中国登陆台风的统计预报

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002,a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.     

SHORT COMMUNICATION THE RELATIONSHIP OF CLOSURE,MEAN CENTERING AND MATRIX RANK INTERPRETATION

This paper describes an investigation into the relationship of closure,a baseline offset and mean centeringto the interpretation of matrix rank.The equivalence of a certain type of closure to a constant baseline(i.e.a simple numerical offset which may vary between response channels but is constant over all samples)is demonstrated.A systematic approach to the interpretation of the rank of a matrix is given.     

ECOLOGICALLY STRATEGIC POINTS IN LANDSCAPE AND SURFACE MODEL

Various processes occur across a landscape, including ecological processes such as the movement of species, the flow of nutrients, the spread of fire and other disturbances, and the diffusion of pollutants, economic processes such as land conversion for agricultural production, marketing of new product, transportation and immigration; political and diplomatic processes such as the construction of political influence sphere at local, national and global scale. At the fact of limited space and resources on the surface of the earth, a generic issue regarding these processes across the landscapes is: how to control (promote or retard) the processes efficiently, namely using less energy and space for a bigger influence sphere. The overall assumption for this issue is that, there are some positions and portion in a landscape that may have critical influence on a certain process across the landscape. These critical positions in a landscape are called strategic points. Occupancy of these strategic points may give a process the momentum of controlling and covering the landscape more effectively, due to their quality of; Initiative, occupancy of these points may give the process the advantage of leading the game; Co-ordlnation, occupancy of these points may give the process the advantage of forming an overall influence sphere; Efficiency, occupancy of these points may give the process the advantage of having a bigger coverage of the landscape while costing less energy. By identifying and using these critical positions and portions in the landscape, therefore, may unproportionately increase the efficiency of controlling this process. It is further assumed that, in order to take control of the landscape, the process has to overcome a certain resistance. A resistance surface can therefore visualize the dynamics of the process itself. The resistance surface resembles a topographic surface, indicating where the process (flow) diverges or converges. It is, therefore, possible to identify strategically important positions or portions in a landscape that may have important influence on the dynamics of the process. Assuming species movement across a landscape is a competitive gaming process of control and coverage against some resistance, this paper discusses a methodology of identifying strategic points according to the properties of resistance surfaces which resembles a gaming board as well as a topographic surface. Three types of resistance surfaces are discussed: The archipelago type: where lower resistance islands are surrounded by higher resistance matrix, representing such landscapes as agricultural fields dotted with native forest patches. The network type: where the lower resistance portions form a linear network surrounded by higher resistance matrix. The plateau type: where, areas with higher resistance are surrounded by lower resistance matrix. Accordingly, five types of strategic points are identified in terms of their locations. They are strategic points at saddle points , at intersections, at the center, at an edge and at a corner. Strategic points for biodivershy conservation are minimax points in a given resistance surface associated with the dispersibility of a certain species. A case study is used to illustrate the methodology. The rules leading to the strategic points are largely hypothetical, though supported by a limited number of observations. This approach may provide a framework and a new model of thinking for field observations of landscape ecology as well as landscape change.     

泥石流颗粒组成的分形特征

1 IntroductionD ebris flow s in certain sense are a process of m ass interchanges through erosion and depositionbetw een the fluid and the sedim ent; and the interchange of m aterial caused change in thestructure of the flow s that can be ultim ately redu…     

中国耕地和农村宅基地利用转型耦合特征与机制(英文)

Land use transition refers to the changes in land use morphology (both dominant morphology and recessive morphology) of a certain region over a certain period of time driven by socio-economic change and innovation, and it usually corresponds to the transition of socio-economic development phase. In China, farmland and rural housing land are the two major sources of land use transition. This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal coupling characteristics of farmland and rural housing land transition in China, using high-resolution Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) data in 2000 and 2008, and the data from the Ministry of Land and Resources of China. The outcomes indicated that: (1) during 2000-2008, the cor-relation coefficient of farmland vs. rural housing land change is -0.921, and it shows that the change pattern of farmland and rural housing land is uncoordinated; (2) the result of Spear-man rank correlation analysis shows that rural housing land change has played a major role in the mutual transformation of farmland and rural housing land; and (3) it shows a high-degree spatial coupling between farmland and rural housing land change in southeast China during 2000-2008. In general, farmland and rural housing land transition in China is driven by socio-economic, bio-physical and managerial three-dimensional driving factors through the interactions among rural population, farmland and rural housing land. However, the spatio-temporal coupling phenomenon and mechanism of farmland and rural housing land transition in China are largely due to the "dual-track" structure of rural-urban develop-ment.     

城市群地区创业风险投资的时空分异规律及影响因素分析（英文）

Under China's innovation-driven development strategy, venture capital has become an important driving force in urban agglomeration integration and collaborative innovation. This paper uses social network analysis to analyze spatiotemporal differences of venture capital in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration for the period 2005–2015. A gravity model and panel data regression model are used to reveal the influencing factors on spatiotemporal differences in venture capital in the region. This study finds that there is a certain cyclical fluctuation and uneven differentiation in the venture capital network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in terms of total investment, and that the three centers of venture capital(Beijing, Shijiazhuang and Tangshan) have a stimulatory effect on surrounding cities; flows of venture capital between cities display certain networking rules, but they are slow to develop and strongly centripetal; there is a strong positive correlation between levels of information infrastructure development and economic development and venture capital investment; and places with relatively underdeveloped financial environments and service industries are less able to apply the fruits of innovation and entrepreneurship and to attract funds. This study can act as a reference for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in building a world-class super urban agglomeration with the best innovation capabilities in China.     

现行普适降水入渗产流模型的比较研究:SCS与LCM(英文)

Runoff calculation is one of the key components in the hydrological modeling. For a certain spatial scale, runoff is a very complex nonlinear process. Currently, the runoff yield model in different hydrological models is not unique. The Chinese LCM model and the American SCS model describe runoff at the macroscopic scale, taking into account the relationship between total actual retention and total rainfall and having a certain similarity. In this study, by comparing the two runoff yield models using theoretical analyses and numerical simulations, we have found that:(1) the SCS model is a simple linear representation of the LCM model, and the LCM model reflects more significantly the nonlinearity of catchment runoff.(2) There are strict mathematical relationships between parameters(R, r) of the LCM model and between parameters(S) of the SCS model, respectively. Parameters(R, r) of the LCM can be determined using the research results of the SCS model parameters.(3) LCM model parameters(R, r) can be easily obtained by field experiments, while SCS parameters(S) are difficult to measure. Therefore, parameters(R, r) of the LCM model also can provide the foundation for the SCS model.(4) The SCS model has a linear relationship between the reciprocal of total actual retention and the reciprocal of total rainfall during runoff period. The one-order terms of a Taylor series expansion of the LCM model describe the same relationship, which is worth further study.     

A STATISTICAL PROCEDURE TO EVALUATE CLEAN-UP STANDARDS

The object of this paper is to develop a suitable statistical procedure to evaluate clean-up standards athazardous waste sites.Under the assumptions that contaminant masses at a site follow a gammadistribution and that the data from the pre-remediation baseline sample as well as from the interim orfinal sample taken after a certain period of operation are both distributed as gamma with the same shapeparameter but different scale parameters,we derive a uniformly most powerful unbiased test of thehypothesis that a specified percentage of contaminant mass has been reduced.A large-sampleapproximation of the exact test procedure and a comparison with the likelihood ratio test are provided.     

中国省区间制造业空间格局演变(英文)

This paper, concerning uneven development in China, empirically analyzes the core–periphery gradient of manufacturing industries across provinces(autonomous regions, municipalities), and assesses the extent to which these provinces have changed in recent years. Since China's reform and opening-up, the spatial structure of the economy has presented a significant core–periphery pattern, the core evidently skewing towards east-coastal areas. With the deepening of market reforms and expansion of globalization, industrial location is gradually in line with the development advantages of provinces. The core provinces specialize in those industries characterized by strong forward and backward linkages, as well as a high consumption ratio, a high degree of increasing returns to scale, and labor or human-capital intensity. However, it is the opposite with regard to peripheral provinces, in addition, energy intensive industries are gradually concentrating in these areas. To a certain degree, the comparative advantage theory and new economic geography identify the underlying forces that determine the spatial distribution of manufacturing industries in China. This paper indicates that the industrialization of regions along different gradients becomes unsynchronized will be a long-term trend. Within a certain period, regions are bound to develop industrial sectors in line with their respective characteristics and development stage. A core–periphery pattern of industries also indicates that industrial development differentials across regions arise because of not only the uneven distribution of industries but also the inconsistent evolving trends of industrial structure for each province.     

1711-1982年云南雨季早晚序列的重建与夏季风变迁

According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yunnan during 1711-1982 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious fluctuations in the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan in a year or years, and long fluctuation on the decadal scale. The rainy season comes earlier in the early 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exists an obvious quasi-3 years cycle, which is related to EI-Nino＇s quasi-3 years cycle, and a 11.3-year cycle which is notably related to the 11-year cycle of the solar activity of starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the EI-Nino is very important to the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of EI-Nino. However, there is an obvious imperfect period in such influence, which in turn may mean that there is a certain fluctuation in the effect of ENSO on Asian summer monsoon.     

Areal differentiation of spermatophytic flora in Henan Province

Henan province, located between 110°21’E—116°39’E and 31°23’N—36°22’N, stretches from warm-temperate to subtropical transitional zone. Its special position and resultant varied physical conditions, in its long geologic history, give rise to not only a rich but also complex and prominently transitional flora. Therefore, in-depth study of the floristic areal differentiation is of importance to Chinese florilization and in accurately drawing the boundary of warm-temperate and subtropic zones in China. Based on the recent floristic data, this paper conducts comparison and analysis of the floristic difference and resemblance among the Dabie, Tongbai, Funiu and Taihang Mts. in Henan province. The result shows that the Dabie and the Tongbai Mts. have the similar flora components, the northern and the southern slopes of the Funiu Mts. have identical flora, but the Taihang Mts. stand alone in their floristic character. Therefore these mountainous areas should be grouped into three floral regions in China: the Dabie and the Tongbai Mts. belong to East China Floral Region, the Taihang Mts. to North China Floral Region, and the two slopes of the Funiu Mts. to Central China region.     

河南省植物区系地域分异研究

在最新植物区系资料的基础上,对河南省境内的大别山、桐柏山、伏牛山南北两坡和太行山等地的种子植物区系的差异性和相似性进行了对比分析,结果为大别山与桐柏山的关系最为密切,伏牛山南北两坡的关系最为密切,而太行山与前四者的相似性系数均小,它们在中国的植物分区中应分属于三个不同的植物地区。大别山和桐柏山应属华东植物地区,太行山属华北植物地区,而伏牛山南北两坡关系密切不宜分为两个植物地区,但伏牛山中国特有种的地理成分更接近华中植物地区。     

伏牛山和鸡公山自然保护区植物区系比较

比较研究了河南省内伏牛山和鸡公山两个自然保护区的植物区系,并计算了两地植物相似性系数。研究发现两地植物区系具有一定的相似性,但也存在一定的差异。伏牛山的植物区系整体上的过渡性更强,与华中区和华北区的联系比较紧密,既有热带、亚热带分布种,北温带分布种也占有一定的地位。鸡公山更趋近于北亚热带植物区系。     

陕南化龙山种子植物区系地理成分研究

化龙山种子植物区系的地理成分复杂,联系广泛,温带成分为主(有428属,占60.62%),热带成分次之(有235属,占33.28%),具有明显的暖温带向亚热带过渡特征。本区集中了丰富的中国特有成分及大量原始的温带属和众多的古老孑遗植物,是我国第三纪植物区系的重要“避难所”.区系地理成分的比较分析表明,化龙山应位于华中植物区系的边缘地带,很可能是东亚植物区系东西两大植物亚区的交汇地。     

植物区系地理研究中的重要参数——相似性系数*

相似性系数的正确理解和运用,对植物区系地理学中的植物区系分区、过渡区的植物区系地理属性及植物区系起源演化都具有重要的理论意义。文中通过相似性系数、种相似性系数、属相似性系数和科相似性系数等术语的阐述,提出了"区系相似性系数(Coeficient of simi-larity of flora)"概念。简要介绍了属或种(或科)相似性系数在应用中存在的问题和解决的办法。并建议在植物区系地理比较研究中采取统一、科学的计算公式。     

大别山天堂寨自然保护区蕨类植物区系特征

对大别山天堂寨自然保护区蕨类植物的科、属、种分别进行统计,分析了其区系组成、区系性质和区系特点及其生态学特征。种的相似性系数分析结果表明该区与九华山、黄山、板桥山地的区系联密切,而与武夷山、长白山、秦岭的区系关系则较为疏远。在植物区第亲缘上,该区隶属东亚植物区、中国－日本森林植物亚区、华东地区。     

Mineral magnetism and other characteristics of sediments from an alpine lake (3,410 m a.s.l.) in central China and implications for late Holocene climate and environment

The Qinling Mountain Range (33°–34°30′N, 107°–111°E; 3,767 m a.s.l.) lies south of the Chinese Loess Plateau and functions as the boundary between ‘north’ and ‘south’ China. Taibai Mountain (33°41′–34°10′N, 107°19′–107°58′E; 3,767 m a.s.l.) is the central massif and highest part of the range and is the highest mountain in eastern and central China, east of 105°E. It is also one of two mountains higher than the modern climatic timberline and the only one where high alpine lakes (>2,500 m a.s.l.) exist in eastern and central China. Sediments were recovered from Foye Chi (33°57′N, 107°44′E; 3,410 m a.s.l.), a small lake on the southern slope of the mountain, and measured for magnetic properties. Chronological control was achieved with AMS ¹⁴C dating. Combined with analyses of particle-size, TOC, C/N, δ¹³C_org and pollen in these sediments, and magnetic properties of catchment soils, the mineral-magnetic data reveal late Holocene palaeoenvironmental changes on the high-altitude southern slope of Taibai Mountain. Climate gradually ameliorated about 2,300 cal yr BP and warm and wet conditions occurred afterwards, culminating from 1,700 to 1,510 cal yr BP. The climate began to deteriorate at 1,510 cal yr BP, but was still warmer and wetter than present until ~663 cal yr BP. Cool, arid conditions peaked and were cooler and drier than the present at 663–290 cal yr BP, coincident with the Little Ice Age. Climate became warmer and more humid again after 290 cal yr BP. Data from these less anthropologically-disturbed alpine-lake sediments provide a record of late Holocene palaeoenvironmental change that supplements information from historical documents and literature for eastern and central China.     

六盘山植物区系基本特征的初步分析

六盘山位于陕甘宁交接地区,属于半湿润气候向半干旱气候的过渡带,是黄土高原生物多样性最丰富的地区之一,有维管植物836种,隶属于93科,359属。本区属于泛北极植物区、中国-日本森林植物亚区、华北植物地区的黄土高原亚地区。全部种子植物可分为13个分布区类型和12个变型,以北温带分布类型为主,与其他植物区系联系广泛,但特有属较贫乏。六盘山与小陇山、太白山和中条山的属相似性系数较高,均达60%以上,表明几座山体处于相似的生物气候背景之下,地理隔离性不明显。与贺兰山的属相似性系数低于60%,因为贺兰山位于干旱的荒漠与半荒漠区,可能有地理隔离作用。     

中国城市扩展对气温观测的影响及其高估程度(英文)

Since the implementation of the reform and opening up policy in China in the late 1970s, some meteorological stations ’entered’ cities passively due to urban expansion. Changes in the surface and built environment around the stations have influenced observations of air temperature. When the observational data from urban stations are applied in the interpolation of national or regional scale air temperature dataset, they could lead to overestimation of regional air temperature and inaccurate assessment of warming. In this study, the underlying surface surrounding 756 meteorological stations across China was identified based on remote sensing images over a number of time intervals to distinguish the rural stations that ’entered’ into cities. Then, after removing the observational data from these stations which have been influenced by urban expansion, a dataset of background air temperatures was generated by interpolating the observational data from the remaining rural stations. The mean urban heat island effect intensity since 1970 was estimated by comparing the original observational records from urban stations with the background air temperature interpolated. The result shows that urban heat island effect does occur due to urban expansion, with a higher intensity in winter than in other seasons. Then the overestimation of regional air temperature is evaluated by comparing the two kinds of grid datasets of air temperature which are respectively interpolated by all stations’ and rural stations’ observational data. Spatially, the overestimation is relatively higher in eastern China than in the central part of China; however, both areas exhibit a much higher effect than is observed in western China. We concluded that in the last 40 years the mean temperature in China increased by about 1.58℃, of which about 0.01℃ was attributed to urban expansion, with a contribution of up to 0.09℃ in the core areas from the overestimation of air temperature.     

An Early Pliocene lake and its surrounding vegetation in Zhejiang,East China

The palynomorph composition of an Early Pliocene assemblage from Du’ao Lake, Zhejiang Province, East China, including sporomorphs and algae, was analyzed to reconstruct the vegetation and climate around the lake, as well as the environmental conditions in the lake. A subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest surrounding the lake is inferred from the pollen data. The composition of the green algae community indicates a clear, shallow (about 5–6 m deep), mesotrophic freshwater lake. The inferred pH was about 7.0–8.0 during the algae growing season. Applying the Coexistence Approach, the climatic conditions in Early Pliocene Du’ao were: (1) mean annual temperature ranged from 18.1 to 22.0°C, (2) difference in temperature between the coldest and warmest months ranged from 14.2 to 15.1°C, (3) mean temperature of the coldest month varied from 10.7 to 12.1°C, (4) mean temperature of the warmest month ranged from 23.5 to 25.4°C, (5) mean annual precipitation varied from about 994 to 1,255 mm, (6) minimum monthly precipitation ranged from about 9 to 11 mm, and (7) maximum monthly precipitation varied from approximately 219 to 245 mm. These values indicate that the Early Pliocene climate was subtropical.