伴随冬季北太平洋副热带海洋锋强度变化的大气扰动异常及对中纬度大气平均场的影响

中纬度海洋热力状况异常影响大气主要通过两种途径:非绝热加热的直接强迫作用和大气瞬变涡旋反馈的间接强迫作用,而后者的作用并没有被很好地认识.为了进一步理解间接强迫作用的物理机制,本文利用观测资料分析和区域大气模式模拟,研究了伴随冬季北太平洋副热带海洋锋强度变化的中纬度大气场异常,特别是对流层中高层不同频率的涡旋扰动活动的异常.实际观测和数值试验结果均表明,当北太平洋副热带海表面温度锋偏强时,其上空的中纬度大气经向温度梯度增强;对应此时的大气斜压性增强,且中纬度大气西风急流整层加速;然而增强的大气斜压性并不对应一致性增强的大气涡旋扰动活动.中纬度大气的涡旋扰动根据其生命周期,进一步划分为高频(2~7天)和低频(10~90天)涡旋扰动.研究结果表明偏强的北太平洋副热带海洋锋对应着增强的中纬度大气高频涡旋扰动和减弱的低频涡旋扰动;其中,中纬度大气高频扰动活动的增强,将有利于削弱中纬度大气经向温度梯度,从而减弱中纬度大气斜压性;而高频扰动对纬向风倾向项的正贡献,有利于中纬度急流中心北侧及下游区域的西风加速,形成中纬度西风相当正压结构的增强;大气低频扰动的减弱,对中纬度大气纬向风倾向项产生负贡献,不利于急流的纬向均匀化,而其热力强迫异常则有利于维持中纬度对流层中层大气的经向温度梯度.     

南极绕极流对风应力强迫的延时斜压响应

南极绕极流（Antarctic Circumpolar Current——ACC）对风应力强迫存在两种响应,即正压过程的即时响应与斜压过程的延时响应．主要关注南极绕极流的斜压不稳定机制,即纬向风应力的增强导致南大洋等密面斜率加大,平均流更趋于斜压不稳定;斜压不稳定产生中尺度涡,使得平均流势能向涡旋能量（势能和动能）转化,造成了ACC体积输运在时间上滞后两年的显著减弱．ACC输运与纬向风应力的这种滞后反相关关系可以很好地解释ACC体积输运在近20a保持基本稳定的现象．     

西北太平洋热带气旋活动影响区域大尺度环流的数值模拟研究

本文利用"模式手术"方法研究了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)对东亚—西北太平洋区域大尺度环流的影响.结果表明,夏季频繁的西北太平洋TC活动导致东亚夏季风增强,季风槽加深;西太平洋副热带高压东退,位置偏北;东亚副热带高空急流强度增强,北太平洋(东亚大陆)上急流轴偏北(偏南);热带地区(副热带地区)的对流层中低层出现异常上升气流(下沉气流),并且从低纬向高纬呈现异常上升气流和异常下沉气流交替分布特征.在中国东南沿海,TC降水导致夏季降水量明显增加;而在长江中下游和华北地区,TC活动引起的异常下沉气流使夏季降水量显著减少.因此,夏季西北太平洋TC活动对东亚—西北太平洋区域气候有显著影响.     

冬季大气斜压性对黑潮延伸体年代际异常响应的维持机制研究

黑潮延伸体(Kuroshio Extension,KE)海域附近具有强烈的大气斜压性可显著影响北太平洋上空风暴轴异常,因而有必要研究KE海区附近斜压性的特征和维持机制.本文设计数值试验并结合高分辨率ERA-Interim资料研究了大气斜压性对KE年代际海温变率模态(KEDV-induced SSTA,Kuroshio Extension Decadal variability SSTA)中的中尺度海洋锋(KEDV-induced Meso-scale SST Front,KMSTF)的响应特征和维持机制.研究发现,表层斜压性对KMSTF的响应分布相对KMSTF经向梯度的分布偏南,平流过程的响应起主要作用.表层感热通量的响应相对KMSTF分布偏北,表层温度的响应分布与KMSTF分布的位相差异是导致其偏北分布的主要原因.积云对流过程、垂直热量输送和月内尺度扰动向极热量输送均可削弱表层斜压性,而感热通量加热可加强表层斜压性.研究对流层斜压性的特征发现,斜压大值随高度向北移动,极值在边界层顶附近,积云动量再分配影响的月内尺度扰动通量经向辐合有一定的贡献.同时,相对KMSTF暖海温异常偏南分布的低SLP(Surface Level Pressure)可引发经圈平面内次级环流,并将月内尺度扰动热量、水汽和动量向高纬度输送,从而引起斜压性随高度向北分布并增强斜压性.此外还发现,积云对流过程引发的非绝热加热通过扰动热力作用使高层急流向北偏移.     

ENSO在青藏高原积雪与西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数关系中的作用

已有研究表明,青藏高原冬季积雪与随后台风季节西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数之间具有典型的负相关.本文基于长时间观测资料对二者关系进行再探讨,发现两者的年际关系在20世纪90年代初发生了跃变,即青藏高原冬季积雪与随后台风季节西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数之间显著的负相关仅存在于20世纪90年代初之后(1993~2012年),而20世纪90年代初之前(1976~1992年)二者的联系较弱.进一步本文对引起这种跃变的可能原因进行了分析,发现中部型ENSO在加强青藏高原积雪与西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数关系中起到了至关重要的作用.1993~2012年间,青藏高原积雪与中部型ENSO存在显著的负相关.在青藏高原积雪偏多年(少),中部型ENSO多为冷位相(暖位相),这种分布一方面加强了青藏高原积雪与纬向海陆热力差异继而与西北太平洋夏季风的联系,另一方面加强了青藏高原积雪对热带气旋生成相关的动力环境场的调控,因此在这一时段青藏高原积雪与热带气旋生成频数之间的相关得到了显著增强.然而,在前一时段青藏高原积雪与ENSO的联系较弱,青藏高原积雪对西北太平洋夏季风和台风生成区域动力场调控较弱,因而其与热带气旋生成频数之间的关系减弱.此外,通过能量诊断进一步表明,在1993~2012年中部型ENSO的作用主要是通过加强西北太平洋纬向风的正压能量转化来实现的.结果将为提高热带气旋短期气候预测水平提供一定的理论基础.     

热带气旋与多尺度气候变异:2018年西北太平洋台风季概况

2018年是西北太平洋热带气旋异常活跃的一年,该年台风季(6~11月)共有26个热带气旋生成,远超气候平均的22个,是近20年来第二活跃的台风季.2018年,热带气旋多形成于西北太平洋东部和南海北部,台风活动区域偏东北,移动路径多由西北行转为偏北行登陆,造成了中国大陆重大经济损失(约697.3亿元).这一年,多尺度气候变异共同作用引起了西北太平洋季风槽的增强和副热带高压减弱,从而导致了热带气旋异常活跃.在此过程中,年际气候背景条件起了主导作用,而年代际气候变异仅起到了弱的抑制作用.在年际尺度上,一个发展的中太平洋厄尔尼诺事件和正相位的太平洋经向模态(PMM)共同作用形成了2018年有利于热带气旋活动的大尺度环流背景条件.进一步研究表明,中太平洋海温强迫在西北太平洋热带气旋活动中起到了关键调节作用,而PMM通过中太平洋海温间接影响西北太平洋热带气旋活动.在中太平洋厄尔尼诺年,中太平洋海温增暖引起的对流异常通过大气的Gill型-罗斯贝波响应导致了西北太平洋上异常气旋性环流,这使得西北太平洋上副热带高压减弱、季风槽增强东北移,有利于热带气旋在此形成和发展.短期气候及天气变化,如季节内振荡(ISO)和天气尺度扰动(SSD)的活动,与增强的季风槽相互作用,加剧了2018年异常的西北太平洋热带气旋的活动.     

亚洲-太平洋涛动与西北太平洋热带气旋频数的关系

通过对观测资料的分析, 初步探讨了夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动(Asian-Pacific Oscillation, APO)和西北太平洋热带气旋频数的关系, 发现APO强弱的年际变化与西北太平洋热带气旋频数多寡之间具有显著的正相关关系, 夏季APO偏强(弱)时, 西北太平洋热带气旋偏多(少). 研究进一步揭示, APO变化可导致西北太平洋区域主要大气环流系统出现异常, 而大气环流的这种异常变化正是APO与西北太平洋热带气旋频数相联系的原因. 当APO处于正位相时, 西太平洋副热带高压减弱, 位置偏东偏北; 西北太平洋地区高层大气异常辐散, 低层大气异常辐合; 纬向风垂直切变减弱. 这些变化均为西北太平洋热带气旋的形成提供了有利的大气环流条件, 因此, 西北太平洋热带气旋频数偏多. 反之亦然.     

春季Hadley环流异常对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋频数影响的数值模拟试验

观测事实揭示出春季Hadley环流与夏季西北太平洋热带气旋频数之间存在显著的负相关关系.由春季Hadley环流异常引起的西北太平洋地区夏季纬向风垂直切变、大气辐合辐散等的异常变化是这一关系存在的内在原因.本文通过数值试验对这一关系的真实性进行了验证,即利用中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的9层大气环流模式（IAP9L-AGCM）模拟了春季Hadley环流异常偏强情景,并分析了该情景下影响西北太平洋热带气旋生成的环境场的响应.结果表明,在春季Hadley环流偏强情景下,夏季西北太平洋地区纬向风垂直切变幅度加大,低空大气异常辐散,高空大气异常辐合,东亚夏季风减弱,这种环流背景不利于热带气旋生成和发展,因此,西北太平洋热带气旋频数异常偏少.数值模拟结果与已有的诊断结果相吻合,进而证实了春季Hadley环流与夏季西北太平洋热带气旋频数负相关关系的存在.因此,春季Hadley环流信号可以用于西北太平洋热带气旋活动的气候预测.     

斜压大气中热带气旋运动特征的动力分析

从绝热、无摩擦、无环境场作用条件下的原始方程组出发,讨论了热带气旋的动力平衡特征,并分别导出了正、斜压大气中综合描述热带气旋中心强度变化的物理量(dI/dt)及其动力平衡关系式,进而分析了正、斜压大气中的热带气旋强度变化及移动的特征.结果表明:热带气旋的定常运动具有"相当地转风平衡”的特征,其等"压能”线和等位涡线均与流线重合;"β涡旋对”及由高(低)层水平风正(负)垂直切变产生的"切变涡旋对”之间的"通风气流”均使热带气旋的强度减弱,高(低)层涡度的负(正)垂直平流则增强热带气旋的强度;热带气旋的中心有向极、向高(低)层涡度垂直平流的梯(升)度方向移动的趋势,垂直运动及高、低层水平风速垂直切变的非对称结构对热带气旋的移动有影响;"γ效应”则是"通风气流”牵引热带气旋移动的动力机制之一.     

1998年长江流域洪水期大气季节内振荡特征及机理研究

1998年夏季长江流域洪涝灾害的发生与低纬和中高纬低频气旋在长江流域附近地区的汇合过程有关. 用包含18个动力热力因子及南北边界效应的局地经向环流线性诊断模式将各因子作用分解开来, 并根据1998年的NCEP再分析资料找到造成不同纬度低频气旋的产生、经向传播及相互作用的主要过程. 基于数值模式的定量分析结果, 表明低纬地区低频气旋的产生和传播主要与强积云对流有关的潜热加热、反映越赤道气流影响的边界效应及热量垂直输送作用有关; 而中高纬地区低频气旋的产生和传播则主要与反映西风带扰动的西风动量水平输送和温度平流作用有关, 西风带扰动主要体现为鄂霍次克海阻塞高压及东南侧的切断低压. 高低纬低频气旋在长江流域附近地区的合并, 不但为长江流域发生洪涝提供所需的抬升条件, 也为南海地区低层低频反气旋的形成创造了有利条件. 在来自南海低频反气旋西北侧的暖湿气流和位于长江流域的低频气旋上升运动的共同影响下, 长江流域发生了百年一遇的特大洪水.     

Instability of planetary waves in a high vertical resolution model

Abstract

A high vertical resolution model is used to examine the instability of a baroclinic zonal flow and a finite amplitude topographically forced wave. Two families of unstable modes are found, consisting of zonally propagating most unstable modes, and stationary unstable modes. The former have time scale and spatial structure similar to baroclinic synoptic disturbances, but are localized in space due to interaction with the zonally asymmetric forcing. These modes transport heat efficiently in both the zonal and meridional directions. The second family of stationary unstable modes has characteristics of modes of low frequency variability of the atmosphere. They have time scales of 10 days and longer, and are of planetary scale with an equivalent barotropic vertical structure. The horizontal structure resembles blocking flows. They are maintained by available potential energy of the basic wave, and have large zonal heat fluxes. The results for both families of modes are interpreted in terms of an interaction between forcing and baroclinic instability to create favoured regions for eddy development. Applications to baroclinic planetary waves are also considered.     

Hemispheric simulation of the Asian summer monsoon

A three-level, -plane, filtered model is used to simulate the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. A time-averaged initial state, devoid of sub-planetary scale waves, is integrated through 30 days on a 5° latitude-longitude grid. Day 25 through day 30 integrations are then repeated on a 2.5° grid. The planetary-scale waves are forced by time-independent, spatially varying diabatic heating. Energy is extracted via internal and surface frictional processes. Orography is excluded to simplify synoptic-scale energy sources.During integration the model energy first increases, but stabilizes near day 10. Subsequent flow patterns closely resemble the hemisphere summer monsoon. Climatological features remain quasi-stationary. At 200 mb high pressure dominates the land area, large-scale troughs are found over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the easterly jet forms south of Asia, and subtropical jets develop in the westerlies. At 800 mb subtropical highs dominate the oceans and the monsoon trough develops over the Asian land mass. The planetary scales at all levels develop a realistic cellular structure from the passage of transient synoptic-scale features, e.g., a baroclinic cyclone track develops near 55°N and westward propagating waves form in the easterlies.Barotropic redistribution of kinetic energy is examined over a low-latitude zonal strip using a Fourier wave-space. In contrast to higher latitudes where the zonal flow and both longer and shorter waves are fed by barotropic energy redistribution from the baroclinically unstable wavelengths, the low-latitude waves have a planetary-scale kinetic energy source. Wave numbers 1 and 2 maintain both the zonal flow and all shorter scales via barotropic transfers. Transient and standing wave processes are examined individually and in combination.Wave energy accumulates at wave numbers 7 and 8 at 200 mb and at wave number 11 in the lower troposphere. The 800-mb waves are thermally indirect and in the mean they give energy to the zonal flow. These characteristics agree with atmospheric observation. The energy source for these waves is the three wave barotropic transfer. The implications of examining barotropic processes in a Fourier wave-space, vice the more common approach of separating the flow into a mean plus a deviation are discussed.     

Delayed baroclinic response of the Antarctic circumpolar current to surface wind stress

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) responds to the surface windstress via two processes, i.e., the instant barotropic process and the delayed baroclinic process. This study focuses on the baroclinic instability mechanism in ACC, which was less reported in the literatures. Results show that the strengthening of surface zonal windstress causes the enhanced tilting of the isopycnal surface, leading to more intense baroclinic instability. Simultaneously, the mesoscale eddies resulting from the baro- clinic instability facilitate the transformation of mean potential energy to eddy energy, which causes the remarkable decrease of the ACC volume transport with the 2-year lag time. This delayed negative cor- relation between the ACC transport and the zonal windstress may account for the steadiness of the ACC transport during last two decades.     

On the propagation of pressure-patterns: Part I

Summary The propagation speed of sinoidal troughs and wedges in a steady state flow is determined from consideration of the mass transport due to the bodily motion of the system. Fundamental propositions are established regarding the mutual motion of wind-, pressure-, temperature-, and density-fields.It is found that in a frictionless barotropic general flow, all perturbations are propagated with the same speed—the speed of the general current. In a baroclinic general flow a perturbation will only be propagated without dispersion if it has a specific (sinoidal) horizontal structure.When a sinoidal perturbation is embedded in a baroclinic general flow-field, it will be propagated as though by a barotropic flow with the sameeffective speed. The effective speed can be computed when the vertical structure of the perturbation and of the mean flow are known.It is frequently assumed that the speed of mean flow at some particular level (500 mb is often assumed) gives the «steering» of the surface perturbation by a baroclinic general flow, that is to say, a baroclinic flow steers a perturbation with the speed of an equivalent barotropic field. The present paper provides a rational basis for the concept of an equivalent barotropic flow, but it is to be remembered that the «steering level» does not depend uniquely on the vertical structure of the mean flow-field, but varies from perturbation to perturbation, being lower for shallow perturbations than for (vertically) deep ones.     

Influence of open boundary conditions and sill height upon seiche motion in a gulf

A cross-sectional model of an idealised constant depth gulf with a sill at its entrance, connected to a deep ocean, is used to examine the barotropic and baroclinic response of the region to wind forcing. The role of the oceanic boundary condition is also considered. Calculations show that in the case of a tall sill, where the pycnocline intersects the sill, the baroclinic response of the gulf is similar to that of a lake, and internal waves cannot radiate energy out of the gulf. The barotropic response shows free surface oscillations, with nodes located close to the centre of the oceanic basin and entrance to the gulf, with associated barotropic resonant periods. As the sill height is reduced, baroclinic wave energy is radiated from the gulf into the ocean, and the form of the baroclinic response changes from a standing wave (tall sill) as in a lake to a progressive wave (no sill). The location of sea surface elevation nodes and resonant periods changes as the sill height is reduced. Calculations of the barotropic resonant periods with and without stratification could not determine if they were influenced by the presence of stratification, although published analytical theory suggests that they should be able to when energy is lost from the gulf by internal wave radiation. This inability to detect changes in barotropic resonant period due to stratification effects is due to the small change in resonant frequency produced by baroclinic effects, as shown by analytical results, and the broad peak nature of the computed resonant frequency. In the case of a closed offshore boundary (an offshore island), there is a stronger and narrower energy peak at the resonant frequency than when a barotropic radiation condition is applied. However, the influence of stratification upon the resonant frequency could not be accurately determined. Although the offshore boundary was well removed from the gulf to such an extent that any baroclinic waves reflected from it could not reach the gulf within the integration period, it did, however, slightly influence the gulf baroclinic response due to its influence on the barotropic response.     

Nonlinear baroclinic equilibration at finite supercriticality

The nonlinear equilibration of finite amplitude baroclinic waves in Phillips two-layer model is investigated at finite supercriticality. The aims are to quantify the robustness and relevance of the nonlinear theory of Warn, Gauthier and Pedlosky (WGP) for the evolution of the developing baroclinic wave, and to assess the tightness of pseudomomentum and improved pseudoenergy bounds for disturbance amplitude and energy. A high-resolution numerical model is used to perform a parameter sweep in (β,?W)-space, where β is the inverse criticality of the initial flow, and W is the ratio of the channel width to the (internal) Rossby radius. At low supercriticalities, the main predictions of WGP are found to be accurate at short times, but at long times the fully nonlinear results are found to diverge from WGP's solution. The mechanism for equilibration involves the elimination of the lower layer potential vorticity (PV) gradient, but as the supercriticality increases this is achieved by the roll-up of a train of opposite-signed vortices, rather than by coarse-grain PV homogenization as in WGP. Peak wave amplitudes are typically ≈90% of the maximum attainable under the pseudomomentum bound. New formulae are given for the pseudoenergy bound on disturbance energy which, unlike the WGP solution and the pseudomomentum bound, have non-trivial dependence on W. A detailed assessment is made of the extent to which these bounds are attained.     

Jupiter’s Great Red Spot: compactness condition and stability

Linear Rossby wave dispersion relationships suggest that Jupiter’s Great Red Spot (GRS) is a baroclinic structure embedded in a barotropic shearing zonal flow. Quasi-geostrophic (QG) two-layer simulations support the theory, as long as an infinitely deep zonal flow is assumed. However, once a finite depth of the lower layer is assumed, a self-interaction of the baroclinic eddy component produces a barotropic radiating field, so that the GRS-like eddy can no longer remain compact. Compactness is recovered by explicitly introducing a deep dynamics of the interior for the lower layer, instead of the shallow QG formulation. An implication of the result is a strong coupling of the GRS to a convectively active interior.Paper presented to the NP Symposia of the 1991 Wiesbaden EGS Assembly on “Nonlinear processes in Geophysics”     

Boundary layer dissipation and the nonlinear interaction of equatorial baroclinic and barotropic rossby waves

Two-layer equatorial primitive equations for the free troposphere in the presence of a thin atmospheric boundary layer and thermal dissipation are developed here. An asymptotic theory for the resonant nonlinear interaction of long equatorial baroclinic and barotropic Rossby waves is derived in the presence of such dissipation. In this model, a self-consistent asymptotic derivation establishes that boundary layer flows are generated by meridional pressure gradients in the lower troposphere and give rise to degenerate equatorial Ekman friction. That is to say, the asymptotic model has the property that the dissipation matrix has one eigenvalue which is nearly zero: therefore the dynamics rapidly dissipates flows with pressure at the base of the troposphere and creates barotropic/baroclinic spin up/spin down. The simplified asymptotic equations for the amplitudes of the dissipative equatorial barotropic and baroclinic waves are studied by linear theory and integrated numerically. The results indicate that although the dissipation slightly weakens the tropics to midlatitude connection, strong localized wave packets are nonetheless able to exchange energy between barotropic and baroclinic waves on intraseasonal timescales in the presence of baroclinic mean shear. Interesting dissipation balanced wave-mean flow states are discovered through numerical simulations. In general, the boundary layer dissipation is very efficient for flows in which the barotropic and baroclinic components are of the same sign at the base of the free troposphere whereas the boundary layer dissipation is less efficient for flows whose barotropic and baroclinic components are of opposite sign at the base of the free troposphere.     

真实基流中非线性Rossby波演变特征(二):能量、结构演变及初始场影响

针对非线性的准地转正压位涡方程,利用自行设计的差分格式和高斯函数拟合得到的真实基流分布,数值研究了线性和非线性Rossby波流场结构和总能量的演变以及初值对总能量演变的影响.发现在非线性的真实基流中,线性和非线性Rossby波的相对总能量出现振荡型增长或衰减,非线性波动的振荡周期明显小于线性波动,非线性项不仅抑制能量的...     

A Diagnostic Study of the Cyclonic Storm over the Arabian Sea during June 1994

—Based on the NCMRWF analysis over the Arabian Sea, a complete energy cycle of the severe cyclonic storm that formed in the beginning of June 1994 in the east central Arabian Sea is carried out, using the in-house developed energy package. Both barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions are responsible for the maintenance of the system, however dominance of one over the other is noticed at different stages of the system at different heights. Dynamical characteristics of synoptic scale monsoon flow surrounding the cyclonic storm are also investigated. By examining the generation and dissipation terms, it is observed that both zonal and eddy components of the synoptic scale flow act as source of energy for the cyclonic storm, both in the predeveloped and developed stages.