Uncertainty Analysis and Expert Judgment in Seismic Hazard Analysis

The large uncertainty associated with the prediction of future earthquakes is usually regarded as the main reason for increased hazard estimates which have resulted from some recent large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis studies (e.g. the PEGASOS study in Switzerland and the Yucca Mountain study in the USA). It is frequently overlooked that such increased hazard estimates are characteristic for a single specific method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): the traditional (Cornell?CMcGuire) PSHA method which has found its highest level of sophistication in the SSHAC probability method. Based on a review of the SSHAC probability model and its application in the PEGASOS project, it is shown that the surprising results of recent PSHA studies can be explained to a large extent by the uncertainty model used in traditional PSHA, which deviates from the state of the art in mathematics and risk analysis. This uncertainty model, the Ang?CTang uncertainty model, mixes concepts of decision theory with probabilistic hazard assessment methods leading to an overestimation of uncertainty in comparison to empirical evidence. Although expert knowledge can be a valuable source of scientific information, its incorporation into the SSHAC probability method does not resolve the issue of inflating uncertainties in PSHA results. Other, more data driven, PSHA approaches in use in some European countries are less vulnerable to this effect. The most valuable alternative to traditional PSHA is the direct probabilistic scenario-based approach, which is closely linked with emerging neo-deterministic methods based on waveform modelling.     

地震危险性概率分析与洪水频度分析的对比

地震危险性概率分析(PSHA)最初是从相类似的洪水、风暴问题的分析方法发展而来的,而且被完整的应用到风险分析中。后来,PSHA被直接引入到地震动非确定性分析。如此直接引入非确定性分析缺乏清楚的物理基础,使人在非确定性分析中很难理解、解释和运用PSHA。这一困难导致了诸如房     

Analysis of GPS Measurements in Eastern Canada Using Principal Component Analysis

Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) position time series from eastern North America constrain the pattern and magnitude of regional crustal deformation. Initial analysis delineates consistent uplift patterns, as expected from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) predictions, but the associated horizontal deformation is not definitive, in part due to the short time periods for a significant number of the available stations. We employ an eigenpattern decomposition in order to define a unique, finite set of deformation patterns for this continuous GPS data. Similar in nature to the empirical orthogonal functions historically employed in the analysis of atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena, the method derives the eigenvalues and eigenstates from the diagonalization of the correlation matrix using a Karhunen–Loeve expansion (KLE). The KLE technique is used to identify the important modes in both time and space for the CGPS data, modes that potentially include signals such as horizontal and vertical GIA, tectonic strain, and seasonal effects. Here we filter both the vertical and horizontal velocity patterns on different spatiotemporal scales in order to study the potential geophysical sources, after the removal of correlated and random noise. The method is successful in disaggregating the linear vertical signal from more variable and less spatially correlated signals. The vertical and horizontal results are compared to the predictions of the ICE-3G GIA loading model with a number of plausible mantle viscosity profiles. The horizontal velocity analysis allows for qualitative differentiation between several potential GIA models and suggests that, with longer time series, this technique can be employed to remove correlated noise and improve estimates of crustal strain patterns and their sources.     

利用逐步回归分析红山地磁台观测数据质量

选用逐步回归分析方法,利用红山地磁台2009年观测数据的基线值数据,计算台站地磁观测系统的温度系数与滑动系数以及年剩余均方差,通过这3个指标的结果,给出观测系统受这3个参数影响的程度,为控制红山台地磁观测数据的质量提供依据.同时,对台站合理的选用基线值提供有力帮助.     

频率-波数分析基础理论及上海地震台阵响应分析

自1960年开始,地震台阵技术迅猛发展,给地震学研究带来了新的冲击。作为一种新型的研究工具,它主要用来降低全球地震和核爆破的检测阈值和研究地球内部结构。     

小波分析方法在宁夏短水准资料分析中的应用

建立了小波分解模型,应用该模型将宁夏红果子形变台及苏峪口形变台短水准观测资料中的不同周期成分进行了有效分离。分离后的3阶近似及3阶细节部分所显示的异常变化能够更直观和显著地对应宁夏及周边地区发生的地震。     

抗震分析反应谱法和时程分析法数值仿真比较

基于ANSYS有限元软件比较抗震分析反应谱法和时程分析法的地震数值仿真结果,研究二者的共同性和仿真结果的可比较性。结果表明,反应谱法和时程分析法在抗震反应计算中都体现了地震动特性和结构动态特性对结构地震响应的影响,二者在响应最值和响应频率上的仿真结果具有一致性。     

Airborne Gradiometry Error Analysis

Gravity gradiometry is one of the older methods of determining the Earth’s local gravitational field, but lies in the shadow of more conventional static and moving-base gravimeter-based systems. While the static torsion balance appears to have been relegated to the museum, support for the airborne and space-borne differential accelerometer (gradiometer) continues so as to overcome limitations in spatial resolution and accuracy inherent in ordinary moving-base gravimetry. One airborne system exists, building on 30 year old technology concepts, and new technologies (e.g., cold-atom interferometry) promise significant improvements. Concomitant advances are required to measure accurately the angular velocity and angular acceleration of the platform, which inseparably combine (in an absolute sense) with the Earth’s gravitational gradients. A numerical analysis of instrument errors, with simulated aircraft dynamics, shows that navigation-grade gyros are just sufficient to account for these effects in gradiometers with 1E/ sensitivity. More accurate instruments, with 0.1 E/ sensitivity, require commensurate sensitivity in the gyros, of the order of 0.01°/h/ = 1.5\times10^{−4 °} \ for typical survey aircraft dynamics. On the other hand, typical orientation errors in the platform, which are problematic for vector gravimetry, are much less of a concern in gradiometry. They couple to the gradient signals and affect only the very low frequencies of the total gradient error.     

血管母细胞瘤的MRI表现与诊断

目的:探讨血管母细胞瘤的MRI表现.材料与方法:经手术及病理证实的血管母细胞瘤10例,均行MRI平扫加增强扫描.结果:大囊小结节型肿瘤,在MRI表现为囊性病灶及附壁结节,实质型肿瘤表现为实质肿块,偏心性囊变,异常血管流空和显著强化.单纯囊型肿瘤表现为囊性病灶.结论:血管母细胞瘤的MRI特征表现是囊肿和壁结节、异常血管流空效应以及肿瘤的异常增强.MRI是诊断血管母细胞瘤的最有效的检查方法.     

基于主成分分析的多能谱CT图像分析方法研究

基于光子计数探测器的能谱CT,可以同时采集多个能谱通道的投影数据,并获得相应能量范围内物质的吸收特征,可以有效应用于物质识别与材料分解。主成分分析是一种很好的多元数据分析技术,可以用于处理多能谱CT数据。本文分别在投影域和图像域对能谱CT数据进行主成分分析,并对分析结果做出系统比较。为了减少噪声的影响,提高能谱CT图像的彩色表征性能,提出双域滤波与像素值平方相结合的方法,用于含噪声的主成分图像去噪,然后将所选取的主成分图像映射到RGB颜色通道。实验结果表明,无论是在投影域还是图像域进行主成分分析,都可以获取清晰的CT图像,识别出物质的不同成分。相较于在图像域的主成分分析方法,在投影域进行主成分分析能够保留物质的更多细节,获取更清晰的彩色CT图像。      

Analysis of Y-component of Geomagnetic Field and SYM-H Index Using Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Electrodynamical coupling between the solar wind’s plasma and the Earth’s magnetosphere creates geomagnetic disturbances recorded on the ground. This work...     

Analysis of cross-correlated chaotic streamflows

Abstract

A trial is made to explore the applicability of chaos analysis outside the commonly reported analysis of a single chaotic time series. Two cross-correlated streamflows, the Little River and the Reed Creek, Virginia, USA, are analysed with regard to the chaotic behaviour. Segments of missing data are assumed in one of the time series and estimated using the other complete time series. Linear regression and artificial neural network models are employed. Two experiments are conducted in the analysis: (a) fitting one global model and (b) fitting multiple local models. Each local model is in the direct vicinity of the missing data. A nonlinear noise reduction method is used to reduce the noise in both time series and the two experiments are repeated. It is found that using multiple local models to estimate the missing data is superior to fitting one global model with regard to the mean squared error and the mean relative error of the estimated values. This result is attributed to the chaotic behaviour of the streamflows under consideration.     

管土动力相互作用分析

相互作用问题是地下管线动力分析中的重点和难点。本文借助于大型有限元软件ABAQUS/Standard中的管土相互作用单元(Pipe-soil interaction element,简称PSI单元)并利用直剪试验实测的接触面本构关系,对管线与土体之间的相互作用进行了数值模拟研究,计算得到了地下管线在动力作用下的内力和变形。分析结果与试验结果的对比表明,本文方法具有良好的计算精度,对地下管线的分析和设计具有参考意义。     

Analysis of block random rocking

The stochastic rocking of a rigid block due to shaking of its foundation is examined. The foundation is flexible (Winkler) and its independent springs and dashpots separate from the block base when tension is incipient. Modulated white noise is used as a model of horizontal acceleration of the foundation. The statistics of the rocking response are found by an analytical procedure which involves a combination of static condensation and stochastic linearization. The analytical solution is computationally efficient and compares well with pertinent data obtained by numerical simulations.     

白鹤坪边坡稳定性分析

边坡监测可为掌握边坡变形特征和规律提供依据,指导在边坡发生严重变形时的应急处理。白鹤坪边坡是三峡库区的典型边坡,依据边坡的变形特征定性地认为该边坡为潜在的推移式滑坡。1998年调查发现白鹤边坡存在一定的滑移,为了对其实施监测预报、预警,减轻因其滑动而引起的地质灾害,在该边坡上建立了由10个GPS观测点组成的边坡位移观测系统,以监测边坡的变形。本文以2014年5月至2016年4月近两年的白鹤坪边坡变形观测系统所获得的位移数据为基础,对边坡的位移变形进行了统计,并结合数值模拟分析了边坡的水平向相对位移。分析表明,在边坡由缓变陡处变形显著增加,边坡现处于基本稳定状态,其变形主要受降雨影响,每年汛期时（5-10月）边坡变形量偏高。其次为库水作用影响,江水对坡脚冲蚀,使边坡前缘局部产生了小规模崩滑现象。     

计算机网络安全分析

网络的空前应用，使网络安全问题成为信息业和企业关注的焦点。对威胁网络安全的主客观原因进行了分析，列举出近几年威胁网络安全的种类和常用工具，以及各种威胁可能会给网络带来的负面影响，提醒地震科技工作者积极防范。     

地震信息的失真现象分析

随着信息在社会发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色,地震信息对社会的影响也越来越明显。本文着重分析了地震信息失真传播的成因、特点以及对策,为管理地震信息提供借鉴。