山东地区地震活动水平统计预测

本文以山东三个分区为例，以y=a bx线性统计建模，进行逐年和分月地震活动水平拟合分析，给出了三个分区地震年、月应变能释放水平的经验关系，依此可以对相应区域的地震活动水平进行统计预测。使用山东地区地震资料进行内符和外推检验，结果表明这种方法不但简单，效果也较好，可以用于日常和年度及分月地震水平预测估计。     

三向地震作用下砌体结构抗震性能研究

本文首先介绍了两个砌体结构模型在三向地震作用下的地震模拟振动台试验，在此基础上，运用参数识别技术，对试验数据进行了参数识别计算，最后，分析了三向地震作用对砌体结构抗震性能的影响。     

论对地方地震工作的科学指导与管理

根据现代行政管理学及领导管理科学的要求，研究探讨了我国地方地震工作管理的特殊性及其基本要求，提出了科学指导和管理地方地震工作的总体思路和基本模式，即一个指导思想，两个落脚点，三种管理方法和四条保证措施。作者据此总结了我国地方地震工作管理的实践和发展，提出了当前亟待解决的三个问题。     

1976年唐山7.8级地震前各类地震前兆异常信息熵的场,源兆特征

利用“专家系统”的思想对每一地震前兆异常事件进行了综合评估，以每一异常的最可能发震时间计算发震概率，利用各类地震前兆异常群体信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震场，源兆的关系，分析了１９７６年唐山７．８级地震前各类地震前兆异常的时空分布特征，然后以唐山为中心在空间上划分三个区，近区，中间区和远区，分别计算了三个区各类地震前兆异常信息熵的时间演化值，分析了震前这种信息熵的场，源兆特征，震中近区的信息熵值要比中     

关于地震科学体系的讨论

在回顾建国以来我国地震科学研究的三个阶段后指出，为适应当前地震灾害综合防御的需要，建立地震科学体系已提到日程上来。该体系由自然科学、社会科学、行为科学、数学科学和系统科学６大类组成，并就地震科学体系中的地震预报问题进行了专门的讨论。     

黄河柴家峡水电站坝址区地震动参数研究

本文结合柴家峡水电站坝址区的地震地质环境、历史地震特征以及场地条件，采用考虑地震分布时空不均匀性的综合概率法，对场区进行了地震危险性分析，在此基础上给出了坝址区５０年超越概率６３．２％、１０％、２％三个概率水准的设计地震动参数，为大坝的抗震设计和安全运营提供了依据。     

1994年1—3月的全球地震动态

1994年第一季度，全球地震活动仍为中等水平，三个月内共发生三次7级以上浅源地震。秘鲁－玻利维亚边界发生大深震。美国加州又发生强烈地震。大洋岛弧地震带本季度地震活跃。伊朗发生三次6级地震。     

用地震标定律研究丽江7.0级地震的破裂过程

本根据Ｈｅａｓｋｅｌｌ二维矩形地震破裂模式，导出了以ω立方的波谱衰减，在分析地震破裂过程特征、考虑三个主要的相似性假定基础上，即假定地震满足断层面几何相似、应力环境相似和动力学相似条件，研究了大小地震相似性问题的标度分析，建立了地震破裂和源参数之间的标定律关系。用云南地区２０多年中数百个地震的地震矩Ｍ０、面波震级Ｍｓ和近震震级ＭＬ系统以及有关的地震参数，建立了适用于云南地区的地震标定律关系。由此     

1993年10－12月的全球地震动态

１９９３年第四季度，全球地震活动为中等水平，三个月内共发生三次７．１级浅源地震。新几内亚东部发生６－７级地震多次。美州地震带地震活动表现不强。堪察加以东近海发生７．１级地震。亚欧带于１０月２日发生中国新疆南部（若羌）地震。全球浅源地震相对活跃。     

地震各向异性研究进展——参加2001年IAGA-IASPEI会议总结

2001年8月19－31日在越南河内召开了首届IAGA－IASPEI联合大会，有三个专题对地震各向异性进行了重点讨论，另有一些关于地震各向异 的报告分散在不同的专题之中。从这次大会来看，对于地震各向异性的研究主要呈现三个方面的特点，一是观测精度和分析技术手段的提高，二是注意了与其它地球物理资料的联合使用。三是把观测结果与数字到剖析特定局部区域的深部地震学特征和地球动力学含义。     

Recipe for Predicting Strong Ground Motion from Crustal Earthquake Scenarios

We developed a recipe for predicting strong ground motions based on a characterization of the source model for future crustal earthquakes. From recent developments of waveform inversion of strong motion data used to estimate the rupture process, we have inferred that strong ground motion is primarily related to the slip heterogeneity inside the source rather than average slip in the entire rupture area. Asperities are characterized as regions that have large slip relative to the average slip on the rupture area. The asperity areas, as well as the total rupture area, scale with seismic moment. We determined that the areas of strong motion generation approximately coincide with the asperity areas. Based on the scaling relationships, the deductive source model for the prediction of strong ground motions is characterized by three kinds of parameters: outer, inner, and extra fault parameters. The outer fault parameters are defined as entire rupture area and total seismic moment. The inner fault parameters are defined as slip heterogeneity inside the source, area of asperities, and stress drop on each asperity based on the multiple-asperity model. The pattern of rupture nucleation and termination are the extra fault parameters that are related to geomorphology of active faults. We have examined the validity of the earthquake sources constructed by our recipe by comparing simulated and observed ground motions from recent inland crustal earthquakes, such as the 1995 Kobe and 2005 Fukuoka earthquakes.     

Elastic properties of sands,Part 1: Micro computed tomography image analysis of grain shapes and their relationship with microstructure

Elastic properties of an unconsolidated sand are largely dependent on the elastic properties of its constituent grain and the micro-structure that defines how the grains are arranged within themselves. Coordination number, that is the average number of contacts a grain has with its neighbours, and contact surface area are the two parameters closely related to the microstructure. Moreover, grain shapes and sorting also have substantial influence on these parameters. To calculate these parameters and find any potential relationships with the shape factors, we acquire high-resolution micro computed tomography images of four mechanically compacted unconsolidated dry sand samples that are of different shape factors and sorting indices. After a comprehensive voxel-based data processing, we calculate shape factors such as sphericity and roundness of each grain in all samples. Using own algorithm, we then calculate the coordination number and contact surface area. Results show that samples of well-sorted and higher spherical and rounded grains have higher coordination number and contact surface area than the samples of poorly sorted and lower spherical and rounded grains. Among the poorly sorted samples, coordination number is largely dependent on the fraction of larger grain sizes present in the sample. Inside any given sample, grains of lower sphericity tend to have higher coordination numbers. Moreover, more spherical and rounded grains have greater contact surface area with their neighbours.     

腾冲火山区某些地震学参数特征

测定了腾冲火山区地震震中位置和震源深度,对火山区及附近的震源深度、地震时距曲线和地震波速度等地震学参数特征作了分析。结果表明,腾冲火山区地震震源深度相对较小,向周围地区逐渐增大,震源深度分布的低值区,又是环境剪应力场的值分布区。腾冲火山区Ｐ、Ｓ波平均速度,明显比外围地区小,腾冲火山区存在低速区。这些地震学参数分布的差异,一方面反映出地区作为火山区的固有特征及其地域分布的大小,同时也揭示出腾冲火山在     

Impact of spatial variations of land surface parameters on regional evaporation: a case study with remote sensing data

Most precipitation in watersheds is consumed by evaporation, thus techniques to appraise regional evaporation are important to assess the availability of water resources. Many algorithms to estimate evaporation from remotely sensed spectral data have been developed in the recent past. In addition to differences in the physical parameterization of surface fluxes, these algorithms have different solutions for describing spatial variations of the parameters in the soil–vegetation–atmosphere–transfer (SVAT) continuum. In this study, the necessity to spatially distinguish SVAT parameters for computing surface heat fluxes is analysed for the Naivasha watershed in the Kenyan Rift Valley. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) spectral data have been used to first delineate the watershed into 15 hydrological units using surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index and surface albedo as attributes. Thereafter, semi‐empirical relationships between these TM‐based parameters and other SVAT parameters have been applied to compute the spatial variation of SVAT parameters and the associated evaporation from the different hydrological units. The impact of using watershed‐constant or watershed‐distributed SVAT parameters on the fluxes is analysed. The determination of watershed averaged evaporation with area‐aggregated SVAT parameters is feasible without significant loss of accuracy. Distributed evaporation in heterogeneous watersheds, however, can be investigated only with remote sensing flux algorithms that can account for spatially variable air temperature, surface roughness, surface albedo and the stability correction of the temperature profile due to buoyancy. Erroneous results can be expected if area‐aggregated SVAT parameters are used to calculate local evaporation. As most of the recently developed remote sensing flux algorithms are based on areal constant SVAT parameters, direct applications in watersheds are still limited. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

六安-霍山地震危险区地震活动和地震构造

运用深、浅部构造对比方法与宏、微观构造解析技术 ,结合历史地震资料分析结果 ,探讨了中强震过渡区地震构造环境的研究途径。圈定出六安 -霍山地震危险区。对该地震危险区进行立体综合剖析 ,推演出未来中强震发生的空间部位 ,并预测了研究区未来可能发生地震的震源深度、震级、地震等震线长轴衰减方向等参     

基于GIS的浙江省地震快速评估模型构建研究

烈度衰减关系是快速评估的关键。利用浙江及其周边的历史地震资料,经过GIS空间分析处理,获得地震的长短轴参数和震中位置,同时对照大地构造分区将地震进行空间分区分类。在此基础上,使用相关地震快速评估模型构建对浙江省内有影响地区的地震评估的长短轴模型,为相关地区的地震评估提供参考。     

Mountain ordering: A method for classifying mountains based on their morphometry

A new method for classifying mountain morphology, ‘mountain ordering,’ is proposed, and quantitative expressions for various morphological parameters of two ordered mountains in northern Japan were obtained using this method. Mountain order was defined in terms of the closed contour lines on a topographic map. A set of closed, concentric contour lines defines a first-order mountain. Higher-order mountains can be defined as a set of closed contour lines that contain lower-order mountains and that have only one closed contour line for each elevation; they are identified as m + 1th-order mountains, where m represents the order of the enclosed, lower-order mountains. The geomorphometry for a mountain ordered according to this definition permits the identification of systematic relationships between various morphological parameters. The relationships between mountain order and these morphological parameters follow a form similar to that of Horton's laws, and permit the calculation of the ratios of number, area and height; these parameters are sufficient to express the magnitude of a mountain's dissection. The size–frequency distribution for area and height shows self-similarity for ordered mountains, and determines their fractal dimensions. Furthermore, the relationship between area and height, which has the form of a power function, describes the relief structure of ordered mountains. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

STATISTICAL RELATIONS BETWEEN GEOMORPHIC PARAMETERS - A CASE STUDY OF THE YUNNAN REACH OF THE LANCANGJIANG RIVER IN SOUTHWESTERN CHINA

The properties of rivers and their catchments can be expressed by statistical relationships between geomorphic parameters. These statistical relationships may reveal some inherent differences in geomorphic evolution for different reaches or different order tributaries of a river basin. A case study was undertaken of the Yunnan reach of the Langcangjiang River. The catchment area, channel length and gradient of the first-, second- and third-order tributaries all with catchment areas larger than 100 km2 in the Yunnan reach were the main geomorphic parameters evaluated. The correlation between catchment area and channel length as well as between catchment area and channel gradient with respect to the total tributaries, different reach tributaries, and different order tributaries were revealed using statistical methods. In general, the channel length as a function of catchment area, was best expressed by a quadratic function where channel length increases with increasing catchment area (half parabola), while the channel gradient as a function of catchment area is best expressed by an exponential decay function. Comparison of the best-fit formulas revealed the following phenomena: the lower Yunnan reach tributaries and the first-order tributaries have a dominant effect on geomorphic parameters of the total tributaries. In addition, the statistical relationships indicate that the river geomorphic system in the upper and lower Yunnan reaches evolved differently. This study method used to differentiate river characteristics by determining statistical relationships between geomorphic parameters may be extended to other rivers and their catchments.     

胜利滩海地震勘探采集

胜利滩海地区地理地质条件特殊，勘探程度低、难度大。通过对滩海及极浅海地区采集方法的研究，在改进采集设备的同时，进一步完善了野外观测系统设计，总结了各种激发因素和接收因素，形成一套完整合理的有利于滩海及极浅海地区地震勘探方法，使地震资料的信噪比和分辨率得到了很大提高，从而为地下构造形态研究、油藏描述提供了可靠的基础资料。     

Earthquake source parameters as inferred from the body waveform modeling, southern Turkey

Focal mechanism parameters of some significant earthquakes from southern Turkey have been estimated using either the body waveforms or the first motions of P-waves. It is observed that fault plane solutions derived from first motions may not be well constrained and may often be in error because of poor signal-to-noise ratios at some stations, poorly distributed recording stations in azimuth, lack of recognition of the reversed polarities at some stations, and positions of stations in terms of the crustal velocity structure, focal depth and, hence, take-off angles in the source area. The use of the inversion method introduces a considerable improvement in the focal parameters estimated in previous studies that have been used to construct seismotectonic models in the study area. The focal depths inferred from the inversion of body waveforms for the earthquakes occurring in southwestern Turkey are compatible with those reported by the ISC bulletins and other previous studies while the focal depths of earthquakes from the Antalya Bay are found to be less than those given by different agencies. Waveform inversion of earthquakes that have occurred in and around the Antalya Bay implies a low velocity layer showing azimuthal dependence. Hence, depth of rupture and lateral extent of velocity structure are of importance in the investigation of earthquake faulting process in this area. The source time duration of shallow earthquakes is generally longer than that for the deep focus earthquakes from the Antalya Bay and the Rhodes area. The events with relatively short and simple time functions may be interpreted as low stress drop events relative to the crustal ones.