大型工程气候可行性论证中的空间分析方法与应用

当前大型工程项目的气候可行性论证需要更加精细的评估结论,以满足工程规划、设计和运营等气象防灾减灾的需要。利用1∶25万基础地理信息资料和气象部门在沿湖、沿江、沿海和内陆地区多个大型桥梁工程、核电工程、风电工程等大型工程项目气候可行性论证工作中积累的工程短期气象观测资料和邻近气象站同期同步观测资料、历史气候资料,探讨大型工程气候可行性论证的工程区气候要素极值计算方法和有效的空间插值计算方案,初步建立了基于空间信息分析方法的工程气候可行性论证和系统流程。实际应用表明：采用空间趋势面分析和空间相关分析、空间回归等分析手段的工程气候论证,考虑了项目周边地区气象要素的空间相关性和地形下垫面状况等地理信息,并且具有比常规论证手段更高的计算分辨率,在结合广义极值分析方法后,可以满足大型工程对气象评价的精细化需求。

Spatial analysis method and its application in climate feasibility demonstration of large-scale projects

The current climate feasibility demonstration report needs more precise assessment conclusions in order to meet the needs of the meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation for the large-scale projects in planning,design and operational phases.Base on the 1∶ 250000 basic geography information,the short-time meteorological observation data accumulated by the climate feasibility demonstration report of some projects such as a major bridge engineering,a nuclear power engineering,a wind power engineering and so on along the lake,river and sea and at inland area,simultaneously observational data and the historical climate data nearby weather stations,the calculation method of the extreme value of climate factors and the effective spatial interpolation scheme of projects were investigated.The meteorological evaluation method of projects and system workflow were established based on the spatial information analysis method.The application results indicate that the climate feasibility demonstration method based on a spatial trend analysis,a spatial correlation analysis and a spatial regression analysis etc.considers the geography information such as the spatial correlation of meteorological elements,topography and underlying surface and so on around the project area and it has a higher calculation resolution compared with the conventional method.Combining with a generalized extreme analysis method,the method could meet the fine needs of meteorological evaluation of a large project.