1960-2012年鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件时空演变特征

基于鄱阳湖流域五河7个主要入湖控制站19602012年的实测径流资料,通过短周期旱涝急转指数,结合TFPW-MK趋势检验法及集合经验模态分解法,分析了鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件的时空分布、演变趋势、强度及周期变化等,并探讨了旱涝急转指数的不确定性及旱涝急转事件的成因.结果表明:鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件主要分布在310月,其中36月主要表现为“旱转涝”,710月主要表现为“涝转旱”,且不同年代间存在一定的时空差异;五河以轻度旱涝急转事件为主,重度旱涝急转事件发生频率较低,主要发生在抚河、信江和饶河流域,且多以“涝转旱”事件为主;在年代际上,鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件在1990s发生的频率最高,在2000s最低.同时,除饶河外,鄱阳湖流域年最强“涝转旱”事件的发生强度呈减弱趋势,而年最强“旱转涝”事件的发生强度在赣江和修水北支有减弱趋势,在饶河和修水南支有增强趋势.五河旱涝急转的变化存在2个特征时间尺度,分别为1 a和21~35 a,而年最强旱涝急转事件的发生强度具有3 a左右的周期变化特征.这些变化与流域降水的不均匀性及强烈的人类活动等有关.本研究结果有助于全面系统认识鄱阳湖流域在全球变暖背景下极端水文事件的发生机制和变化规律,可为鄱阳湖区防汛抗旱减灾提供重要的科学依据.     

淮河流域径流过程变化时空特征及成因

径流变化特征及成因研究对于农业灌溉、流域水资源配置与管理等具有重要理论与现实意义,而淮河流域是我国重要农业区,因而淮河流域径流过程特征及机理研究更突显其重要性.利用非参数Mann-Kendall趋势检验和小波转换等方法系统分析了淮河中上游息县、王家坝和蒋家集等9个水文站点径流资料,分析淮河流域中上游径流年内分配、年际变化、径流趋势、突变特征及周期变化等径流过程变化特征,并探讨了径流变化特征的成因.研究发现:(1)淮河中上游径流量主要集中于5-9月,约占年径流总量的70.37%,变差系数介于0.16~0.85之间,径流年际极值比则介于1.7~23.9之间,径流年际变化剧烈;(2)淮河中上游径流量整体呈下降趋势,尤其是4-5月径流下降趋势显著,季节变化不明显;(3)各站点年径流量在2000s呈显著周期变化,班台、王家坝、鲁台子和蚌埠站在该尺度上存在2.0~3.4 a尺度的小周期,息县、潢川和蒋家集站处于高能区.季节和汛期与非汛期的显著周期集中出现在1960s、1980s和2000s,1960s周期主要为2~8a.(4)潢川站年径流量对气候因子的响应最为明显,其对混合ENSO指数和太平洋中高纬年代际振荡指数(PDO)的响应分别通过了95%和99%的显著性检验.PDO对各站点月径流的直接影响最为显著,且主要集中在6月份,多呈显著负相关关系,以班台站最为显著,分别在1、4和6月通过了95%的显著性检验.南方涛动指数、北大西洋涛动指数和Nino3.4区海表温度距平指数(Nino3.4)对研究区月径流量的响应存在显著滞后性,Nino3.4对研究区月径流量滞后期的影响主要发生在潢川和蒋家集站,而北极涛动指数和PDO指数无滞后性响应.     

淮河流域夏季降水的振荡特征及其与气候背景的联系

利用1922~2007年淮河流域和长江中下游夏季降水量资料,使用小波变换、广义极值分布等方法,分析了近86年来淮河流域夏季降水的年际、年代际振荡和概率分布特征.在此基础上,分析了东亚夏季风、太平洋海表温度及东亚遥相关环流等气候背景与淮河流域夏季降水年际和年代际振荡的联系.另外,还比较了淮河流域与长江中下游夏季降水年代际振荡特征及其气候背景的差异.结果表明：①淮河流域夏季降水存在显著的准2年振荡和年代际振荡特征.准2年振荡的强弱变化与年代际振荡强弱变化一致.20世纪90年代末以来,淮河流域夏季降水处在年代际偏多期,准2年振荡特征突出,极端强降水事件的概率亦显著增加;②淮河流域夏季降水年代际振荡与PDO及东亚夏季风年代际振荡关系密切,当PDO处于冷位相年代际阶段且东亚夏季风处于年代际偏弱时,淮河流域夏季降水呈年代际偏多趋势;③淮河流域夏季降水的准2年振荡主要受到东亚夏季风准2年振荡的控制,同时与东亚环流系统从高纬至低纬的＂＋,？,＋＂特定配置有关;④淮河流域与长江中下游夏季降水存在年代际位相差异,其差异主要与西太平洋副热带高压强度和位置的年代际变化有关.     

长江流域降水径流的年代际变化分析

应用1951-2001年长江流域年、季降水量资料、1885-2001年梅雨量资料以及一百多年以来长江重要控制站宜昌、汉口、大通年径流量资料,对长江流域降水径流的年代际变化、气候转折以及降水径流的变化趋势进行了分析研究.反映出长江流域夏季降水将有更加集中的趋势,即降水时间更集中、强度趋向于更大,对防洪不利.据趋势预测,宜昌、汉口径流量有减少的趋势,大通径流量有增加的趋势.     

对长江宜昌站月平均径流量突变的分析

本文简要叙述了一阶矩突变扫描式t检验和二阶矩突变扫描式F检验算法,并应用于长江宜昌水文站1882-2002年间历年月平均径流量的实测序列,划分出24个年际至十年际时间尺度的相对5级旱、涝时段及其变率特征,与有关长江上游洪水、干旱灾害的历史记载相吻合.     

基于BTOPMC模型的土地覆被变化径流响应模拟

为分析土地覆被变化的水文效应.构建4种土地覆被情景,采用BTOPMC模型对淮河流域黄泥庄集水区1982-1986年的日径流过程进行模拟.结果表明,土地覆被变化对蒸散发量和径流量计算影响显著,与现状覆被情景的模拟结果相比,森林覆被情景蒸散发量增加,径流量减少,而林地草原和耕地覆被情景下情况相反,且各土地覆被变化情景下枯季径流深的变化幅度明显小于雨季的变化幅度.该模型能较好地分析和评价土地覆被变化下的径流响应.     

1990s长江下游干流径流量演变趋势

利用M-K相关分析方法和大通站1950-2000年逐月径流资料,研究了长江下游干流径流的趋势变化.研究结果表明:1950s以来长江下游径流量呈增加趋势,1990s平均径流量(30415.3 m³/s)比所有其他年代平均径流都大,为近50a以来的最大值;就季节和月份而言,秋季径流明显减少;夏、冬两季径流量,增加的趋势明显,尤以冬季枯水季节径流增加最为突出.洪水、枯水季节径流增加明显,但以枯水季节径流增加占优势.冬季枯水径流的增加,可能在一定程度上能够缓解长江口生态环境的巨大压力.1990s径流量的增加与全球变暖、水循环加快、长江流域降水量增加密切相关.     

1961～2006年塔里木河流域冰川融水变化及其对径流的影响

以国家气象台站的月降水与月气温资料为驱动数据、90m分辨率的数字高程模型(DEM)和第一次冰川编目的冰川分布矢量数据为基础,利用月尺度的度日模型重建了塔里木河流域各水系冰川物质平衡、融水径流序列,并应用冰川物质平衡、融水径流和平衡线高度等资料对模型进行了对比验证,表明模拟结果具有较高的可信度.对冰川物质平衡和融水径流的特征、变化趋势以及其对河流径流的贡献进行的分析表明,塔里木河流域1961～2006年平均冰川物质平衡为?139.2mm·a?1,46a冰川物质一直在加剧亏损,同期升温对冰川的影响超过降水增加的影响.塔里木河冰川融水径流的年际变化主要受控于流域内冰川的物质平衡波动,46a冰川融水径流的持续增加主要是由温度升高引起的.1961～2006年整个塔里木河流域年平均冰川融水径流量为144.16×108m3,冰川融水对河流径流的平均补给率为41.5%,并且与多年平均值相比冰川融水对河流径流的贡献在1990年之后明显增大.塔里木河流域出山径流年际变化与冰川融水径流年际变化过程基本一致,总体上呈上升趋势,并且河流径流量的增加约3/4以上源于冰川退缩的贡献.     

近50a淮河流域汛期降水日数和强度的分布与变化特征

选用1961-2010年淮河流域145个地面气象站的观测资料,分析淮河流域汛期(5-9月)降水的时空变化规律.结果表明:淮河流域汛期降水的空间分布不仅受到地理位置和地形的影响,而且与湿度和风速的空间分布具有较好的相关性;在时间变化上,雨日出现频率有下降的趋势,但暴雨日比重和暴雨日平均降水量均有升高的趋势.淮河流域汛期暴雨日出现频率以及各类型雨日的平均降水量均有上升的趋势,强降水时空变化呈现局地性和频发性.     

西北干旱区内陆河流域出山径流变化趋势对气候变化响应模型

将HBV径流模型进行改进 ,使之适合于中国西北干旱区内陆河山区流域的特征及径流形成过程 ,从而建立了用以模拟出山月径流量对气候变化响应的模型 .以河西走廊黑河山区流域为例 ,对不同的年平均气温和年降水量的变化趋势条件下出山径流的响应进行了模拟计算 .结果表明 ,如到 2 0 30年气温升高 0 .5℃ ,降水保持不变 ,5月和 1 0月的径流量将增加 ,这表明积雪融水对河流的补给将增加 ,但 7月和8月由于蒸发量的增加将使径流量有所减少 ,致使年径流量将减少 4% .如降水保持不变 ,气温升高 1℃时 ,除 5 ,6月份径流量有所增加外 ,7,8月份的径流量将减少较多 ,而年径流量将减少 7.1 1 % .若气温保持不变 ,降水量增加 1 0 % ,径流量将增加5 2 7% ;降水量增加 2 0 % ,径流量将增加 1 2 .35 % .当气温升高 0 .5℃ ,降水增加 1 0 %时 ,径流量仅增加 1 .6 2 % .     

柘林水库修河流域降水时空分布特征与旱涝研究

根据1953—1983年降水资料,分析了柘林水库修河流域降水时空分布特征和旱涝规律。降水主要集中在6月中、下旬,有时可推迟到7月中旬,此时暴雨频数高,强度大,历时长,是柘林水库洪水运行管理的关键时期。为此,需要了解梅雨晚期发生的大暴雨的形成条件和时空分布,以及梅雨期旱涝情况和采用预报的风险程度。本文在这方面进行了一些综合性分析,特别是对5,6月旱涝年份的统计规律、环流特征作了较详细的气候学对比研究。     

Trends of precipitation in Beijiang River Basin,Guangdong Province,China

An analysis of spatial and temporal trends of precipitation in Beijiang River basin, Guangdong Province, China during 1959–2003 was performed using 17 time series (including monthly, annual, wet season, dry season, early flood period and late flood period totals) both on station based and sub‐basin based data sets. Two nonparametric methods (Mann–Kendall and Sen's T) were used for data analysis. The results showed that (1) downward trends of temporal distribution were mostly detected during the early flood period, especially in May, while upward trends were observed in July and the dry season; (2) downward trends of spatial distribution were mostly detected in the southern Beijiang River basin, while upward trends were observed north of this area. Our results indicated a delayed rainy season and a northward trend of the precipitation belt compared to recent years. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐temporal scale changes of streamflow and sediment load in a loess hilly watershed of China

Global climate change and diverse human activities have resulted in distinct temporal–spatial variability of watershed hydrological regimes, especially in water‐limited areas. This study presented a comprehensive investigation of streamflow and sediment load changes on multi‐temporal scales (annual, flood season, monthly and daily scales) during 1952–2011 in the Yanhe watershed, Loess Plateau. The results indicated that the decreasing trend of precipitation and increasing trend of potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were not significant. Significant decreasing trends (p < 0.01) were detected for both the annual and flood season streamflow, sediment load, sediment concentration and sediment coefficient. The runoff coefficient exhibited a significantly negative trend (p < 0.01) on the flood season scale, whereas the decreasing trend on the annual scale was not significant. The streamflow and sediment load during July–August contributed 46.7% and 86.2% to the annual total, respectively. The maximum daily streamflow and sediment load had the median occurrence date of July 31, and they accounted for 9.7% and 29.2% of the annual total, respectively. All of these monthly and daily hydrological characteristics exhibited remarkable decreasing trends (p < 0.01). However, the contribution of the maximum daily streamflow to the annual total progressively decreased (?0.07% year^?1), while that of maximum daily sediment load increased over the last 60 years (0.08% year^?1). The transfer of sloping cropland for afforestation and construction of check‐dams represented the dominant causes of streamflow and sediment load reductions, which also made the sediment grain finer. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of antecedent conditions on simulations of a flood in a mountain headwater basin

A devastating flood struck Southern Alberta in late June 2013, with much of its streamflow generation in the Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains, west of Calgary. To better understand streamflow generation processes and their sensitivity to initial conditions, a physically based hydrological model was developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to simulate the flood for the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km²). The modular model includes major cold and warm season hydrological processes including snow redistribution, sublimation, melt, runoff over frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, subsurface runoff on hillslopes, groundwater recharge and discharge and streamflow routing. Uncalibrated simulations were conducted for eight hydrological years and generally matched streamflow observations well, with a NRMSD of 52%, small model bias (?3%) and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71. The model was then used to diagnose the responses of hydrological processes in 2013 flood from different ecozones in Marmot Creek: alpine, treeline, montane forest and large and small forest clearings to better understand spatial variations in the flood runoff generation mechanisms. To examine the sensitivity to antecedent conditions, ‘virtual’ flood simulations were conducted using a week (17 to 24 June 2013) of flood meteorology imposed on the meteorology of the same period in other years (2005 to 2012), or switched with the meteorology of one week in different months (May to July) of 2013. Sensitivity to changing precipitation and land cover was assessed by varying the precipitation amount during the flood and forest cover and soil storage capacity in forest ecozone. The results show that runoff efficiency increases rapidly with antecedent snowpack and soil moisture storage with the highest runoff response to rainfall from locations in the basin where there are recently melted or actively melting snowpacks and resulting high soil moisture or frozen soils. The impact of forest canopy on flooding is negligible, but flood peak doubles if forest canopy removal is accompanied by 50% reduction in water storage capacity in the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PRINCIPES FONDAMENTAUX DE LA THEORIE DU MOUVEMENT DES EAUX SOUTERRAINES

ABSTRACT

In southeastern Arizona, almost all summer rainfall results from widely-scattered high-intensity afternoon or evening thunderstorms of limited areal extent. For eleven years of record on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Tombstone, Arizona, about 70 percent of the annual rainfall of 11 1/2 inches and over 95 percent of the annual runoff occurred in July, August, and early September. In contrast, about 5 percent of the rainfall occurred in the previous 3 months, and about 25 percent in the remaining 6 1/2 months.

Therefore, summer rainfall, although highly variable, represented the most dependable source of water to the Walnut Gulch watershed. On the average, significant rainfall was recorded on some part of the watershed on 40 percent of the days in the critical July-August period. The maximum frequency was 3 out of every 4 days in 1955, and the minimum 3 out of every 10 days in 1960.

The wettest year was 1955, with a continuous rainy period of 47 days; whereas, the driest was 1960, with the longest rainy period lasting only 5 days. The longest summer drought during the period of record occurred in 1962, when no rain fell for 17 days in August, following a 14-day rainy period in late July.

As yet, there are not enough data to determine reliable expectancies for summer rainy or drought periods.     

Estimation of actual evaporation using precipitation and soil moisture records in arid climates

There is little knowledge available about infiltration and evaporation processes in wadi channels in arid regions. This work was conducted to determine the actual evaporation from bare soils in wadi channels in the south-western region of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The estimation of soil evaporation is highly dependent on the availability of moisture in the upper layers of alluvial wadis, in which the areal rainfall, flood hydrograph and soil properties play a significant part. The study was conducted by estimating the actual evaporation using soil moisture data, precipitation and runoff depths in a representative basin. The results are compared with potential rates. The actual rates were 1.5 mm/day immediately after a rainy day and then decreased to 0.42 mm/day. The minimum rate was about 0.1–0.2 mm/day during the dry season. The potential rates were about 9.5 mm/day in June and July, decreasing to 3.5 mm/day in December and January.     

The influence of freeze–thaw cycles of active soil layer on surface runoff in a permafrost watershed

As a result of global warming, the discharges from rivers in permafrost regions have varied significantly. However, its mechanism remains unclear. One of possible factors is active soil freeze–thaw cycle, which may influence surface runoff in the variation of permafrost water cycle processes. In this study, a typical permafrost watershed in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau was selected, its hydrological processes were monitored from 2004 to 2007, and the effects of the freezing and thawing depth of the soil active layer on runoff processes were assessed. The runoff modulus, runoff coefficient, direct runoff ratio, recession gradient and their seasonal variations were estimated and analyzed. The active soil dynamics and water budget were analyzed to prove the features of the surface runoff and the influences of active soil freeze–thaw processes. The primary factors influencing surface runoff processes during different seasons were analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and statistical regression methods. The results showed that the high runoff coefficient and low direct runoff ratio were the main characteristics during the spring flood period (May–June) and during the autumn recession period (September). The runoff modulus and its year-to-year variability were the greatest in the summer flood period. The direct runoff ratio decreased from 0.43 in May to 0.29 in September, with the exception of the highest ratio, which occurred during the summer recession period (July). The active soil thawing in the upper layer of depth of 60 cm had contributed to increase in discharge, but the increase in thawing depth deeper than 60 cm led to a decrease in surface runoff and slowness in the recession process. Precipitation played a small role in the spring flood runoff and the autumn runoff. The soil active layer freeze–thaw variation, which affected seasonal soil water dynamic and water budget and reformed seasonal runoff characteristics, along with vegetation cover changes, is considered the potential major factor in control of the hydrological processes in the permafrost region.     

Statistical analysis of flash flood events for designing water harvesting systems in an extremely arid environment

A water harvesting system for research purposes has been established in the Lisan Peninsula of the Dead Sea in the middle of the Jordan Rift Valley, where no authorized guideline is available for designing water harvesting systems. Rainfall and runoff, which occurred as flash floods, were observed at the downstream end of a gorge with a 1.12 km² barren catchment area from October 2014 through July 2019. Due to the extremely arid environment, runoff from the catchment is ephemeral, and the flash flood events can be clearly distinguishable from each other. Thirteen flash flood events with a total runoff volume of more than 100 m³ were successfully recorded during the five rainy seasons. Pearson and Spearman correlations between duration, total rainfall depths at two points, total runoff volume, maximum runoff discharge, bulk runoff coefficient, total variation in runoff discharge and maximum variation in runoff discharge of each flash flood event were examined, revealing no straightforward relationship between rainfall and runoff. The performance of the conventional SCS runoff curve number method was also deficient in reproducing any rainfall–runoff relationship. Therefore, probability distribution fitting was performed for each random variable, focusing on the lognormal distribution with three parameters and the generalized extreme value distribution. The maximum goodness-of-fit estimation turns out to be a more rational and efficient method in obtaining the parameter values of those probability distributions rather than the standard maximum likelihood estimation, which has known disadvantages. Results support the design of the water harvesting system and provide quantitative information for designing and operating similar systems in the future.     

Space–time changes in hydrological processes in response to human activities and climatic change in the south China

Due to the influence of climate change and human activities, more and more regions around the world are nowadays facing serious water shortages. This is particularly so with the Guangdong province, an economically prosperous region in China. This study aims at understanding the abrupt behavior of hydrological processes by analyzing monthly precipitation series from 257 rain gauging stations and monthly streamflow series from 25 hydrological stations using the likelihood ratio statistic and schwarz information criterion (SIC). The underlying causes of the changing properties of hydrological processes are investigated by analyzing precipitation changes and information of water reservoirs. It is found that (1) streamflow series in dry season seems to exhibit abrupt changes when compared to that in the flood season; (2) abrupt changes in the values of mean and variance of hydrological variables in the dry season are more common than those in the streamflow series in the flood season, which implies that streamflow in the dry season is more sensitive to human activities and climate change than that in the flood season; (3) no change points are identified in the annual precipitation and precipitation series in the flood season. Annual streamflow and streamflow in the flood season exhibit no abrupt changes, showing the influence of precipitation on streamflow changes in the flood season. However, streamflow changes in the dry season seem to be heavily influenced by hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. The results of this study are of practical importance for regional water resource management in the Guangdong province.