| 台风-非台风降雨型滑坡的多时段临界雨量值预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 栗倩倩,史绪山,柴波,王伟.台风-非台风降雨型滑坡的多时段临界雨量值预测模型[J].地质科技通报,2022,41(2):267-273. |
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| 作者姓名： | 栗倩倩 史绪山 柴波 王伟 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41702304国家自然科学基金项目41877253 |
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| 摘 要： | 统计确定临界降雨量是滑坡早期预警常用的方法。东南沿海地区台风暴雨不同于一般降雨, 常引发滑坡灾害, 从而威胁沿海地区人民生命财产安全。为了建立台风和非台风降雨型滑坡临界降雨量预测模型, 以浙江丽水市为例, 基于2010-2020年台风暴雨、非台风降雨诱发滑坡与降雨量的统计, 构建了丽水市滑坡发生概率和有效降雨量的关系, 提出了多时长临界降雨量预测模型, 并开展了台风和非台风降雨型滑坡预测模型结果的对比分析。结果表明, 非台风降雨与台风暴雨之间雨型和雨量差异是导致丽水市内2类降雨滑坡预测模型差异的主要原因; 以多时长预测模型确定的临界雨量值法和有效降雨天数更加符合丽水市降雨型滑坡的预测预报, 且预测精度相比于传统相关性分析法更高。研究成果对于开发区域降雨型滑坡预测模型具有理论意义, 对我国东南沿海地区汛期滑坡早期预警具有重要实际意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 降雨型滑坡 台风 滑坡预测模型 多时段临界降雨量 有效降雨 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-05-08 |
Multiduration critical rainfall prediction model for typhoons and non-typhoon rainfall landslides |
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| Abstract: | The statistical determination of critical rainfall is a commonly used method for the early warning of landslides. The typhoon rainstorm in southeast coastal areas is different from the general rainfall, and often cause landslide disasters, thus threatening the safety of people's property in coastal, in order to establish the critical rainfall prediction model of typhoon and nontyphoon rainfall landslides, taking Lishui City, Zhejiang Province, as an example, based on the statistics of both rainstorm and nontyphoon-included landslides and rainfall during 2010-2020. The relationship between the occurrence probability of landslides and effective rainfall in Lishui City was constructed. A multiduration critical rainfall prediction model was proposed, and the results of typhoon and nontyphoon prainfall landslide prediction models were compared and analysed. The results show that the difference in rainfall type and rainfall between nontyphoon rainfall and typhoon rainstorms is the main reason for the difference in the two types of prediction models in Lishui City. The critical rainfall value method and effective rainfall days determined by the multiduration prediction model are more consistent with the prediction of rainfall landslides in Lishui City, and the prediction accuracy is higher than that of the traditional correlation analysis method.The research results have theoretical significance for the development of the regional rainfall-induced landslide predictive model, and have important practical significance for the early warning of the flood season landslides in the southeastern coastal areas of my country. |
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