地震序列较强余震最小二乘拟合预测的方法研究

本研究给出了针对地震序列较强余震发生时间进行快速预测的一种方法,即最小二乘拟合预测方法.该方法包括:最小二乘拟合预测模型的建立、预测模型的各种可信性检验及模型预测等内容.震例研究表明,该方法在大(强)地震现场震情分析中可望发挥积极作用.     

地震序列较强余震快速响应灰色预测的方法探讨

将主余震型地震序列早期较强余震的发生过程,视为一个复杂的灰色系统．介绍了应用灰色预测理论,对其较强余震进行预测的方法．通过对1998年张北6.2级地震序列检验性预测,表明该方法对于探讨地震序列较强余震快速响应预测问题,或许具有一定的积极意义．      

2005年第23卷《华北地震科学》总目次

第1期构造“稳定”区强震长期预测的简便途径—以张北地震为例刁桂苓张四昌高景春王勤彩赵英萍(1)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………地震序列较强余震灰色及最小二乘拟合预测方法的应用研究平建军刘荣环贾炯曹肃朝王立军(6)………………………………………………………………………………………………………………地震序列较强余震灰色预测计算软件简介及其操作说明平建军贾炯刘荣环曹肃朝王立军(13)………………………………………………………………………………………………………     

强余震“等待时间”判别方案预报效能的研究

通过系统清理１９９６年以来中国大陆７０个Ｍｓ≥５．５级地震序列的“强余震”Ｌｇ△ｔ－Ｌｇｔ关系，对强余“等待时间”判别方案预报效能进行了评估，结果表明，其回顾性预报的Ｗａｌｌｅｎ评分为：６级以上地震序列Ｖ＝０．６０，５．５级以上地震序列为０．４４，说明其在地震序列类型判断方面有一定的效能，对实际震例分析得出，该方案出判定主余型序列方面成功率较高，而对于双震或多震序列，有时会产生某些误判；对６级以上     

对1989年大同－阳高地震序列两次强余震发震时间的灰色预测

应用灰色系统理论对１９８９年大同－阳高６．１级地震序列两次强余震（系指Ｍ＿Ｌ≥４．７）的发震时间进行了尝试性预测，其结果与事实比较吻合，表明该方法在震后短时间内，用仅有的部分序列资料来估计其发展趋势，具有一定的实际意义。     

四川沐川5.7级震群子序列的震源参数变化

1993－1995年发生在四川沐川县的5．7级震群，由3次5．0级以上地震序列构成。1993年首发5．0级地震序列频率衰减慢，1994年5．7级主震序列衰减快，1995年5．0级强余震序列双衰减缓慢。首发5．0级地震前，区域地震活动增强显著。但在5．7级主震和强余震前的震区地震活动不突出。震源机制解给出的主压应力方向为北西向，呈近走滑兼倾滑型，利用小震波形记录资料，研究了Pn,Pg,Sg波段拐角频率和应力降值随时间的变化。各波段计算值变化幅度大体一致，形态略有差异，首发5．0级地震前起伏较大，在5．7级主震前后变化不显著。这与此期间地震活动图像的变化过程是一致的。     

德令哈6．6级地震前地震活动及地震序列特征

德令哈6．6级地震发生在青海省地震局2003年度会商确定的应注意地区内，震前测震学出现多项中短期异常。该地震序列从其能量释放比、震级差均符合主震一余震型判断指标，为主震-余震型序列。序列跟踪工作总结出该序列早期阶段(20天内)预测强余震的几项指标。     

地震序列的后续显著地震的预测研究

研究了我国大陆37次6级以上地震序列的后续显著地震的时间分布特点及其跟踪预测方法．结果表明:跟踪地震序列应变释放随时间的变化是预测后续显著地震的一个重要途径；而对于超晚期强余震的预测，则需要从区域地震活动性分析着手．      

2003年9月27日中蒙俄交界处7.9级大震的预测回顾

回顾了我们对2003年9月27日中蒙俄交界处7．9级地震(矩震级为8级)的预测。从Corioli力观点讨论了该震的强余震(矩震级7．3级)。     

1990年4月17日新疆乌恰6.4级地震序列特征

1990年4月17日乌恰6.4级地震序列有以下特征:(1)主震型序列;(2)强余震前小地震震中向强余震的震中附近迁移;(3)余震频度衰减快;(4)余震在主震和最大余震之间活动;(5)较大余震存在“密集-平静-发震”的规律;(6)存在晚期较强余震。     

Comparison between the Fourier finite-difference method and the generalized-screen method

The Fourier finite‐difference propagator and the generalized‐screen propagator are two general high‐order forms of one‐way dual‐domain methods. We compare these two propagators mainly on phase accuracy, computational efficiency and 3D extension. A comparison of phase accuracy shows that the high‐order generalized‐screen propagator is preferable to the Fourier finite‐difference propagator for heterogeneous media with a weak velocity contrast and wide dip angle. With increasing velocity contrast, the accuracy improvement gained by the high‐order generalized‐screen propagator declines rapidly. The Fourier finite‐difference propagator is more robust and flexible to lateral velocity variations than the generalized‐screen propagator. The 2D Fourier finite‐difference propagator is superior to the 2D generalized‐screen propagator when the velocity contrast is stronger than 23%. Despite the two‐way splitting error, the 3D Fourier finite‐difference propagator is more accurate than the second‐order generalized‐screen propagator when the velocity contrast is stronger than 20% and is more accurate than the fourth‐order generalized‐screen propagator when the velocity contrast is stronger than 40%. Numerical experiments on the SEG/EAGE salt model demonstrate that the Fourier finite‐difference propagator behaves better than the generalized‐screen propagator when imaging steep salt boundary and faults beneath the salt body. Under the same hardware and software conditions, the computational cost of the Fourier finite‐difference propagator in our implementation is greater than that of the second‐order generalized‐screen propagator but smaller than that of the third‐order generalized‐screen propagator. Compared with the Fourier finite‐difference propagator, the generalized‐screen propagator requires fewer grid points per wavelength and has more potential to improve running speed in the presence of a much faster Fourier transform. These analyses are applicable for both forward modelling and depth migration.     

比例边界有限元子结构法研究

比例边界有限元法最初应用于土-结构的相互作用分析，经过近几年的完善和发展，如今已经能够应用到其他很多领域。但是因为比例边界有限元理论是基于相似性要求的，使得其在处理几何形状复杂的结构时，会有很大的局限性，从而在某些领域的应用仍旧受到限制。同时由于其全时空耦合，导致大量计算量和工作量，也是其应用受限的一个原因。采用子结构法，打破这些局限性，并且分别针对有限域、无限域的问题，对比例边界有限元子结构法进行了研究，得出了有利于比例边界有限元法在工程实践中应用的结论，为其在实际工程应用中提供了可靠的依据和规律。     

共聚焦点叠前深度偏移速度估计方法研究

基于共聚焦点技术可以将叠前深度偏移分为激发聚焦与接收聚焦两个过程,通过逆时聚焦算子的作用实现.由速度模型驱动逆时聚焦算子的更新,合成DTS面板,根据等时原理,通过DTS面板中时移曲线的曲率变化来交互的更新速度场.但是当地下介质稍为复杂的情况下,从面板中拾取分析点对应的时移曲线变得非常困难.针对这个问题,本文通过对分析点在限定深度和速度范围内合成的DTS面板零时刻振幅进行叠加,由其值的变化来确定分析点的合理位置及上层介质速度.     

NWMEFENS方法的数值稳定性

概要总结了NWMEFENS方法及其主要创新点.对采用该方法求解点源出平面波动问题时的数值稳定性和精度进行了数值试验研究.研究结果表明:对于合理的时空离散步距,该方法的阻尼稳定性、近场稳定性较之现有同类方法具有显著提高.     

Analysis of the magnetometric vibration method

n¶rt;m mu ¶rt; mu uau aumma. mu aum u mu u m u mu auauu m¶rt;a. u¶rt;m u naam nm nmmuna uau aumma.     

Assessment of earthquake hazard by simultaneous use of the statistical method and the method of fuzzy mathematics

A probabilistic method and a retrieval method of fuzzy information are simultaneously studied for assessment of earthquake hazard, or earthquake prediction. Statistical indices of regional seismicity in three adjacent time intervals are used to predict an earthquake in the next interval. The indices are earthquake frequency, the maximum magnitude, and a parameter related to the average magnitude (orb-value) and their time derivatives. Applying the probabilistic method, we can estimate a probability for a large earthquake with magnitude larger than a certain threshold occurring in the next time interval in a given region. By using the retrieval method of fuzzy information we can classify time intervals into several classes according to the regional seismic activity in each time interval and then evaluate whether or not the next time interval belongs to seismically hazardous time interval with a large earthquake. Some examples of applying both methods to the North section of the North-South Seismic Zone in China are shown. The results obtained are in good agreement with actual earthquake history. A comparison of the probabilistic method with the method of fuzzy mathematics is made, and it is recommended that earthquake hazard be assessed by simultaneous use of both methods.     

On the resolving power of the VLF method

In the paper, the mathematical tools, used for the modelling of the electromagnetic field of the harmonic plane wave in the two-dimensional inhomogeneous medium (the case ofE-polarization), are presented. Further, the resolving power of some parameters, that are measured in the VLF and VLF-R methods, is compared in the case of two vertical conductive dykes. To this aim, all the usual parameters of the VLF method and the most important parameter of the VLF-R method () have been chosen. Two groups of models that differ in resistivities have been considered. In each of the groups the distance of the dykes is variable. The parameters |H _y|, which has shown most promising in this respect, is examined also from the point of view of the sensibility to geological noise. The results of the modelling are illustrated by two examples of the results of field measurements.     

指零法和近零法观测基线值对比分析

引言 在“九五”项目的实施中，我国地磁观测台站已基本上配备了数字化记录的磁通门磁力仪和分量质子旋进磁力仪。高精度的CTM-DI仪磁通门经纬仪和G856质子磁力仪等绝对观测仪器也得到了普遍应用。有些台站仪器配置甚至更高，进口相对记录仪和绝对观测仪同国产仪器并行运行。但是，地磁观测任务决定了台站不能在架设数字化仪器的同时，立即停止原有模拟记录仪器，也就是说，各套仪器必须有一个并行运行期，这样做有利于数据对比分析及观测数据的连续可靠，进而分析仪器本身的性能，进一步做好数字化改造工作。在地磁台站，数字化改造改变…     

Seabed stress determinations using the inertial dissipation method and the turbulent kinetic energy method

Direct measurements of seabed stress are difficult, especially in field conditions. Several methods for estimating these stresses using current meter data are available. Two of these methods, the Inertial Dissipation Method and the Turbulent Kinetic Energy Method, are described below, and a Matlab program is used to analyse data from a wave-current environment.     

Galerkin finite element method and the groundwater flow equation: 1. Convergence of the method

This paper is concerned with the convergence of the Galerkin finite element method applied to a groundwater flow problem containing a borehole, with special reference to quadrature effects and the accuracy of the solution. It is shown that there exists an optimal quadrature rule for every choice of piecewise polynomial basis functions. Another interesting result proved here is that, in a direct application of the method the accuracy is very nearly independent of the degree of the polynomial basis functions, but strongly dependent on the distance of the borehole from the boundary if this is small.