Volume expansion rates of seismic landslides and influencing factors: A case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

When a big landside occurs, source material can change into loose deposit during its runout, causing the increase of the total landslide volume to some extent. Such changes can influence the quantification of seismic landslides. The objective of this paper was to study the volume expansion rate of landslides based on the data of 1417 co-seismic landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan, China Mw 7.9 earthquake. We also analyzed the correlations between this rate and landslide geometric parameters(volume, height(H), length-width ratio(L/W), length-height ratio(L/H)), and environmental factors(peak ground acceleration(PGA), lithology, slope angle and aspect). The results show that the total source volume of the 1417 landslides is 1248 million m3, while the total volume of the deposit is 1501 million m3, which means the total volume expanding rate(Et) is 20.3% with the average volume expansion rate(Ea) 22.6%. The analysis indicates that volume expansion rate generally decreases with the increasing volume and height of landslides, while becoming larger with increasing L/H and L/W. Besides, the volume expansion rate is closely related to the landslide type and the volume scale of landslides. This study analyses volume change of co-seismic landslides deeply, permitting to help the correct quantification of the source volume and deposit volume of seismic landslide and a useful reference for the correct quantification of landslide volume.     

Spatial distribution of large-scale landslides induced by the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake

The 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 induced hundreds of large-scale landslides. This paper systematically analyzes 112 large-scale landslides (surface area > 50000 m2), which were identified by interpretation of remote sensing imagery and field investigations. The analysis suggests that the distribution of large-scale landslides is affected by the following four factors: (a) distance effect: 80% of studied large-scale landslides are located within a distance of 5 km from the seismic faults. The farther the distance to the faults, the lower the number of large-scale landslides; (b) locked segment effect: the large-scale landslides are mainly located in five concentration zones closely related with the crossing, staggering and transfer sections between one seismic fault section and the next one, as well as the end of the NE fault section. The zone with the highest concentration was the Hongbai-Chaping segment, where a great number of large-scale landslides including the two largest landslides were located. The second highest concentration of large-scale landslides was observed in the Nanba-Donghekou segment at the end of NE fault, where the Donghekou landslide and the Woqian landslide occurred; (c) Hanging wall effect: about 70% of the large-scale landslides occurred on the hanging wall of the seismic faults; and (d) direction effect: in valleys perpendicular to the seismic faults, the density of large-scale landslides on the slopes facing the seismic wave is obviously higher than that on the slopes dipping in the same direction as the direction of propagation of the seismic wave. Meanwhile, it is found that the sliding and moving directions of large-scale landslides are related to the staggering direction of the faults in each section. In Qingchuan County where the main fault activity was horizontal twisting and staggering, a considerable number of landslides showed the feature of sliding and moving in NE direction which coincides with the staggering direction of the seismic faults.     

Spatial association between landslides and environmental factors over Guizhou Karst Plateau,China

Guizhou Karst Plateau is located at the center of the karst region in Asia, where landslides are a typical disaster. Affected by the local karst environment, the landslides in this region have their own characteristics. In this study, 3975 landslide records from inventories of the Guizhou karst plateau are studied. The geographical detector method is used to detect the dominant casual factor and predominant multi-factor combinations for the local landslides. The results show that landslides are prone to areas on slopes between 10° and 35°, of clay rock, in close proximity to gullies, and especially in areas of moderate vegetation, dryland, and mild rocky desertification. Continuous precipitation over 10 days has a great effect on landslide occurrence. Compared with the individual factors, the impact of two-factor interaction has greater explanatory power for landslide volume. The volume of earthquake-induced landslides is predominantly controlled by the interactions of faults and slopes, while that of humaninduced landslides is affected by the interactions of land cover and hydrological conditions. For rainfallinduced landslides, the dominant interactions vary in different regions. In the central karst basin, the interactions between faults and precipitation can explain over 90% of the variations in landslide volumes. In the southern hilly karst region, the interactions between lithology and slope can explain over 71% of the variations in landslide volume and those between fault and land-use can explain 50% of the variations of the landslide volumes in the northeastern mountainous karst region.     

Characteristics of earthquake-triggered landslides and post-earthquake debris flows in Beichuan County

Field investigations and aerial photography after the earthquake of May 12,2008 show a large number of geo-hazards in the zone of extreme earthquake effects.In particular,landslides and debris flows,the geo-hazards that most threaten post-disaster reconstruction,are widely distributed.We describe the characteristics of these geo-hazards in Beichuan County using high-resolution remote sensing of landslide distribution,and the relationships between the area and volume of landslides and the peak-discharges of debris flows both pre-and post-earthquake.The results show:1) The concentration(defined as the number of landslide sources per unit area:Lc) of earthquaketriggered landslides is inversely correlated with distance from the earthquake(DF) fault.The relationship is described by the following equation:Lc = 3.2264exp(-0.0831DF)(R2 = 0.9246);2) 87 % of the earthquake-triggered landslides were less than 15×104 m2 in area,and these accounted only for 50% of the total area;84% of the landslide volumes were less than 60×104 m3,and these accounted only for 50% of the total volume.The probability densities of the area and volume distributions are correlated:landslide abundance increases with landslide area and volume up to maximum values of 5 × 104 m2 and 30 × 104 m3,respectively,and then decreases exponentially.3) The area(AL) and volume(VL) of earthquake-triggered landslides are correlated as described with the following equation:VL=6.5138AL1.0227(R2 = 0.9131);4) Characteristics of the debris flows changed after the earthquake because of the large amount of landslide material deposited in the gullies.Consequently,debris flow peak-discharge increased following the earthquake as described with the following equation:Vpost = 0.8421Vpre1.0972(R2 = 0.9821)(Vpre is the peak discharge of pre-earthquake flows and the Vpost is the peak discharge of post-earthquake flows).We obtained the distribution of the landslides based on the above analyses,as well as the magnitude of both the landslides and the post-earthquake debris flows.The results can be useful for guiding post-disaster reconstruction and recovery efforts,and for the future mitigation of these geo-hazards.However,the equations presented are not recommended for use in site-specific designs.Rather,we recommend their use for mapping regional seismic landslide hazards or for the preliminary,rapid screening of sites.     

Size distribution of submarine landslides along the middle continental slope of the East China Sea

This paper investigates the size distribution of submarine landslides on the middle continental slope of the East China Sea (ECS) using the size of the landslide source regions. Geomorphometric mapping is used to identify 102 mass movements from multibeam bathymetric data and to extract morphological information about the head scarps and side walls. These mass movements have areas ranging between 0.06 km² and 15.51 km² and volumes between 0.002 km³ and 2 km³. The area vs volume relationship of these failure scarps is approximately linear, suggesting a fairly uniform failure thickness in each event with scarce deep excavating landslides. The cumulative area distribution of the slope failures can be described by an inverse power law. The submarine landslides on the mid-ECS continental slope could be considered as a large-scale self-organizing system because they have the characteristics of a dissipative system in a critical state.     

基于GEE和U-net模型的同震滑坡识别方法

地震滑坡解译是震后重建的重要基础工作,主要通过室内人工遥感解译和室外野外调查确定。地震滑坡相比其他地物来说更为复杂,很难通过简单指数识别。室内遥感解译通过滑坡后壁、侧壁和堆积等纹理特征进行识别,大面积同震滑坡解译工作往往耗费大量人力和物力,且耗时长,难以满足灾害应急需求。本研究利用U-net神经网络模型,结合Google Earth Engine（GEE）云平台和人工智能学习平台Tensorflow,以地震局解译的汶川滑坡作为样本数据,以震后30 m分辨率的Landsat影像、高程、坡度以及NDVI数据作为模型输入参数,自动识别并获取了汶川地震后的同震滑坡数据,同时比较了不同参数组合情况下U-net神经网络模型的分割识别精度。研究表明：① U-net模型可以用于以Landsat影像为基础数据的同震滑坡快速自动识别;② 随着高程、坡度以及NDVI等输入参数增加,模型分割精度在逐渐提高,但假阳性结果也会出现增多,震后滑坡影像+高程+坡度+NDVI的输入参数组合精度最高;③ 在细节上,模型在多参数组合的情况下,大型滑坡能够很好被识别,一些较小型的滑坡受制于影像分辨率的影响,分割精度较差。为了更好识别小型滑坡,后续研究可能需提高影像的分辨率。此外,GEE云平台大大提高了训练样本获取的效率,为科研人员快速进行基于神经网络与遥感数据的地物识别研究提供了条件。     

Seismogenic fault and topography control on the spatial patterns of landslides triggered by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake

Jiuzhaigou National Park, located in northwest plateau of Sichuan Province, is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and one of the most popular scenic areas in China. On August 8, 2017, a Mw 6.5 earthquake occurred 5 km to the west of a major scenic area, causing 25 deaths and injuring 525, and the Park was seriously affected. The objective of this study was to explore the controls of seismogenic fault and topographic factors on the spatial patterns of these landslides. Immediately after the main shock, field survey, remote-sensing investigations, and statistical and spatial analysis were undertaken. At least 2212 earthquake-triggered landslides were identified, covering a total area of 11.8 km~2. Thesewere mainly shallow landslides and rock falls. Results demonstrated that landslides exhibited a close spatial correlation with seismogenic faults. More than 85% of the landslides occurred at 2200 to 3700 m elevations. The largest quantity of landslides was recorded in places with local topographic reliefs ranging from 200 to 500 m. Slopes in the range of ~20°-50° are the most susceptible to failure. Landslides occurred mostly on slopes facing east-northeast(ENE), east(E), east-southeast(ESE), and southeast(SE), which were nearly vertical to the orientation of the seismogenic fault slip. The back-slope direction and thin ridge amplification effects were documented. These results provide insights on the control of the spatial pattern of earthquake-triggered landslides modified by the synergetic effect of seismogenic faults and topography.     

Landslide susceptibility assessment of the region affected by the 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake of Nepal

Nepal was hit by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on 25^th April, 2015. The main shock and many large aftershocks generated a large number of coseismic landslips in central Nepal. We have developed a landslide susceptibility map of the affected region based on the coseismic landslides collected from remotely sensed data and fieldwork, using bivariate statistical model with different landslide causative factors. From the investigation, it is observed that most of the coseismic landslides are independent of previous landslides. Out of 3,716 mapped landslides, we used 80% of them to develop a susceptibility map and the remaining 20% were taken for validating the model. A total of 11 different landslide-influencing parameters were considered. These include slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, elevation, relative relief, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), distance from epicenters of the mainshock and major aftershocks, lithology, distance of the landslide from the fault, fold, and drainage line. The success rate of 87.66% and the prediction rate of 86.87% indicate that the model is in good agreement between the developed susceptibility map and the existing landslides data. PGA, lithology, slope angle and elevation have played a major role in triggering the coseismic mass movements. This susceptibility map can be used for relocating the people in the affected regions as well as for future land development.     

Characteristics of landslide in Koshi River Basin,Central Himalaya

Koshi River basin, which lies in the Central Himalayas with an area of 71,500 km2, is an important trans-boundary river basin shared by China, Nepal and India. Yet, landslide-prone areas are all located in China and Nepal, imposing alarming risks of widespread damages to property and loss of human life in both countries. Against this backdrop, this research, by utilizing remote sensing images and topographic maps, has identified a total number of 6877 landslides for the past 23 years and further examined their distribution, characteristics and causes. Analysis shows that the two-step topography in the Himalayan region has a considerable effect on the distribution of landslides in this area. Dense distribution of landslides falls into two regions: the Lesser Himalaya(mostly small and medium size landslides in east-west direction) and the TransitionBelt(mostly large and medium size landslides along the river in north-south direction). Landslides decrease against the elevation while the southern slopes of the Himalayas have more landslides than its northern side. Change analysis was carried out by comparing landslide distribution data of 1992, 2010 and 2015 in the Koshi River basin. The rainfallinduced landslides, usually small and shallow and occurring more frequently in regions with an elevation lower than 1000 m, are common in the south and south-east slopes due to heavy precipitation in the region, and are more prone to the slope gradient of 20°~30°. Most of them are distributed in Proterozoic stratum(Pt3ε, Pt3 and Pt2-3) and Quaternary stratum. While for earthquake-induced landslides, they are more prone to higher elevations(2000~3000 m) and steeper slopes(40°~50°).     

Long-term activity of earthquake-induced landslides: A case study from Qionghai Lake Basin,Southwest of China

Earthquake-triggered landslides are a major geological hazard in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, and have prolonged impact on earth surface processes and fluvial system. To determine how long co-seismic landslides affect basins, a massive number of landslides existing in Qionghai Lake Basin were investigated for landslide distribution characteristics and geomorphological evidences, with further comparison and analysis using historic seismic analog method. The landslides found in Qionghai Lake Basin showed clear features of seismic triggering with strongly controlled by Zemuhe fault. These landslides are still active at present. Some new slides generally occur in ancient slope failure zones causing serious secondary hazards in recent years. In this study we strengthen the idea that the landslides triggered by the 185o Xichang earthquake （Ms7.5） have long term activity and prolonged impact on the mountain disasters with a period of more than 16o years. Our results support growing evidence that coseismic landslides have a prolonged effect on secondary disasters in a basin, and invite more careful consideration of the relationship between current basin condition and landslide history for a longer period.     

Earthquake-triggered landslides affecting a UNESCO Natural Site: the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake in the World National Park,China

On August 8~(th), 2017, an Ms 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County, northern Sichuan Province, China. The Jiuzhaigou Valley World National Park was the most affected area due to the epicentre being located in the scenic area of the park. Understanding the distribution characteristics of landslides triggered by earthquakes to help protect the natural heritage sites in Jiuzhaigou Valley remains a scientific challenge. In this study, a relatively complete inventory of the coseismic landslides triggered by the earthquake was compiled through the interpretation of high-resolution images combined with a field investigation. The results indicate thatcoseismic landslides not only are concentrated in Rize Gulley, Danzu Gully and Zezhawa Gully in the study area but also occur in the front part of Shuzheng Gully along the road network(from the entrance of Jiuzhaigou Valley to Heye Village). The landslides predominantly occur on the east-and southeastfacing slopes in the study area, which is a result of the integrated action of the valley direction and fault movement direction. The back-slope effect and the slope structure caused the difference in coseismic landslide distribution within the three gullies(Danzu Gully, Rize Gully, and Zezhawa Gully) near the inferred fault. In addition, the topographic position index was used to analyse the impact of microlandforms on earthquake-triggered landslides by considering the effect of the slope angle. The study results reveal a higher concentration of landslides in the slope position class of the middle slope(30°-50°) in Jiuzhaigou Valley. These findings can provide scientific guidance for the protection of natural heritage sites and post-disaster reconstruction in Jiuzhaigou Valley.     

Insights into a giant landslide-prone area on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,China

A good understanding of giant landslide-prone areas could greatly enhance the understanding of the formation and failure mechanisms of giant landslides.In this study,a classic giant landslide-prone area named the Diexi area located along the upstream stretch of the Minjiang River on the eastern Tibetan Plateau is adopted to analyze the failure mechanism and evolution process by detailed field investigations,Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)images and a digital surface model(DSM).The results show that among the 37 giant landslides located in the Diexi area,18 landslides are transverse landslides(wedge failure),and the others are consequent landslides(buckling failure).All landslides blocked rivers,and some barrier lakes still remain.The Diexi area features special geological structural conditions related to the hinge section of the Jiaochang arc tectonic belt,the intersection of two active fault zones(the Songpinggou and Minjiang fault zones)and high levels of geostress.The numerous radial fissures induced by the Jiaochang arcuate belt provided lateral sliding boundaries for buckling deformation(consequent landslides)and head scarps for wedge failure(transverse landslides).The rapid incision(1.88 mm/yr)since the middle Pleistocene formed a deep gorge with steep slopes and strong lateral unloading.Frequent earthquakes and rainfall further reduced the rock mass integrity,and strong earthquakes or other factors triggered the landslides.     

Activity evolution of landslides and debris flows after the Wenchuan earthquake in the Qipan catchment,Southwest China

The Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 induced numerous landslides. Loose landslide materials were deposited on hillslopes, and deep channels were easily remobilized and transformed into debris flows by extreme rainstorms. Twelve years after the Wenchuan earthquake, debris flows were still active in the Qipangou Ravine in the quake-hit area. In this paper, we continuously tracked the spatiotemporal evolution of the landslides and vegetation restoration and evaluated the evolution of debris flow activity in the Qipan catchment with the aid of a GIS platform and field investigations from 2008 to 2019. We observed that the area with active landslides increased sharply immediately following the earthquake, and then decreased with time; however, the total area of landslides continued to increase from 6.93 km2 in 2008 to 10.55 km2 in 2019. The active landslides shifted towards lower angles and higher elevations after 2013. Since 2009, the vegetation coverage has been gradually increasing and approaching the coverage present before the earthquake as of 2019. The landslide activity was high and the vegetation recovery rates were rapidly rising during the first five years after the earthquake; the recovery rates then slowed over time. Therefore, we divided the evolution that occurred during the post landslide period into an active period(2008-2013), a self-adjustment period(2013-2026) and a stable period(after 2026). We then proposed a quantitative model to determine the trends of landslide activity rates and NDVI values in the catchment, which indicated that the landslide activities and postseismic vegetation restoration rates in this catchment will return to preseismic levels within approximately two decades. We also analysed the runout volumes of the debris flows after the earthquakes(Diexi and Wenchuan) and the standard deviation of the vegetation coverage and predicted that the debris flow activities will last for an additional 50 years or more.     

三峡库首区滑坡空间分布特征分析及危险性评价

采用遥感和GIS技术从宏观上对三峡库首区三峡工程二期、三期治理滑坡和新增滑坡的空间分布与地形地貌、地层岩性、断裂构造、水系流域和人为影响等因素的相关程度进行分析,获取孕灾环境特征规则,并对其危险性进行评价。结果表明,地形因子中的高程、坡向和高程变异系数与滑坡的相关性较高;研究区内断裂构造对滑坡发育的控制作用不明显;研究区滑坡体的空间分布受到不同因子组合的约束,可根据不同因子组合约束的权重对研究区滑坡危险性进行评价。     

基于模型试验的动水驱动型顺层岩质滑坡启滑机制初探

动水驱动型顺层岩质滑坡数量多、灾害频发、危害大, 是滑坡地质灾害领域的研究重点, 但目前对于滑坡启滑机制的认识仍不充分, 滑坡的准确预报还面临巨大挑战。鉴于此, 以含软弱夹层的中倾角顺层岩质滑坡为研究对象, 通过构建理想的单层滑带滑坡物理模型, 开展了一系列动水作用下的滑坡模型试验研究。结果表明, 动水作用下顺层岩质滑坡从开始变形至失稳滑动需经历初始变形、缓慢变形、加速变形和失稳破坏4个阶段, 而各个阶段的演化特征与滑面粗糙度和倾角密切相关。滑面倾角越大或粗糙度越小, 滑坡体从开始变形至失稳滑动所需的时间则越短; 相应地, 坡体加速变形阶段越不明显, 滑坡破坏的突发性越强。滑带内的渗流冲蚀作用会使滑带土中的骨料流失, 导致其抗剪强度降低, 进而引发坡体滑动。与此同时, 上覆坡体的压剪作用以及变形演化过程亦将反过来影响冲蚀强度。基于滑带土黏聚力随水力梯度和冲蚀时间的变化关系, 提出了渗流驱动下滑带土黏聚力演化模型, 可较好地描述滑带土黏聚力的退化过程。滑面粗糙度的存在不仅显著影响了滑带的冲蚀劣化规律, 还改变了滑带不同区域的破坏模式。此外, 通过考虑滑面粗糙度对滑带不同区域破坏模式的影响, 开展了动水多效应关联分析, 建立了滑坡地质体力学分析模型, 实现了动水作用下顺层岩质滑坡动态稳定性的有效评估。本研究成果可为实际动水驱动型顺层岩质滑坡的预测和防治提供理论参考。      

铜川市缓动式低速滑坡的滑移动力学机理

铜川市区发育有为数甚多的缓动式低速滑坡。本文探讨了此类滑坡的滑移动力学机理。研究认为,由于滑面的峰—残微差效应、滑面动静摩擦阻力相近效应和滑带塑性蠕变耗能效应的综合作用,滑坡启动呈现缓动性;滑体低能效应、滑体低推力效应、滑带(面)强度自行恢复效应和滑体自行消能效应的叠加作用,导致滑坡以低速运移。     

Submarine landslides on the north continental slope of the South China Sea

Recent and paleo-submarine landslides are widely distributed within strata in deep-water areas along continental slopes, uplifts, and carbonate platforms on the north continental margin of the South China Sea (SCS). In this paper, high-resolution 3D seismic data and multibeam data based on seismic sedimentology and geomorphology are employed to assist in identifying submarine landslides. In addition, deposition models are proposed that are based on specific geological structures and features, and which illustrate the local stress field over entire submarine landslides in deep-water areas of the SCS. The SCS is one of the largest fluvial sediment sinks in enclosed or semi-enclosed marginal seas worldwide. It therefore provides a set of preconditions for the formation of submarine landslides, including rapid sediment accumulation, formation of gas hydrates, and fluid overpressure. A new concept involving temporal and spatial analyses is tested to construct a relationship between submarine landslides and different time scale trigger mechanisms, and three mechanisms are discussed in the context of spatial scale and temporal frequency: evolution of slope gradient and overpressure, global environmental changes, and tectonic events. Submarine landslides that are triggered by tectonic events are the largest but occur less frequently, while submarine landslides triggered by the combination of slope gradient and over-pressure evolution are the smallest but most frequently occurring events. In summary, analysis shows that the formation of submarine landslides is a complex process involving the operation of different factors on various time scales.     

Rapid susceptibility mapping of co-seismic landslides triggered by the 2013 Lushan Earthquake using the regression model developed for the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

The primary objective of landslide susceptibility mapping is the prediction of potential landslides in landslide-prone areas.The predictive power of a landslide susceptibility mapping model could be tested in an adjacent area of similar geoenvironmental conditions to find out the reliability.Both the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the 2013 Lushan Earthquake occurred in the Longmen Mountain seismic zone,with similar topographical and geological conditions.The two earthquakes are both featured by thrust fault and similar seismic mechanism.This paper adopted the susceptibility mapping model of co-seismic landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake to predict the spatial distribution of landslides induced by Lushan earthquake.Six influencing parameters were taken into consideration: distance from the seismic fault,slope gradient,lithology,distance from drainage,elevation and Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA).The preliminary results suggested that the zones with high susceptibility of coseismic landslides were mainly distributed in the mountainous areas of Lushan,Baoxing and Tianquan counties.The co-seismic landslide susceptibility map was completed in two days after the quake and sent to the field investigators to provide guidance for rescue and relief work.The predictive power of the susceptibility map was validated by ROC curve analysis method using 2037 co-seismic landslides in the epicenter area.The AUC value of 0.710 indicated that the susceptibility model derived from Wenchuan Earthquake landslides showed good accuracy in predicting the landslides triggered by Lushan earthquake.     

Co-seismic landslide inventory and susceptibility mapping in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake disaster area, China

The Ms 8.0 May 12,2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered tens of thousands of landslides.The widespread landslides have caused serious casualties and property losses,and posed a great threat to post-earthquake reconstruction.A spatial database,inventoried 43,842 landslides with a total area of 632 km 2,was developed by interpretation of multi-resolution remote sensing images.The landslides can be classified into three categories:swallow,disrupted slides and falls;deep-seated slides and falls,and rock avalanches.The correlation between landslides distribution and the influencing parameters including distance from co-seismic fault,lithology,slope gradient,elevation,peak ground acceleration(PGA) and distance from drainage were analyzed.The distance from co-seismic fault was the most significant parameter followed by slope gradient and PGA was the least significant one.A logistic regression model combined with bivariate statistical analysis(BSA) was adopted for landslide susceptibility mapping.The study area was classified into five categories of landslide susceptibility:very low,low,medium,high and very high.92.0% of the study area belongs to low and very low categories with corresponding 9.0% of the total inventoried landslides.Medium susceptible zones make up 4.2% of the area with 17.7% of the total landslides.The rest of the area was classified into high and very high categories,which makes up 3.9% of the area with corresponding 73.3% of the total landslides.Although the susceptibility map can reveal the likelihood of future landslides and debris flows,and it is helpful for the rebuilding process and future zoning issues.     

台风-非台风降雨型滑坡的多时段临界雨量值预测模型

统计确定临界降雨量是滑坡早期预警常用的方法。东南沿海地区台风暴雨不同于一般降雨, 常引发滑坡灾害, 从而威胁沿海地区人民生命财产安全。为了建立台风和非台风降雨型滑坡临界降雨量预测模型, 以浙江丽水市为例, 基于2010-2020年台风暴雨、非台风降雨诱发滑坡与降雨量的统计, 构建了丽水市滑坡发生概率和有效降雨量的关系, 提出了多时长临界降雨量预测模型, 并开展了台风和非台风降雨型滑坡预测模型结果的对比分析。结果表明, 非台风降雨与台风暴雨之间雨型和雨量差异是导致丽水市内2类降雨滑坡预测模型差异的主要原因; 以多时长预测模型确定的临界雨量值法和有效降雨天数更加符合丽水市降雨型滑坡的预测预报, 且预测精度相比于传统相关性分析法更高。研究成果对于开发区域降雨型滑坡预测模型具有理论意义, 对我国东南沿海地区汛期滑坡早期预警具有重要实际意义。