Response spectrum predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong: rock sites

To realistically assess the seismic risk relating to built infrastructures in Hong Kong and in the neighbouring coastal cities of southern Guangdong province, it is necessary to predict ground shaking induced by different earthquake scenarios with good accuracy. A companion paper has described the modelling of the spatial and temporal distribution of the diffused seismic activities in the region, based on the newly-developed ‘Expanding Circular Disc’ (ECD) method. Representative Magnitude–Distance (M–R) combinations for both near-field and far-field earthquakes (in relation to Hong Kong) have been derived using the ECD method. The present paper describes the modelling of the response spectrum on rock sites associated with the predicted M–R combinations, using the Component Attenuation Model (CAM) that was also developed recently by the authors, based on stochastic simulations of the seismological model. The significant effects of soil resonance on the response spectrum are described in a separate publication.The accuracy of CAM in modelling ground motion properties on rock sites has been tested here by comparisons with (i) strong motions recorded in Taiwan and South China from the 1999 ‘Chi-Chi’ earthquake in Taiwan (M=7.6), (ii) motions recorded in South China from another earthquake occurring in the southern Taiwan Strait in the same year (M=5.1), and (iii) historical seismic intensity data obtained within South China. The overall capability of CAM in modelling both near-field and far-field attenuation has been shown to be unmatched by existing empirical models. Results of the comparison studies confirm the accuracy of CAM, particularly within an epicentral distance of 300–400 km.This study shows that the developed serviceability response spectra (i.e. at short return periods) are controlled mainly by the earthquake recurrence behaviour of major distant seismic sources. In contrast, the ultimate response spectra (i.e. at long return periods) relate to events with magnitudes close to the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) limit, the effect of which may also be represented by the Characteristic Response Spectrum (CRS). Both types of earthquake scenario can be significantly affected by the regional crustal properties. The proposed response spectrum envelopes have been compared with previously developed recommendations, and a critical review has been conducted. The intrinsic advantages of the ECD–CAM modelling approach have been highlighted, emphasising its directness and transparency when compared with the more complex process required to implement traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA).     

Earthquake data review and seismic hazard analysis for the Hong Kong region

This paper presents the results of a review of earthquake data and a study of seismic hazard for Hong Kong. A region of about 660 km × 660 km around Hong Kong was selected for the study. In this study, the earthquake information available for the region was reviewed, and where possible, earthquake magnitudes were calculated. Since there is no strong motion record for any earthquake within the region, Joyner and Boore's attenuation law¹ has been used for the analysis. The results show that the seismic hazard in Hong Kong is relatively small, but because of the uncertainty inherent in the assumed attenuation relationship, accurate prediction of peak ground acceleration is not possible.     

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq Using Complete Earthquake Catalogue Files

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29°–38.5° N and longitude 39°–50° E containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905–2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by Stepp (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below M_s=4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones. A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes. The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were established and the minimum magnitude of complete reporting (M_c) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq the M_c was estimated to be about M_s=4.0 while S11 shows the lowest M_c to be about M_s=3.5 and the highest M_c of about M_s=4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate , b value, maximum regional magnitude m_max) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower magnitude m_min m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude m_max was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.The large variation of the b parameter and the hazard level from zone to zone reflects crustal heterogeneity and the high seismotectonic complexity. The seismic hazard near the source boundaries is directly and strongly affected by the change in the delineation of these boundaries. The forces, through which the geological structure along the plate boundary in Eastern and Northeastern Iraq are evolved, are still active causing stress-strain accumulation, deformation and in turn producing higher probabilities of earthquake activity. Thus, relatively large destructive earthquakes are expected in this region. The study is intended to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches and to pave the path for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard in this region.     

Rupture model of the 2013 M_W 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake constrained by a new GPS data set and its effects on potential seismic hazard

Vertical records are critically important when determining the rupture model of an earthquake, especially a thrust earthquake. Due to the relatively low fitness level of near-field vertical displacements, the precision of previous rupture models is relatively low, and the seismic hazard evaluated thereafter should be further updated. In this study, we applied three-component displacement records from GPS stations in and around the source region of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake to re-investigate the rupture model.To improve the resolution of the rupture model, records from both continuous and campaign GPS stations were gathered, and secular deformations of the GPS movements were removed from the records of the campaign stations to ensure their reliability. The rupture model was derived by the steepest descent method(SDM), which is based on a layered velocity structure. The peak slip value was about 0.75 m, with a seismic moment release of 9.89 × 10~(18) N·m, which was equivalent to an M_W6.6 event. The inferred fault geometry coincided well with the aftershock distribution of the Lushan earthquake. Unlike previous rupture models, a secondary slip asperity existed at a shallow depth and even touched the ground surface. Based on the distribution of the co-seismic ruptures of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, post-seismic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake, and tectonic loading process, we proposed that the seismic hazard is quite high and still needs special attention in the seismic gap between the two earthquakes.     

Distant‐earthquake simulations considering source rupture propagation: refining the seismic hazard of Hong Kong

Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses should be complementary, in the sense that probabilistic analysis may be used to identify the controlling deterministic design‐level earthquake events, and more sophisticated models of these events may then be developed to account for uncertainties that could not have been included directly in the probabilistic analysis. De‐aggregation of the tentative uniform hazard spectra (UHS) in Hong Kong resulting from a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) indicates that strong and major distant earthquakes, rather than moderate local earthquakes, make the largest contribution to the seismic hazard level within the natural‐period range longer than 0.3 s. Ground‐motion simulations of controlling events located 90 and 340 km from Hong Kong, taking into account uncertainties in the rupture process, reveal that the tentative UHS resulting from the PSHA may have significantly underestimated the mid‐to‐long period components. This is attributed mainly to the adoption of double‐corner source‐spectrum models in the attenuation relationships employed in the PSHA. The results of the simulations indicate clearly that rupture directivity and rupture velocity can significantly affect the characteristics of ground motions, even from such distant earthquakes. The rupture‐directivity effects have profound implications in elongating the second corner period where the constant velocity intersects the constant displacement, thus increasing the associated displacement demand. However, demands for acceleration and velocity are found to be not sensitive to the presence of the directivity pulses. Ground pulses resulting from forward rupture directivity of distant earthquakes have longer predominant periods than the usual near‐fault directivity pulses. These long‐period pulses may have profound implications for metropolises, such as Hong Kong and others in Southeast Asia, having large concentration of high‐rise buildings. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

强震远场前兆异常在地震预报中的应用

强震不仅有近场前兆异常，而且也有远场前兆异常，后者在地震预报中可以起到三个方面的作用：（１）远场前兆异常多在震前的短临阶段准同步地出现，为短临预报提供了较丰富的信息，有助于作出短临预报；（２）远场前兆异常一般具有双重或多重前兆的性质，它们是比较可靠的前兆异常，可为预报地震提供依据；（３）远场前兆异常显示明显的地区，是应力积累较高的地区，往往是后继地震发生地方，即指出了地震可能发生的地域。因此，对远     

Updating the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Values of Northern Algeria with the 21 May 2003 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> 6.8 Algiers Earthquake Included

The occurrence of the Algiers earthquake (M 6.8) of May 21, 2003, has motivated the necessity to reassess the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria. The fact that this destructive earthquake took place in an area where there was no evidence of previous significant earthquakes, neither instrumental nor historical, strongly encourages us to review the seismic hazard map of this region. Recently, the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria was computed using the spatially smoothed seismicity methodology. The catalog used in the previous computation was updated for this review, and not only includes information until June 2003, but also considers a recent re-evaluation of several historical earthquakes. In this paper, the same methodology and seismicity models are utilized in an effort to compare this methodology against an improved and updated seismic catalog. The largest mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are obtained in northernmost Algeria, specifically in the central area of the Tell Atlas. These values are of the order of 0.48 g for a return period of 475 years. In the City of Algiers, the capital of Algeria, and approximately 50 km from the reported epicenter of this latest destructive earthquake, a new mean PGA value of 0.23 g is obtained for the same return period. This value is 0.07 g greater than that obtained in the previous computation. In general, we receive greater seismic hazard results in the surrounding area of Algiers, especially to the southwest. The main reason is not this recent earthquake by itself, but the significant increase in the m_max magnitude in the seismic source where the city and the epicenter are included.     

祁连山地震带小震活动增强指标提取与预报效能分析

总结2015年以来、2010年以来和1980年以来祁连山地震带活动增强指标,得到祁连山地震带5年、10年以及40年尺度的小震频度预报效能。祁连山地震带M_L2.0以上地震月频度持续增强的异常出现时间在3个月以上,异常出现后1~3个月,祁连山地震带及边邻地区发生5级以上地震以及青藏高原东北缘发生6级以上地震的概率较高。作为短期预报指标,祁连山地震带的地震活动增强对甘肃及边邻地区的地震预报工作具有重要的指示意义。     

尼泊尔8.1级地震后青藏高原NE向地震活动条带的形成及其意义

针对2015年4月25日发生于印度板块北边界中段的尼泊尔8.1级地震后,青藏高原中强以上地震活动呈现NE向条带分布的现象,本文将区域地质构造动力环境和以GPS水平位移为约束的数值模拟相结合,初步分析研究了这一地震活动条带的基本特征和形成机理;进而将其与1996年前后出现在青藏高原及东北部邻区的"西藏榭通门-内蒙古包头"NE向地震活动条带、以及该条带形成后强震活动由东向西的迁移状况进行比较,探讨了目前的NE向地震活动条带对未来强震活动趋势的预示意义。结果认为:尼泊尔8.1级地震后青藏高原NE向中强以上地震活动条带,是在印度板块北推挤压动力持续作用下,因青藏高原NE向构造应力加强引起的构造活动响应,并与尼泊尔大地震低角度逆冲错动和地壳介质能量传递影响有关;而未来地震趋势可能使该条带附近强震活动"填空",进而使该条带东、西两侧较大范围强震活动性增强。     

Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean

We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M _w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.     

A Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard Parameters in NW Himalaya and the Adjoining Regions

The maximum likelihood estimation method is applied to study the geographical distribution of earthquake hazard parameters and seismicity in 28 seismogenic source zones of NW Himalaya and the adjoining regions. For this purpose, we have prepared a reliable, homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1500–2010. The technique used here allows the data to contain either historical or instrumental era or even a combination of the both. In this study, the earthquake hazard parameters, which include maximum regional magnitude (M _max), mean seismic activity rate (λ), the parameter b (or β?=?b/log e) of Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) frequency-magnitude relationship, the return periods of earthquakes with a certain threshold magnitude along with their probabilities of occurrences have been calculated using only instrumental earthquake data during the period 1900–2010. The uncertainties in magnitude have been also taken into consideration during the calculation of hazard parameters. The earthquake hazard in the whole NW Himalaya region has been calculated in 28 seismogenic source zones delineated on the basis of seismicity level, tectonics and focal mechanism. The annual probability of exceedance of earthquake (activity rate) of certain magnitude is also calculated for all seismogenic source zones. The obtained earthquake hazard parameters were geographically distributed in all 28 seismogenic source zones to analyze the spatial variation of localized seismicity parameters. It is observed that seismic hazard level is high in Quetta-Kirthar-Sulaiman region in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya region and Uttarkashi-Chamoli region in Himalayan Frontal Thrust belt. The source zones that are expected to have maximum regional magnitude (M _max) of more than 8.0 are Quetta, southern Pamir, Caucasus and Kashmir-Himanchal Pradesh which have experienced such magnitude of earthquakes in the past. It is observed that seismic hazard level varies spatially from one zone to another which suggests that the examined regions have high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonic complexity.     

Seismic Zonation of the Delhi Region for Bedrock Ground Motion

An endeavor is made to compute peak ground horizontal accelerations at bedrock level in the Delhi region due to the seismogenic sources present around Delhi. The entire area is divided into six seismogenic sources for which seismic hazard analysis is carried out using the complete and extreme part of the seismicity data. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard parameters viz., seismic activity rate , b value and maximum probable earthquake M _max are made for each zone. The return periods and the probabilities of occurrence of various magnitudes for return periods of 50, 100 and 1000 years are also computed for each zone. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for 20% exceedance in 50 years are then computed for the Delhi region from each zone. The maximum PGA value considering all the zones is 0.34 g, which is due to the Mathura fault zone. The seismogenic zones V and VI, i.e., Mathura fault zone and the Sohna fault zone are observed to be contributing maximum PGA values in the Delhi region governing the isoacceleration contours computed for the region. The seismic zonation map for the PGA values at the bedrock level is obtained for the Delhi region. This can be used directly as input for the microzonation of ground motion at the surface by incorporating the local site conditions.     

Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (M_W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M_W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.     

The Study on Seismicity and Relocation of the July 3,2015 Pishan MS6.5 Earthquake

The July 3, 2015 Pishan M_S6.5 earthquake occurred in the intersection area of the Tarim block and West Kunlun block where the moderate-strong earthquakes have become active in recent years. This paper has studied the seismicity parameters of the earthquake sequences such as the b-value in the Pishan region and its vicinity. In addition, we also relocated the aftershocks of the Pishan M_S6.5 earthquake using the seismic phase report by the double-difference method. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the Pishan earthquake sequence in the rupture zone are analyzed. The study is of great significance in the seismic hazard assessment in this region.     

Earthquake Hazard Parameters Estimated in Crete Island and the Adjacent Area

—?Earthquake hazard parameters are estimated by the application of the maximum likelihood method. The technique is based on a procedure which utilizes data of different quality, e.g., those in which the uncertainty in the assessment of the magnitudes is great and those in which the magnitudes are computed with great precision. In other words the data were extracted from both historical (incomplete) and recorded (complete) files. The historical part of the catalogue contains only the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several sub-catalogues; each one assumed to be complete above a specified magnitude threshold. Uncertainty in the determination of magnitudes has also been taken into account. The method allows us to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters which are the maximum regional magnitude, M _max, the activity rate, λ, of the seismic events and the well known value β (b=β?log?e), which is the slope of the magnitude-frequency relationship. All these parameters are of physical significance. The mean return periods, RP, of earthquakes with a certain lower magnitude M?≥?m are also determined. The method is applied in the Island of Crete and the adjacent area, where catastrophic earthquakes are known from the historical era. The earthquake hazard of the whole area is divided in a cellular manner which allow the analysis of the localized hazard parameters and the representation of their regional variation. The seismic hazard analysis, which is expressed by: (a) The annual probability of exceedance of a specified value of magnitude and (b) the return periods (in years) that are expected for given magnitudes, for shallow events is finally performed for shallow events. This hazard analysis is useful for both theoretical and practical reasons and provides a tool for earthquake resistant design in both areas of low and high seismicity.     

Cursory seismic drift assessment for buildings in moderate seismicity regions

This paper outlines a methodology to assess the seismic drift of reinforced concrete buildings with limited structural and geotechnical information. Based on the latest and the most advanced research on predicting potential near-field and far field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong, the engineering response spectra for both rock and soil sites are derived. A new step-by-step procedure for displacement-based seismic hazard assessment of building structures is proposed to determine the maximum inter-storey drift demand for reinforced concrete buildings. The primary information required for this assessment is only the depth of the soft soil above bedrock and the height of the building. This procedure is further extended to assess the maximum chord rotation angle demand for the coupling beam of coupled shear wall or frame wall structures, which may be very critical when subjected to earthquake forces. An example is provided to illustrate calibration of the assessment procedure by using actual engineering structural models.     

Rupture process and aftershock focal mechanisms of the 2022 M6.8 Luding earthquake in Sichuan

According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, a strong earthquake of M6.8 occurred in Luding County, Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province, China (102.08°E, 29.59°N), on September 5, 2022, with a focal depth of 16 km. Rapid determination of the source parameters of the earthquake sequence is vital for post-earthquake rescue, disaster assessment, and scientific research. Near-field seismic observations play a key role in the fast and reliable determination of earthquake source parameters. The numerous broadband seismic stations and strong-motion stations recently deployed by the National Earthquake Intensity Rapid Report and Early Warning project have provided valuable real-time near-field observation data. Using these near-field observations and conventional mid- and far-field seismic waveform records, we obtained the focal mechanism solutions of the mainshock and M ≥ 3.0 aftershocks through the waveform fitting method. We were further able to rapidly invert the rupture process of the mainshock. Based on the evaluation of the focal mechanism solution of the mainshock and the regional tectonic setting, we speculate that the Xianshuihe fault formed the seismogenic structure of the M6.8 strong earthquake. The aftershocks formed three spatially separated clusters with distinctly different focal mechanisms, reflecting the segmented nature of the Xianshuihe fault. As more high-frequency information has been applied in this study, the absolute location of the fault rupture is better constrained by the near-field strong-motion data. The rupture process of the mainshock correlates well with the spatial distribution of aftershocks, i.e., aftershock activities were relatively weak in the maximum slip area, and strong aftershock activities were distributed in the peripheral regions.     

以震源精确定位结果分析张北地震序列的破裂特征

利用远场和近场数字地震观测记录 ,重新测定了张北地震序列ML≥ 3级地震的震源位置 ,结合修订后的震源机制、宏观烈度分布资料 ,给出了张北地震序列的破裂特征。地震序列由走向NWW、倾向NNE、倾角 4 4°、长 11.5km的左旋走向滑动的主破裂面 ,2条NNE走向、高倾角、右旋走滑的次要破裂面组合而成。NWW和NNE走向的破裂面共轭展布 ,2条NNE向的破裂面呈右阶斜列 ,3条破裂面先后依次出现。破裂面埋深 1.4～ 7.6km ,在地壳的浅部。研究表明 ,在没有发现活动断裂的“构造稳定区” ,利用精确可靠的强震序列震源位置、震源机制和宏观烈度分布资料 ,从三维空间分析研究强震序列的震源断层 ,是一条可行的途径     

Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.     

Earthquake Hazard Parameters in Crete Island and its Surrounding Area Inferred from Bayes Statistics: An Integration of Morphology of the Seismically Active Structures and Seismological Data

-- The study addresses the evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum regional magnitude (M_max) and the slope of Gutenberg-Richter law # (where b=# log e) for the Hellenic Wadati-Benioff zone and the overriding lithospheric plate in the area of Crete and its surroundings. The seismicity of the area is divided in a cellular (1.0° 2 1.0°) manner allowing analysis of the localized earthquake hazard parameters and graphical representation of their spatial variation. Our approach incorporates the recently updated earthquake catalogue for Greece and the adjacent areas, the consideration of the morphology of the deep seismically active structures in the studied area and use of a probabilistic procedure for estimating the earthquake hazard parameters.¶One of the main inconsistencies in the earthquake hazard assessment is the estimation of the maximum magnitude and the related uncertaint y. The Bayesian approach, applied in the present, is a straightforward technique for evaluating the earthquake hazard parameters and is based on the following assumptions: Poissonian character of seismic events flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg-Richter's type with cutoff maximal value for estimated parameter and a seismic catalogue, having a rather sizeable number of events (i.e., 50 events at least per cell). For five cells in which the number of events is less than 50, an effort is made to produce synthetic data. The re-assessed parameters obtained from the synthetic data show no significant difference and the real data (of the five cells) are finally taken into account although the estimated uncertainty is high.¶For four random cells we constructed hazard curves showing the probabilities that a certain magnitude M will be exceeded in one year and the return periods (in years) that are expected for a given magnitude. These are particularly useful for the mapping of earthquake hazard in regions of either low or high seismic activity, as is Crete and the adjacent area.¶The obtained results show that the W and E parts of both subducting and overriding plates differ in the spatial distribution of all the estimated earthquake hazard parameters. The M_max distribution indicates strong coupling between the western portions of the interacting plates (M_max > 6.3) to the south of 36°N. The smaller values of M_max (M_max < 6.3) estimated in the SE part of the studied area indicate weak coupling between the eastern portions of the subducting and overriding plates.¶Values of b > 1.0 are found to the south and east of Crete for the Wadati-Benioff zone, and over the central part of the island and the area to the northeast of it (cell 11) for the continental wedge, which suggests nonuniform stress field and/or heterogeneous material.