利用最大熵原理估算华北地区中强震的重现期和未来100年内发震概率

借用彭美煊“利用最大熵原理估算山西地震带中强震的重现期和未来100年内中强震的发震概率”文中的最大熵原理方法估算了华北地区(北纬30°00′～42°00′,东经105°00′—124°00′)中强震的重现期和未来100年内的中强震的发震概率。经计算,五级地震的重现期为7.35年,发震概率是0.99;六级地震的重现期为38.35年,发震概率是0.92;七级地震的重现期为171.89年,发震概率是0.44。计算结果与历史地震比较相接近,计算结果较满意。     

1987年8月2日寻乌地震的破裂方式

1987年8月2日,江西省寻乌发生M_S5.5级地震,震中烈度Ⅷ度,震中位于24°58′N,115°39′E,震源深度13km。本文根据震害特征、地壳构造活动性、震源机制、建筑物破坏的优势方向和介质条件,对这次地震的发震构造及其破裂方式作了初步探讨     

苍山5.2级地震的宏观烈度特征

以实地考察资料为基础,确定了１９９５年９月２０日苍山５．２级地震宏观震中,地震等震线、发震构造,并对地震趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明,苍山５．２级地震的宏观震中位于苍山县沂堂乡台井和塞子－带（北纬３４°５８．５′,东经１１８°０８′）;工程地质和地形地貌条件,构造环境和震源破裂是影响地震烈度分布主要因素;其发震构造系共轭破裂,北西向为主破裂,北东向为辅助破裂;研究认为本次地震发生在一条规模较小的北     

1725年地震震中位置的确定

1725年1月8日(清雍正二年十一月廿四日)杨林、宜良间(东经103°.1,北纬25°.1)6级(8°)地震。据中国地震目录记载:“十一月廿四日申时地震,房屋倒塌,压死人民等,北起寻甸隆丰里(易隆),南到澂江阳宗里,西到杨林官渡,东至宜良邑市(马街)一带,包括白土坡、二龙吸珠(二龙戏珠)在内的地震破坏区内共压死人700,伤人约200。由于历史条件的限制,对该次地震的震中位置,发震构造及地震震级     

东北地区2007年第一季度ML≥3．0地震目录

The earthquakes(ML≥3.0)catalogue of first quarter in northeastern area,2007序号月日发震时时间分秒北纬东地震经位置地点震(M级L)深(km度)1 2 10 14 33 09.7 40°43′122°35′辽宁大石桥3.2 114 3 22 20 28 13.8 45°14′131°10′黑龙江鸡东4.4 42 3 1 14 24 33.9 38°49′120°09′渤海3.1资料来源辽宁省地震局黑龙江省地震局辽宁省地震局精度ⅠⅡⅢ3 3 11 04 44 46.5 38°55′120°01′渤海3.8Ⅱ辽宁省地震局东北地区2007年第一季度M_L≥3.0地震目录@梁灿 @张洪艳 @江锦华~~…     

1500年宜良地震地表形变带的考证

据历史记载１５００年在宜良一带发生了一次强烈地震，由前人对该次地震无较详细的现 场实地考查资料，因此对这次地震认识说法不一。１９９２年作者对该次地震进行了实地考证。发现和确认了这次地震十分丰富的地震地表形变带，现存长度达８１公里，最大左旋水平位错量９至１１米。研究结果表明该次地震的发震构造为小新街－徐家渡断裂，震级接近８级。     

对1556年84/级大地震震中位置和发震构造的新认识

郭增建先生 (195 7)称 15 5 6年 8 级大地震为关中大地震 ,并绘制了等震线图。 1983年版中国地震目录将其称为华县地震。之后 ,中国地震目录几经修改 ,但对震中位置都没再进行过进一步的研究和修订。 80年代以来 ,几位研究者从不同角度渐次提出这次地震的震中位置不在华县的新见解。本文同意这些见解 ,并通过分析大量史料和对发震构造的研究作进一步论证 ,提出对这次地震震中位置和发震构造的新认识。(1) 15 5 6年 8 级大地震的震中位置不在华县。极震区分布在蒲州 (今永济西黄河东岸 )、朝邑、潼关卫、华阴、华州、解州一带 ,故震中位置宜定在蒲州、潼关卫、华阴、朝邑之间 ,即北纬34°4 4′ ,东经 110°16′ ,震级仍沿用 1995年版中国地震目录修订的 8 级。由于蒲州最重 ,可称为15 5 6年蒲州 8 级大地震。(2 ) 15 5 6年 8 级大地震的发震构造不只是华山山前断裂 ,而是大致沿黄河分布的北北东向右旋走滑断裂带及其南北两端相反方向分布的渭河拉分盆地和运城、临猗一带张性地堑、地垒带 ,由它们共同组合而成的走滑型发震构造带 ,为该次大地震的发震构造。     

1987年1月24日新疆乌什英阿瓦提6.4级地震

1987年1月24日新疆乌什县英阿瓦提西北约十公里处发生较大中强地震,其简况如下: 一、地震参数发震时刻:16时09分18秒(北京时间)震级:Ms=6.4级(全国台网)仪器震中:北纬4°26.5′,东经79°17.5′宏观震中:北纬41°26′50″,东经79°17′40″震源深度:10—12公里     

东北地区2005年第一季度ML≥3.0地震目录

序号发震时间地震位置月日时分秒北纬东经地点震级(ML)深度(km)精度1110161859.542°01′122°49′辽宁省新民3.212Ⅰ2122203158.548°10′130°34′黑龙江省罗北3.210Ⅱ3123074112.937°41′119°38′渤海3.6Ⅱ4124202243.751°49′122°56′黑龙江省大兴安岭呼中5.18Ⅱ5126110105.639°22′122°13′辽宁省普兰店3.211Ⅰ6128140731.739°40′123°45′北黄海3.2Ⅱ729183204.640°41′122°41′辽宁省海城3.09Ⅰ8223161241.147°41′124°42′黑龙江省富裕4.24Ⅰ932065156.251°32′123°04′黑龙江省大兴安岭呼中3.07Ⅱ东北地区2005年第…     

长江中下游-南黄海地震带4次中强震前的地震活动特征

前言 长江中下游-南黄海地震带（以下简称长南带）南部，即31°～32°40′N，118°～124°E地区。该区经济发达，人口稠密，城镇集中，俗称金三角。1970年进入20世纪第四、第五活跃期以来，先后发生了4次5级以上中强地震（表1），形成一个引人注目的中强震连发态势。总结4次地震发生前的地震活动特征，对于今后正确分析和判断江苏南部地区地震的大形势和重点危险区具有十分重要的意义。 表1 长南带4次中强震地震目录 震中位置 序号 发震时间 Nj El 地点 震级Ms 震源深度 /km 震中烈度 1 1974-04-22 31°24.9′ 119°14.5′ 溧阳 5.5…     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.