关于百色市开展气候可行性论证的几点浅见

探讨了进行重大项目气候可行性论证的必要性,并分析百色市气候可行性论证的基本现状和目前开展气候可行性论证存在的问题,提出一些加强气候可行性论证工作的建议,以期促进本地气候可行性论证的发展.     

气候可行性论证工作浅析

根据建设项目需要和气候可行性论证发展特点,提出了气候可行性论证的指导原则及要求,从工程建设的合理布局和保护气候环境的基点出发,对气候可行性论证的范围、内容,以及气候可行性论证分析与评价进行了探讨。     

浅论重大项目气候可行性论证

本文初步探讨了进行重大项目气候可行性论证的必要性,介绍了气候可行性论证的相关概念,分析了气候可行性论证的项目分类、主要论证内容、技术方法等,回顾了我国气候可行性论证工作的四个发展阶段,分析了气候可行性论证工作的现状,指出了目前存在着社会认识存在偏差,管理制度不健全,技术标准体系不完善,队伍建设有待加强四个方面的问题,并提出了相应的对策和建议。     

浅析江西省气候可行性论证工作存在的问题及对策

近年来江西省气候可行性论证工作为工业、农业、金融、保险、交通、电力、能源、城市规划和大型工程建设等国民经济建设提供了重要的科技支撑。本文阐述了江西省气候可行性论证发展存在的问题,提出发展对策,以期为江西省气候可行性论证工作的发展提供借鉴。为更好地发挥气候可行论证在服务江西生态文明建设中的作用,应加强专业人才引进,提高技术服务水平,主动加大宣传力度,提升社会公众对气候论证重要性的认识,增强与政府有关部门沟通和协作,推进部门内外联动机制建设,建立气候可行性论证项目事中事后监管体系,扩大气候可行性论证的社会影响力。     

气候可行性论证工作浅析

根据建设项目需要和气候可行性论证发展特点，提出了气候可行性论证的指导原则及要求，从工程建设的合理布局和保护气候环境的基点出发，对气候可行性论证的范围、内容，以及气候可行性论证分析与评价进行了探讨。     

浅谈建设项目开展气候可行性论证的必要性

根据开展气候论证工作经验,结合古今中外的例子,论述了城市规划、重点建设工程、太阳能、风能开发利用必须开展气候可行性论证的必要性,并对今后如何开展气候可行论证工作提出了相应的对策和建议。     

加强气候可行性论证监管工作的思考

在梳理气候可行性论证监管工作法律政策依据和监管工作现状的基础上,分析了气候可行性论证监管工作存在的主要问题,提出了从完善法制保障、清晰界定各方职责、实施差别化监管、鼓励竞争、提高社会公众认知度等方面加强气候可行性论证监管工作的建议。     

加强气候可行性论证监管工作的思考

在梳理气候可行性论证监管工作法律政策依据和监管工作现状的基础上,分析了气候可行性论证监管工作存在的主要问题,提出了从完善法制保障、清晰界定各方职责、实施差别化监管、鼓励竞争、提高社会公众认知度等方面加强气候可行性论证监管工作的建议。     

重大工程气候可行性论证进展

论述了重大工程开展气候可行性论证的必要性及意义,分析了当前我国重大工程气候可行性论证在技术、业务和服务方面的进展及存在的问题和解决问题的思路措施,指出了重大工程气候可行性论证关键技术,包括对极端天气气候事件变化的未来预估、对工程与环境间相互影响的数值模拟、对多源立体气候环境信息的综合探测、对灾害影响和致灾风险的动态评估,以及对区域代表性气象参数的实时更新,以期为我国重大工程项目气候可行性论证提供借鉴。     

大型工程气候可行性论证中的空间分析方法与应用

当前大型工程项目的气候可行性论证需要更加精细的评估结论,以满足工程规划、设计和运营等气象防灾减灾的需要。利用1∶25万基础地理信息资料和气象部门在沿湖、沿江、沿海和内陆地区多个大型桥梁工程、核电工程、风电工程等大型工程项目气候可行性论证工作中积累的工程短期气象观测资料和邻近气象站同期同步观测资料、历史气候资料,探讨大型工程气候可行性论证的工程区气候要素极值计算方法和有效的空间插值计算方案,初步建立了基于空间信息分析方法的工程气候可行性论证和系统流程。实际应用表明：采用空间趋势面分析和空间相关分析、空间回归等分析手段的工程气候论证,考虑了项目周边地区气象要素的空间相关性和地形下垫面状况等地理信息,并且具有比常规论证手段更高的计算分辨率,在结合广义极值分析方法后,可以满足大型工程对气象评价的精细化需求。     

The influence of social movements on policies that constrain fossil fuel supply

Mounting evidence suggests that a large portion of the world's fossil fuel reserves will have to remain in the ground to prevent dangerous climate change. Yet, the fossil fuel industry continues to invest in new infrastructure to expand fuel supply. There appears to be a prevailing logic that extraction is inevitable, in spite of growing climate change concerns. Few political leaders seem to be willing to challenge this logic. The absence of adequate political action on climate change has sparked a burgeoning social movement focused on constraining fossil fuel supply. This article describes this movement, and explores the role that social mobilization may play in enabling policies that limit fossil fuel extraction. Drawing from literature on social mobilization and political change, this work: (1) discusses some of the social and political barriers to mobilization focused on restricting fossil fuel supply; (2) describes the pathways through which mobilization efforts may influence climate policy; and (3) highlights insights from studies of successful social movements that have relevance for the issue of fossil fuel extraction. The article concludes with directions for future research on social mobilization focused on supply-side climate policy.

Key policy insights

• Enacting policies to limit fossil fuel supply has proven challenging in many contexts.

• There is renewed interest in the role social movements may play in shifting the political landscape, to make it more likely that policies to restrict fossil fuel extraction may succeed.

• Effective social mobilization requires a combination factors aligning at the right time to influence policy outcomes, such as windows of political opportunity opening, and compelling framing that calls citizens to action.

• Critical examination of the factors that lead to movement success is necessary to understand the circumstances where social mobilization may influence supply-side climate policies.

     

地球失控增暖可能性的数值模拟

通过改变太阳常数引进强外辐射强迫的变化,利用NCAR气候系统模式CSM1.4,就气候系统对强外辐射强迫下的失控增暖效应进行了初步研究。结果表明:气候对于太阳常数分别增加2.5%、10%与增加25%的响应有所不同,即对于较小的强迫,气候系统的响应是线性的;而对于较大的强迫,响应很可能是非线性的。对于NCAR模式,如果强迫足够大,气候系统将会经历失控增暖。失控增暖的主要趋势并不是最初设想的正的水汽反馈增暖,至少在模式中,不只是“失控的温室效应”增暖,还有“失控的云反馈”增暖。     

构建一个经济-气候新模型评价气候变化对粮食产量的影响

将气候变化研究和农业经济研究相结合,构建了一个经济-气候新模型,用来评价全球气候变化对粮食产量影响的问题。提出在经济模型C-D生产函数中添加气候变化因子,建立一个新的评价模型,作为连接气候变化因素和经济变化因素的桥梁,并对该模型的性能及合理性进行了初步的模拟和验证。     

强度尺度分解方法在气候温度场检验中的应用

本文首次将Casati等提出的强度尺度分解方法应用到气候地表温度场的检验中,探讨此方法用于评估气候模拟场误差的详细空间信息的适用性。以新一代气候系统模式模拟的月平均地表温度为例,传统的统计分析方法（较为常用的是空间相关系数和均方根误差、EOF分析等）不能完全反映模拟场误差的空间信息;强度尺度分解方法可计算不同阈值和空间尺度上的均方误差和模拟技巧,评估对应的模拟能力,定量给出模拟场主要误差的空间信息（误差范围即温度阈值及对应的空间尺度）,例如,亚洲东部地区1月单年及多年平均的模拟场在230 K阈值1600 km模拟技巧非常低。本研究表明强度尺度分解方法适用于气候温度场的检验评估,能定量给出误差的空间信息。     

A technique for verification of weather forecast and climate simulation with fuzzy sets

In the light of the idea of fuzzy neartude, a fuzzy procedure of verifying weather forecast and climate simula-tion is demonstrated. Several verification indices used in weather forecast, such as hit ratio, Heidke score, Brier score, correlation coefficient and information entropy score, are unified under fuzzy neartude and a new verifica-tion index is proposed on the basis of Hamming distance neartude. Further, D2-statistics used in climate sim-ulation verification is derived from a weighted Euclidean distance neartude. The “January climate” generated by general circulation model (GCM) is also numerically verified.     

气候变化影响下我国农业经济评价问题探讨

年代际的全球变化预测及其区域适应 ,是一个属于自然科学和社会科学相互交叉领域的问题。作者将全球气候变化研究与经济学研究结合起来进行探索性思考 ,提出了气候变化与人类经济活动相互关系的研究领域中 4个有待探讨的问题 ,并重点针对其中气候变化对我国农业的影响 ,及气候变化影响下我国农业经济评价问题进行了探讨 ,同时初步讨论了经济评估的验证问题。     

A review on aspects of climate simulation assessment

This paper reviews some aspects of evaluation of climate simulation, including the ITCZ, the surface air temperature (SAT), and the monsoon. A brief introduction of some recently proposed approaches in weather forecast verification is followed by a discussion on their possible application to evaluation of climate simulation. The authors suggest five strategies to extend the forecast verification methods to climate simulation evaluation regardless significant differences between the forecasts and climate simulations. It is argued that resolution, convection scheme, stratocumulus cloud cover, among other processes in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the ocean-atmosphere feedback are the potential causes for the double ITCZ problem in coupled models and AGCM simulations, based on the system- and component-level evaluations as well as the downscaling strategies in some recent research. Evaluations of simulated SAT and monsoons suggest that both coupled models and AGCMs show good performance in representing the SAT evolution and its variability over the past century in terms of correlation and wavelet analysis but poor at reproducing rainfall, and in addition, the AGCM alone is not suitable for monsoon regions due to the lack of air-sea interactions.     

Climate change in fact and in theory: Are we collecting the facts?

For the past 100 years, a mostly volunteer group of observers has formed the backbone of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative (CO-OP) network. These stations have provided most of the observations used to satisfy the Department of Commerce's statutory mandate of 1890... to establish and record the climatic conditions of the United States (15 USCA 313). Originally, this network was intended primarily for agriculture, but many other uses of the data have since emerged, such as the climatic planning of weather sensitive activities, input to engineering design studies, and input and verification for weather and river forecasts. In recent years, heightened awareness regarding climatic change and variability has challenged this network with yet another mission: the monitoring and detection of climate change. While not designed for that mission, the CO-OP network has proved useful in this respect. However, with some changes in operation, it could become even more valuable in monitoring for climatic change, and could do so in a most economical way. Similar practices instituted worldwide will be necessary for comprehensive study of climate change to the degrees of detail necessary to address specific policy issues and practical local-scale decision making.     

具有门限的一种非线性随机-动力模式

提出一种附加门限控制的具有非线性反馈作用的随机-动力模式,从而对具有线性反馈的随机-动力气候模式加以改进。从理论上说,这种具有门限的随机气候模式可使气候系统内部反馈机制中的非线性特征更为明显,以便更加客观地模拟和预报短期的气候变化。