2010年青海玉树7.1级地震的前震识别及短临预报可能性研究

2010年4月14日青海玉树发生了7.1级地震,在震前2小时发生了一次4.7级前震。分析表明,玉树7.1级地震前一些主要的地震活动异常多有显示,例如空区、条带、增强和平静等,且与7级大震震例比较,这些前兆地震活动图像的演变具有类似的过程。跟踪这些图像及其演变有可能识别前震。最后评估了该识别方法的可信度。     

青海玉树7.1级地震异常及其思考

玉树7.1级地震前,青海南部—西藏东部大范围区域存在6级、5级及ML4级地震空区,主震前130 min发生了4.7级直接前震。2009年11月以来,青海境内又显现多项较为突出的前兆观测异常。总结认为这些异常应属玉树7.1级地震异常。尤其是多震级档地震空区配套出现,表明该区应力处于逐级闭锁状态,对大震孕育区域有很好的指示意义,可作为今后大震跟踪的重要依据。     

2010年玉树7．1级地震前后气温变化分析

利用距平方法分析了2010年青海玉树7．1级地震前后玉树及周边台的气温变化,结果表明,在玉树地震前,从2001年到2010年,气温存在一个长达10年的趋势上升变化,总升温幅度约1．7℃,地震后气温很快下降恢复到趋势上升前的水平。比较玉树气温与周边气温的变化过程,在玉树地震前后,玉树气温变化与周边气温变化存在明显的差异,初步分析认为玉树气温的异常变化与玉树地震孕育和发生存在一定的联系。     

玉树7.1级地震震情跟踪工作的总结分析

介绍了玉树7.1级地震震情跟踪过程中,数字地震观测资料的应用情况,发现数字地震资料的运用可以为震后趋势判定提供参考依据。     

2010年玉树7.1级地震趋势预测研究回顾

本文整理了自2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震至2010年4月14日玉树7.1级地震前, 年度地震趋势预测和日常会商中提出的地震活动和前兆异常及其分析意见。 结果表明, 玉树7.1级地震前存在一些较为明确的有关地震活动水平和危险区域判定的预测依据, 但由于玉树地区地震监测能力较弱, 缺乏较为可靠的中短期前兆异常, 因此未将该区划定为年度地震重点危险区, 仅在我国大陆地震形势预测和强震主体活动地区估计上有所涉及。 2010年青藏块体中东部地区强震危险性增强, 但由于玉树地区震前地震活动性异常以平静为主, 地震前兆数量也较少, 因此未能在玉树7.1级地震前形成短临预测意见。     

1988年以来青藏块体中部地区Ms7级以上地震相互触发作用研究

1988年至2001年,青藏块体中部的巴颜喀拉块体沿其北部边界的东昆仑断裂带连续发生了3次7级以上和1次8．1级地震。之后,在其西部边界于2008年发生了于田7．3级地震,东部边界的龙门山断裂带发生了2008年汶川8．0级地震,在南部边界的甘孜-玉树-风火山断裂带上发生了2010年玉树7．1级地震。对这一系列地震的震源机制解分析,结果表明,除西边界的于田7．3级地震为正断层性质、东边界的汶川8．0级地震为逆断层性质以外,其他断裂带上的地震性质均以走滑为主,总体表明巴颜喀拉块体具有向东走滑的特性。本文尝试根据构造相互作用和块体运移特征等对这几次地震进行相关分析。     

玉树7．1级地震前后波速比变化特征分析

利用玉树、曲玛莱、杂多地震台观测到的数字震相资料,研究玉树Ms7．1级地震前后波速比时间演化特征。研究发现：3个台站平均波速比、波速比标准偏差在地震前后变化不相同,Ms4．7级前震发生时3个台站波速比都出现较明显的高值回返现象,其中玉树地震台波速比数值高达2．032。     

关于云南丽江7级地震的中短期预报

总结了对 1 996年 2月 3日云南丽江 7级地震的中短期监视及跟踪预报过程 .根据川滇地区地震活动特征和可公度性计算结果 ,在该次地震前对地震大形势进行了预测 .1 995年 1 0月以后 ,滇西北地区出现了大面积、大幅度、多手段的同步异常 ,其中以水氡、水位和CO2 异常为主 ,沿中甸─南涧地震区分布较为集中 .根据上述异常特征及异常分布情况 ,作者在该次地震前 2个月向大理州政府提出了书面预报意见 ,认为 1 996年 2月底以前在中甸─丽江─剑川─华坪一带有可能发生 5～ 6级地震 .     

2010年4月14日玉树7.1级地震前异常特征及强震动力学关系探讨

系统地分析了2010年4月14日玉树7.1级地震的地震活动性异常、前兆异常以及震前动物反常行为.研究表明,玉树7.1级地震前异常并不丰富,但觉察到的异常突出.其中中长期异常有6级、5级和4级的平静区;前兆观测有玉树表层水温、德令哈表层水温和平安电磁波等显著异常;同时震前1周还存在数量较多的动物宏观异常现象;主震前130min发生了一次4.7级地震.结合1996年以来巴颜喀拉地块边界的强震震源机制解,探讨了玉树地震孕育的动力学过程.结果表明,1996年喀喇昆仑山口7.1级、1997年玛尼7.5级和2010年玉树7.1级地震是同一动力学过程下的强震事件,且中长期存在的不同震级档平静区演化可能与上述动力学过程有关.还对强震原地复发、前震识别和玉树地震中的前兆观测等科学问题进行了讨论.     

InSAR技术在青海地区地震中的应用研究

以近年来InSAR技术在地震灾害领域的应用研究为基础,综述了InSAR技术应用于青海地区的研究进展,并利用ALOS PALSAR数据和Sentinel-1A卫星数据对2010年玉树7.1级、2016年门源6.4级、杂多6.2级地震的InSAR数据进行了计算和分析。结果显示:玉树7.1级地震和门源6.4级地震地表形变比较明显。其中,玉树7.1级地震地表形变长轴达60 km,门源6.4级地震地表形变长轴达30 km,杂多6.2级地震地表形变比较模糊,长轴约10 km;干涉条纹与震级、震源深度以及震源机制解性质等都有着明显的相关性,不同性质的地震断层引起的地震破裂在干涉图上呈现出各自不同的特点。     

On the synchronism in the events within the core and on the surface of the earth: the changes in the organic world and in the polarity of the geomagnetic field in the phanerozoic

The data on geomagnetic reversals are compared with the changes in the organic world and with the lower-mantle plumes. The times of the formation of plumes and the times of their appearance on the Earth’s surface relate to the intervals characterized by the different frequencies of geomagnetic reversals, i.e., there is no interrelation between the formation of plumes and the frequency of the changes in the geomagnetic field polarity. At the same time, a certain synchronism is observed between the frequency of the geomagnetic reversals and the boundaries of the biostratigraphic ages, i.e., the changes in the organic world in the long-period range. A hypothesis is proposed, which explains the change in the sign of the geomagnetic field by the combined effect of the irregular rotation of the internal core relative to the mantle and the changes in the slope angle of the axis of the Earth’s rotation, which, in turn, results in synchronous events on the Earth’s surface: the rates of changes in the organic world.     

Comparison Between the Nutations of the Planet Mars and the Nutations of the Earth

The nutations of the planets Mars andEarth are investigated and compared. Alarge number of interior structureparameters are involved in the nutationcomputations. The comparison between the observations and the computationsprovides several constraints on these parmeters andtherefore allows a better understanding of the physics of the interior of theplanet. For the Earth, the high precision of the observations of the nutationshas led to a very good determination of interior properties of the planet. ForMars, observations of nutations are not yet available, and we review how theamplitude of the Martian nutations depends on the hypotheses consideredfor its interior. Although Mars is very similar to the Earth, its interior is not well known;for example, we don't knowif its core is liquid or solid. Only if the core is liquid,the Free Core Nutation (FCN) normal mode exists and can alter the nutationswhich are close to the resonance. From the observed geoids, it is known thatboth planets are not in hydrostatic equilibrium. The departure is larger forMars than for the Earth, and consequently, the implication of considering a convective mantle instead of a mantle in hydrostatic equilibrium described byClairaut's equation for the initial equilibrium state of the planet is largeron the Martian nutations than on the Earth nutations. The consequences of theuncertainty in the core dimensions are also examined and shown to be of a veryhigh influence for Mars if the core is liquid, due to the potential changes inthe FCN resonance. The influence of the presence of an inner core, which isknown to exist for the Earth, could be more important for Mars than for theEarth if the inner core is large. Due to the presence of Tharsis on Mars, thetriaxiality of this planet has, additionally, larger effects than on Earth.     

Estimation of the shortening rate since late Pleistocene in the Aksu area on the southern flank of the Tianshan, China

This research focused on the Aksu area in the central part of the southern Tianshan. Along the 60 km wide Aksu fold-and-thrust belt, active thrusts reach the surface and offset the youngest sediments. Our research was based on the geomorphologic study that examined the advance and retreat of glaciers cut by thrusts in the Tomur area in the north of Aksu. Our fieldwork revealed that two fault scarps were clearest across three different moraines that represent the maximum of advance of glaciers during three glacial periods along the Tailan River in the Tomur area. The measured heights of the fault scarps that cut the moraines, together with the moraines-inferred age, imply a shortening rate of 1.85 mm/a on the Aksu area since late Pleistocene. This rate, similar to that of the Korla area on its east side and of the Kaping area on its west side, but lower than that of the Kashgar area farther west and of the Manas area in the northern margin of the belt, implies that the distribution of shortening across the Tianshan changed markedly along the mountain.     

研究季风区历史时期湖泊环境演化的意义

本文首先讨论了历史时期季风区湖泊环境演化研究在古全球变化研究中的地位及其意义,着重强调人与自然相互作用研究以及进行定量研究是该领域的关键所在。综合中国近年来在湖泊沉积与古全球变化研究中取得的成果,提出在该领域研究的一些新的认识与亟待解决的问题。     

On the effect of oceanic tides on the inertial coupling between the liquid core and the mantle

The amplitudes and phases of forced nutation and diurnal earth tides depend significantly on the moment of forces between the liquid core and mantle of the Earth, resulting from the differential rotation of the core. The solution to the dynamic problem of rotation of an imperfectly elastic mantle with an imperfectly liquid core and an ocean indicates that the predominant role is played by the so-called core-mantle inertial coupling (related to the effect of hydrodynamic pressure in the liquid core on the ellipsoidal core-mantle boundary). The magnitude of this coupling depends significantly not only on the dynamic flattening of the liquid core but also on the elastic and inelastic properties of the mantle, as well as on the amplitudes and phases of oceanic tides. In this paper, the effects of oceanic tides on the magnitude of inertial coupling between the liquid core and the mantle and on the period and damping decrement of free nearly diurnal nutation are estimated.     

地球重力场时变性的研究进展

地球重力场是表征地球内部、表面或外部各点所受地球重力作用空间的物理属性.地球重力场不仅存在着空间变化而且存在着时间变化.从空间观测，地球重力场是地球系统质量分布的结果，质量在地球系统内的传输和变化将在地球重力场的变化中反映出来.重力场的时变有长期变化、季节性变化、不规则变化和其他多尺度的变化.本文主要介绍了时变的地球重力场领域近年来的研究进展，归纳和描述了引起地球重力场时变的主要因素.     

嘉峪关气氡映震情况讨论及玉门地震前水氡(嘉峪关,酒泉)异常特征

分析了1990年以来在祁连山断裂带上发生的7次地震前,嘉峪关气氡观测点和酒泉水氡的变化情况,发现在1990年10月20日天祝6．2级地震、1992年1月12日嘉峪关5．4级地震、1995年7月22日永登5．8级地震和2002年12月14日玉门5．9级地震前,嘉峪关气氡观测点均记录到短期的破年变异常,而酒泉水氡在玉门地震前为明显的突变型中期异常。     

Constraining the timing of the India-Asia continental collision by the sedimentary record

Placing precise constraints on the timing of the India-Asia continental collision is essential to understand the successive geological and geomorphological evolution of the orogenic belt as well as the uplift mechanism of the Tibetan Plateau and their effects on climate,environment and life.Based on the extensive study of the sedimentary record on both sides of the Yarlung-Zangbo suture zone in Tibet,we review here the present state of knowledge on the timing of collision onset,discuss its possible diachroneity along strike,and reconstruct the early structural and topographic evolution of the Himalayan collided range.We define continent-continent collision as the moment when the oceanic crust is completely consumed at one point where the two continental margins come into contact.We use two methods to constrain the timing of collision onset:(1) dating the provenance change from Indian to Asian recorded by deep-water turbidites near the suture zone,and(2) dating the age of unconformities on both sides of the suture zone.The first method allowed us to constrain precisely collision onset as middle Palaeocene(59±l Ma).Marine sedimentation persisted in the collisional zone for another 20-25 Ma locally in southern Tibet,and molassic-type deposition in the Indian foreland basin did not begin until another 10-15 Ma later.Available sedimentary evidence failed to firmly document any significant diachroneity of collision onset from the central Himalaya to the western Himalaya and Pakistan so far.Based on the Cenozoic stratigraphic record of the Tibetan Himalaya,four distinct stages can be identified in the early evolution of the Himalayan orogen:(1) middle Palaeocene-early Eocene earliest Eohimalayan stage(from 59 to 52 Ma):collision onset and filling of the deep-water trough along the suture zone while carbonate platform sedimentation persisted on the inner Indian margin;(2) early-middle Eocene early Eohimalayan stage(from 52 to 41 or 35 Ma):filling of intervening seaways and cessation of marine sedimentation;(3) late Eocene-Oligocene late Eohimalayan stage(from 41 to 25 Ma):huge gap in the sedimentary record both in the collision zone and in the Indian foreland;and(4) late Oligocene-early Miocene early Neohimalayan stage(from 26 to 17 Ma):rapid Himalayan growth and onset of molasse-type sedimentation in the Indian foreland basin.     

Exploring the Moon in the 21st century

Ian Crawford and Mahesh Anand report on a wide-ranging RAS Discussion Meeting on the future of lunar exploration, held in the Geological Society Lecture Theatre at Burlington House on Friday 11 November 2005.     

On the intensity of the geomagnetic field in the geological past

A detailed analysis of the data on the intensity of the geomagnetic dipole and frequency of its reversals presented in the world’s paleointensity databases provided the arguments in favor of the hypothesis of the negative correlation between the average virtual dipole moment (VDM) and the frequency of the reversals on the interval from 5 Ma to 100 Ma ago. However, the statistical confidence level of this hypothesis is only 60–70%, which is far below 95%, the standard required confidence level of a hypothesis to be considered statistically reliable. At a high level of confidence (above 99%), the presence of a positive correlation between the mean value and variance of VDM for a number of intervals of stable polarity in the Cenozoic and Mesozoic is confirmed. This finding means that the distribution of VDM on these time intervals is certainly non-Gaussian and is rather described by the gamma- or lognormal law. At the same time, in contrast to the earlier intervals, the histogram of VDM for the Brunhes epoch is closer to the normal distribution. Compared our conclusions with the published results on the numerical modeling of the geodynamo, we found that they are consistent in terms of a probable negative correlation between the average VDM and reversal frequency, as well as the lack of correlation between the average VDM and the length of the interval of stable polarity.