinc has no teratogenic or mutagenic effects, a suspicion on a carcinogenic effect proved wrong. In stockbreeding and plant cultivation a minimum supply of zinc is necessary. Plants are relatively less sensitive against higher soil contents of zinc. Considering the toxicological and ecotoxicological effects of zinc in the environment, the critical organismens are marine invertebratae like tubifex, daphnia, gammarus and algae. But normally only a minor part of the total zinc contest is biologically available, depending on salt content and pH of the waters.     

Vorkommen natürlicher und synthetischer östrogener Steroide in Wässern des süd‐ und mitteldeutschen Raumes

Distribution of Natural and Synthetic Estrogenic Steroid Hormones in Water Samples from Southern and Middle Germany Natural and synthetic hormones can reach surface waters via domestic sewage effluents. For drinking water production, bank filtration of river waters is a common procedure and hormone contaminations can potentially reach groundwater levels and drinking water sources. In order to analyse steroid hormones in the different aquatic compartments (raw sewage and effluent, surface water, groundwater, raw and drinking water) of South and Middle Germany, a sensitive analytical method was developed and employed to detect the natural steroid hormones estradiol (E2) and estrone and the synthetic estrogen ethinylestradiol (EE2). Samples which were taken in two subsequent series were subjected to clean‐up and enrichment procedure and subsequently analysed by HPLC‐MS. The limit of quantitation for the method was determined to be 0.05 to 0.5 ng/L, depending on the matrix. By treating the samples with glucuronidases/arylsulfatases, conjugates were amenable to analysis and the sum of conjugates and unconjugated steroids was calculated. In raw sewage, the median of the concentrations of the unconjugated steroids was 7 ng/L for EE2, 1.5 ng/L for E2, and 5.5 ng/L for estrone. After cleavage of conjugates, the medians of total steroids were 9.5 ng/L (EE2), 3 ng/L (E2), and 13 ng/l (estrone). Conjugates therefore contributed up to 50 % of the total steroid concentration in raw sewage. In treated effluents, the concentrations of steroids were much lower than in the raw sewage. The medians of free steroids were determined to be 0.3 ng/L for EE2, 0.2 ng/L for E2, and 2.5 ng/L for estrone. Overall the medians in the effluent were thus less than 10% of those in the influent. Conjugates still contributed significantly (40% and more) to the steroid concentrations (medians: EE2: 0.5 ng/L, E2: 0.8 ng/L, and estrone: 8 ng/L).     

Darstellung der mikrobiellen Besiedlungsstruktur verschiedener Grundwasserhabitate durch Anwendung molekularbiologischer Methoden

Community Structures of Different Groundwater Habitats Investigated Using Methods of Molecular Biology The degradation of pollutants in groundwater and aquifers depends on microbiological and hydrogeochemical processes. To understand the transport and fate of anthropogenic compounds during bank filtration and artificial recharge of groundwater it is necessary to gain more information about the structure of microbial populations in these systems. The population structure of aerobic, anaerobic groundwater habitats and of water samples during artificial groundwater recharge was examined by 16S rDNA based analysis. Water and sediment samples were collected from a groundwater catchment area with artificial groundwater recharge near the river Ruhr in NW-Germany. 16S rRNA genes of mixed bacterial DNA from different samples were amplified by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) with eubacterial primer sequences. To reveal eubacterial population structure amplified PCR-products were separated by DGGE (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) on the basis of melting domain structure and nucleotide composition. DGGE patterns of groundwater enrichment cultures and groundwater samples were compared to demonstrate differences between the use of cultivation dependent and molecularbiological approaches. The DGGE pattern of groundwater is very complex and differs significantly from DGGE patterns of groundwater enrichment cultures characterized by a small number of distinct bands. This shows the small quantity of culturable microorganisms in groundwater eco-systems. Aerobic and anaerobic groundwater and sediment samples differ markedly in their DGGE profiles. Different hydrogeochemical zones of this groundwater catchment area are mirrowed by distinct DGGE patterns indicating changes in microbial community structure.Analysis of bacterial population structure in the course of artificial groundwater recharge shows identical DGGE patterns comparing surface water samples to samples taken be-fore gravel prefiltration and before sand filtration. In contrast the DGGE pattern of artificial recharged groundwater differs markedly, indicating significant changes in microbial population during underground passage.     

Ecophysiological Studies on Size-fractionated Phytoplankton Populations by Tracer Technique in Wadi el Majanin Dam,Libya

Wadi el Majanin, one of the largest hydraulic structures in Libya was studied for ecophysiological aspects in relation to ambient environment. The waterbody is alkaline (pH=7.2) and characteristic of hydrogen-carbonate (144.8 mg L^–1 CaCO₃) system. Vertical extinction coefficients (> 4.8) indicate very high (biogenic) turbidity. Conspicuous variations of a quantitative kind in algal development (e.g., Pediastrum bloom) together with abundant diatom populations (chlorococcales-diatom assemblage), apart from very common occurrence of cyanobacteria and euglenoids show eutrophic water condition. Winter-summer alternation induced pronounced seasonal variability in the rates of in situ planktonic algal photosynthetic activities (285.7...1305 mg m^–3 d^–1 C). Dark fixation activity, attributed largely to bacterial production, oscillated by order of 2-fold magnitude, characterized by summer maxima (47.6 mg m^–3 d^–1 C). Size-fractional analysis established that smaller forms (< 60 μm), broadly regarded nanno-phytoplankton, frequently dominated (c. 70%) overall algal productivity.