The June 2013 Alberta Catastrophic Flooding Event: Part 1—Climatological aspects and hydrometeorological features

In June 2013, excessive rainfall associated with an intense weather system triggered severe flooding in southern Alberta, which became the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This article provides an overview of the climatological aspects and large‐scale hydrometeorological features associated with the flooding event based upon information from a variety of sources, including satellite data, upper air soundings, surface observations and operational model analyses. The results show that multiple factors combined to create this unusually severe event. The event was characterized by a slow‐moving upper level low pressure system west of Alberta, blocked by an upper level ridge, while an associated well‐organized surface low pressure system kept southern Alberta, especially the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, in continuous precipitation for up to two days. Results from air parcel trajectory analysis show that a significant amount of the moisture originated from the central Great Plains, transported into Alberta by a southeasterly low level jet. The event was first dominated by significant thunderstorm activity, and then evolved into continuous precipitation supported by the synoptic‐scale low pressure system. Both the thunderstorm activity and upslope winds associated with the low pressure system produced large rainfall amounts. A comparison with previous similar events occurring in the same region suggests that the synoptic‐scale features associated with the 2013 rainfall event were not particularly intense; however, its storm environment was the most convectively unstable. The system also exhibited a relatively high freezing level, which resulted in rain, rather than snow, mainly falling over the still snow‐covered mountainous areas. Melting associated with this rain‐on‐snow scenario likely contributed to downstream flooding. Furthermore, above‐normal snowfall in the preceding spring helped to maintain snow in the high‐elevation areas, which facilitated the rain‐on‐snow event. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical study of the rainstorm characteristics of the June 2005 flash flood with WRF/GSI data assimilation system over south‐east China

The evolution and structure of rainstorms associated with a flash‐flood event are simulated by the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF‐ARW) model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States. The event is based on a flash flood that occurred in the central Guangdong Province of south‐east China during 20–21 June 2005. Compared to an hourly mixed rain‐gauge and satellite‐retrieved precipitation data, the model shows the capability to reproduce the intensity and location of rainfall; however, the simulation depends on three conditions to a large extent: model resolution, physical processes schemes and initial condition. In this case, the Eta Ferrier microphysics scheme and the initialization with satellite radiance DA with a fine 4‐km grid spacing nested grid and coarse 12‐km grid spacing outer grid are the best options. The model‐predicted rain rates, however, are slightly overestimated, and the activities of the storms do not precisely correspond with those observed, although peak values are obtained. Abundant moisture brought by the south‐westerly winds with a mesoscale low‐level jet from the South China Sea or Bay of Bengal and trapped within the XingfengJiang region encompassed by northern Jiulian, southern Lianhua and eastern small mountains are apparently the primary elements responsible for the flood event. All simulated rainstorms were initiated over the southern slopes of the Jiulian Mountain and moved south or north‐eastward within the Xingfengjiang region. Meanwhile, the Skew‐T/Log‐P diagrams show that there is a fairly high convective available potential energy (CAPE) over the active areas of the rainstorms. The higher CAPE provides a beneficial thermodynamic condition for the development of rainstorms, but the higher convective inhibition near the northern, eastern and southern mountains prohibits the storms from moving out of the region and causes heavy rainfall that is trapped within the area. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The cold rain‐on‐snow event of June 2013 in the Canadian Rockies — characteristics and diagnosis

The June 2013 flood in the Canadian Rockies featured rain‐on‐snow (ROS) runoff generation at alpine elevations that contributed to the high streamflows observed during the event. Such a mid‐summer ROS event has not been diagnosed in detail, and a diagnosis may help to understand future high discharge‐producing hydrometeorological events in mountainous cold regions. The alpine hydrology of the flood was simulated using a physically based model created with the modular cold regions hydrological modelling platform. The event was distinctive in that, although at first, relatively warm rain fell onto existing snowdrifts inducing ROS melt; the rainfall turned to snowfall as the air mass cooled and so increased snowcover and snowpacks in alpine regions, which then melted rapidly from ground heat fluxes in the latter part of the event. Melt rates of existing snowpacks were substantially lower during the ROS than during the relatively sunny periods preceding and following the event as a result of low wind speeds, cloud cover and cool temperatures. However, at the basin scale, melt volumes increased during the event as a result of increased snowcover from the fresh snowfall and consequent large ground heat contributions to melt energy, causing snowmelt to enhance rainfall–runoff by one fifth. Flow pathways also shifted during the event from relatively slow sub‐surface flow prior to the flood to an even contribution from sub‐surface and fast overland flow during and immediately after the event. This early summer, high precipitation ROS event was distinctive for the impact of decreased solar irradiance in suppressing melt rates, the contribution of ground heat flux to basin scale snowmelt after precipitation turned to snowfall, the transition from slow sub‐surface to fast overland flow runoff as the sub‐surface storage saturated and streamflow volumes that exceeded precipitation. These distinctions show that summer, mountain ROS events should be considered quite distinct from winter ROS and can be important contributors to catastrophic events. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precipitation variability and its relationship to hydrologic variability in Alberta

By applying wavelet‐based empirical orthogonal function (WEOF) analysis to gridded precipitation (P) and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to gridded air temperature (T), potential evapotranspiration (PET), net precipitation (P‐PET) and runoff (Q), this paper examines the spatial, temporal and frequency patterns of Alberta's climate variability. It was found that only WEOF‐based precipitation patterns, possibly modulated by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), delineated Alberta into four major regions which geographically represent northern Alberta Boreal forests, southern Alberta grasslands and Aspen Parklands and the Rocky Mountains and Foothills. The leading mode of wavelet‐based precipitation variability WPC1 showed that between 1900 and 2000, a wet climate dominated northern Alberta with significant 4–8, 11 and 25‐year periodic cycles, while the second mode WPC2 showed that between 1960 and 2000, southern Alberta grasslands were characterized by decreasing precipitation, dominated by 11‐year cycles, and the last two modes WPC3 and WPC4 were characterized by 4–7 and 25‐year cycles and both delineated regions where moisture from the Pacific Ocean penetrated the Rocky Mountains, accounted for much of the sub‐alpine climate. These results show that WEOF is superior to EOF in delineating Alberta precipitation variability to sub‐regions that more closely agree with its eco‐climate regions. Further, it was found that while WPC2 could not explain runoff variations in southern Alberta, WPC1, WPC3 and WPC4 accounted for runoff variability in their respective sub‐regions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with the El Niño–southern oscillation

The plausible long‐term trend of precipitation in China and its association with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) are investigated by using non‐parametric techniques. It is concluded that a greater number of decreasing trends are observed than are expected to occur by chance. Geographically, the decreasing trend was concentrated in most parts of China, including the Songliao River, Hai River, Huai River, Yellow River, Zhujiang River, and southern part of the Yangtze River basins, whereas an increasing trend appeared primarily in the western and middle parts of China, mainly including the Inland River basin, and the northern part of the Yangtze River basins. Monthly mean precipitation for the summer and early autumn months generally decreased, with the greatest decrease occurring in August. The precipitation in spring from January to April and later autumn, including September and October, tended to increase. The teleconnection between precipitation and ENSO has been investigated by using the non‐parametric Kendall's τ. The correlation coefficients between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation show the areas with positive or negative associations. Approximately 20% of the stations exhibit statistically significant correlations between SOI and precipitation, of which 70% show a negative correlation, with most of them appearing in southeast China and several appearing in northwest and northeast China. Similar regional patterns are also observed when the precipitation records are further subdivided into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. Statistical tests for the three kinds of time series were carried out using the non‐parametric Wilcoxon rank‐sum test, and it is noted that the stations with significant differences in precipitation averages are mainly marked in the Yellow River basin and south China. The frequencies of below‐ and above‐average precipitation that occurred during the El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated as well. The result shows that greater precipitation may be associated with El Niño episodes in south China, but drought may easily occur during El Niño episodes in the Yellow River basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lightning activity and precipitation structure of hailstorms

By using the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning location data from the lightning detection network of He- nan Province, surface Doppler radar data and standard orbit data of PR, TMI and LIS on TRMM satellite, the spatial and temporal characteristics of CG lightning flashes in 10 severe hailstorms are analyzed. The results show that the percentage of CG lightning in these hailstorms is high with an average value of 45.5%. There is a distinct increase in CG flash rate during the rapid development stage of hailstorms. The hailstone falling corresponds to an active positive flash period, and the increase of CG flash rate is generally accompanied with a decrease of –CG flash rate. The flash rate declines rapidly during the dissipating stage of hailstorms. The precipitation structure and lightning activity in two typical hail- storms are studied in detail. It is found that strong convective cells with reflectivity greater than 30dBZ mainly are situated in the front region of hailstorms, whereas the trailing stratiform region is in the rear part of the hailstorms. The maximum heights of echo top are higher than 14 km. Convective rain con- tributes much more rainfall to the total than stratiform rain, and the convective rain takes about 85% and 97% of the total in the two cases, respectively. Total lightning in the hailstorms is very active with the flash rate up to 183 fl/min and 55 fl/min, respectively. The results also indicate that most lightning flashes occurred in the echo region greater than 30 dBZ and its immediate periphery. The probability of lightning occurrence is 20 times higher in the convective region than in the stratiform region. The result suggests that the lightning information is helpful to the identification of convective rain region. The linear relationship between flash rate and ice water content is disclosed primarily.     

积云并合扩展层化型积层混合云的数值模拟分析

积层混合云是我国的主要降水云系,也是人工影响天气的主要作业对象,从云降水物理的角度来研究云系的形成和发展维系具有重要的意义.基于积层混合云的重要性,本文从个例研究入手,利用中尺度数值模式WRF,模拟2005年5月17~18日发生在我国西南山区（主要以贵州省为主）的积层混合云降水过程.发现这次过程是由对流云并合扩大层化形成的.云系形成以后,云系附近会不断有对流云生成,并在移动过程中并合进入云系,补充云系发展维系所需的含水量和能量,促使云系不断维持.在积层混合云系的内部,对流云和层状云区不断地发生作用.对流云给周围的层状云不断输送含水量和能量,支持着层状云的发展.云系内部两种云相互作用的结果体现在：对流云内的上升气流速度逐渐渐小,层状云的上升气流速度不断维持,总上升气流面积区扩大.对流云的降水量不断减小,而层状云的降水不断维持,带来了大面积持续时间很长的降水.     

The anomalous variation of the lightning activity in southern China during the 1997/98 El Niño event

This paper presents the EOF analysis results of the lightning density (LD) anomalies for the different seasons in southeastern China and Indochina Peninsula by using the OTD/LIS database (June 1995 to Feb. 2003) of the global LD with 2.5Ü×2.5× resolution offered by Global Hydrology Resource Center. It is shown that the LD positive anomalies in the region occurred at the same time of NINO3 SSTA steep increase in the spring of 1997 and remained to be a higher level till the next spring, as well the corresponding anomaly percent maximum in different seasons was 89%, 30%, 45%, 498% and 55% successively from the beginning to the end of the 1997/98 El Niño event (ENSO). The centre of the LD positive anomalies for the spring or winter season is located at southeastern China and the adjacent coastal areas, but it for the summer or autumn season is located at the southern Indochina Peninsula and Gulf of Thailand, whose position for each season in the ENSO as contrasted with the normal years has a westward shift, and especially for winter or spring season a northward shift at the same time. In addition, an analysis of the interannual variations in the LD anomaly percent, convective precipitation and H-CAPE days in southern China shows that each among the three anomaly percents is correlative with the other for the positive anomaly zone and Kuroshio area. The relative variation of LD during the El Niño period is the highest among the three rates and is larger than that during the non-El Niño period, meaning that the response of lightning activities to the ENSO is the most sensitive in both areas. But the response of lightning activities and precipitation to the ENSO appears to be more complex and diversified either in Kuroshio area or in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and northwestern and northeastern China.     

Correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in South‐east Asia and the Pacific region

The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events versus precipitation anomalies, and the response of seasonal precipitation to El Niño and La Niña events were investigated for 30 basins that represent a range of climatic types throughout South‐east Asia and the Pacific region. The teleconnection between ENSO and the hydroclimate is tested using both parametric and non‐parametric approaches, and the lag correlations between precipitation anomalies versus the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) several months earlier, as well as the coherence between SOI and precipitation anomalies are estimated. The analysis shows that dry conditions tend to be associated with El Niño in the southern zone, and part of the middle zone in the study area. The link between precipitation anomalies and ENSO is statistically significant in the southern zone and part of the middle zone of the study area, but significant correlation was not observed in the northern zone. Patterns of precipitation response may differ widely among basins, and even the response of a given river basin to individual ENSO events also may be changeable. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precipitable water conversion rates over the Qinghai‐Xizang (Tibet) Plateau: changing characteristics with global warming

In this article, the trends and variability of precipitation and precipitable water (PW) over the Qinghai‐Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QXP) (1970–2009) were analysed by using ERA‐40 (The European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40 years Re‐analysis) and NCEP (The National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR reanalyses data and the ground observed precipitation data from 60 sites. The results showed that the precipitation over the QXP had an overall increasing trend; however, a slight decreasing trend was observed over the southeast. This decreasing precipitation trend might be related to the South Asia monsoon degradation. Since 1970, a decreasing PW trend has occurred over the QXP in which the southeast is the most significant region. Because of the rising temperatures in the QXP, a remarkable PW conversion rate (PWCR) increase of 0.87% per decade has occurred over the past 40 years. Because of its steep terrain, the PWCR in the middle eastern region of the QXP increased faster than that of the other regions. The mean PWCR in the wet southern region of the QXP was higher than that of the dry northern region, which was higher in the winter than that in the summer. Although much precipitation occurred in the summer, in the wet regions, the PWCR was higher in the winter than in the summer. The PWCR peak in the wet and dry regions occurred during the precipitation‐short and precipitation‐sufficient seasons, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The anomalous variation of the lightning activity in southern China during the 1997/98 El Ni(n~)o event

This paper presents the EOF analysis results of the lightning density (LD) anomalies for the different seasons in southeastern China and Indochina Peninsula by using the OTD/LIS database (June 1995 to Feb. 2003) of the global LD with 2.5°×2.5° resolution offered by Global Hydrology Resource Center. It is shown that the LD positive anomalies in the region occurred at the same time of NINO3 SSTA steep increase in the spring of 1997 and remained to be a higher level till the next spring, as well the corresponding anomaly percent maximum in different seasons was 89%, 30%, 45%, 498% and 55% successively from the beginning to the end of the 1997/98 El Ni(~n)o event (ENSO). The centre of the LD positive anomalies for the spring or winter season is located at southeastern China and the adjacent coastal areas, but it for the summer or autumn season is located at the southern Indochina Peninsula and Gulf of Thailand, whose position for each season in the ENSO as contrasted with the normal years has a westward shift, and especially for winter or spring season a northward shift at the same time. In addition, an analysis of the interannual variations in the LD anomaly percent, convective precipitation and H-CAPE days in southern China shows that each among the three anomaly percents is correlative with the other for the positive anomaly zone and Kuroshio area. The relative variation of LD during the El Ni (~n)o period is the highest among the three rates and is larger than that during the non-El Ni(~n)o period, meaning that the response of lightning activities to the ENSO is the most sensitive in both areas. But the response of lightning activities and precipitation to the ENSO appears to be more complex and diversified either in Kuroshio area or in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and northwestern and northeastern China.     

Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951–2005

The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in the desert region of China (DRC) from 1951 to 2005 were investigated using a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the Mann–Kendall trend test method (M‐K method). In addition, the association between variation patterns of precipitation and large‐scale circulation were also explored using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The results indicated that the spatial pattern of precipitation was primarily the local climate effect significant type, with the first three EOFs explaining a total of 55·3% of the variance, and the large‐scale climate system effect type, which explained 9·8% of the variance. Prior to the 1970s, the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger, which resulted in abundant precipitation in the Inner Mongolia region. Conversely, the climate of the Xinjiang region was controlled by westerly circulation and had lower precipitation. However, this situation has been reversed since the 1980s. It is predicted that precipitation will decrease by 15–40 and 0–10 mm/year in the Inner Mongolia plateau and southern Xinjiang, respectively, whereas it will likely increase by 10–40 mm/year in northern Xinjiang. Additionally, 58–62% of the annual rainfall occurred during summer in the DRC, with precipitation increasing during spring and summer and decreasing in winter. The intra‐annual precipitation is becoming uniform, but the inter‐annual variability in precipitation has been increasing in the western portions of the DRC. The probability of precipitation during the study period increased by 30% and 22·2% in the extreme‐arid zones and arid zones, respectively. Conversely, the probability of precipitation during the study period decreased by 18·5% and 37·5% in the semi‐arid zones and semi‐wet zones, respectively. It is predicted that the northwest portion of the DRC will become warmer and wetter, while the central portion will become warmer and drier and the northeast portion will be subjected to drought. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The isotopic signature of monsoon conditions,cloud modes,and rainfall type

This work provides a comprehensive physically based framework for the interpretation of the north Australian rainfall stable isotope record (δ¹⁸O and δ²H). Until now, interpretations mainly relied on statistical relationships between rainfall amount and isotopic values on monthly timescales. Here, we use multiseason daily rainfall stable isotope and high resolution (10 min) ground‐based C‐band polarimetric radar data and show that the five weather types (monsoon regimes) that constitute the Australian wet season each have a characteristic isotope ratio. The data suggest that this is not only due to changes in regional rainfall amount during these regimes but, more importantly, is due to different rain and cloud types that are associated with the large scale circulation regimes. Negative (positive) isotope anomalies occurred when stratiform rainfall fractions were large (small) and the horizontal extent of raining areas were largest (smallest). Intense, yet isolated, convective conditions were associated with enriched isotope values whereas more depleted isotope values were observed when convection was widespread but less intense. This means that isotopic proxy records may record the frequency of which these typical wet season regimes occur. Positive anomalies in paleoclimatic records are most likely associated with periods where continental convection dominates and convection is sea‐breeze forced. Negative anomalies may be interpreted as periods when the monsoon trough is active, convection is of the oceanic type, less electric, and stratiform areas are wide spread. This connection between variability of rainfall isotope anomalies and the intrinsic properties of convection and its large‐scale environment has important implications for all fields of research that use rainfall stable isotopes.     

Isotopic composition of precipitation during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the Southeast Region of Brazil

Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature variations interact with processes of atmospheric circulation, creating conditions for the occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events represent the most important interannual phenomena affecting climate patterns worldwide and causing significant socio‐economic impacts. In the Brazilian territory, ENSO leads to an increase in drought episodes in the north‐eastern region and an increase in precipitation in the southern region, whereas the effects over the south‐east region are yet not well understood. The main goal of this study is to compare variations of isotopic composition in precipitation across the south‐east portion of the Brazilian territory during two very strong ENSO events: 1997–1998 (ENSO 1) and 2014–2016 (ENSO 2). Daily isotopic records, available from the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation database for ENSO 1, and samples collected during ENSO 2 were used to compare the influence of both events on the isotopic composition of precipitation. Seasonal variations indicated more depleted precipitation during the wet seasons (δ¹⁸O = ?5.4 ± 4.0‰) and enriched precipitation during the dry seasons (δ¹⁸O = ?2.8 ± 2.3‰). Observed rainfall variations were associated with atmospheric large‐scale processes and moisture transport from the Amazon region, whereas extreme values (enriched or depleted) appear to be associated with particular convective and stratiform precipitation events. Overall, more depleted isotopic composition of precipitation (δ¹⁸O = ?4.60‰) and higher d‐excess (up to +15‰) were observed during the dry season of ENSO 1 when compared with ENSO 2 dry season (δ¹⁸O‰ = ?2.80‰, d‐excess lower than +14‰). The latter is explained by greater atmospheric moisture content, particularly associated with recycling of transpiration fluxes from the Amazon region, during dry season of ENSO 1. No significant differences for δ¹⁸O and δ²H were observed during the wet season; however, d‐excess from ENSO 2 was greater than ENSO 1, due to the slightly greater atmospheric moisture content and very strong upward motion observed. Our findings highlight the opportunity that environmental isotopes offer towards understanding hydrometeorological processes, particularly, the evolution of extreme climatic events of global resonance such as ENSO.     

Winter rainfall interception by two mature open‐grown trees in Davis,California

A rainfall interception measuring system was developed and tested for open‐grown trees. The system includes direct measurements of gross precipitation, throughfall and stemflow, as well as continuous collection of micrometeorological data. The data were sampled every second and collected at 30‐s time steps using pressure transducers monitoring water depth in collection containers coupled to Campbell CR10 dataloggers. The system was tested on a 9‐year‐old broadleaf deciduous tree (pear, Pyrus calleryana ‘Bradford’) and an 8‐year‐old broadleaf evergreen tree (cork oak, Quercus suber) representing trees having divergent canopy distributions of foliage and stems. Partitioning of gross precipitation into throughfall, stemflow and canopy interception is presented for these two mature open‐grown trees during the 1996–1998 rainy seasons. Interception losses accounted for about 15% of gross precipitation for the pear tree and 27% for the oak tree. The fraction of gross precipitation reaching the ground included 8% by stemflow and 77% by throughfall for the pear tree, as compared with 15% and 58%, respectively, for the oak tree. The analysis of temporal patterns in interception indicates that it was greatest at the beginning of each rainfall event. Rainfall frequency is more significant than rainfall rate and duration in determining interception losses. Both stemflow and throughfall varied with rainfall intensity and wind speed. Increasing precipitation rates and wind speed increased stemflow but reduced throughfall. Analysis of rainfall interception processes at different time‐scales indicates that canopy interception varied from 100% at the beginning of the rain event to about 3% at the maximum rain intensity for the oak tree. These values reflected the canopy surface water storage changes during the rain event. The winter domain precipitation at our study site in the Central Valley of California limited our opportunities to collect interception data during non‐winter seasons. This precipitation pattern makes the results more specific to the Mediterranean climate region. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rainfall‐induced landslide hazard assessment using artificial neural networks

In Japan, landslides triggered by heavy rainfall tend to occur during the annual rainy season from early June until the middle of July; these landslides constitute a major hazard causing significant property damage and loss of life. This paper proposes the use of back propagation neural networks (BPNN) to predict the probability of landslide occurrence for a scenario of heavy rainfall in the Minamata area of southern Kyushu Island, Japan. All of the landslides were detected from aerial photographs taken in 1999, 2001 and 2003, and a geospatial database of lithology, topography, soil characteristics, land use and precipitation was constructed using geographical information systems (GIS). The training sample consists of 602 cells that include landslide activity and 1600 cells in stable areas. Using the trained BPNN with 49 input nodes, three hidden layers, and one output node, 239 589 cells were processed to produce a map of landslide probability for a maximum daily precipitation of 329 mm and a maximum cumulative precipitation of 581 mm for an incessant, intense rainfall event in the future. The resultant hazard map was classified into four hazard levels; it can be referenced for land‐use planning and decision‐making for community development. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid recharge of fresh water to the halite‐hosted brine aquifer of Salar de Atacama,Chile

We document, analyse, and interpret direct and rapid infiltration of precipitation to the southern margin of the Salar de Atacama halite‐hosted brine aquifer during two intense precipitation events in 2012–2013. We present physical, geochemical, and stable and radioactive isotope data to detail this influx of water. The two events differ distinctly in the mechanisms of recharge. The 2012 event did not produce direct precipitation onto the salar surface, while the 2013 event did. Both events are recorded by abrupt changes in head in observation wells along the halite aquifer margin. Spatially distributed water levels rose by over 30 cm during the larger 2013 event consistent with remotely sensed observations of surface water extent. The lithium concentration and stable isotopic composition of water indicate dilution of brine and dissolution of salt with fresh water. Tritium measurements of precipitation, surface water, and groundwater all indicate modern influx of water to the halite aquifer along the southern margin. We extend these observations by examining the response of the halite aquifer as a whole to precipitation events during the period of 2000–2010. This study suggests that local recharge to the aquifer during sporadic precipitation onto the halite nucleus is an important component of the modern water budget in this hyper‐arid environment. The rapid dissolution and salinization along the southern margin of the salar halite nucleus are aided by such precipitation events contributing a modern fresh water component to the water budget of the economically valuable lithium‐rich brine. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Lightning Data to Better Understand and Predict Flash Floods in the Mediterranean

One of the costliest natural hazards around the globe is flash floods, resulting from localized intense convective precipitation over short periods of time. Since intense convective rainfall (especially over the continents) is well correlated with lightning activity in these storms, a European Union FP6 FLASH project was realized from 2006 to 2010, focusing on using lightning observations to better understand and predict convective storms that result in flash floods. As part of the project, 23 case studies of flash floods in the Mediterranean region were examined. For the analysis of these storms, lightning data were used together with rainfall estimates in order to understand the storms?? development and electrification processes. In addition, these case studies were simulated using mesoscale meteorological models to better understand the local and synoptic conditions leading to such intense and damaging storms. As part of this project, tools for short-term predictions (nowcasts) of intense convection across the Mediterranean and Europe, and long-term forecasts (a few days) of the likelihood of intense convection, were developed and employed. The project also focused on educational outreach through a special Web site http://flashproject.org supplying real-time lightning observations, real-time experimental nowcasts, medium-range weather forecasts and educational materials. While flash floods and intense thunderstorms cannot be prevented, long-range regional lightning networks can supply valuable data, in real time, for warning the public, end-users and stakeholders of imminent intense rainfall and possible flash floods.     

Long‐term trend analysis for precipitation in Asian Pacific FRIEND river basins

In order to analyse the long‐term trend of precipitation in the Asian Pacific FRIEND region, records from 30 river basins to represent the large range of climatic and hydrological characteristics in the study area are selected. The long‐term trend in precipitation time series and its association with the southern oscillation index (SOI) series are investigated. Application of the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test for 30 precipitation time series has shown that only four of these 30 time series have a long‐term trend at the 5% level of significance. Nevertheless, most of the records tend to decrease over the last several decades. The dataset is further divided geographically into northern, middle, and southern zones, with 20°N and 20°S latitude as the dividing lines. The middle zone has the greatest variation and the southern zone the least variation over the past century. Also, the southern zone has greater variation during the past 30 years. The association between precipitation and SOI is investigated by dividing the precipitation records of each station into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods. The Wilcoxon rank‐sum test showed that differences in precipitation for the three classes were most marked in the southern zone of the study area. The frequencies of below‐ and above‐average precipitation for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral periods are estimated for the 30 precipitation time series as well. The results show that the frequencies of precipitation under each set of conditions, with lower precipitation generally associated with El Niño periods in the southern zone. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于Cloudsat探测的一次非典型东北冷涡结构及其降水

采用ERA-Interim气象分析资料、云顶亮温TBB资料、Cloudsat云雷达资料、降雨量资料等,对2009年6月10日至12日我国东北地区的一次冷涡天气过程进行研究,重现了该冷涡的精细三维结构和演变过程.分析表明冷涡发生前,东北亚地区处于南北双槽结构之间,随后北槽向赤道发展切断后形成东北冷涡.南槽背景的冷涡热力结构特殊,强冷空气集中在涡内西北象限,暖湿空气在东北象限,南部为相对中性空气,该配置导致北部暖锋强盛,西部冷锋仅在发展初期较强,冷涡过程没有经典挪威学派的气旋锢囚锋出现.冷涡发展初期,狭长冷舌快速入侵南下,冷舌前冷锋对流降水较强,冷舌后部左侧还有暖锋降水;冷涡发展后期,冷锋减弱,冷锋上的高层云停止降水,系统内主要为冷涡北部的暖锋雨层云降水;冷涡成熟后,中心辐合加强,有较强的对流性降水.