气候系统模式对于北极海冰模拟分析

利用全球耦合模式对比计划第五阶段(CMIP5)模拟试验的结果,并与观测资料对比分析,评估了CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟效果。结果表明:多数模式可以较好地模拟出北极海冰的空间分布以及季节变化特征。1979—2005年北极海冰迅速减少,所有模式均模拟出北极海冰减少的趋势,但减少趋势大小与观测差别较大。在全球变化的背景下,全球地表气温升高1℃,北极海冰的面积减少1.02×106km2,而在模式中减少的北极海冰面积在0.62×106—1.68×106km2之间,说明模式对于北极海冰的模拟仍然存在很多不确定性。     

海冰流变学方案对比模拟试验

利用美国麻省理工学院开发的数值模式MITgcm设计了区域冰·洋耦合数值模拟试验,开展了海冰动力学过程中两种流变学方案(黏性-塑性流变学和弹性-黏性-塑性流变学)的对比研究.结果表明,两种方案模拟的海冰内部应力张量分量σ<,11>和σ<,22>总体分布形式相近.冬季,大值区主要位于加拿大北极群岛和格陵兰岛北侧以及格陵兰岛...     

近30年北极海冰异常变化趋势

在过去30年间,北极气候发生了前所未有的异常变化,北极海冰变化更是经历了令人瞩目的、从平缓到突变的缩减过程,因此,北冰洋及其海冰的研究得到广泛的重视。综述当前国内外有关北极海冰快速变化的研究工作,对这些大气的现场观测和卫星遥感资料的分析,以及一些全球和区域气候模拟的结果,基本上一致地指出了近3O年来北极海冰的快速衰减趋势,尤其是夏季北极海冰正以每lO年超过10％的变化幅度快速减少。从海冰的基本物理特征、与大气海洋相互作用的物理过程、及其对全球和北极气候变化的响应和反馈机制,研究形成这种快速变化的因子--海表面气温增暖,太平洋与大西洋人流的热盐性质变化,以及大气环流模态的影响等。     

影响北极地区迅速变化的一些关键过程研究

最近研究证明 ,近半个世纪来 ,北极地区正在发生迅速变化。部分地区温度上升了 2- 3°C ,北冰洋海冰退缩 5 %,中心地区海冰厚度变薄 ,海面压力降低 ,中上层水淡化和变暖 ,吸收CO2 能力增加 ,臭氧耗损和紫外线辐射增强。中国于 1 999年开展了“中国首次北极科学考察” ,在楚科奇海、加拿大海盆、白令海以及临近海域开展了海冰气相互作用的多学科综合考察 ,对北极的区域特征及其在全球变化中的作用研究获得一些新的认识。观测到加拿大海盆中层水持续增暖的现象 ,揭示了西北冰洋与白令海水体交换的途径和次表层暖水结构 ,发现了加拿大海盆是北冰洋河水的主要储存区。利用联合冰站观测数据 ,模拟了北冰洋夏季大气边界层结构和下垫面能量平衡的变化特征 ,定量给出了北冰洋夏季海 /气和冰 /气之间湍流通量和边界层参数的差异。海 /气CO2 的通量观测表明 ,考察区的大部分海域均为大气CO2 汇区 ;西北冰洋海冰区具有较高的生物泵运转效率 ,楚科奇海陆架是一个高效的有机碳“汇”区 ,寒冷水体中微生物活动并未受到明显抑制。沉积物的地球化学过程研究表明 ,海底表层沉积物中碘含量存在着由低纬度到高纬度增加趋势 ,北极地区可能是碘的汇区 ,碘可作为极区古海洋中的地球化学元素变化的重要指标。楚科奇海、白令海     

中国第二次北极科学考察海冰物理数据的解释

2003年7-9月间,为了探讨北冰洋海冰变化同气候的关系,中国第二次北极科学考察对海冰物理及其相关的物理海洋、大气边界层进行系列合作观测。观测的冰形态、海洋和气象要素将用于确定调查期间大气海冰海洋之间的热力和动力交换。本次考察获得的冰物理性质方面的原始观测数据将在中国南北极考察网公布。为了方便各方人员使用这些数据,本文给出这套资料的描述和解释。     

加拿大北极群岛区域西北航道海冰冰情长期时空变化特征研究

加拿大北极群岛西北航道区域海冰冰情对西北航道的开通及航行安全有着显著的影响.本研究将西北航道分为南部、北部以及交汇区3个区域,利用美国国家冰雪中心Bootstrap海冰密集度数据和CryoSat-2、CS2SMOS观测以及高分辨率北极海洋-海冰耦合模型(AO-FVCOM)的海冰厚度数据对1978年11月—2017年12...     

两极海冰与青藏高原陆面物理过程“耦合”特征

为探讨南极、北极强信号区域海冰变化 ,青藏高原陆面热力状况与北半球大气环流及中国气候变异的遥相关特征以及“三极”因子间的“互反馈”机制 ,应用遥相关等统计方法研究了影响东亚以及中国区域气候变化特征前期“三极”强信号特征 ,探讨了两极海冰与高原陆面水热状况之间的“耦合”影响及其“互反馈”相关特征 ,比较了“三极”前期因子对中国夏季气候变异的贡献程度及其动力结构形成的影响特征 ,并从全球海 -陆 -气 -冰相关定性模型来认识全球气候变化与中国区域气候变异的形成机制。     

北极海冰密度变化分析及其对海冰厚度估算的影响

海冰密度是海冰和气候模型的重要物理变量,也是利用卫星测高数据估算海冰厚度的关键参数。目前各国北极科学考察虽开展了海冰物理观测,但对近期北极海冰密度现场观测资料的综合分析和挖掘应用不足。在此背景下,收集了近15年来北极海冰密度现场观测资料,分析北极海冰密度的变化特征;对海冰密度实测数据进行克里金插值,将插值结果输入静力平衡方程模型计算海冰厚度,探讨海冰密度对海冰厚度卫星测高反演的影响。结果表明, 2000—2015年北极海冰密度变化范围为750—950 kg·m–3,1—9月海冰密度总体上随月份变化呈减小的趋势;6—9月北极海冰密度随着纬度的增加而减少(75°N—90°N);通过对比分析表明,相较于使用海冰密度固定值参与估算海冰厚度,采用经现场观测数据空间插值后的海冰密度估算海冰厚度的结果更为准确。北极海冰密度现场观测资料的整理分析可为海冰与气候变化等进一步研究提供参考。     

北极海冰厚度的热力学和动力学影响因素研究评述

全球变化背景下,在过去的40年中,北极海冰范围快速减少,厚度显著变薄,同时多年冰向一年冰转化,这对区域乃至全球气候系统具有重要影响。海冰厚度作为气候变化的指示器,在大气-海冰-海洋之间的物质和能量交换过程中起着重要作用。本文通过综述国内外北极海冰厚度影响因子的研究进展,对影响北极海冰厚度的热力学和动力学过程进行了梳理和总结。在热力学方面,海冰厚度会受到大气-海冰和海冰-海洋两个界面处的热通量影响,其中,大气-海冰热力学过程的影响因素包括冰面特征、气温、水汽、降雨/降雪和云量等,主要通过海冰表面辐射收支和湍流热交换(感热和潜热)产生影响;而海冰-海洋界面处的热通量作为海冰厚度的重要影响因素,主要受太阳辐射对上层海洋的加热、风应力导致的垂向混合以及中低纬暖流输送的影响。在动力学方面,海冰厚度变化主要通过风和海流的共同驱动引起海冰输运和海冰的形变。大尺度环流异常也会通过大气-海冰-海洋相互作用对北极冰厚的热力学和动力学过程产生显著影响。     

基于Radarsat-2 SAR图像分类与HY-2微波辐射计反演获取北极海冰密集度的比较研究

在北极东北航道东西伯利亚海和楚科奇海交汇的关键区域,利用四景2012年北极夏季Radarsat-2 SAR海冰图像,通过图像分类提取了海冰密集度;同时采用NASA TEAM算法,基于海洋二号(HY-2)卫星扫描微波辐射计亮温数据反演了对应区域的海冰密集度;并引入美国冰雪数据中心(NSIDC)发布的SSMIS海冰密集度产品进行了对比研究。通过不同来源海冰密集度数据的分析发现HY-2、SAR和SSMIS的结果在4个研究区域上的分布趋势基本吻合;但在海冰边缘区,由SAR图像分类得到的海冰密集度高于HY-2和SSMIS的反演结果,说明了高分辨率的SAR图像在监测边缘区小尺寸浮冰上有优势。三种数据中,原始分辨率相同(25 km)的HY-2与SSMIS的结果最为相近,而HY-2同SAR的相关性与SAR同SSMIS的相关性一致。在冰边缘,HY-2的反演值偏低于SAR和SSMIS的结果,这是受该处较高水汽含量影响的结果,也是未来发展HY-2微波辐射计反演算法需要重点改进的地方。     

A coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model for 1-D and 3-D applications in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

Primary production in the Bering and Chukchi Seas is strongly influenced by the annual cycle of sea ice.Here pelagic and sea ice algal ecosystems coexist and interact with each other.Ecosystem modeling of sea ice associated phytoplankton blooms has been understudied compared to open water ecosystem model applications. This study introduces a general coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model with equations and parameters for 1-D and 3-D applications that is based on 1-D coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model development in the landfast ice in the Chukchi Sea and marginal ice zone of Bering Sea.The biological model includes both pelagic and sea ice algal habitats with 10 compartments:three phytoplankton(pelagic diatom,flagellates and ice algae:D,F,and Ai),three zooplankton(copepods,large zooplankton,and micro-zooplankton :ZS,ZL,ZP),three nutrients(nitrate+nitrite,ammonium,silicon: NO_3,NH_4,Si) and detritus(Det).The coupling of the biological models with physical ocean models is straightforward with just the addition of the advection and diffusion terms to the ecosystem model.The coupling with a multi-category sea ice model requires the same calculation of the sea ice ecosystem model in each ice thickness category and the redistribution between categories caused by both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing as in the physical model.Phytoplankton and ice algal self-shading effect is the sole feedback from the ecosystem model to the physical model.     

A coupled multi-category sea ice model and POM for Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea

An overview of the seasonal variation of sea-ice cover in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea is given.A coupled ice-ocean model,CECOM,has been developed to study the seasonal variation and associated ice-ocean processes.The sea-ice component of the model is a multi-category ice model in which mean concentration and thickness are expressed in terms of a thickness distribution function.Ten categories of ice thickness are specified in the model.Sea ice is coupled dynamically and thermo-dynamically to the Princeton Ocean Model.Selected results from the model including the seasonal variation of sea ice in Baffin Bay,the North Water polynya and ice growth and melt over the Labrador Shelf are presented.     

Contribution of a pathway through the Arctic Ocean to the recent reduction in the ice cover

The sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has been reducing and hit the low record in the summer of 2007.The anomaly was extremely large in the Pacific sector. The sea level height in the Bering Sea vs.the Greenland Sea has been analyzed and compared with the current meter data through the Bering Strait.A recent peak existed as a consequence of atmospheric circulation and is considered to contribute to inflow of the Pacific Water into the Arctic Basin.The timing of the Pacific Water inflow matched with the sea ice reduction in the Pacific sector and suggests a significant increase in heat flux.This component should be included in the model prediction for answering the question when the Arctic sea ice becomes a seasonal ice cover.     

The research of Polar sea ice and its role in climate change

As an important part of global climate system,the Polar sea ice is ef fecting on global climate changes through ocean surface radiation balance,mass balance,energy balance as well as the circulating of sea water temperature and salinity.Sea ice research has a centuries-old history.The many correlative sea ice projects were established through the extensive international cooperation d uring the period from the primary research of intensity and the bearing capacity of sea ice to the development of sea/ice/air coupled model.Based on these rese arches,the sea ice variety was combined with the global climate change.All res earch about sea ice includes:the physical properties and processes of sea ice a nd its snow cover,the ecosystem of sea ice regions,sea ice and upper snow albe do,mass balance of sea ice regions,sea ice and climate coupled model.The simu lation suggests that the both of the area and volume of polar sea ice would be r educed in next century.With the developing of the sea ice research,more scient ific issues are mentioned.Such as the interaction between sea ice and the other factors of global climate system,the seasonal and regional distribution of pol ar sea ice thickness,polar sea ice boundary and area variety trends,the growth and melt as well as their influencing factors,the role of the polynya and the sea/air interactions.We should give the best solutions to all of the issues in future sea ice studying.     

2010年夏季北极海冰数值预报试验

为保障我国第四次北极科学考察的顺利开展,于2010年6～8月开展了北极海冰预报预测服务。预报试验基于MITgcm （麻省理工学院通用环流模式）,以NCEP GFS（美国国家环境预测中心全球预报系统）资料为大气强迫,初始化分别使用美国冰雪中心SSM/I（专用微波成像仪）或德国不莱梅大学AMSR-E（地球观测系统先进微波扫描辐射计）北极海冰密集度卫星资料。对2010年6～8月预报结果的初步评估表明,预报结果同卫星观测资料比较一致。在发生快速海冰变化的太平洋扇区,预报结果优于惯性预报,表明模式具有较好的局地海冰数值预报能力。     

北极海冰消融情景下环北极国家利益争端的动态博弈建模技术

以气温升高为主要特征的全球气候变化,致使北极海冰持续融化,北极地区丰富的资源、便捷的航行通道、重要的战略地位以及军事价值逐渐凸显出来。北冰洋沿岸的美国、俄罗斯、加拿大、丹麦和挪威等国家纷纷加入到北极利益争夺的行列中。为模拟和评估环北极国家在利益追逐中的合作与冲突行为的演化,基于博弈论思想,构建了环北极五国博弈的动态争端模型,提出了物质收益、惩罚损失和名誉收益等三个机制,综合考虑了气候变化、物质收益、国家关系与国家威望、国际法律法规等因素对环北极五国行为的综合影响。针对当前环北极各国在北极问题上的合作与争端开展了动态博弈建模,并对北极海冰完全消融情景时环北极各国在多种不同合作模式下的争端情况进行了模拟预估与实验仿真。     

High resolution simulations of Arctic sea ice, 1979–1993

To evaluate improvements in modelling Arctic sea ice, we compare results from two regional models at 1/12° horizontal resolution. The first is a coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic Ocean, consisting of an ocean model (adapted from the Parallel Ocean Program, Los Alamos National Laboratory [LANL]) and the "old" sea ice model. The second model uses the same grid but consists of an improved "new" sea ice model (LANL/CICE) with a simple ocean mixed layer. Both models are forced with European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data for 1979–1993. A comparison of the two sea ice models focuses on the winter of 1987 to emphasize the internal ice stress and to minimize biases towards a particular Arctic climate regime. The "new" sea ice model gives improved ice deformation and drift fields. These improvements are associated at least in part with the multi-category representation of the ice thickness distribution and more realistic parameterization of the ice strength. Long, narrow features in ice divergence and shear fields resemble those observed in SAR imagery, except that their average width is overestimated, possibly due to insufficient horizontal resolution. We also compare the mean sea ice drift and its decadal variability in two "old" sea ice models at different horizontal resolutions: 18-km and 9-km. We find no significant change in ice drift between the two models, except in areas of significant ice-ocean interactions due to more realistic ocean currents and water mass properties in the 9-km model.     

Coordinated changes of sea ice over the Beaufort and Chukchi seas: regional and seasonal perspectives

One outstanding feature of the recent Arctic climate is the contrast of the changes of sea ice concentration and thickness between the Beaufort Sea and the Chukchi Sea. Since the Arctic Oscillation (AO) plays a critical role in driving Arctic sea ice changes and the Beaufort and Chukchi seas have been hypothesized as a region in which sea ice anomalies originate, we employed a coupled sea ice-ocean model and carried out simulations forced by the AO signal to examine sea ice changes in these regions, focusing on seasonality. With the AO phase transition from negative to positive, anticyclonic windstress weakens broadly in both winter and summer; however, the surface air temperature response shows remarkable seasonal dependence. Positive temperature anomalies spread over the entire domain in winter, while negative anomalies occur in the shelf seas in summer, although positive anomalies remain in the deep-water portion. The simulated sea ice concentration resembles the observed concentration. The strong seasonality of sea ice concentration changes suggests that accumulation of sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea and reduction in the Chukchi Sea are mainly produced in summer. Changes of ice thickness are robust through the seasonal cycle. Generally, sea ice dynamics play a critical role in creating the anomalous sea ice pattern and sea ice thermodynamics partially compensate the dynamically-driven changes. However, considerable seasonal differences occur.     

北极海冰与大气环流耦合主模态的时空特征分析

对1979—2009年月平均的CFSR（The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）海冰密集度（SIC）和海平面气压（SLP）资料进行多变量经验正交函数分解（MV—EOF）,得出耦合主模态,并通过对温度、位势高度和风场的回归分析,进一步探寻海冰与大气环流的关系,第一模态SLP的特征为北极涛动（AO）,SIC呈离散的正负中心分布但大体为东西反位相,AO正位相时,喀拉海、拉普捷夫海、东西伯利亚海和鄂霍次克海海冰减少,巴芬湾、波弗特海、楚科奇海和白令海海冰增加。耦合第二模态的SLP呈偶极子分布,负、正异常中心在巴伦支海和波弗特海,SIC在巴伦支海,弗拉姆海峡,格陵兰海,拉布拉多海和白令海,鄂霍次克海地区有正异常,在喀拉海、拉普捷夫海、东西伯利亚海、楚科齐海和波弗特海为负异常。耦合第三模态SLP在冰岛地区存在负异常中心,在拉普捷夫海地区有正异常中心,SIC在巴伦支海北部、弗拉姆海峡、格陵兰海为负异常,其余地区全为正异常。 对SLP和SIC分别进行EOF分解,并与耦合模态进行比较,SLP的EOF主模态的时空分布与耦合模态中SLP的时空分布十分相似,SIC的EOF模态的时空分布则与耦合模态中SIC的时空分布有较大差别,说明耦合模态对SIC的分布影响较大,即大气环流对海冰分布的影响为主要的过程,海冰对大尺度的大气环流的模态的影响不明显。     

利用高支链类异戊二烯(HBIs)重建极地海冰的研究进展

海冰的准确重建对反演气候和环境变化具有重要意义。近期研究表明,有机指标高支链类异戊二烯(HBIs)具有重建极地海冰状况的潜质,海洋沉积物中具有海冰特异性的单烯HBI(IP_(25))和双烯HBI(IPSO_(25))指标已分别成为研究北极和南极海冰变化的有力工具。本文综述了IP_(25)、IPSO_(25)的提出和验证,分析了影响HBIs生成、迁移和埋藏的诸多因素,总结了为实现精细化区分海冰状况和定量化重建海冰密集度而提出的新指标的发展及应用,并就目前存在的问题和未来研究方向进行了探讨和展望。