基于贝叶斯方法的二维大地电磁尖锐边界反演研究

针对常规大地电磁（Magnetotelluric,MT）反演方法对电阻率异常体边界不太敏感的问题,本文尝试基于贝叶斯理论开展二维大地电磁电阻率尖锐边界反演研究.在反演中,模型参数由边界位置及内部电阻率组成,通过贝叶斯理论将模型参数与数据相联系,采用Markov Chain Monte Carlo（MCMC）的Metropolis-Hastings（MH）方法对后验概率密度函数（Posteriori Probability Density,PDD）进行采样.采样过程中无罚值函数约束,完全以数据自身所包含的信息对模型进行约束,同时与有限约束进行比较,并考虑不同起始采样点对结果的影响.以接受率为参考,用模型算例说明MH方法中建议分布函数选择的重要性.当模型参数间相关性较弱时,使用边缘概率分布对采样结果进行分析.该方法能给出模型参数的分布范围,并给出该模型参数范围对应的数据范围.通过与已知模型的对比及数据拟合情况分析检验了该反演方法的有效性.该方法有助于提高大地电磁尖锐边界反演的分辨能力.     

浙北及邻近地区应力场数值模拟与地震危险区预测

根据构造地质学、地震地质学的考察和观测结果,结合构造单元、地震活动分区和研究区位置确定计算模型的范围,选定一个构造骨架,确定计算模型的边界形状和几何参数。然后参考地震震源机制解结果和新构造运动特征,选定模型边界条件,参考岩石力学实验结果,确定模型的物理参数,最后利用线弹性二维有限元程度计算了各节点位移、各单元应力应变及应变能增量。通过分析应用应场和应变能增量划分出２个地震危险区。     

基于准三维有限元方法建立的地震活动模型

基于有限元方法,参照细胞自动机模型,建立了一个地震活动演化的动力学模型.在这个模型中,根据边界条件和单元介质参数的分布,利用有限元方法确定各单元的应力增长速率.每个单元设定初始应力和摩擦因数,利用破裂准则可得到单元破裂所需时间.当单元破裂后,将破裂单元作为内部边界,利用有限元方法计算由于这个单元破裂对系统其他单元造成的应力调整.根据上述规则,建立一个由30×40个节点组成,在定常位移速率边界条件作用下的地震活动模型,探讨了区域应力场的动态演化、地震活动图像和各种参数变化对地震活动的影响.结果表明该模型在研究地震活动方面有一定优势并具有实用价值.     

行星际背景太阳风的三维MHD数值模拟

近地空间的太阳风参数预报具有重要的科学研究意义和实际应用价值,三维磁流体力学（MHD）数值模拟是太阳风参数预报的重要手段.本文建立了一套基于经验模型的三维MHD数值模型.模型的内边界设置在0.1天文单位（AU）处,在六片网格系统下利用TVD Lax-Friedrich格式求解理想MHD方程组,采用扩散法消除磁场的散度.模型以GONG的观测磁图作为输入数据,利用经验模型并结合卫星观测特征确定内边界条件.边界条件中保留了6个可调参数,以便适当调整参数使其方便适合模拟不同太阳活动期的太阳风.利用该模型分别模拟了2007年和2016年的背景太阳风,得到了太阳风速度、密度、温度和磁场强度,这些参数与ACE/WIND卫星观测符合较好.     

基于高阶累积量ARMA模型线性非线性结合的地震子波提取方法研究

在地震子波非因果、混合相位的假设下,本文应用自回归滑动平均(ARMA)模型对地震子波进行参数化建模,并提出利用线性(矩阵方程法)和非线性(ARMA拟合方法)相结合的参数估计方式对该模型进行参数估计.在利用矩阵方程法确定模型参数范围的基础上,利用累积量拟合法精确估计参数.理论分析和仿真结果表明,该方式有较好的适应性：一方面提高了子波估计精度,避免单独使用矩阵方程法在短数据地震记录情况下可能带来的估计误差;另一方面提高了子波提取运算效率,降低了ARMA模型拟合方法参数范围确定的复杂性,避免了单纯使用滑动平均（MA）模型拟合法估计过多参数所导致的运算规模过大问题.初步应用结果表明该方法是有效可行的.     

川滇菱形块体东边界各断层段强震演化特征研究

在搜集整理川滇菱形块体东边界断裂带的断裂分段、特征地震和古地震资料基础上,结合各特征参数之间的经验关系,给出东边界断裂带各断层段的长度、宽度、特征地震震级、错动距离等参数.以GPS速度场为约束,利用弹性位错模型反演各断层段深部的年平均滑动速率;针对某些特征地震断层段,根据错动距离及复发周期,确定其位错年积累速率.比较这二种速率之间的定量关系,并利用这一关系给出所有断层段上地震位错年积累速率和地震复发周期.在此基础上,利用弹性位错模型逐次反演1700年以来所有M≥6.8级地震对各断层段位错积累的影响,并将这种影响纳入特征地震的离逝时间中,得到了离逝时间与复发周期的比值,并进行归一化处理最终获取了各断层段的临震危险程度.震例研究表明,当比值为0～1时,断层较安全;当比值〉1时,断层段地震危险程度较高.2009年的结果表明：临震危险程度接近或大于1的断层段有鲜水河断裂带塔公段、安宁河断裂带北段、小江断裂带蒙姑-东川段、东川-寻甸段和宜良-澄江段,其临震危险程度分别为1.35,0.92,1.17,1.04和1.09.     

利用机载SAR震害影像特征快速圈定极震区

利用3m 或6m 分辨率的机载SAR震害影像,获取高烈度区样本单元的房屋毁坏率,并以此为特征参量,根据3 种不同类型地震建立的房屋毁坏率与烈度响应模型,确定相应烈度房屋毁坏率的阈值,最终快速确定极震区并圈定其范围,这对地震抢险救灾具有重要意义     

粘弹性介质P波反射透射系数近似及对比分析

随着油气勘探的发展,勘探的重点已逐渐转向岩性油气藏、隐蔽油气藏.理想弹性介质有时并不能解释许多复杂的实际问题.因此,本文是在粘弹性介质精确Zoeppritz方程的基础上,根据介质的分解理论,将均匀各向同性介质当作背景,将弹性参数的变化和粘弹性参数(品质因子和衰减角)均看成扰动,推导出了P波入射到粘弹性界面的反射透射系数近似公式,并利用四类AVO典型界面模型对反射系数近似公式进行分析与比较,一方面验证粘弹性近似式的正确性,另一方面进一步得到粘弹性介质地震波反射特征,为以后粘弹性近似式的应用提供了理论指导.     

三层残差点质量模型的边界效应分析及有效性准则构建

为了满足点质量法应用需求,研究了三层残差点质量模型恢复效果,定量给出了边界效应发生范围和大小,同时构建了残差点质量法的适用性准则.利用Sandwell教授团队提供的全球重力异常数据,对重力异常变化程度不同的三个地区进行仿真实验,在满足恢复精度的条件下,确定了点质量模型在不同区间里的有效性准则.数值实验表明,点质量分辨率越高,区域重力异常变化越剧烈,其产生的边界效应越强.边界效应大致出现在距离边界时,且在距离边界时变得显著剧烈.     

一种板块边界断层运动的力学模型

提出了一种描述板块边界断层运动的力学模型,即将板块边界的地壳运动表述为板块的相对刚体运动加边界断层面上的负位错分布。应用该模型描述北美板块与太平洋板块边界处的圣安德烈斯断层带,并用该地区近３０年的大地测量数据反演了模型参数。研究结果表明,运用该模型方法可利用测量数据确定沿板块边界断层带的相对闭销区,从而进行中长期地震预报。     

激发极化法探测油气田——效果及异常模式探讨

本文是在20多个油气藏上作激发极化法找油气的试验结果。在华北的第三系油田,四川的中生界油气田,新疆的中生、古生界大逆掩断层带油田,以及华东的第三系油田上试验,普遍得到好的效果。各地区的充电率、电阻率及金属因数等参数的反应特点有差异,异常明显程度受盖层影响很大。该方法可以探测到埋深不小于3000m的油气藏,并在许多油气藏发现了具有共同特征的典型异常模式:它在浅部中心部位表现为高阻,高极化;两侧为低阻,低极化;深部表现为低阻,高极化;深浅两带之间为过渡带,异常无固定的特征。此模式可用以分辨油气藏异常,选择合适工作极距,以及研究引起异常的机制等。     

富含煤层气储层的叠前地震反演预测方法研究——以山西晋东南测区为例

叠前地震反演技术能够将地震中振幅、偏移距和入射角等多种有效信息与油气的敏感参数结合起来,在有效识别油气藏"甜点"方面虽发挥了重要的作用,但对于煤层气的有效预测仍需研究.针对煤层气与石油天然气的赋存地质条件不同,本文以山西沁水盆地煤层气地震资料为例,借鉴叠前地震反演技术的多参数预测思想,通过模型正演和实测资料处理,得到纵波、横波速度和密度等不同的数据体,利用数据体和弹性参数关系式,采用AkiRichard近似公式与叠前宽角度反演联合的方法,寻找出富含煤层气储层的敏感参数.从而实现富含煤层气储层的有效预测.经与测井曲线结果对比,吻合率较高,说明了该方法具有可行性与实用性.     

AUTOREGRESSIVE PATTERN RECOGNITION APPLIED TO THE DELIMITATION OF OIL AND GAS RESERVOIRS*

It is often difficult to precisely determine the boundaries of oil and gas reservoirs in the horizontal and vertical directions. Autoregressive pattern recognition is used to reveal lateral facies variations and to specify reservoir boundaries. The method is based on the calculation of autoregressive coefficients for short trace sectors between the top and bottom boundaries of the reservoir. These coefficients are determined by applying the maximum entropy principle. Once these coefficients are known, an estimate can be made of the power spectra of these trace sectors. Then these coefficients will act as characters for a pattern recognition algorithm. A decision criterion is used to distinguish the trace sector corresponding to layers impregnated with oil or gas and those impregnated with water. Two examples are given to show how autoregressive pattern recognition allows to accurately delimit gas or oil reservoirs.     

（T2,D）二维核磁共振测井识别储层流体的方法

当地层孔隙中油气和水同时存在时,在核磁共振T₂分布上不同流体信号往往重叠,很难有效识别.本文采用改变回波间隔测量多组自旋回波串序列实现了（T₂,D）二维核磁共振方法,为有效识别储层流体提供了基础.通过数值模拟系统研究了（T₂,D）方法在不同储层、不同测量信噪比以及不同外加磁场梯度条件下识别流体的效果.结果表明：（T₂,D）方法识别中、低黏度油层具有优势,随着信噪比增加和外加磁场梯度加大,分辨油和水的效果将变好.在气层,对磁场梯度有一定要求,并且,测量数据的信噪比越高,分辨气与水的效果越好,当测量数据信噪比低于70时（T₂,D）方法在气层可能失效.在2MHz共振频率下,利用MARAN核磁共振岩芯分析仪器,对含顺磁性物质的饱和流体岩样进行了实验测量,验证了（T₂,D）方法的有效性.     

Generalized effective medium resistivity model for low resistivity reservoir

With the advancement in oil exploration,producible oil and gas are being found in low resistivity reservoirs,which may otherwise be erroneously thought as water zones from their resistivity.However,the evaluation of low resistivity reservoirs remains difficult from log interpretation.Since low resistivity in hydrocarbon bearing sands can be caused by dispersed clay,laminated shale,conductive matrix grains,microscopic capillary pores and high saline water,a new resistivity model is required for more accurate hydrocarbon saturation prediction for low resistivity formations.Herein,a generalized effective medium resistivity model has been proposed for low resistivity reservoirs,based on experimental measurements on artificial low resistivity shaly sand samples,symmetrical anisotropic effective medium theory for resistivity interpretations,and geneses and conductance mechanisms of low resistivity reservoirs.By analyzing effects of some factors on the proposed model,we show theoretically the model can describe conductance mechanisms of low resistivity reservoirs with five geneses.Also,shale distribution largely affects water saturation predicted by the model.Resistivity index decreases as fraction and conductivity of laminated shale,or fraction of dispersed clay,or conductivity of rock matrix grains increases.Resistivity index decreases as matrix percolation exponent,or percolation rate of capillary bound water increases,and as percolation exponent of capillary bound water,or matrix percolation rate,or free water percolation rate decreases.Rock sample data from low resistivity reservoirs with different geneses and interpretation results for log data show that the proposed model can be applied in low resistivity reservoirs containing high salinity water,dispersed clay,microscopic capillary pores,laminated shale and conductive matrix grains,and thus is considered as a generalized resistivity model for low resistivity reservoir evaluation.     

低电阻率油气层物理参数变化机理研究

研究了淡水环境下富含粘土矿物、细颗粒砂岩低电阻率油气层. 分析了粘土的附加导电性,认为粘土质量百分数高且富含伊利石和蒙脱石的地层中,若地层水质量浓度小于15g/L等效NaCl盐溶液时,粘土的附加导电性是造成油气层电阻率低的首要原因. 同时分析了细颗粒、粘土质量百分数不高的储层,高的毛细管压力使束缚水饱和度很高,同样能形成低电阻率油气层. 储层中粘土质量百分数的多少对储层岩石电性特征(I-Sw曲线形态)有重要影响,可用于指导测井资料解释模型的选择.     

Accumulation characteristics and the main controlling factors of Lunnan multilayer oil province,Tarim Basin,China

Lunnan region is a large-scale paleohigh with many coexisting oil and gas bearing series.At present, about 2 billions tons of proved,probable and possible oil and gas reverses have been proved there.Eight oil and gas bearing series have been found in the Ordovician,Carboniferous,Triassic and Jurassic of Lunnan region,they all bear the characteristics of large-scale multilayer oil-gas province.Ordovician is the main reservoir series where over 0.8 billion tons of oil geologic reserves were discovered,and a super large-scale marine carbonate oil and gas field has formed.Reservoir space of the carbonate reservoirs is mainly composed of dissolved hole,dissolved pore and fracture in Lunnan paleo-burial hill.Generally, dissolved holes are widely distributed among them.Reservoir developments are mainly controlled by karstification and tectonic disruption.Due to the similar geochemical characters,the Ordovician,Carboniferous,Triassic and Jurassic oil and gas reservoirs present the same oil source rock of Mid-Upper Ordovician,the latter except Ordovician are mostly of secondary oil and gas reservoirs migrated vertically by faults during the process of multiple phase tectonic movement,adjustment and reconstruction. Lunnan composite oil and gas accumulation region is situated in the vicinity of large-scale hydrocarbon generation depressions in three directions,ample oil and gas from hydrocarbon generation depressions supplied the adjacent oil and gas reservoirs once.Hereby,the succeed paleohigh is the long-term hydrocarbon accumulation region,which is favor for the formations of high quality reservoirs,fault systems and huge-scale composite oil and gas accumulation.     

Accumulation characteristics and the main controlling factors of Lunnan multilayer oil province,Tarim Basin,China

Lunnan region is a large-scale paleohigh with many coexisting oil and gas bearing series. At present, about 2 billions tons of proved, probable and possible oil and gas reverses have been proved there. Eight oil and gas bearing series have been found in the Ordovician, Carboniferous, Triassic and Jurassic of Lunnan region, they all bear the characteristics of large-scale multilayer oil-gas province. Ordovician is the main reservoir series where over 0.8 billion tons of oil geologic reserves were discovered, and a super large-scale marine carbonate oil and gas field has formed. Reservoir space of the carbonate reservoirs is mainly composed of dissolved hole, dissolved pore and fracture in Lunnan paleo-burial hill. Generally, dissolved holes are widely distributed among them. Reservoir developments are mainly controlled by karstification and tectonic disruption. Due to the similar geochemical characters, the Ordovician, Carboniferous, Triassic and Jurassic oil and gas reservoirs present the same oil source rock of Mid-Upper Ordovician, the latter except Ordovician are mostly of secondary oil and gas reservoirs migrated vertically by faults during the process of multiple phase tectonic movement, adjustment and reconstruction. Lunnan composite oil and gas accumulation region is situated in the vicinity of large-scale hydrocarbon generation depressions in three directions, ample oil and gas from hydrocarbon generation depressions supplied the adjacent oil and gas reservoirs once. Hereby, the succeed paleohigh is the long-term hydrocarbon accumulation region, which is favor for the formations of high quality reservors, fault systems and huge-scale composite oil and gas accumulation.     

Accumulation characteristics and the main controlling factors of Lunnan multilayer oil province,Tarim Basin,China

Lunnan region is a large-scale paleohigh with many coexisting oil and gas bearing series. At present, about 2 billions tons of proved, probable and possible oil and gas reverses have been proved there. Eight oil and gas bearing series have been found in the Ordovician, Carboniferous, Triassic and Jurassic of Lunnan region, they all bear the characteristics of large-scale multilayer oil-gas province. Ordovician is the main reservoir series where over 0.8 billion tons of oil geologic reserves were discovered, and a super large-scale marine carbonate oil and gas field has formed. Reservoir space of the carbonate reservoirs is mainly composed of dissolved hole, dissolved pore and fracture in Lunnan paleo-burial hill. Generally, dissolved holes are widely distributed among them. Reservoir developments are mainly controlled by karstification and tectonic disruption. Due to the similar geochemical characters, the Ordovician, Carboniferous, Triassic and Jurassic oil and gas reservoirs present the same oil source rock of Mid-Upper Ordovician, the latter except Ordovician are mostly of secondary oil and gas reservoirs migrated vertically by faults during the process of multiple phase tectonic movement, adjustment and reconstruction. Lunnan composite oil and gas accumulation region is situated in the vicinity of large-scale hydrocarbon generation depressions in three directions, ample oil and gas from hydrocarbon generation depressions supplied the adjacent oil and gas reservoirs once. Hereby, the succeed paleohigh is the long-term hydrocarbon accumulation region, which is favor for the formations of high quality reservors, fault systems and huge-scale composite oil and gas accumulation.

     

基于声学全波形反演的油气藏地震成像方法

岩性油气藏在我国天然气勘探开发中占有非常重要的位置,其分布区域的成像是合理布设井位,提高钻井成功率的关键之一.本文首先基于地下介质的声学近似和波场回传理论,利用频率域单程声波方程延拓计算地震波场,进行全波形反演,获得地层密度和体积模量的定量成像,并依据油气藏物性特征和流体饱和多孔介质岩石物理模型,简要讨论了孔隙度和饱和度与密度及体积模量的关系,明确了地震油气藏成像新概念.在此基础上,定义了基于流体体积模量和孔隙度的成像函数,进行油气藏成像.理论模型计算表明该方法是可行的.通过对西部地区某气田二维地震数据处理,实现了致密砂岩气藏成像,钻井结果证实了气藏区域成像位置的准确性和方法的有效性.