Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and pan evaporation at 23 meteorological stations in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2001, the long‐term monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables have been investigated. The plausible monotonic trend of annual climatic time series are detected using a non‐parametric method. The abrupt changes have been investigated in terms of a 5 year moving averaged annual series, using the moving t‐test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method and Mann–Kendall method. The results showed that the annual air temperature has increased by 0·80 °C in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin during the past 42 years. One obvious cold period and one warm period were detected. The warmest centre was located in the northern part of the basin. The long‐term trend for annual precipitation was not significant during the same period, but a dry tendency was detected. According to the Kendall slope values, the declining centre for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the centre of the study area. The long‐term monotonic trend for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were negative. The average Kendall slopes are ? 29·96 h/10 yr and ? 39·63 mm/10 yr, respectively. The tests for abrupt changes using MTT and Yamamoto methods show similar results. Abrupt changes occurred in the mid 1980s for temperature, in the late 1980s for precipitation and in the early 1980s for sunshine duration and pan evaporation. It can be seen that the abrupt changes really happened in the 1980s for the climate variables. Different results are shown using the Mann–Kendall method. Both the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation took place in the early 1990s, and that of pan evaporation occurred in the 1960s. The only abrupt change in sunshine duration happened during the similar period (in the 1980s) with the results detected by the MTT and Yamamoto methods. The abrupt changes which occurred in the 1990s and 1960s are not detectable using the MTT and Yamamoto methods because of the data limitation. However, the results tested by the MTT and Yamamoto methods exhibited great consistency. Some of the reasons may be due to the similar principles for these two methods. Different methods testing the abrupt climatic changes have their own merits and limitations and should be compared based on their own assumption and applicable conditions when they are used. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域气候变化趋势及突变分析

本文利用1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域14个气象站的气温、降水量、蒸发量等观测数据和8个主要水文站的流量数据,研究该时段内鄱阳湖流域的气候变化趋势、突变及其空间分布的差异．研究表明,鄱阳潮流域气温和降水均在1990年发生突变,继而呈现显著的上升趋势;在季节变化上,冬季平均气温在1986年发生突变,增温显著;夏季降水量和夏季暴雨频率均在1992年发生突变增加,暴雨频率增加是夏季降水量增加的主要原因;蒸发皿蒸发量和参照蒸散量均呈现显著下降趋势,该变化在夏季尤为明显．上述变化趋势均以1990s最为显著,这与长江流域气候变化趋势基本一致．在空间分布上,饶河水系、信江水系和赣江下游等气候变化更为显著．笔者认为,鄱阳湖流域气候变化在长江流域中比较突出．该流域1990s暖湿气候在加强;气温的升高、降水量和暴雨频率的增加以及蒸发量的下降强化了五河流量的增加趋势,由此可大致判定鄱阳湖流域气候变化与洪涝灾害之间可能存在的关系,这可为理解气候变化在该流域的响应和预测该流域未来可能的洪涝灾害提供依据．     

Investigation of the relationship between runoff and atmospheric oscillations,sea surface temperature,and local‐scale climate variables in the Yellow River headwaters region

The Yellow River headwaters region (YRHR) contributes nearly 40% of total flow in the Yellow River basin, which is suffering from a serious water shortage problem. Investigation of the relationship between runoff and climate variables is important for understanding the variation trend of runoff in the YRHR under global climate change. Global and local climate variables, including the West Pacific subtropical high; northern hemisphere polar vortex (NH); Tibetan Plateau Index B (TPI‐B); southern oscillation index; sea surface temperature; and precipitation, evaporation, and temperature, were fully considered to explore the relationship with runoff at Jimai, Maqu, and Tangnaihai stations from 1956 to 2014. The results reveal that runoff had a decreasing trend, which will likely be maintained in the future, and there was a significant change in runoff around 1995 at all stations. Correlation analysis indicated that runoff was dominated by precipitation, NH, temperature, and TPI‐B, and a substantial correlation was observed with sea surface temperature and evaporation, but there was little correlation with West Pacific subtropical high and southern oscillation index. Furthermore, impacts of climate change on runoff variations were distinctly different at different temporal scales. Three dominant runoff periodicities were identified by a singular spectrum analysis‐multitaper method and continuous wavelet transform, that is, 1.0‐, 6.9‐, and 24.8‐year runoff periodicities. In addition, runoff was positively correlated with temperature at a 1‐year periodicity, negatively correlated with TPI‐B at a 6.9‐year periodicity, and positively correlated with NH at a 24.8‐year periodicity, that is, temperature, TPI‐B, and NH‐controlled runoff at annual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Further, all analyses of the stations in the YRHR showed excellent consistency. The results will provide valuable information for water resource management in the YRHR.     

Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau—regional temperature and precipitation

The Tibetan Plateau has one of the most complex climates in the world. Analysis of the climate in this region is important for understanding the climate change worldwide. In this study, climate patterns and trends in the Tibetan Plateau were analysed for the period from 1961 to 2001. Air temperature and precipitation were analysed on monthly and annual time scales using data collected from the National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration. Nonlinear slopes were estimated and analysed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of air temperature and precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau using a Mann–Kendall method. Spatial analysis of air temperature and precipitation variability across the Tibetan Plateau was undertaken. While most trends are local in nature, there are general basinwide patterns. Temperature during the last several decades showed a long‐term warmer trend, especially the areas around Dingri and Zogong stations, which formed two increasing centres. Only one of the stations investigated exhibited decreasing trend, and this was not significant. Precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau has increased in most regions of the study area over the past several decades, especially in the eastern and central part, while the western Tibetan Region exhibited a decreased trend over the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal variation of river flow renewability in the middle Yellow River and the influencing factors

In the past 30 years, the measured annual river flow of the Yellow River has declined significantly. After adding the diverted water back to get the ‘natural’ annual river flow, the tendency of decrease can still be seen. This indicates that the river flow renewability of the Yellow River has changed. The river flow renewability is indexed as the ratio of annual ‘natural’ river flow to annual precipitation over a river drainage basin, where the ‘natural’ river flow is the measured annual river flow plus the annual ‘net’ water diversion from the river. By using this index, based on the data from the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen stations on the middle Yellow River, a study has been made of the river flow renewability of the Yellow River in the changing environment of the past 50 years. The river flow renewability index (I_rr) in the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen in the middle Yellow River basin has been found to decline significantly with time. In the meantime, annual precipitation decreased, annual air temperature increased, but the area of water and soil conservation measures has been increased. It has been found that I_rr is positively correlated with the areal averaged annual precipitation, but negatively correlated with annual air temperature. There is close, negative correlation between I_rr and the area of water and soil conservation measures including land terracing, tree and grass planting and checkdam building, implying that water and soil conservation measures have reduced the river flow renewability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone

Reliable projections of extremes at finer spatial scales are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on societal and natural systems, particularly for elevated and cold regions in the Tibetan Plateau. This paper presents future projections of extremes of daily precipitation and temperature, under different future scenarios in the headwater catchment of Yellow River basin over the 21st century, using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicate that: (1) although the mean temperature was simulated perfectly, followed by monthly pan evaporation, the skill scores in simulating extreme indices of precipitation are inadequate; (2) The inter-annual variabilities for most extreme indices were underestimated, although the model could reproduce the extreme temperatures well. In fact, the simulation of extreme indices for precipitation and evaporation were not satisfactory in many cases. (3) In future period from 2011 to 2100, increases in the temperature and evaporation indices are projected under a range of climate scenarios, although decreasing mean and maximum precipitation are found in summer during 2020s. The findings of this work will contribute toward a better understanding of future climate changes for this unique region.     

Impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff in the Dongjiang River basin of China

Observed rainfall and flow data from the Dongjiang River basin in humid southern China were used to investigate runoff changes during low‐flow and flooding periods and in annual flows over the past 45 years. We first applied the non‐parametric Mann–Kendall rank statistic method to analyze the change trend in precipitation, surface runoff and pan evaporation in those three periods. Findings showed that only the surface runoff in the low‐flow period increased significantly, which was due to a combination of increased precipitation and decreased pan evaporation. The Pettitt–Mann–Whitney statistical test results showed that 1973 and 1978 were the change points for the low‐flow period runoff in the Boluo sub‐catchment and in the Qilinzui sub‐catchment, respectively. Most importantly, we have developed a framework to separate the effects of climate change and human activities on the changes in surface runoff based on the back‐propagation artificial neural network (BP‐ANN) method from this research. Analyses from this study indicated that climate variabilities such as changes in precipitation and evaporation, and human activities such as reservoir operations, each accounted for about 50% of the runoff change in the low‐flow period in the study basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Responses of streamflow to climate change in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang: A case study of the Toutun River basin

A case study on the responses of streamflow to climate change in the Toutun River basin was carried out based on data analysis of streamflow, precipitation, and temperatures during the past 50 years.Temporal series of the streamflow change in the Toutun River basin was analyzed and tested using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. Results revealed that the annual runoff of the Toutun River had been in a monotonic decreasing trend for the past 50 years. Compared with the 1950s and 1960s, the annual runoff in the 1990s decreased by 4.0×105 m3 and 7.2×105 m3. The precipitation did not show monotonic trend during the past 50 years, but the annual temperature increased by 1.12℃ since the 1950s. Further data analysis indicated that the monthly runoff of the Toutun River decreased significantly from August to October, with precipitation displaying the similar pattern of seasonal change. Analysis suggests that the reduction of streamflow in the Toutun River basin is possibly caused by the seasonal change of precipitation, especially the precipitation reduction in summer, and temperature increases.     

Comparison of evapotranspiration variations between the Yellow River and Pearl River basin, China

Based on daily meteorological data at 43 gauging stations in the Pearl River basin and 65 gauging stations in the Yellow River basin, we analyze changing properties of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a), reference evapotranspiration (ET_ref) and precipitation in these two river basins. In our study, Pearl River basin is taken as the ‘energy-limited’ system and the Yellow River basin as the ‘water-limited’ system. The results indicate decreasing ET_a in the Pearl River and Yellow River basin. However, different changing properties are detected for ET_ref when compared to ET_a. The middle and upper Yellow River basin are characterized by increasing ET_ref values, whereas the Pearl River basin is dominated by decreasing ET_ref values. This result demonstrates enhancing drying force in the Yellow River basin. ET_a depends mainly on the changes of precipitation amount in the Yellow River basin. In the Pearl River basin, however, ET_a changes are similar to those of ET_ref, i.e. both are in decreasing trend and which may imply weakening hydrological cycle in the Pearl River basin. Different influencing factors are identified behind the ET_a and ET_ref in the Pearl River and Yellow River basin: In the Pearl River basin, intensifying urbanization and increasing aerosol may contribute much to the evapotranspiration changes. Variations of precipitation amount may largely impact the spatial and temporal patterns of ET_a in the Yellow River basin. The current study is practically and scientifically significant for regional assessment of water resource in the arid and humid regions of China under the changing climate.     

Spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in precipitation during 1957�C2007 in the Haihe River basin, China

The present study explores the spatial and temporal changing patterns of the precipitation in the Haihe River basin of North China during 1957–2007 at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. The Mann–Kendall and Sen’s T tests are employed to detect the trends, and the segmented regression is applied to investigate possible change points. Meanwhile, Sen’s slope estimator is computed to represent the magnitudes of the temporal trends. The regional precipitation trends are also discussed based on the regional index series of four sub-basins in the basin. Serial correlation of the precipitation series is checked prior to the application of the statistical test to ensure the validity of trend detection. Moreover, moisture flux variations based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset are investigated to further reveal the possible causes behind the changes in precipitation. The results show that: (1) Although the directions of annual precipitation trends at all stations are downward, only seven stations have significant trends at the 90% confidence level, and these stations are mainly located in the western and southeastern Haihe River basin. (2) Summer is the only season showing a strong downward trend. For the monthly series, significant decreasing trends are mainly found during July, August and November, while significant increasing trends are mostly observed during May and December. In comparison with the annual series, more intensive changes can be found in the monthly series, which may indicate a shift in the precipitation regime. (3) Most shifts from increasing trends to decreasing trends occurred in May–June, July, August and December series, while opposed shifts mainly occurred in November. Summer is the only season displaying strong shift trends and the change points mostly emerged during the late 1970s to early 1980s. (4) An obvious decrease in moisture flux is observed after 1980 in comparison with the observations before 1980. The results of similar changing patterns between monthly moisture budget and precipitation confirmed that large-scale atmospheric circulation may be responsible for the shift in the annual cycle of precipitation in the Haihe River basin. These findings are expected to contribute to providing more accurate results of regional changing precipitation patterns and understanding the underlying linkages between climate change and alterations of hydrological cycles in the Haihe River basin.     

Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in semiarid regions: a case study of the Wei River basin,China

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activity on the hydrological processes in river basins is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining local economic development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate variability and human activity on mean annual flow in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the variations of hydrometeorological variables in the semiarid Wei River basin in the northwestern China. The identifications were based on streamflow records from 1958 to 2008 at four hydrological stations as well as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 21 climate stations. A simple method based on Budyko curve was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and human activities on mean annual flow. The results show that annual streamflow decreased because of the reduced precipitation and increased PET at most stations. Both annual and seasonal precipitation and PET demonstrated mixed trends of decreasing and increasing, although significant trends (P < 0.05) were consistently detected in spring and autumn at most stations. Significant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year (P < 0.05) were examined in all the time series. The spectrum of streamflow at the Huaxian station shows insignificant annual cycle during 1971–1975, 1986–1993 and 1996–2008, which is probably resulted from human activities. Climate variability greatly affected water resources in the Beiluo River, whereas human activities (including soil and water conservation, irrigation, reservoirs construction, etc.) accounted more for the changes of streamflow in the area near the Huaxian station during different periods. The results from this article can be used as a reference for water resources planning and management in the semiarid Wei River basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A spatial analysis of hydro‐climatic and vegetation condition trends in the Yellow River basin

Stream‐gauge data indicate that the flow of the Yellow River has declined during the past several decades. Zero flow in sections of the river channel, i.e. the Yellow River drying‐up phenomenon, has occurred since the 1970s. In this paper we present an analysis of changes in the spatial patterns of climatic and vegetation condition data in the Yellow River basin based on data from meteorological stations and satellites. The climatic data are from 1960 to 2000 and the vegetation condition data are from 1982 to 2000. The angular‐distance‐weighted interpolation method is used to get climatic data coverage from station observations. The spatial distribution of tendency is detected with Student's t‐test. The spatial patterns of climatic and vegetation condition change was analysed together with the statistical data on human activities. The analysis indicates that the precipitation decreases and temperature increases in most parts of the Yellow River basin, the evaporative demand of the atmosphere decreases in the upper reaches and increases in the lower reaches, and human activities have improved the vegetation condition in the irrigation districts. The Loess Plateau, the Tibetan Plateau, and the irrigation districts are respectively suggested as precipitation, temperature, and human activity hot spots of the Yellow River drying‐up phenomenon. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the source region of the Yellow River,China

Much of the discussion on hydrological trends and variability in the source region of the Yellow River centres on the mean values of the mainstream flows. Changes in hydrological extremes in the mainstream as well as in the tributary flows are largely unexplored. Although decreasing water availability has been noted, the nature of those changes is less explored. This article investigates trends and variability in the hydrological regimes (both mean values and extreme events) and their links with the local climate in the source region of the Yellow River over the last 50 years (1959–2008). This large catchment is relatively undisturbed by anthropogenic influences such as abstraction and impoundments, enabling the characterization of widely natural, climate‐driven trends. A total of 27 hydrological variables were used as indicators for the analysis. Streamflow records from six major headwater catchments and climatic data from seven stations were studied. The trend results vary considerably from one river basin to another, and become more accentuated with longer time period. Overall, the source region of the Yellow River is characterized by an overall tendency towards decreasing water availability. Noteworthy are strong decreasing trends in the winter (dry season) monthly flows of January to March and September as well as in annual mean flow, annual 1‐, 3‐, 7‐, 30‐ and 90‐day maxima and minima flows for Maqu and Tangnag catchments over the period 1959–2008. The hydrological variables studied are closely related to precipitation in the wet season (June, July, August and September), indicating that the widespread decrease in wet season precipitation is expected to be associated with significant decrease in streamflow. To conclude, decreasing precipitation, particularly in the wet season, along with increasing temperature can be associated with pronounced decrease in water resources, posing a significant challenge to downstream water uses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河径流量的历史演变规律及成因

基于黄河上、中和下游的径流及气候资料，对径流的年代际变化规律及与气候变化的关系进行了分析.结果表明：黄河流域的径流均存在显著的年代际变化趋势，径流的显著特征是从20世纪80年代开始的减少趋势，但并未达到历史的最低，径流减少的趋势在下游比上游更显著，而这种变化趋势与流域的气候变化趋势基本一致，说明在年代际尺度上，径流的变化主要受气候的控制；在不同季节，这种关系有明显差异，如在冬季两者的变化趋势有较大差异.分析还发现，近年来流域地表的干化是流域径流减少的原因，气温的升高更加剧了流域地表干化.     

Temporal trends of hydro‐climatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and vegetation changes in the Yiluo River basin,China

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River below Sanmenxia Dam. Changes of the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin, influenced by the climatic variability and human activities, can directly affect ecological integrity in the lower reach of the Yellow River. Understanding the impact of the climatic variability and human activities on the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin is especially important to maintain the ecosystem integrity and sustain the society development in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin. In this study, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and runoff during 1961–2000 in the Yiluo River basin were explored by the Mann‐Kendall method (M‐K method), Yamamoto method and linear fitted model. The impacts of the climatic variability and vegetation changes on the annual runoff were discussed by the empirical model and simple water balance model and their contribution to change of annual runoff have been estimated. Results indicated that (i) significant upwards trend for air temperature and significant downwards trend both for precipitation and ET₀ were detected by the M‐K method at 95% confidence level. And the consistent trends were obtained by the linear fitted model; (ii) the abrupt change started from 1987 detected by the M‐K method and Yamamoto method, and so the annual runoff during 1961–2000 was divided into two periods: baseline period (1961–1986) and changeable period (1987–2000); and (iii) the vegetation changes were the main cause for change of annual runoff from baseline period to changeable period, and climatic variability contributed a little to the change of annual runoff of the Yiluo River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio-temporal variation and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the Taihu Basin, China

Long-term trend and abrupt changes of major climate variables in the Taihu Basin were investigated based on the mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine duration at six meteorological stations from 1954 to 2006. Results showed that the long-term trend for annual precipitation was not statistically significant during the past 53?years, but a wetter tendency was detected and the increasing centre for annual precipitation was located in the southeast of the study area. Mean air temperature has increased by 1.43°C, similar trends were also identified for maximum and minimum air temperature, which have increased by 1.06 and 1.54°C, respectively, while DTR exhibited a slight decreasing trend with a rate of about ?0.09°C/(10?year). The annual mean relative humidity and sunshine duration exhibited a decreasing trend, with Kendall slope values of ?0.99%/10?year and ?7.797?h/10?year, respectively. Examination of long-range dependence showed that all climate variables exhibited strong persistence at annual scale except minimum air temperature. Detection of abrupt changes using nonparametric Mann–Kendall and Pettitt methods showed different results. Abrupt changes occurred in the 1980s and 2000s for annual precipitation using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall method, while no abrupt changes were detected using the Pettitt method. Abrupt changes of temperature and relative humidity took place in the early 1990s using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall method, which occurred in the late and mid 1980s using the Pettitt method, while abrupt changes of sunshine duration and DTR detected by two methods occurred in the similar period. The result will be helpful for local flood control and drought relief in urban planning and construction under future global climate change.     

Long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with the El Niño–southern oscillation

The plausible long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) are investigated by using non‐parametric techniques. It is concluded that a greater number of decreasing trends are observed than are expected to occur by chance. Geographically, the decreasing trend was concentrated in most parts of China, including the Songliao River, Hai River, Huai River, Yellow River, Zhujiang River, and southern part of the Yangtze River basins, whereas an increasing trend appeared primarily in the western and middle parts of China, mainly including the Inland River basin, and the northern part of the Yangtze River basins. Monthly mean precipitation for the summer and early autumn months generally decreased, with the greatest decrease occurring in August. The precipitation in spring from January to April and later autumn, including September and October, tended to increase. The teleconnection between precipitation and ENSO has been investigated by using the non‐parametric Kendall's τ. The correlation coefficients between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation show the areas with positive or negative associations. Approximately 20% of the stations exhibit statistically significant correlations between SOI and precipitation, of which 70% show a negative correlation, with most of them appearing in southeast China and several appearing in northwest and northeast China. Similar regional patterns are also observed when the precipitation records are further subdivided into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. Statistical tests for the three kinds of time series were carried out using the non‐parametric Wilcoxon rank‐sum test, and it is noted that the stations with significant differences in precipitation averages are mainly marked in the Yellow River basin and south China. The frequencies of below‐ and above‐average precipitation that occurred during the El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated as well. The result shows that greater precipitation may be associated with El Niño episodes in south China, but drought may easily occur during El Niño episodes in the Yellow River basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of climate and land-use change on green-water variations in the Middle Yellow River,China

Abstract

Water resources management should cover both blue water and green water. For green-water management at the river drainage basin scale, the green-water coefficient (C _gw) is adopted, defined as the ratio of annual green water to annual precipitation. Based on data from the Middle Yellow River basin, China, for the period 1950 to 2007, we studied the temporal variation in C _gw in response to some influencing factors. A decreasing trend in C _gw was found. The influence of changes in land management on C _gw, reflected by an increase in the area (A _sw) of soil and water conservation measures, is emphasized. Using multiple regression analysis, the contributions of A _sw and the 5-year moving averages of annual precipitation and air temperature were estimated as 51, 37 and 12%, respectively. The results may provide useful information for better management of water resources, including green and blue water flows in the Yellow River basin.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Xu, J.-X., 2013. Effects of climate and land-use change on green-water variations in the Middle Yellow River, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–12.     

Impacts of climate change and hydraulic structures on runoff and sediment discharge in the middle Yellow River

Due to climate change and its aggravation by human activities (e.g. hydraulic structures) over the past several decades, the hydrological conditions in the middle Yellow River have markedly changed, leading to a sharp decrease in runoff and sediment discharge. This paper focused on the impacts of climate change and hydraulic structures on runoff and sediment discharge, and the study area was located in the 3246 km² Huangfuchuan (HFC) River basin. Changes in annual runoff and sediment discharge were initially analysed by using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Pettitt change point test methods. Subsequently, periods of natural and disturbed states were defined. The results showed that both the annual runoff and sediment discharge presented statistically significant decreasing trends. However, compared with the less remarkable decline in annual rainfall, it was inferred that hydraulic structures might be another important cause for the sharp decrease in runoff and sediment discharge in this region. Consequently, sediment‐trapping dams (STDs, a type of large‐sized check dam used to prevent sediment from entering the Yellow River main stem) were considered in this study. Through evaluating the impacts of the variation in rainfall patterns (i.e. amount and intensity) and the STD construction, a positive correlation between rainfall intensity and current STD construction was found. This paper revealed that future soil and water conservation measures should focus on areas with higher average annual rainfall and more rainstorm hours. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trend and persistence of precipitation under climate change scenarios for Kansabati basin,India

With increasing uncertainties associated with climate change, precipitation characteristics pattern are receiving much attention these days. This paper investigated the impact of climate change on precipitation in the Kansabati basin, India. Trend and persistence of projected precipitation based on annual, wet and dry periods were studied using global climate model (GCM) and scenario uncertainty. A downscaling method based on Bayesian neural network was applied to project precipitation generated from six GCMs using two scenarios (A2 and B2). The precipitation values for any of three time periods (dry, wet and annual) do not show significant increasing or decreasing trends during 2001–2050 time period. There is likely an increasing trend in precipitation for annual and wet periods during 2051–2100 based on A2 scenario and a decreasing trend in dry period precipitation based on B2 scenario. Persistence during dry period precipitation among stations varies drastically based on historical data with the highest persistence towards north‐west part of the basin. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.